MLB Friday and Weekend Best Bets | Predictions | Analysis
Category
🥇
SportsTranscript
00:00The final weekend of Major League Baseball action before the all-star break.
00:05Now, it's the unofficial midway point of the year because we're well past 90 games of 162 in this MLB regular season.
00:13But still, it allows us that time to reset everything for the home stretch following the mid-summer Classic.
00:20One final set. Some have already started. Three game sets that start today on this Friday.
00:26And DRS potentially none bigger than the one we are going to see in Baltimore
00:30between the two top teams in the American League East, the Orioles and the Yankees.
00:35If you would have told us the Yankees dropped two of three games against the Rays,
00:39that the Pinskripes have lost 17 of their last 23 in Baltimore right before this set,
00:45had won eight of their last 13 hosting the Chicago Cubs for a three-game set inside Camden Yards,
00:51we would have said, man, Baltimore's probably up by five and a half, six games in the American League East
00:55before the all-star break. No, just a two-game advantage as the O's were swept at home by the Chicago Cubs
01:03during their midweek set. And today, it's not expected to get any easier for the Orioles.
01:08They're the home underdog against Garrett Cole and the Yankees.
01:11Yeah, you see that nine there, and you say to yourself, okay, Yankees bats, Baltimore bats, we're a sign-up,
01:16including the pitching matchup we'll get to in just a few moments.
01:18But I don't know what's going on with that Baltimore offense that has been so prolific.
01:22And granted, we understand baseball's a long season. You're going to go through lulls in your offense.
01:26You're going to go through lulls on your pitching staff and your bullpen.
01:28It just seems to be happening at the wrong time for the Orioles.
01:31But this is a massive matchup. If we take a look at Cade Povich, who does most of his innings,
01:35or I should say, pitched most of his innings on the road this year.
01:38But if we are looking here, Ben, at just the past 60 days with a minimum total of 20 innings pitched,
01:44Povich is the worst pitcher on the card today. How about this?
01:48You know, I talk about that XFIP minus number. 100 is the baseline. Below that, very good.
01:53Above that, not so good. He's got a 147. So again, 100 is average. He's a 147.
01:58You take a look at his ERA over those 60 days, if you're into that, 6.51.
02:03You want to take a look at his XFIP number. When we talk about that, it's similar to ERA.
02:06Like, you want that 350 or less. He's at a 5.99. So effectively, he's at a 6 XFIP number.
02:12Now granted, you look at that Yankees lineup that hasn't been sensational over the past 30 days.
02:17Judge, Soto, Torres, who does have a high ISO power number, and also Jones,
02:22who only has 13 at-bats against left-handed pitching with some decent numbers.
02:25It doesn't show that great. But Povich has been really bad against lefty and righty batters as a left-handed pitcher.
02:30You flip it over to Baltimore. Yes, their lineup typically shows very good against right-handed pitchers.
02:35And we don't technically know what we're still getting out of Garrett Cole.
02:38But having said that, I really know it looks like what I'm getting out of Povich, which isn't a great pitcher.
02:43Their offense has been struggling. There's a chance that we get five to six innings pitched
02:46that are quality out of Garrett Cole, and that should be enough.
02:49I like the Yankees tonight in Baltimore. Crazy, man.
02:53They are slipping down here, and we might even see a role reversal in the AL East race here
02:59by the time we get to the All-Star break. That would be crazy. But I like the Yanks tonight.
03:02Put a pin in it right now. Before this final weekend set of the first half, before the All-Star break begins,
03:09Baltimore has a two-game advantage over New York.
03:12The O's minus one-three to win the division. The Pinstripes even money, plus 100.
03:17These two clubs, of course, divisional rivals, have already met seven times this year.
03:22And Baltimore has had New York's number. They've won five of seven.
03:26A four-game set in May inside Camden. The O's won three of four just about three weeks ago up in the Bronx at Yankee Stadium.
03:34Baltimore won the final two games of that three-game series to win the set.
03:39So Baltimore has had the upper hand on New York, but Donnie, how much can change in three weeks?
03:44Even after losing the series against Baltimore about three weeks ago,
03:49the Yankees had a game-and-a-half lead over the Orioles in the division.
03:53Now the O's in front by two games. Again, the Yankees have dropped 17 of their last 23 games
04:00entering this set against the Baltimore Orioles.
04:03Now we go to another American League East team that's back to 10 games above .500, the Red Sox.
04:08Tanner Houck in the final game of their series against the A's yesterday at home.
04:13Absolutely dealing. Six innings of two-hit baseball.
04:16Shutout work against Oakland. Boston wins seven zip.
04:20Now they welcome in the Kansas City Royals.
04:22This is a series I will be in attendance for tomorrow afternoon on a Saturday in Beantown.
04:29My first-ever trip to Fenway in game number one.
04:31No starter named as of this moment, at least according to FanDuel.
04:35For Boston, Cole Reagans out there for KC. Reagans an all-star for the Royals this year.
04:41Yes, and also Reagans has been a very good pitcher this season.
04:44Now also, we've been blessed with some really good weather conditions on the East Coast.
04:47Forget about some of the rain that we're getting in that, you know,
04:49tri-state area of New York, Delaware, and also Pennsylvania.
04:54Let's take a look at this though. 81 degrees, wind blowing out the dense center field at 10 miles an hour.
04:58That's always tough at Fenway to deal with.
05:00But if we're taking a look at Cole Reagans here from his just away starts,
05:04he's actually done very well. You take a look at him here.
05:07How about this? A 3.04 ERA, which equates to a 3.42 XFib through 50.1 innings pitched this season on the road.
05:15That's really good. That'll help you out.
05:16And right now, we're showing for the Boston Red Sox, Cooper Criswell is the starting pitcher.
05:21Now granted, doesn't have a lot of starts over the past 30 days,
05:24but on the season, 218 batters.
05:26He's face-bent at 155 ISO, which you'll take that, and a manageable weighted-on-base percentage of 3.07.
05:3310 runs it takes to get to that total, but it's so tough in a ballpark there.
05:37Like we talk about so many times, like you say, in Philadelphia, you need great pitching.
05:41I think you're going to get solid pitching on both sides, which does lend itself to an under.
05:46So until we see the official starting lineups here, which include the pitchers,
05:50you probably have a slight lean towards the under,
05:52but that could change depending who's on the mound here for Boston.
05:56Nine is the total. Some storms in the Northeast.
05:59I'm a little bit worried about the game tomorrow,
06:01scheduled to start around 4 p.m. Eastern time, with some storms predicted in Boston.
06:06Hope I can get there. Never been to Fenway. Very, very excited.
06:10And the Red Sox could be rolling into that game on Saturday.
06:14Speaking of a team on a roll, the fork is gone. It is broken.
06:18It might never come out again.
06:20The Houston Astros, 49-44, five games above .500.
06:24The most they have been above .500 all season long.
06:29Houston has won 16 of its last 20 games.
06:31An in-state showdown, a divisional rivalry,
06:34as they get ready to host the Texas Rangers, the reigning World Series champs,
06:38this weekend in H-Town. Minus 148.
06:41Now the updated number on the Astros, total at eight.
06:44What do you like for the start of this set between Texas and Houston?
06:49This is a big series. It certainly is.
06:50As you're going to see a couple of those here,
06:52heading into that, what we call the unofficial halfway point at the all-star break.
06:55Some of these teams getting momentum, which is what you want.
06:58Some of these teams going to be losing steam, which is certainly not what you want.
07:01You take a look at Andrew Heaney on the mound, going up against Hunter Brown.
07:04You used to say to yourself, not really household names,
07:06but both of these guys have been in decent form over the past 60 days.
07:09And also taking a look at that Houston offense going up against left-handed pitching.
07:13It hasn't fared all that well. Altuve's done well, Bregman's done well, and Dubon has done well.
07:18The rest of that lineup, not so much against left-handed pitching.
07:20And also keep in mind, Andrew Heaney, maybe had a little bit of a rough start to the season.
07:24Past 30 days, 119 batters he's faced, a 148 iso and a weighted-on-base percentage of 297.
07:30That sets up pretty well. Flip it over to Hunter Brown.
07:32How about this, Ben, over the past 30 days?
07:34An 060 iso and a weighted-on-base percentage of 264.
07:39Feels a little bit like playoff baseball.
07:41Even though that's a true hitter's ballpark,
07:43I'm leaning more towards the under than a side in this one.
07:46Not just an in-state showdown, not just divisional foes.
07:50Of course, a rematch of last year's ALCS.
07:52These two teams have faced each other seven times this year.
07:56Houston's won four, Texas has won three.
07:59The Astros, winners of 16 of their last 20.
08:01The Rangers looking a little bit better.
08:03A little bit more like the ilk of a World Series champ defending that crown.
08:08They've won seven of their last 10, but still five games below 500.
08:12Houston only two games back of Seattle for the top spot in the American League West.
08:17The Guardians lost three of four against the Tigers,
08:20but still because the O's have struggled,
08:22maintain that best record in the American League.
08:25They're on the road tonight in the trop where the Rays are a home favorite.
08:28The Rays, better baseball as well with a victory today as the odds expect.
08:33Tampa back to 500 for the first time in a while.
08:36You saw it yesterday.
08:37We talked about a game where they had the Cleveland Guardians
08:39going up against a team that you thought might be inferior in Detroit.
08:42And I told you Detroit was the better team yesterday and won.
08:44You might see that number again pop up today.
08:46Sign me up. Cleveland Guardians getting plus money.
08:49Don't do it. Taj Bradley this season at home,
08:52one of the best pitchers in Major League Baseball.
08:55Take a look at this, Ben. 41 innings pitched at home this year.
08:58An ERA 1.76, an XFIP of 2.56.
09:02Carlos Carrasco hasn't been near the pitcher that Taj Bradley has been,
09:05at least analytically here. You know what's going to happen today?
09:08The Rays are going to beat the Guardians
09:10and that slide is going to continue for another day.
09:13The World Series favorites, the LA Dodgers,
09:15might go stumbling into the all-star break.
09:18Swept this week in Philadelphia and resoundingly so by the Philz.
09:24LA was the underdog in all three games at the bank,
09:27as you might expect, against the Philz.
09:29They lost all three, eight times still only this year for the Dodgers.
09:33Booked as an underdog in just two and six straight up.
09:37But an underdog in Detroit?
09:40That can only mean one thing.
09:42Terrence Scouble is on the bump for the Tigers.
09:45Detroit's won eight of its last 11 games
09:48as well. Donnie, will the Dodgers bounce back
09:51or is this the worst spot you could hope to kind of show some resilience
09:55against the American League's Cy Young frontrunner?
09:58Yeah, man, on the road, licking your wounds after leaving Philadelphia
10:01and saying, all right, whew, we get the Big Maple on the mound.
10:03Let's see what we can do against the lowly Detroit Tigers.
10:06And then you get Terrence Scouble,
10:07when he may be the best pitcher in Major League Baseball to counter you.
10:11That's not going to be great.
10:12If you just take a look at numbers, first of all,
10:14we understand how talented that lineup is for the Dodgers,
10:16one through nine, still without Mookie Betts.
10:18It's much more talented than the Detroit Tigers,
10:20but you could argue that same thing yesterday.
10:22The Tigers weren't as talented as the plate going up against the Guardians,
10:25still won the game.
10:25Why? Because the pitcher is so much better on the mound.
10:28You take a look at Terrence Scouble this year,
10:30and if we're just going on home starts alone,
10:32since once again, the game is in Detroit, he's been fantastic.
10:35How about this? A 1.74 ERA at home through 51 and two-thirds innings,
10:40a 3.05 X, so a little bit higher,
10:43but still, it's in that very good grade. You flip it over to Paxton,
10:47one of those guys you've heard me talk about quite a bit this year.
10:49Sometimes you just take a look at that ERA and say to yourself,
10:52well, he should be pretty good,
10:53but the X-fifth numbers and the analytical numbers are sky high.
10:56Why? Walks too many batters, doesn't strike out enough,
10:58and gives up fly balls. That's a recipe for disaster.
11:01Even though that Detroit lineup is not very good against left-handed pitching,
11:05I still think Detroit wins this game, but more importantly,
11:08I think we stay under the total in this game.
11:10A few runs out of Detroit could be enough to beat the mighty Dodger bats here.
11:14So there you go.
11:16The Tigers not the greatest offensively. Yesterday, though, plating 12.
11:20Matt Vierling was great two days ago. Riley Green, three ribbies yesterday,
11:24and the big victory for the Tigers. Again, they swept the Reds over the weekend.
11:28They take three of four against the team atop their own division
11:31in the American League Central, the Cleveland Guardians.
11:34Tarek Skrubal in his most recent start, 13 Ks, I believe it was on Sunday.
11:39His strikeout prop today against LA, just six and a half.
11:42The over has the heavy juice.
11:44Now, a couple of months ago during the college basketball season,
11:47I took issue with a game played in Tulsa, Oklahoma,
11:51between the Memphis Tigers and I believe it was Tulsa, called a Midwest matchup.
11:56I take issue here with the Atlanta Braves in San Diego. East versus West?
12:03Does anybody consider Atlanta East? South, I would get. Southeast, oh, no, it's not.
12:11You were telling our producer Joe Frizzo.
12:15All right, I'll let that one pass. That National League East versus National League West.
12:20The Braves minus 118 as a road favorite in San Diego.
12:25They were right at a four-game win streak,
12:26were the Atlanta Braves DRS, before they lost the final two games in Arizona.
12:31The Padres, they were looking pretty good before meeting the D-backs over the weekend.
12:36Now a home underdog against Atlanta. By the way, I do believe back in the day,
12:40the Atlanta Braves were in the NL West and in the NFL,
12:43the Atlanta Falcons were also in the Western Conference or the Western Division,
12:47which is kind of crazy that you think about it here.
12:49And why the Dallas Cowboys are in the NFC East, don't get me started on that at all.
12:53There's plenty of time next week to argue the merits of that.
12:56If we take a look at this game, yeah, exactly.
12:58We're loading up next week with topics that we don't want to spoil this week.
13:02Spencer Schwellenbach on the mound. Last time we saw him, Ben,
13:04very good outing against the Philadelphia Phillies.
13:05We'll see if that continues today. But the question is going to be,
13:08Randy Vazquez, the pitcher on the mound for the San Diego Padres,
13:11can he hold up against the Atlanta Braves? Now, when we say hold up,
13:15what does that mean? Two, three runs that the Braves typically have going up against that roster.
13:19I do think they're in a decent bounce-back spot because Vazquez at home this year,
13:2331 and two-thirds innings pitched, a 3.41 ERA, which isn't bad.
13:27But you take a look at that X-fifth number at home, it balloons up to close to five,
13:31which once again means too many walks, not enough strikeouts, too many fly balls here.
13:35If we're lining this up and maybe Schwellenbach just needed a couple starts to calm down,
13:39he should be going up against a lineup that is really talented from San Diego.
13:43Keep in mind also, some of the reports coming out today that we are expected to get back,
13:48Xander Bogarts, into the lineup. That could be a boost for that.
13:51We'll see if that comes up, but I'm going to trust the Atlanta Braves.
13:54Bounce-back spot here, low-scoring game. Those are the games where you trust the Braves.
13:59The Braves did not score a single run yesterday, shut down by Brandon Fott.
14:03Again, Eugenio Suarez, the only run yesterday in Arizona.
14:08The Diamondbacks will play host to the Toronto Blue Jays.
14:11We'll talk about that game in just a moment.
14:13Let's go to the northern part of California.
14:15That's the San Francisco Giants taking on the Minnesota Twins.
14:18The Twins, a minus-142 favorite, total at seven-and-a-half that barely creeped over yesterday.
14:26Now, the Guardians still have a four-and-a-half game lead in the American League Central,
14:30but the Twins, only four-and-a-half games back. Could be a big weekend for the Twins.
14:36The Guardians, they rode underdog to start their weekend set today in the Trop—
14:40in the Trop—excuse me, the Twins, they rode favorite by the Bay against the Giants.
14:44Yeah, Twins, by the way, road starts here for Joe Ryan this year.
14:4755-innings pitch, you got a pretty good, nice, back-tested number,
14:50a 2.78 ERA and an XFIP of 3.38.
14:54And also, you're not going on the road here and sounding like,
14:56oh, I don't know how it's going to hold up in Colorado or Philadelphia.
14:58You're pitching in one of the best pitchers' ballparks in Major League Baseball.
15:02That's going to help. And what do we love about the Minnesota batters here going up against lefties?
15:06Typical lineups will struggle. That is not the case here for the Minnesota Twins.
15:10How about if I told you eight of the nine projected batters,
15:14all 325 or higher, weighted on base percentages.
15:17The only one that's below is Jose Miranda.
15:19Everybody else, listen to this, 650, 689, 460, 478, 618, 329, 482, and 366.
15:28Minnesota today, the better pitcher on the mound and the better lineup
15:31that should equate to a victory out in San Francisco.
15:34Keep an eye on the Rook for Minnesota.
15:36Brooks Lee, two home runs already in his nine Major League Baseball career games,
15:41plus 170 to record a ribbie tonight.
15:44I mentioned this game, the Arizona Diamondbacks' home favorite against the Toronto Blue Jays.
15:48The Jays taking the final two games of a set in San Francisco.
15:52What do you like in Phoenix?
15:54Yeah, in Phoenix, we should get some runs here, particularly from the Toronto Blue Jays.
15:57Ryan Nelson, one of the pitchers that I do love to fade at home, 35-innings pitch, Ben.
16:01How about an ERA of 6.69 and an XFIP number of 4.83?
16:06On your roster tonight, Springer, Horowitz, and Guerrero should be there
16:10for some RBI opportunities for those Toronto Blue Jays.
16:14I can't wait to see what the Blue Jays do in the next few weeks.
16:17Again, they're at the basement of the American League East,
16:19seven games below 543-50 with an incredibly talented roster.
16:24Might they look to sell at the deadline?
16:27We shall see.
16:28The Cardinals had an interesting week.
16:31It was a show-me-state showdown against the Kansas City Royals,
16:34but game number one was rained out, so they played a doubleheader on Wednesday.
16:39That was really the only action for the Redbirds.
16:41Now they get ready to host a four-game set in only three days
16:45before the All-Star break against the Chicago Cubs.
16:48A doubleheader and a make-up game tomorrow on a Saturday.
16:53St. Louis has been playing pretty good baseball as of late,
16:55despite losing both of the games in the doubleheader against KC at home.
17:00They've still won 12 of their last 19 since the end of June.
17:05Chicago playing really good baseball, sweeping the O's on the road.
17:09Winners of four straight, winners of six of their last seven,
17:13and yet with Sonny Gray on the bump today under the arch,
17:16St. Louis booked as nearly a $2 favorite at home.
17:19Will the odds be the result at the end of the game?
17:23If you're looking, again, this is why we love baseball, man.
17:25Day-to-day, it's just about the pitchers on the mound
17:27and how they match up with each other.
17:28You can't say with a straight face,
17:30oh, look at that, the Chicago Cubs just went in and torched
17:33one of the best teams in baseball.
17:34They should be able to handle St. Louis,
17:36and getting that much of a price, here's the reason why.
17:39Take a look at Sonny Gray, he's going to be on the mound today
17:40for the St. Louis Cardinals at home this year, Ben.
17:43Absolutely phenomenal. 52 innings pitched.
17:45How about a 1.90 ERA and an XFIP of 2.58?
17:49Say, wow, that's really good.
17:50How are we going to counter that with Kyle Hendricks on the mound?
17:53Well, just take a look at his road home splits here.
17:55On the road for him, 33 and two-thirds innings pitched.
17:59Typically, you'd say to yourself, like, man,
18:00it must be a joy to get out of Wrigley, right?
18:02You pitch much better.
18:03How about an 8.55 ERA and an XFIP over 5?
18:06You look at that St. Louis lineup today.
18:09They should be able to torch.
18:11Weather conditions, not going to help out all that much.
18:13Windy, wind conditions-wise.
18:14Four miles an hour from right foul pole to left foul pole.
18:17Mid-80s temperatures.
18:18But there is a distinct pitching mismatch on the mound today.
18:21And in baseball, your momentum is only as good as your starting pitcher the next day.
18:26The better starting pitcher is with St. Louis.
18:28They'll win this game.
18:30A full slate on this Friday.
18:33A full weekend around Major League Baseball.
18:35The first half unofficially of this year comes to a close on Sunday evening.
18:41Then we get into the all-star break.
18:43The next time we speak, it will be Monday.
18:45We'll be previewing the Home Run Derby.
18:47We'll be looking back at the weekend that was
18:49and using the time to reset at the all-star break
18:53for what we can expect down the home stretch of 162 games in this Major League Baseball season.
19:00Donny, as you look around the weekend slate in MLB,
19:02of course, there's the series in Baltimore between the Orioles and the Yankees.
19:07What are the Phils going to do to add to their lead against the Oakland Athletics?
19:11Can the Dodgers bounce back from being swept this week in Philadelphia, this weekend in Detroit?
19:17What series above all is going to get your most attention?
19:20I don't know if it's a singular series, but I just want to see how some of those,
19:24because sometimes you forget about it, Ben.
19:26You check the standings like at the end of the weekend.
19:28I'm really going to check them this week to see how they project.
19:31You just want to see some of those baseball teams.
19:33Like if you are watching in one series, it's probably the Yankees and the Orioles
19:36because if you have a good series by the Yankees,
19:39that normally is going to propel them back into the lead.
19:41But also, that's a devastating slide for the Orioles
19:44that we were talking about the beginning of the week.
19:46They could be up five-plus games.
19:48That would be crisis mode in Baltimore at that point.
19:50Yeah.
19:52It's a really good point.
19:53I'm also going to keep an eye on the New York Mets.
19:55They're now into a wildcard spot.
19:57Time for the third and final wildcard spot with the San Diego Padres
20:01after sweeping the Nationals and plating seven
20:03and blanking the Nats yesterday at home at Citi Field.
20:08The Grimace Mets are here to stay.
20:11Since Grimace threw out the first pitch way back on,
20:14I believe it was June 12th.
20:17The Mets are currently 19-8 in that time frame.
20:24All right, now a best bet to send you into the weekend.
20:26Before we say farewell, before we say goodbye,
20:29it is time for Bye Bye Bye.
20:35Bye, bye, bye.
20:37Joe Lisi makes another impact here on the show.
20:41Donnie, I know you got a baseball best bet
20:42to set the stage for this weekend.
20:44What is it and why?
20:46I was going to go to Philadelphia with our guy,
20:48oh yeah, Hogan Harris, brother,
20:50but he's going to get chopped up there pretty easily.
20:53But we are actually going to go with Aaron Judge
20:56to get an RBI to minus 110 price.
20:58The worst pitcher on the card today,
20:59I told you, is Cade Povich at a 147 X-fit minus.
21:03Aaron Judge hammers left-handed pitching.
21:04He'll get that RBI.
21:06So brothers in arms, these Pythons are going to lead us to victory.