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00:00A lot of football to get into here as week number six kicks
00:04off tonight in the Pacific Northwest. A divisional duel in
00:08the NFC West between the Seahawks and the 49ers. San
00:12Francisco a Super Bowl favorite before the year got underway
00:16off to a sub 500 start. Does that change tonight? But DRS,
00:21we did just show you some news around the NFL as everybody is
00:24back on the practice field getting ready for their week
00:28six contest for the Steelers. That's out in Sin City on
00:32Sunday. Pittsburgh started three and oh, they've now
00:35dropped two consecutive games losing each by a single score
00:40late, but that's where it's been with Justin Fields. Russell
00:43Wilson back on the practice field since the opening week of
00:48September. It's been a very interesting quarterback room in
00:51the Steel City. Mike Tomlin had said even way back in training
00:56camp and in the offseason doesn't matter if Justin Fields
00:59looks better in practice or in preseason contests. Russell
01:02Wilson is our starter, but then of course it was a calf injury
01:06that has been the ailment that has kept Russell Wilson on the
01:09sideline. If Russ is 100% healthy, who do you think is the
01:13starting quarterback in the Steel City? This is this is one
01:16where now Justin Fields is hanging on by a thread and quite
01:19frankly, I don't think he should be like they got up to a
01:22three and oh start. You ask him to be your starting quarterback
01:24and win football games. He did that now taking a couple
01:26losses, but these losses aren't on Justin Fields. Do you want
01:29to tell me that that Colts game is like it's Fields fault over
01:31300 yards. Yes, he did have a couple turnovers, but ran into
01:34touchdowns 50 plus yards rushing and then last week
01:37where he goes alright tough environment, you know hour and
01:39a half delay in the game wet soggy field when I left that
01:42football field. We had the lead which meant that not even a
01:44field goal should be able to overtake us. Dallas had to drive
01:47the length of the field and score a touchdown and they did
01:49that's not his fault. So he's going to play this weekend
01:51against Vegas, which they should win and their favorite to do so
01:54Vandal hasn't listed at a three-point favorite, but I
01:56just feel like he's now at that point where he's looking over
02:00his shoulder when theoretically he shouldn't be doing that his
02:03football game is fine. The Pittsburgh Steelers. You see to
02:06get it together a little bit on defense, which never should
02:08have been the issue. So I look at this game and even say Ben,
02:11let's just say Aiden O'Connell is going to start. I want to
02:13talk about him in just a moment as well, but if it's not going
02:16their way 10 to 7 at the half, they're down. We know Mike
02:19Tomlin from the day. They acquired Russell Wilson is
02:22looking for any chance to put him in that football game and
02:26have a chance to win and the shame of it is this is an
02:28opponent for the Pittsburgh Steelers. You're supposed to
02:30beat. So if they win that's good for fields, but if there's
02:33any struggle and Russ comes in in a tie game at the half and
02:36wins it Tomlin's going to be like see that put the guy in
02:39won the football game. What maturity unbelievable. He was
02:41prepared. He's a hard worker and all this stuff the easy
02:44access to remove Justin Fields. It's on Justin Fields to say,
02:47you know what? It's my football team. We win this game 24 to
02:501024 to 1327 to 17 where I control the tempo and I won
02:55this game on offense. That's what I'm looking for. But your
02:57question sooner than later. Russ is getting out there. It's
03:00just a formality. The Pittsburgh Steelers right now
03:04still slightly favored to miss the playoffs, but a better
03:07outlook with a winning record in the first five weeks to make
03:10the postseason DRS. I know you guys talked about this
03:13yesterday, but only six teams in what we expected to be the
03:16more competitive conference that being the AFC have a
03:20winning record. So this gauntlet that we expected where
03:241011 wins might be the minimum for a wild card team could look
03:29a little bit different around the AFC when all is said and
03:31done. Now you wanted to talk about it in O'Connell go ahead.
03:35Yeah. Here's the here's the interesting part about that.
03:37this to me coming in the season. They were a dead team
03:39walking, but I can never fault a head coach for saying we
03:42brought in a veteran quarterback and I actually
03:44think he gives us the best chance to win football games.
03:46General managers and owners can tell you who to start when
03:49it's not best for the football team, but maybe best for the
03:52future. It's hard to tell a head coach like I actually
03:54watch the practices here in Gardner Minshew is the right
03:57guy, but for the future of the Raiders Gardner Minshew is not
04:00the right guy for that team. Here's one thing you have to
04:02do. Let Aiden O'Connell play the rest of the games all the
04:05way through and it's not an indictment in Gardner Minshew.
04:07You have to find out what you have because if you need that
04:09quarterback, which I do think they need find out sooner than
04:12later head into the draft next year with a game plan because
04:15you're not going to do anything unless you have a
04:17quarterback. I saw that move and it wasn't oh, they're doing
04:19Gardner Minshew wrong. No, they're actually doing the
04:21right thing for the franchise. O'Connell and it could be if
04:24they go and say, hey, you know you had a bad first half. I
04:26gotta put Minshew in to try to win it. Well, then you just up
04:28the creek at that point. Let this kid play the rest of the
04:31string. The Raiders are dead in the water this year. At least
04:33find out if you have a competent quarterback. I agree
04:36with this move. The Raiders are a three-point home underdog as
04:40an interim head coach. They were 7-1-1 against the spread
04:43competitive in games under Antonio Pierce. They were not
04:47expected to be. Hasn't been the case outside of their outright
04:50wins so far this season. Now, I'll just say this. I'm an
04:54Aiden O'Connell guy but he's a 26-year-old second-year
04:57quarterback and yes, it was a fourth-round pick and any draft
05:00capital is expensive in the NFL, especially on a quarterback
05:06in terms of relative value. To me though, DRS, the Raiders are
05:10going to finish with one of the worst ten records in the NFL
05:13meaning they will have a top ten draft pick meaning they
05:16will select their quarterback of the future. Yeah, that's
05:18just how I see it and it's not like, oh, we didn't really see
05:22Aiden O'Connell last year. He played in eleven games. He made
05:25ten starts. I think you kind of know what his ceiling is. I
05:29agree. It probably makes more sense in terms of the optimism
05:32to let him spin as opposed to Gardner Minshew who is a great
05:37reliable veteran and experienced backup quarterback
05:40for more of a contending team that if anything were to
05:43happen, he can go out there and chalk up a couple of wins.
05:46Probably not for this Raiders team that there's not a lot
05:49expected of at least in my mind. Yeah and correct but that's a
05:53healthy organization trying to make the right decision because
05:55you're right. He's not a 21-year-old guy but 26 as an
05:58NFL player, certainly not old specifically at the
06:01quarterback position where if he does play well, you can even
06:04say, alright, well, next year, he can be on the roster and
06:06Gardner Minshew is the best backup in football. If you say,
06:09you know what? I have a competent team that's looking
06:12to make the playoffs to make a Super Bowl run and my starting
06:14quarterback goes down one or two weeks. I can make an
06:16impact. Like, look at the Miami Dolphins right now and they did
06:18have a big win against the New England Patriots which sounds
06:21kind of funny to say but if Gardner Minshew was the backup
06:23on the Miami Dolphins, maybe they win an extra two games
06:26here before Tua Tagovailoa comes back. Boy, backup
06:28quarterback and we've talked about it ad nauseum this
06:30morning. Having a legitimate one here can just even just keep
06:34your head above water before games go two and two is so big
06:37in this day and age that so many franchises just completely
06:40overlook. I completely agree DRS. So, Andrew O'Connor will
06:44get that start week number six. No Devante Adams for Las Vegas
06:48still should be a good defense. Christian Wilkins though
06:52probably out for a few weeks. Let's get to the start of week
06:55number six on this Thursday night in Seattle. A crucial
07:00divisional duel for a team expected to easily handle this
07:03division and maybe easily handle the entirety of the NFC
07:08been anything but for the forty-niners in the opening
07:11five weeks. San Francisco is the sub 500 team in the
07:14Northwest tonight against a Seahawks team that started
07:17three and oh has come back down to earth ever so slightly
07:21dropping two consecutive games. San Francisco DRS a favorite in
07:26every game since the beginning of last season. So, to see them
07:29as a road favorite is no shock. Three and a half points tonight
07:33in favor of the Niners but short week road Thursday night
07:37divisional football game. Can San Francisco cover that
07:40spread? I think they can and usually, I am a home team guy
07:44on Thursday nights but let's also rewind last week. Maybe
07:46the two most embarrassing losses in the NFL came from the
07:49NFC West where the forty-niners had a double digit lead at home
07:52and got beat by Arizona and then you said, well, the Giants
07:54are coming to town without neighbors and without
07:57Singletary. That should be a walk in the park for Seattle and
07:59they lost that game. Here's the way I try to play it out
08:01because pedigree, right? I think the more talented team is San
08:04Francisco and quite frankly, you are banged up a little bit
08:07on that Seattle defense and also from a Seattle look, look
08:11at the games that they played. Game number one, the Broncos.
08:14You seem to be a decent team at this point. At that time,
08:16they're still playing a rookie quarterback on the road in his
08:18first career start. That offense was terrible. Then you
08:21take a look at, you know, you're playing teams like the
08:23Dolphins. You get smashed by them. The Patriots, terrible
08:26football team and then you look at the Lions and the Giants. We
08:29say the Lions actually have a formidable offense. They
08:31absolutely hammered that defense on Seattle and then you take a
08:34look at the Giants, which came in half-baked and rolled right
08:37over your football team. So, when I look at that strength of
08:39schedule over the first five weeks, I said the Dolphins,
08:42they rolled them. Well, the Dolphins came in without their
08:43quarterback. So, now you're coming with an elite offense
08:46here and a good quarterback in Brock Purdy. They should move
08:49the football up and down that field tonight against the
08:51Seahawks, Ben. Just to clarify, the Hawks rolled the Dolphins
08:55but that was Skylar Thompson's first game. Correct. Twenty-four
08:58to three for Seattle. That was their only cover of the year.
09:02Plenty more from Thursday Night Football in the start of week
09:05six. Next, football kicks off week number six of this NFL
09:09season. The San Francisco 49ers and the Seattle Seahawks. The
09:13Niners a three and a half point road favorite up in the
09:16Northwest against the Hawks. Total is forty-nine and a half.
09:20DRS, a Seattle team that started three and oh. But
09:23entering a big Monday Night Football game in Detroit, we
09:27questioned just how true or perhaps fraudulent that three
09:30and oh beginning was for Mike McDonald and the Seahawks team.
09:35Frankly, they've come back down to earth and they're one,
09:38three, and one against the spread. The only cover against
09:42Skylar Thompson and the Finns out in Seattle week number
09:47three. Well, San Francisco hasn't been great either and at
09:51least Seattle still has a winning record above 500
09:54entering week six. The San Francisco 49ers. The Super Bowl
09:59co-favorites entering the year alongside KC. The very short
10:03favorites nearly half the price of everybody else in the NFC to
10:07win that conference crown entering this season are sub
10:10500. They are two and three. They have been booked as a
10:14favorite in all five games this year. They have covered in each
10:18of their wins. Week number one against the Jets. Week number
10:22four as a double-digit favorite against the New England
10:25Patriots at home and oh by the way, they've gone over in both
10:30of their wins but Donnie the Niners have been a favorite in
10:33every football game. Even Super Bowl fifty-eight dating back
10:36to the start of last season. They're just eleven and fourteen
10:40against the spread and to me, this is an easy spot. If you
10:44want to be a Super Bowl favorite, if you want to win the
10:47NFC, if you want to be looked at as the favorite to win a
10:51conference crown, this is a game despite it being a short
10:54week. The 49ers go on the road, win comfortably and even
10:58cover as a three and a half point road favorite but it is a
11:02short week Thursday night football game and that's what
11:05draws the doubt into my mind. It does and also we're banking
11:09on the 49ers here, Ben being that football team that we've
11:12known and love saying, man, they're very talented. They're
11:15hammering football teams on the way to the NFC Championship on
11:18the way to the Super Bowl. It has been that team. Yes, we
11:20love to win over the Jets week one. How good are the Jets
11:23actually at that point? Minnesota Vikings go on the
11:25road and they get beat in that game. Vikings look like
11:26they're going to be a pretty formidable opponent here in the
11:28NFC but then the Rams with basically nobody up double
11:31digits to blow that football game. You don't get any points
11:33for beating the Patriots. That's a horrendous franchise
11:36right now and then the Cardinals came in. We had a double digit
11:38lead stole that game at the end and walked away with a victory.
11:41So, we're just anticipating, oh, it's no big deal at this
11:43point like some people might look at the Bangles like, oh,
11:45the offense is so good. They're one and four. I don't care.
11:47They're going to make a playoff run. You are what your
11:49record says you are. So, now, you line up against the Seahawks
11:52but here's where I think the Seahawks are going to be at
11:53odds is that defense as we pointed out who they played and
11:56where they got their style points from or the maybe the
11:59easiest opponents you can possibly have and you're going
12:01to get tested but I do like the fact that the Niners blew that
12:04game last week because they understand they're under 500.
12:06It's like, hey, you know what, Ben? We were unbeaten last week
12:08coming in. Maybe took the game a little bit easy. Took our foot
12:11up the gas up double digits. Where's that excuse when you're
12:13under 500? You don't have that at this point here. So, I do
12:16expect the 49ers who I think have a better offense than
12:18Seattle overall. Quite frankly, a better overall defense but
12:21that defense didn't show its teeth last week at all. Arizona
12:24was doing whatever they wanted to in big spots and on a key
12:27fourth down play, a ball that was a fifty-fifty jump ball
12:30downfield. Arizona won that and ended up driving down and
12:33getting the game-winning drive. So, I look at this and say, I
12:36want to trust the 49ers but at the same time, my brain's
12:39telling me, you're going to trust the 49ers based on who
12:41they beat and who they played this year as if they're going
12:43to go on the road on a Thursday night and we're not getting
12:45points. They're going to win roughly by a touchdown tonight
12:47to cover that three and a half. We'll see if they can get it
12:49done. I think they can do that. Not in love with it but I
12:52trust that Niners offense to go up against that Seattle
12:55defense. I would agree DRS and frankly, I would also be
12:58looking to points if it wasn't a short week Thursday night
13:01football game. Seattle's defense has not been good under
13:05first year head coach Mike McDonald. In fact, the Hawks
13:08have been over in four of five games. As we show you the
13:12totals for tonight, Seattle has allowed twenty-nine points in
13:16both of their losses. Forty-two and the only game as
13:20an underdog on the road in Detroit's a couple of weeks
13:24ago. They've allowed at least twenty in four or five games.
13:28The only one not twenty-three points against Skyler Thompson
13:32and Miami and as we have seen, the Dolphins remain a bottom
13:36three scoring offense in the national football. The Patriots
13:40scored twenty points in regulation. The Broncos somehow
13:43some way even found twenty points despite multiple
13:46turnovers from Bo Nicks and his rookie debut in the National
13:50Football League. In San Francisco, it's again not a
13:53surprise that you score more in wins than in losses but they
13:57put up at least thirty in each of their first two wins this
14:02season and Donnie, there's been a little bit of issue with a
14:05San Francisco team who was up double digits like you said
14:08twenty-three to ten at the break against Arizona last week.
14:12The offense was blank in the second half but that should
14:15have been a spot that a great forty-niners defense excels.
14:19San Francisco allowing more than twenty-one points per
14:21game. Last year, third best scoring defense in the NFL.
14:25Seventeen and a half points per game given up in the regular
14:27season on average. Best scoring defense in the NFL in 2022. The
14:32only team allowing less than seventeen points per game. If
14:35it was a Sunday football game and the total was forty-nine
14:39and a half in Seattle over short week Thursday night
14:42football game again, I do have my doubts. Yeah, there is
14:46always doubts on what type of performance we get and also
14:48keep in mind, it's a divisional game. It's not like two teams
14:50that never seen each other and they're going to be surprised
14:52completely is what happened and also you can go back in the
14:55past years and watch that defense for Seattle and say
14:57under the new head coach like yeah, here's what we
14:59anticipate. Here's what's going to happen at this point but for
15:02my money here, those ground games gotta get going and if
15:04you wanna win, if you're Seattle, the one thing you do
15:06know against that forty-niners defense which usually isn't
15:08supposed to happen. You can run on them. The Jets in a losing
15:10effort ran for 68 yards. They're down just about that
15:13entire game. Look at the next couple games. The Bikes 146,
15:16the Rams 98 yards. Now, the Cardinals yet to take a little
15:18bit with a grain of salt. They ran for 169 yards against the
15:22forty-niners. A lot of that with Kyler Murray but still
15:24James Connor, nineteen for eighty-six in that game. You
15:27got two capable running backs in that backfield for Seattle.
15:30This would have slow that both surpassed us down and if they
15:33do that, they'll be able to hang around in this one. DRS,
15:36we also have a matchup as we compare the quarterbacks and
15:39we'll continue to look at the props on the other side of the
15:42break. Between two of the four leading passers in the NFL,
15:46Gino Smith, the most passing yards this year, fourteen
15:49hundred and sixty-six. Brock Purdy, thirteen seventy-four
15:54but only six touchdowns to four interceptions for Purdy. He
15:58threw multiple INTs last week against the cards. Gino Smith,
16:02only five touchdown tosses to four picks this season. We'll
16:07talk about the quarterbacks again. Short week Thursday
16:09night football game. Both have a prop at two fifty or higher
16:14and the individuals that will impact the outcome up next and
16:18what it all means on this Thursday night to start week
16:21six live right here on the early right here on this
16:24Thursday to start week number six of the NFL season. DRS, a
16:29matchup tonight of two quarterbacks in Seattle. One who
16:32leads the NFL in passing yards. That's Gino Smith and
16:35another guy that ranks inside the top five. In fact, fourth,
16:39that's Brock Purdy but in terms of touchdowns to
16:42interceptions, five to four for Gino Smith, six to four and
16:46multiple INTs thrown last week by Brock Purdy. How do you
16:50compare the quarterbacks for Thursday night? See, I get to
16:53do the slight edge here to Brock Purdy. The reason I say
16:56that is obviously, I love the play calling Kyle Shanahan but
16:58he if he was on point last week, they win that football
17:01game. He just wasn't as decisive as you wanted him to
17:03be in the red zone. That cost him in the end. You score
17:05touchdowns as opposed to kicking field goals or non
17:08field goals cuz you don't have a kicker. That's certainly
17:10gonna catch up to you and it did last week. I expect a much
17:12cleaner performance in the pocket today for Brock Purdy
17:15and also keep in mind, both of these quarterbacks have a lot
17:18of weapons at their disposal. Running backs, wide receivers,
17:21tight ends. We should have a pretty competent performance
17:23out of both of them and we're not having the expectation. Oh,
17:25this guy's like Gino Smith's been around the block quite a
17:28few times. Brock Purdy's played in some big football games.
17:30They just need to be clean and also, we're not at full gas on
17:33both of these defenses. That's a banged up defensive line,
17:35banged up linebacking core, and banged up secondary for the
17:3849ers and a lot of missing pieces on Seattle. So, it's
17:41rare in this day and age of yes, we're throwing the football
17:44to actually see two quarterbacks spend at the
17:45FanDuel Sportsbook in that 250 range. How many times? 225,
17:49one's 211, one's 198. So, they're expecting points in it
17:53by posting those numbers. Both of these quarterbacks have
17:55legitimate chances to throw two plus touchdowns a piece and
17:58also, the anytime interception is live. Why? Because I do
18:01think we're going to get a lot of passing tonight in this
18:03game and also keep in mind in Seattle, you worry about those
18:05weather conditions. Is it raining or not? Not going to be
18:07rainy tonight. Cooler conditions, light winds. We
18:10should have a perfect night for football and these two
18:12quarterbacks should be able to get after it in the air. For
18:14me, slight edge to Purdy because I think overall, which
18:17includes George Kittle, he does have better weapons. So,
18:20I'll go that route. Gino Smith in the opening win this year
18:23for Seattle. Less than 200. Pretty comfortable game against
18:27Denver. In the four cents, he has been over this number in
18:30four straight. DRS, you mentioned the ground game. San
18:33Francisco allowing a buck sixty-nine last week. A lot of
18:35that with the legs of Kyler Murray. Gino Smith not
18:38necessarily as mobile as Murray but San Francisco allowed less
18:42than 90 yards per game on the ground a year ago. Third best
18:46in the NFL. This year about a buck ten. Seattle on the other
18:49side giving up nearly 121 rushing yards per game and it's
18:53not Christian McCaffrey but Jordan Mason has been pretty
18:56good despite coughing up the football late in the fourth
18:59quarter. That really did cost San Francisco a week ago. How
19:03do you compare the running backs tonight in Seattle? I
19:06like I like both running backs. I think you're going to have
19:08some pretty good impacts here. You take a look at Kenneth
19:10Walker here. One hundred and three yards, 80 yards and a
19:12five for nineteen which is the disappointing effort. Also was
19:15banged up a little bit. If he's healthy, the key to the
19:17running games, Ben helps the quarterback out because now you
19:20talk about if you have an effective running game, the
19:22play action pass works. Defenders can't pin their ears
19:24back. The linebackers can't crowd the line of scrimmage and
19:27it works off but also keep in mind, Ken Walker in the
19:29receiving game here. Fifty-seven yards, thirty-six
19:32and six yards here. I believe that six-yard game. I think I
19:34want to say he was banged up a bit there. So, I do think you
19:37can attack but you're right about this. The one thing you
19:39love about San Francisco, you're not really worried and
19:42maybe Devo Samuel steals a red zone carry or two but it's not
19:46like we're working in a atmosphere of Detroit where
19:48it's like, boy, who's ever on the goal line might get those
19:50carries whether it's going to be Gibbs, whether it's going to
19:52be Montgomery. You have a clear lead dog and the one
19:54thing you know, Christian McCaffrey's not coming back
19:57anytime soon. You saw the fumble in the red zone last
19:59week. What are you supposed to do when you start running back
20:01here? So, you know what? We trust you. Let's give you those
20:04carries. Fifteen to twenty tonight. We'll give you the
20:06goal line work here. We know that fumble certainly was a
20:09mistake by you. That probably won't happen again. Let's go
20:11out and prove it here but for my money, if you said, Donnie,
20:14you gotta bet one player to go over his yards, it's probably
20:17Mason because why Ben? If I think the Niners will be able
20:19to win this game, maybe Walker's not getting those extra
20:22three to four carries in the fourth quarter and Mason
20:25actually is. So, DRS, because we have two of the top four
20:28leading passers in the NFL, their pass catchers have some
20:32numbers that you can certainly dive into tonight and let's
20:35start with Brandon Ayuk, the man who has finally paid this
20:38offseason for San Francisco and finally looking like he was
20:42worth the paycheck. Twelve targets last week, eight grabs,
20:46147 yards as a Brandon Ayuk fantasy owner in both of my
20:51leagues. I was very happy to finally see him have more than
20:54fifty receiving yards in a game. He came through clutch
20:58last week for the forty-niners. No receiving touchdowns this
21:01year though for Ayuk. Yeah, finally good to see him back
21:05though. You're right. There's two ways you can look at this
21:06and sometimes you make it harder on yourself and I love
21:09to do this and here's what I'm stating. Ayuk finally was back
21:12to Brandon Ayuk mode like this guy's our number one wide
21:14receiver, great route runner. He's open. We're finding him
21:17the football. You know, he didn't get the football last
21:18week really. It was Debo Samuel. So, now you say to
21:21yourself, you see that fifty-seven and a half which
21:22actually up from fifty-five and a half where people are saying,
21:25hey, look, we didn't get you the football enough. Now, we're
21:27going to make sure you get the football. The one thing I do
21:29expect is those two guys at wide receiver for San Francisco,
21:32they should be open tonight. This is a defense that can be
21:34had and an offensive coordinator that can dial it up
21:37with the best. In the National Football League, Mark Zeno here
21:40for a third consecutive segment. Zeno, you're sick
21:43about Colorado and K-State. I feel kind of sick about the
21:47for the Thursday night opener to week number six. Three and a
21:50half points spread in favor of the forty-niners against the
21:53Seahawks. Total at forty-nine and a half. Here's why I'm
21:56sick. This was a Sunday game. I'm doubling down. Laying three
22:00and a hook with the Niners over forty-nine and a half but it's
22:03Thursday night short week on the road in a divisional duel.
22:07How do you see Thursday night football playing out in the
22:09Pacific Northwest? I mean, have you seen the Seattle injury
22:14report? Uh it looks like one of those ES receipts that is out
22:19there. You know, it's just a long list of things uh that you
22:22want no part of. Uh you look at the injuries that they've had.
22:26Here's the thing for me. It's the third game in 11 days for
22:29the Seahawks. They played Monday night in Detroit. They
22:32hosted the Giants and then they're back here for a
22:34Thursday night game. So, it's a terrible scheduling spot for
22:37them and this just in. Sorry, Mike McDonald. Your defense
22:40stinks particularly your past defense. You wanna look at
22:43Seattle what they took advantage of the first 3 weeks
22:46of this season guys. They played Bo Nix in his first
22:48ever NFL game on the road. Then Jacoby Reset. Then Skyler
22:51Thompson. The last 2 weeks they've been carved up by Jared
22:55Goff which we understand and by Daniel freaking Jones. Stop it.
22:58This is a competent offense with a very good quarterback
23:01and Brock Purdy. There's a lot of ways I can play this. I
23:03think you take Brock Purdy over uh over one and a half
23:06touchdowns. I can take San Fran over thirteen and a half points
23:08in the first half and I'm willing to lay. I got a three
23:11earlier in the week but I'm willing to lay the three or
23:13three and a half with San Fran's injury report is just
23:15way too much for Seattle to overcome. Gino Smith is not
23:18that good uh and San Francisco cannot afford after blowing a
23:22ten point lead to the Rams 2 weeks ago and blowing a bigger
23:25lead to the Cardinals last week. They cannot afford to
23:28have a division loss. A third division loss at this point in
23:31time. Fall two and a half behind Seattle. Must win spot
23:33for San Francisco here. All desperation. San Fran's covered.
23:36I'm sorry. One five straight gone four and one ATS. The only
23:39one they didn't cover was a fourteen and a half point
23:41spread late last year in December in a game that was
23:43academic. Here are the Niners. I'll lay the points. Start of
23:45the NFL in week number six. Thursday night football in
23:49Seattle. The Seahawks and the 49ers. San Francisco three and
23:53a half point road favorite. Total is up there for a short
23:56week Thursday night football game at forty-nine and a half.
24:00What is the best bet? That was the question to all of you and
24:04fade the public.
24:09Alright, at last check by my last recorded tally. We did
24:16ask the public best bet Monday night football. KC and New
24:20Orleans inside Arrowhead Saints five and a half point dog
24:24public loved it. Who could fault them? Five and a half
24:27point underdogs really good this year. Not on Monday night.
24:31The public DRS in these FTP polls for a best bet now three
24:37and five. Speaking of the numbers three and five three
24:42and a half point spread in favor of the 49ers on the road
24:46tonight. It's where the public is looking 36% of the vote on
24:51the fade the public poll at Sports Grid on Twitter backing
24:55San Francisco land a field goal and a hook the Seahawks though
24:59it plus three and a half second most votes under 49 and a half
25:03has that third most selected option. Not a lot of people
25:07thinking points short week Thursday night divisional duel
25:11in this start of week six DRS to the public. Get it right
25:15because it's San Francisco minus the points. I think the
25:18public did get it right. Are we in love with that hook there?
25:21No, we're not because it means the 49ers probably have to win
25:23this game by a touchdown. Can they absolutely is it hard to
25:25do against a divisional opponent on short rest on the
25:28road when you're not playing great football? Maybe so both
25:30of these offenses should be able to get after it, but I am
25:33very surprised here because it's usually an automatic every
25:36time we bring up these polls where if you include the total
25:40typically the over no matter what the price or where it
25:42sits always has the advantage over the under but now we see a
25:46decided advantage from the under backers at 24% backing the
25:50under and only 13% backing the over 49 and a half because
25:53sometimes we just get beat down these prime time games where
25:56these teams are coming in beat up and battered and just
25:59looking to survive as opposed to absolutely eviscerate their
26:02opponent on both sides. So I do think that's a bit of a
26:05surprise because the public typically likes the overs and
26:07also we are deemed to believe that the 49ers are a better
26:10team from the Seahawks. They just haven't showed it less to
26:13it. You think it's like I can't believe that the Seahawks lost
26:16to the Giants at home. Well, then I tell you that the 49ers
26:19lost to the Cardinals at home. so it almost like a race is
26:21like that. Oh how bad the Seahawks have been, but I do
26:24think there is something to who you actually have been
26:26playing pedigree for the 49ers coming into the season thought
26:29they would win the division Seahawks. I thought they would
26:31be competitive and they will be, but they haven't shown me
26:34anything when you're stepping up in competition like let me
26:36show the world what we can do against Detroit and see if we
26:39can stop that offense. They couldn't do anything there.
26:41What they've been shown to is stop really bad offenses and
26:44pick up victories. The San Francisco 49ers in elite
26:47offense, something they haven't shown to slow down here. So it
26:50is interesting to see the public saying, whoa, 50 points
26:53is a lot on a Thursday and as we said already under 10 mile
26:56an hour winds 60s in the temperatures, no rain in the
26:59forecast in Seattle. We should get a pretty clean performance,
27:01which is crazy that the under is being back so heavily here.
27:05Yeah, I completely agree DRS and I think it's only from the
27:09perspective of a short week Thursday night football game.
27:12The Niners defense hasn't been great giving up more than 21
27:15points per game. They were the best defense in the league two
27:18years ago, less than 17 points per game. Third best a season
27:22ago. They've had some key injuries. Seattle's defense has
27:26not looked great and the Seahawks have a ton of injuries
27:29on this short week. Seattle has allowed 29 points or more and
27:34it's two consecutive losses 42 to Detroit in the Motor City.
27:38All right on the road Detroit good offense 29, although one
27:44was on a blocked field goal. So really 23 to the New York
27:47Giants without Malik neighbors and Devin Singletary a week ago.
27:52I'm leaning points at least San Francisco points and I do
27:56believe the Niners if you want to be considered a Super Bowl
27:59frontrunner, the NFC title favorites. This is a game you
28:03win and win comfortably. The Niners have been booked as a
28:07favorite in every game this year. They're both two and three
28:09straight up and against the spread. They have covered
28:11comfortably in their two wins this season, but only two wins
28:16and that is the issue Seattle. Meanwhile, one three and one
28:20against the spread did not cover in its only game as a dog
28:24in Detroit two Monday nights ago and Donnie. I think my
28:28best bet for this game is something our producer
28:31extraordinaire Joe Friso pointed out to both of us. San
28:34Francisco is greater than a $2 favorite to win the NFC West
28:38this season. A lot of odds optimism and expectation for
28:42the 49ers entering 2024. The Niners have won the NFC West
28:47divisional crown each of the past two years after a dismal
28:51two and three start. The Niners are still a minus money
28:53favorite, but it's only minus 115 now on the fan dual sports
28:58book. San Francisco wins this game tonight and they should
29:01they're back in first even with an even 500 record at three
29:05and three in the NFC West because the Seahawks are the
29:09only team with a winning record in the division as of this
29:12moment. So maybe it's not worth playing three and a half. I
29:15probably still will. I'm going to go bet San Francisco at the
29:18commercial break at minus 115 to win the NFC West. It does
29:22make some sense. It almost feels like they're baiting into
29:24that, right? Because that's the way it's supposed to happen.
29:26You're supposed to get a 49ers win tonight. They are favored,
29:28which means they'll be back in first place. The Arizona
29:31Cardinals. Yeah, they're a tough team. It'll fight you and
29:33they're going to beat the 49ers, but the expectations
29:35aren't high and the Rams might be out of it by the time they
29:38get the reserves back here at the wide receiver position
29:41actually challenged for that division. So we're thinking
29:43about how good the San Francisco 49ers actually are
29:46because if you wait tonight and say, all right, I don't know
29:49if the 49ers are going to win. Let's just say they lose.
29:51Certainly that number is going to go higher. But if the 49ers
29:54win tonight, that number you probably won't see again for
29:56the rest of the season, unless you have devastating injuries
29:59on the San Francisco 49ers. So it does make some sense. I'm
30:02interested to see what we get out of Seattle tonight because
30:04this is one of those opportunities where they can
30:06actually take a strangle on this division, improve the four
30:09and two and make the Niners drop the two and four, which
30:11includes the 49ers already beating, excuse me, the Seattle
30:14Seahawks already beating the 49ers. So a lot is at stake
30:17tonight and there's a lot of weapons on that football field.
30:20Could it be controlled by the running game? Is it controlled
30:22by the two quarterbacks? Do we see better red zone passing
30:25out of Brock Purdy tonight? Do we see Geno Smith, you know,
30:28shake off that game last week and actually hit some deep
30:30shots to DK Metcalf? There's a lot to go over and a lot to be
30:33at stake and a lot of fun. With a 49 and a half, we should get
30:35some fun tonight. Jack of all trades, he's the man with the
30:39prop perspective at Sports Grids. Tom Vecchio. Tom, as
30:42always, thank you for your time. Of course. Thanks for
30:45having me. This is a great time to be a sports fan, as I will
30:49always say. We have a ton to get to tonight. I gotta say,
30:52when it comes to the football games tonight, the football
30:55game tonight, I should say, I love the under and I love a lot
30:58of unders tonight. So that may not be the most exciting thing,
31:00but let's roll into it. Short week, Thursday night football
31:05game, our fifth of this season. First three dead unders. Last
31:10week, a scoring bonanza in Atlanta into overtime between
31:14the Falcons and the Buccaneers. So, Vecchio, we always use the
31:17numbers, the spread, the money line, and that total to inform
31:21how we see the game playing out. Three and a half points
31:24spread in favor of the road team, the 49ers in Seattle.
31:28Total is up there for a short week, Thursday night football
31:31game at 49 and a half. You like the under. You like a lot of
31:36unders. How come? I think we need to take a step back from
31:40this game and look at what both of these teams have been
31:43through. The 49ers, through the past three weeks, we have these
31:45blown leads against what I'm going to say are inferior teams.
31:49They look like a mess on offense. They can't close
31:51things out on defense. Seattle, off to this flying, you know,
31:53three and 0 start. Then they finally get tested, especially
31:56against the Lions, and then they get run all over last week
31:59when they're seven and a half point home favorites. We have a
32:01divisional game. Both of these teams are trying to right the
32:04ship. What does that mean? It is going to be a ground game.
32:06They want to eliminate the variants, and that means keeping
32:09things under control. It's again, this is a divisional
32:11game. We could be looking at Seattle blowing this 3-0 start
32:14and all of a sudden being 3-3. The 49ers, they're going to be
32:18sitting here being under 500 after this game. I think they
32:20want to eliminate all of these potential mistakes and keep this
32:23game as simple as possible. 50 points for a divisional game on
32:27a short week when, especially when the 49ers aren't healthy?
32:30Absolutely no. Give me the under. Yeah, by the way, Tom, we
32:34usually ask the public or state the public poll here. We ask
32:37the public what their thoughts were. They actually like the
32:39under in a big number as well, so that's one of the
32:41interesting points to bring up. Most people typically just
32:43cheer for the overs, but the public saying under along with
32:47you tonight. Let's take a look at some of these quarterback
32:48props like Gino Smith and Brock Purdy. The thing I like about
32:51this is a lot of times we see 190s, 201s, 211s here. Both of
32:56these quarterbacks listed on the FanDuel Sportsbook, Tom,
32:58over 250.5. That's for Gino Smith and 253.5 for Brock
33:02Purdy. Touchdown passes. Both of the quarterbacks at plus,
33:05excuse me, at over 1.5. One is at minus 118. That's Brock
33:08Purdy. The other at plus 108 for Gino Smith. What are the
33:11quarterbacks doing for us tonight, Tom? I think we
33:14actually could see a half decent game from Gino and it
33:17could be similar to that Monday night game against the Lions
33:19where they may be playing from behind, so he has to pass and
33:22we'll just get the volume. Maybe a little bit of garbage
33:24time, but that's what we want to call it. Purdy, I have a
33:28tough time with Purdy props outside of one of them tonight,
33:30which we can certainly get to, which would be under 20.5
33:33completions. I think, again, this has to be a ground game
33:36from the 49ers. He's been really good. He leads the league
33:39with 8.8 yards per 10, so they're breaking off this chunk
33:42place and then reel that in, right? Reel that in with the
33:45running game with Mason. So, listen, he's averaging 20.6 on
33:48the year. I don't see him flying over this number. If he's
33:50flying over this number, I think Seattle's live on the
33:52money line at that point. So, let's go to the running backs
33:56then, Becky. Oh, if we're not expecting a ton of points and
33:59we're looking to maybe fade the quarterbacks in terms of their
34:02overall offensive production tonight, Kenneth Walker III, a
34:06much lower prop than that of Jordan Mason. Kenneth Walker III
34:11has been good. San Francisco's defense up front, not nearly as
34:14stout as years past. Seattle's had a ton of issues defensively.
34:19How big of a role do both backs play tonight on Thursday Night
34:22Football? I think it's going to be huge. I think they both go
34:25over their yards prop. I think they both go over their
34:27attempts prop, and again, we saw Tyrone Tracy run all over
34:31Seattle last week. Gibbs and Montgomery for Detroit, two
34:34weeks ago, both had solid games on the ground. This is the
34:37first, you know, the first two games that we've seen the
34:39Seattle defense tested. I think this is a clear Mason game. I
34:42don't care about the fumble and the most resounding game, and
34:44they want to reel that in. If we look back to last week when
34:46Purdy was going up against the Cardinals, he had some like
34:49really weird plays in the pocket where he couldn't find a
34:52player downfield. He's kind of scrambling. He's lost. He's
34:55spinning around. They need to eliminate that, right? They need
34:57to give the ball to Mason, keep things as consistent as
34:59possible, and then when it comes to Walker, again, we need
35:03to understand what Seattle is facing right now, going 0-3 over
35:06their past three games after this great 3-0 start. Like,
35:08they have a chance to compete for the division title with the
35:11Rams being so injured. The 49ers picking up this win against
35:15them would be massive. So, this is a ground game, time and time
35:18again, on a short divisional week. Give me both overs. Yeah,
35:22I do like the ground game as well in this game, but let's
35:24talk a little bit about the pass receivers here. The big
35:26dogs on each side. DK Metcalf, over 66.5 receiving yards.
35:30Brandon Iuka, the 49ers, 64.5 receiving yards. Are we going
35:34top of the line here, or is there some value plays down
35:37that list, Tom, that might get your attention in the receiving
35:39market? I have interest in Metcalf. I think he needs a bit
35:43of a get-right game after slow-outing last week. I also
35:45have interest in both Iuka and Debo Samuel, and that solely
35:48comes down to whether or not George Kittle will be playing.
35:51We know he's listed as questionable for tonight. They
35:52elevated a tight end off the practice squad yesterday. So, I
35:56think this game, again, mainly focuses on unders when it comes
35:58to the passing game. But if they're going to be passing it,
36:00and we do have an injury on the San Francisco side of things,
36:03I think we can look to Debo. I have interest in Tyler Lockett
36:06unders. He's third on the team when it comes to reception.
36:08Target share at 16.9. I think this needs to be a JSN and DK
36:12game. We're going to see Kenneth Walker coming out of the
36:14backfield. We're going to see Zach Charbonneau will be coming
36:17out of the backfield. Maybe Noah Fant. Lockett's the guy
36:19that's going to hit the under tonight. You know who actually
36:22has the most receptions grabs on Seattle? It's not Lockett.
36:26It's not DK Metcalf. It's Jackson Smith and Jigba. He
36:30leads Seattle with 29 catches so far this season. So, there
36:34were Tom's top props for Thursday night football. Once
36:38again, let's flash it so everybody can see it. Jot them
36:40down before we get to the other two sports in action tonight.
36:43October baseball in the NHL at half point spread in favor of
36:47the 49ers. 49 and a half is the total tonight in this football
36:53game. You are correct, Joe Frizzo, our producer yelling in
36:56my ear to talk about some news around the National Football
37:00League. Couldn't have done that in the commercial break. Had to
37:03make your ill-informed jokes. Alright, so let's go to that
37:06news around the NFL. The New York Jets have made a change
37:10DRS in terms of who is going to be their offensive play caller.
37:14It is no longer Nathaniel Hackett. It is going to be Todd
37:19Downing. He's the new team play caller for the New York Jets
37:24starting Monday night in that crucial matchup against the
37:27Buffalo Bills. Interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich announcing
37:30that earlier this morning. What do you make of the decision and
37:34the shifting coaching staff in New York? It makes no
37:39difference and also brings up why is Nathaniel Hackett still
37:41employed by the New York Jets? Isn't that the question that we
37:43have here? It's clear that it's the offense's issue here. Now,
37:46the play calling isn't good. Even though it's a handpicked
37:49play caller by Aaron Rodgers who has the ability to line up
37:52on the line of scrimmage and change any play he wants but
37:54apparently it's the play caller that has to change for Aaron
37:57Rodgers. So, the excuses keep firing in but also gives you
38:00the ultimate out. You have a good game on Monday night. Hey,
38:02look, it was the head coach and the play caller. Now, we're on
38:04our way to the Super Bowl which obviously we don't think is
38:07going to be the case until they really turn it around and go a
38:09couple weeks with victories and looking solid on offense but I
38:12just think it's fun. It's like rearranging the chairs here. Did
38:15we really think the play caller was the issue? No. The
38:17quarterback is the issue people. So, there's been a lot
38:22of reports that maybe the Jets and Robert Sala are going to
38:25fire Nathaniel Hackett who is only the offensive coordinator
38:28because he is best buds with Aaron Rodgers. He does not
38:31deserve to be the offensive coordinator in New York based
38:34on his performance either there or with the Denver Broncos but
38:38with all that being said, that report was kind of disputed.
38:42Maybe there was some truth to it. Either way, DRS, I think
38:45one of the reasons that Hackett wasn't named the interim head
38:49coach is because then the onus is on Aaron Rodgers. You can
38:53legitimately point to his best buddy calling the players and
38:56be like, hey, they don't got it. It's because of Hackett. So,
39:00this is a little bit intriguing to me. Again, as I think that
39:03Aaron Rodgers is the puppet master despite him resenting
39:06that very idea coming out of my mouth. Is he now trying to push
39:11his guy to the side so that if things don't work out
39:14offensively, it's on Todd Downing and other scapegoat. I
39:17don't know. Maybe I'm being a conspiracy theorist that I
39:20blame Aaron Rodgers for being but that's just how I'm seeing
39:22it. No, just just go back to last year. Late in the season,
39:26Jets are out of the playoffs. Aaron Rodgers wanted to throw a
39:28couple of slant passes in practice and literally took food
39:31off a man's table and then tried to play it out like he
39:33would never do that and that was ridiculous. It wasn't up to
39:35him. Yes, it was. He always told you he was coming back if
39:38it wasn't to the game that was to practice. So, we've been
39:40seeing this before. Let's see how this plays out on Monday
39:42football because it is going to be awesome. Yeah. Either way,
39:45Jets win, big story. Jets lose, big story. Can't lose. Todd
39:50Downing, by the way, former offensive coordinator with the
39:53Tennessee Titans under Mike Vrabel also made headlines for
39:56getting arrested in Nashville for public intoxication after
40:01they had a win. If I remember that story correctly and
40:04hopefully, I'm not going to be sued for libel. Football but
40:10allegedly, allegedly, we'll just say that here. Yeah,
40:13thank you. Thank you, DRS. I appreciate it and listen,
40:15you've been winning cases in litigation all Thursday
40:18morning long. So, let's get the Thursday night football in
40:23Seattle between the 49ers and the Seahawks. Three and a half
40:26points spread in favor of San Francisco. Forty-nine and a
40:30half is the total. DRS, we have broken down this game. You
40:33heard Tom Vecchio's thoughts. When all is said and done, how
40:36are you playing Thursday night to start off week six? I think
40:40San Francisco is the better team. So, if you're going to
40:42start there and take out the bias that I typically have for
40:44the home team on Thursday night football, I think the San
40:46Francisco 49ers win. Also, Tom was right on that total. It's
40:48forty-nine and a half. We'll be around that number. The
40:51question is going to be way over that total. Stay under it
40:54or they're going to be bad turnovers, missed field goals.
40:56You get the point here and also, it is a divisional game.
40:59That's a lot of points. Fifty. I do think both of these teams
41:02will be in the twenties but the fact that matters, can one of
41:04these teams get into the thirties or needs to get into
41:07the thirties but from a prop perspective here, I do think
41:09Brock Purdy is going to have a very good football game. If
41:11George Kittle does play anticipating that he will, that
41:14means you have the ultimate weapons ready to go and a
41:16ground game that should be able to take advantage of Seattle's
41:19defense. On the flip side, we are supposed to get a pretty
41:22good ground game here from Kenneth Walker III and Zach
41:25Charbonnet. Also, keep in mind, the reception game for those
41:28two running backs, Ben, Zach Charbonnet today, thirteen and
41:30a half is just receiving prop. Take a look at the first five
41:33games, twenty-nine, thirty-one, sixteen, thirty-nine, and
41:36nineteen. He's crossed over that number each and every game
41:38and if you think they're going to be losing and more pass
41:41catching ability, they can do that and also Kenneth Walker
41:44has had two games with thirty-six and fifty-seven
41:46yards receiving. So, maybe the backs out of the backfield and
41:49also getting the ground game going here for Seattle will be
41:51a big deal. Anytime touchdown market for me as we whip through
41:54these, Jordan Mason, it's expensive. I think he gets in.
41:57Hebo Samuel, I think is a legitimate one and also yes,
41:59Tom, DK Metcalf. I think he hits off a big play which ends
42:02up in a touchdown. I think that makes some sense as well. We
42:05got some good options tonight. We really do. We really do,
42:08DRS and again, Tom doesn't like the over. I'm not advocating
42:12for fifty-plus points in a short week divisional duel
42:16Thursday night football game but we should be seeing
42:19offenses on display. Neither defense has been very good
42:23especially by forty-niners standards. Both defenses either
42:27week to week or season long to this point dealing with some
42:31pretty significant injuries. San Francisco over in each of
42:35its two wins. Seattle over in four or five games this season.
42:39By the way, Jordan Mason, eighty-two and a half has been
42:42over that number in four of five games with eighty-eight
42:45rushing yards in all four of those overs. That's a Christian
42:50McCaffrey touchdown number though. He's only scored in
42:53three of five games this year with just three rushing scores.
42:57DRS, I do really like Jackson Smith and Jigba. Five plus
43:01receptions tonight over four and a half receptions is minus
43:04146. He's actually the leading receiver when it comes to
43:08catches so far this year for the Seahawks. I'll make it
43:12pretty simple though before I turn it back to you. I'm just
43:15going to lay three and a half with the forty-niners tonight
43:17and and feel confident in doing so and if I lose, I lose so be
43:22it but I'll lay three and a half with the Niners. Yeah, most
43:24of my notes here this morning did start typically it's with
43:27the quarterback and the wide receivers but it did start with
43:29the running backs here. The ability to rush on both of
43:31these games I think is going to be huge and also usually say
43:34well the running backs are going to eat up a lot of the
43:36clock. That means that play action path is going to be
43:38available where you can shoot that football downfield. So I do
43:41look for some good touchdown markets Mason and Samuel. I
43:44don't think you can lose with both of those guys tonight for
43:46the forty-niners. Johnny Peder.