'Keys To The White House' Creator Reveals Which Factors Are Still Up In The Air For 2024 Contest

3 months ago

On "Forbes Newsroom," Prof. Allan Lichtman discussed which "Keys to the White House" are still up in the air in the 2024 contest.

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00:00We are, as many people say, in an unprecedented time right now.

00:06Many people have said that debate was unprecedented.

00:08You disagree.

00:09But do you think the keys stand up to this time now, knowing that we have all of these

00:16factors in there?

00:18Excellent question, and I'll answer it in a few ways.

00:24One, every four years, people say to me, you have to change your keys.

00:29We have an African-American running.

00:31Never had that.

00:32We have a woman running.

00:33Never had that.

00:34We have social media.

00:36We have the unique situations of 2024.

00:39And my answer is twofold.

00:41One, you can't change a model on the fly.

00:44That's a recipe for error.

00:46Two, the keys are very robust.

00:48Retrospectively, they go all the way back to 1860, you know, when women didn't vote.

00:53Blacks were enslaved.

00:54We were an agricultural economy.

00:56There were no polls, no automobiles, no jet planes.

01:02Fundamentally different demography, society, economy, politics.

01:06Finally, you know, I'm not so arrogant as to claim that, you know, nothing outside the

01:13keys can be so unprecedented to shake things up outside the context of the keys.

01:19Absolutely.

01:20I'm not psychic Gene Dixon with a crystal ball.

01:22I'm not speaker Mike Johnson who claims the almighty speaks to him.

01:27My system is based on history.

01:29And we do have some very extraordinary situations.

01:33We have one candidate on the one hand about whom there are legitimate questions about

01:38his capabilities, and we have a convicted felon who is directly threatened to destroy

01:45American democracy.

01:46You know, he said, I'll be a dictator only on day one.

01:50Well, every dictator in the history of the world who's been a dictator on day one has

01:55been a dictator forever.

01:56So we do have some very extraordinary situations outside the context of the keys.

02:02I don't change my keys.

02:03I can't do that.

02:04But I do recognize that I'm not so arrogant as to claim nothing else could affect an election.

02:12What keys do you think are still up in the air?

02:15Because President Biden has said again to in a letter to Congress, he's not leaving

02:21the race.

02:22He said it again on Morning Joe today.

02:24So as of now, it does look like it's going to be President Biden versus former President

02:28Trump.

02:29What keys are up in the air today?

02:32Yeah, great question.

02:34Remember, the keys are always measured against the White House party.

02:40The opposition doesn't win or lose keys.

02:43And if six or more go against the White House party, they're predicted losers.

02:47Right now, Biden is definitively down two keys.

02:51Key one, the mandate based on losses in the US House in 2022.

02:57And key 12, incumbent charisma, he's no FDR or Teddy Roosevelt.

03:03And one of the four shaky keys that your audience should follow, third party.

03:09My basic rule of thumb is the only point in which I have to use the polls because I

03:13don't know what the final result is going to be, obviously.

03:18But I don't just take the polls at face value.

03:20We have the Lickman wasted vote syndrome.

03:23I love you, RFK Jr., but you can't win so I won't vote for you.

03:26So I have the rule of halves.

03:29He's got to poll at 5% or more, which means in the pre-election polls, he's got to stabilize

03:35at 10% or more.

03:37Political unrest.

03:38Will there be a new explosion comparable to what we saw in the 60s or during the Black

03:42Lives Matter movement?

03:44And finally, foreign slash military failure and success, which are going to turn on what

03:51happens in the wars in the Middle East and in Ukraine, as I said, at least in the short

03:57term.

03:58The thing to look for that could change the keys and change the narrative and shift the

04:03polls again would be if Biden manages to broker a ceasefire in Gaza and a hostage release.

'Keys To The White House' Creator Reveals Which Factors Are Still Up In The Air For 2024 Contest

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