Trump could have a 'disastrous effect': 'NATO is on the ballot in the 2024 US Presidential Election'
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00:00NATO leaders are getting down to work in Washington today for their 75th anniversary summit.
00:07The big focus this week will be on getting more military support for Ukraine.
00:12And speaking Tuesday, host Joe Biden announced a new air defense system for Kyiv.
00:17The president's speech came amid doubts over his political survival after that disastrous
00:22presidential debate with Donald Trump, the former president known for loudly questioning
00:27NATO's relevance.
00:28Siobhan Silke has more.
00:31Facing questions at home over his ability to lead, on Tuesday, US President Joe Biden
00:36was on the world stage.
00:39As the US hosts NATO's 75th anniversary summit, the White House is keen to shore up confidence
00:44in Biden's leadership skills, not just for US voters, but for US allies.
00:50Speaking in full voice, Biden began his welcome speech with a history lesson.
00:55Together we rebuilt Europe from the ruins of war.
01:00And continued with promises for the future.
01:03That we're ready, that we're willing, that we're able to deter aggression and defend
01:09every inch of NATO territory across every domain.
01:14And he had a concrete announcement of new military aid for Ukraine in the form of dozens
01:19of air defense systems from several NATO allies, desperately needed resources as Ukrainian
01:24forces struggle with troop and equipment shortages while Russia continues its relentless
01:29bombardment, despite reports of its own shortages.
01:34Ukraine can and will stop Putin, especially with our full collective support.
01:41They have our full support.
01:44Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is looking for more.
01:47At a pre-summit event on Tuesday, he spoke of Ukraine's need for not just defensive but
01:52offensive capability.
01:54We can significantly limit Russian actions in southern Ukraine and push the occupier
02:01out of there if American leadership assists us with the necessary deep strike capabilities.
02:09And though NATO's vow of support has been consistent, it's still stopping short of promising
02:13the membership sought by Zelensky.
02:16But some NATO diplomats are proposing that the summit declaration should cite an irreversible
02:21path to Ukraine's membership.
02:24We're going to talk more about this now with transatlantic strategy and security expert
02:29Garrett Martin, who joins me live from Washington.
02:32Thanks for joining us.
02:33The NATO summit opened last night with Biden, who's been overshadowed, of course, by all
02:37the controversy over his age post-debate.
02:40Do you think the NATO member nations got that strong U.S. leadership they were hoping for?
02:47I think the speech was a first step.
02:51I think there's going to be great scrutiny in the next few days as to how Joe Biden acts,
02:56whether he seemed up to the task.
02:58You can imagine that there was already great trepidation even before the disastrous debate
03:04because Joe Biden seemed to be behind in the polls.
03:07So I think the stakes are certainly very high and there's going to be a lot of expectation
03:12on the part of member states as to how well Joe Biden can lead.
03:17He was trying, of course, to project an image of a man who can be president fully for the
03:21next four years.
03:22Do you think that's what the NATO leaders saw, a man who's able to do that?
03:25Well, I think they saw that he could do very well on a scripted speech.
03:30I think we've seen that in recent weeks.
03:32I think what we haven't necessarily seen is how can he react on impromptu situations and
03:38how will he do, for instance, in the press conference on Thursday, where there will be,
03:41again, sort of high scrutiny?
03:44The question also is to what degree will his own difficulties overshadow the achievements
03:50that NATO is trying to project to the outside world this week?
03:54Right.
03:55And I think for many Americans, it will be hard for them to unsee what they saw at that
04:00debate last month.
04:01I mean, as you say, there's going to be this live press conference.
04:03That's going to be a big test for the president.
04:06But when it comes to NATO, Trump and Biden are in such opposite camps.
04:11Of course, Trump thinks the U.S. should just retreat into its own borders, doesn't need
04:16NATO.
04:17What kind of effect would a second Trump presidency have on NATO if it were to come to that?
04:22I mean, it potentially could have a disastrous effect.
04:25I mean, we had four years when Trump was president, and at the very least, we could say these
04:30were very difficult.
04:32They were full of public disputes and full of projections of disunity.
04:37We do have alleged reports that Trump would seriously contemplate a withdrawal, a full
04:42American withdrawal.
04:43And you can imagine that would jeopardize the longevity and the future of NATO.
04:47So yes, there's certainly NATO is on the ballot box, is on the ballot in 2024 in the presidential
04:54election.
04:55What about the effect of Trump presidency would have on Ukraine, which is such a key
04:59issue, particularly at this summit?
05:03I think, again, we can have certainly significant question marks about the American commitment
05:08to Ukraine.
05:09I think it's already in a context where there is division.
05:12I mean, saw the delay for the supplemental aid in Congress only a few months ago.
05:18Trump's statements have certainly not been very encouraging.
05:21And he has suggested that he could go and essentially negotiate an end to the conflict
05:26in 24 hours.
05:27So the risk that Trump might essentially abandon Ukraine is certainly not completely farfetched.
05:34Washington last hosted a NATO summit in 1999 for the alliance's 50th anniversary.
05:39How have things changed the most in the 25 years since then?
05:44Well, the change in so many different ways, I think in 99, yes, there was the war in Kosovo
05:50at the time, but the general security environment was a lot more stable here when a situation
05:56where NATO, of course, has a major war in Ukraine, has some challenges in the south,
06:01but also very much has to deal with the rise of China.
06:05NATO is also now 32 members as opposed to 19.
06:08So the challenges of managing the alliance and maintaining cohesion here are also significantly
06:14amplified.
06:17What about Ukraine's eventual membership in NATO?
06:19Could that get one step closer to reality?
06:23Well, we're still very much in the stage where formal invitation is not on the table.
06:27I think what we're going to see is essentially a semantics battle over the final statement.
06:33I think there are some reports that we may have a little step forward from last year
06:37where the timeline was very vague.
06:40I think there are reports that the statement might talk about at least it being on an irreversible
06:44path, which would at the very least, you know, claim or suggest a form of support.
06:51As to an exact timeline, I still think that's very unclear at this stage.
06:56There's another turning point for NATO in some ways.
06:59It's getting a new secretary general.
07:01That's the outgoing Dutch Prime Minister, Mark Rudeau, who will be stepping in in October.
07:05How will he compare to the current NATO chief, Jens Stoltenberg?
07:09Well, I think, first of all, I think Jens Stoltenberg has done an outstanding job managing
07:14the alliance through an extremely difficult time.
07:16And I think also to his credit, Stoltenberg managed Donald Trump very well as well.
07:22I think Rudeau was partly chosen because when he was Dutch Prime Minister, he had also been
07:27able to stand up and manage Donald Trump quite effectively.
07:31He's a well-known operative and leader amongst his fellows or member states.
07:36So I think for that reason, I think he will certainly be entrusted.
07:38All right, Garrett, thank you for taking the time to speak to us.
07:41Garrett Martin there.
07:42My pleasure.
07:43Thank you.