This Is What Democrats Must Do To Win If Biden Leaves 2024 Race: Top Historian

2 months ago

On "Forbes Newsroom," Prof. Allan Lichtman discussed what Democrats must do to win if President Biden leaves the 2024 race.

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Transcript

00:00Biden has continuously vowed to stay in the race after a devastating debate performance nearly two

00:05weeks ago. Brought you on because you have successfully predicted many of our latest

00:11presidents at based on your 13 keys to the White House. So based on that criteria,

00:17what do you think President Biden should do? You know, one thing that all of those critics,

00:24operatives, the politicians, the journalists, the pundits, the pollsters

00:28who are urging President Biden to step down, the one thing they have in common is zero successful

00:35track record in predicting elections. My keys to the White House, in contrast, have been successful

00:42for 40 years since I first predicted Ronald Reagan's real election in April 1982 in the

00:51midst of what was then the worst recession since the Great Depression and Reagan's approval ratings

00:57were 43. Unlike the pundits and the political operatives, the keys actually gauge how elections

01:04really work, which are votes up or down on the strength and performance of the White House party.

01:10And the way it works is if six or more of the keys go against the White House party, they are

01:16predicted losers. And the keys show the Democrats' best chance is with Biden continuing to run

01:24rather than with the critics, who have no credibility in election prediction, want him to do

01:29to step down and have a big party brawl about who his successor should be. Biden ticks off

01:36my incumbency key and the party contest key won 87 percent of the primary vote. That means of the

01:45remaining 11 keys, six would have to fall to predict the Democrats' defeat. We follow the

01:50critics. We lose the incumbency key for the Democrats. They lose the party contest key. That

01:57means only four more keys would have to fall to predict their defeat. But look outside the keys.

02:03Look at history. In over 120 years since 1900, the White House party has never, I repeat, never won

02:11under the conditions the critics are trying to create. An open seat with no incumbent running

02:18and an internal party contest. In effect, they are trying to recreate the conditions of 2016

02:26that elected Donald Trump in the first place. So what you're saying politically for Democrats,

02:32their best play is to let this new cycle run its course, have President Biden stay in the race.

02:38That's right. But I have a plan B. Yeah, these foolhardy critics prevail and they force Biden

02:47to step down, which, you know, I certainly don't advocate. But let's say it happens.

02:53The worst thing that could happen would be if he stays on as president, lose the incumbency

02:58key and there's a party fight. But the plan B would be he resigns the presidency saying it's

03:06for the good of the country, which creates a contrast with Donald Trump, who's only in this

03:12for himself. That makes Harris the president. She then wins the incumbency key, just like Lyndon

03:19Johnson did in 1964 when he became president after the assassination of Kennedy, when Gerald Ford

03:28in 1976, after he became president with Richard Nixon, resigns the direct analog. And then as

03:37the incumbent president, she could become the consensus nominee. So he'd also kick off the

03:44contest key. So that is the only reasonable plan B for the Democrats. Are you listening,

03:52Gerald Nadler, you know, one of the most influential Democrats of my old debate partner

03:58from Stuyvesant High School in New York City? Well, I hope he's listening to you just for

04:04viewership purposes. But with all due respect, Lyndon Johnson did have more time as an incumbent.

04:11Let's say the plan B works. Kamala Harris is president for just a few months.

04:17Is that enough for that incumbency key to really stick?

04:23Well, when you read my book, you'll see the definition is you're the sitting president.

04:29There's no time limit. You know, Gerald Ford wasn't the sitting president all that long,

04:35obviously much longer than Harris would be or Lyndon Johnson, you know, both with less than

04:41half a term. So that would not affect the key one way or the other. And you also can follow

04:52the definitions of the keys and ask questions on my live show every Thursday at 9 p.m.

04:58at Alan Lichtman YouTube. That's 9 p.m. Eastern every Thursday at Alan Lichtman YouTube.

This Is What Democrats Must Do To Win If Biden Leaves 2024 Race: Top Historian

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