Analisis dan Rekomendasi Saham Pilihan di Awal Pekan
"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Power Breakfast, Senin (15/07/2024) dengan Tema Analisis dan Rekomendasi Saham Pilihan di Awal Pekan".
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00:00Thank you for joining us, Minister, and I'm still talking with Mr. Wan Hendrayana, Vice President of Infovesta.
00:06And we're going to take a look at Samsung's choices this time.
00:09From Mr. Wan, the choice is Samsung Banking because it's entering the earning season.
00:13And then, Mr. Wan also said or projected that it looks like the performance will be good, right, Mr. Wan?
00:21There are BBCA and also BBRI from the banking sector that are recommended.
00:25Then there are also international assets and also ICBP.
00:29We will discuss first, Mr. Wan, what is the complete analysis of BBCA?
00:33Yes, this year's BBCA, when the banks experienced a sell-off by foreign investors,
00:40this is the most defensive stock because when other stocks were corrected by more than 20%,
00:47BBCA stocks were only corrected by 10% and now it has returned to the level above Rp10,000.
00:54And if it's true that the financial performance is good, the project is very good,
01:00BBCA is one of the double-digit credit growth from the big four.
01:05So, generally for BBCA, the target for this year is still at Rp11,000 for the price.
01:12So right now it's back to Rp10,000, Rp10,100.
01:15It can still be a buy accumulation for investors.
01:21And the risk is also relatively lower this year compared to other banks.
01:26Yes, in terms of picture, maybe if we talk about the work of BBCA itself,
01:31which has created a profit of Rp21.6 trillion in 5 months, it grew by 11.6%.
01:38It means that in terms of semesters, this will be positive in terms of accumulatives in the earnings season later, Mr. Wan.
01:47Yes, with the latest data up to May, it's even above the actual target.
01:55Above the guidance from BBCA itself.
01:58So in June, I think it will still track like that.
02:03And if it can be maintained, BBCA will definitely reach its revenue target this year.
02:10Okay, the last level at Rp10,075, do you recommend a buy for BBCA or what?
02:17Yes, BBCA is a buy accumulation from Rp10,000 to Rp10,100.
02:21It can be done if there is a weakness, usually a decrease, it can be a weakness for BBCA.
02:30Okay, Mr. Wan, in terms of valuation for BBCA itself, it's still cheap compared to other peers.
02:36Because then there are other fundamental benefits.
02:39If the fundamentals are really good, no matter how much it costs, it's just reasonable.
02:44Or what do you think, Mr. Wan?
02:47Yes, at the moment, I still recommend seeing three things.
02:53One is fundamental, where BBCA will definitely be good.
02:58Then also the business prospect is still very good for BBCA.
03:01The third is liquidity.
03:03Liquidity is important, why?
03:05Because at the moment, the market movement in Indonesia,
03:08no matter what, there are still a lot of foreign funds in the form of funds.
03:13If this fund, when it wants to enter the stock market, the first focus is on liquidity.
03:19So as long as the liquidity is good, foreign funds can enter.
03:22Usually the price of the stock market can increase when foreigners enter Indonesia.
03:27Okay, what is the target price for BBCA, sir?
03:30This year it reaches Rp11,000.
03:32Okay, a buy accumulation for long or short mid-investment?
03:38For BBCA, I still recommend a long mid-investment.
03:44If we talk about the three-year target, it will definitely reach Rp12,500 for BBCA.
03:50But for this year, at least from this point, the target is still around 10%.
03:57Okay, from BBCA we go to other stocks that are quite often considered favorable
04:03from the point of view of investors, there is BBRI.
04:06What is the complete analysis like, Mr. Wawan?
04:09Yes, BBRI is a business that is worried when the NPL is afraid to rise,
04:17especially with the condition that BBRI's focus is on MSMEs.
04:23But no matter what, BBRI is a very strong fundamental bank.
04:28And the latest financial report also shows very good profitability
04:33and also the risk that has been mitigated.
04:35Because like that, after a correction of almost 30% this year from the highest point,
04:42BBRI's valuation is still cheap at the moment, below Rp5,000.
04:48Indeed, if we talk about the last month, it has appreciated more than 20%,
04:54but it is still very open for BBRI this year to return to at least the Rp5,500 level.
05:01So, for me, in the long run, I still recommend accumulating BBRI as well.
05:07What is the normal price level of BBRI?
05:10If 49% is still considered cheap for BBRI?
05:16Yes, for the normal PBV, if we compare it to the fact that yesterday there was a very massive sales pressure from foreign investors,
05:24then the normal PBV is around Rp5,500.
05:30So, it can be a level that can be chased for BBRI.
05:33Okay, there are still disparities that can be used like that.
05:36Is it too long for BBRI, sir?
05:39Yes, due to the correction that happened yesterday,
05:44we can't guarantee that suddenly if foreign investors come out again,
05:48this bank will also be the first to be sold.
05:51But the good news is that historically,
05:55especially these big four banks,
06:00if it ever reaches the highest level, it will usually come back again.
06:03It still takes time, but it always happens.
06:06Because fundamentally, they still make good profits.
06:12Okay, from RTI, for BBRI itself, it has strengthened 13.69% for a month.
06:18Then on a weekly basis, it has strengthened 3.16%.
06:23Okay, from BBRI, we turn to Astra International.
06:25Interesting, Mr. Wawan,
06:28especially since you recommended Astra International
06:31in the middle of a few times ago, there was a policy to impose a vehicle restriction,
06:35especially in the context of Jakarta or Big Z,
06:38because the status of DKI is no longer there.
06:40But you still evaluate ASCE as interesting.
06:44What kind of analysis is it, Mr. Wawan?
06:48Yes, for the car sales itself,
06:50we did decrease it compared to 2023.
06:54But if we look at the trend from the monthly side,
06:58there is still an increase in sales.
07:01And Astra remains the market leader.
07:04Especially the Toyota and Daihatsu brands
07:06still dominate 50% more than the automotive market in Indonesia.
07:12Therefore, Astra itself has been corrected
07:15from above IDR 5,000 about 3 months ago.
07:19And now at the level of IDR 4,500,
07:22I think that's an interesting entry point.
07:24Because Astra itself is also diversified.
07:26It's true that there was a concern earlier about what kind of restrictions would occur.
07:30But according to historians,
07:32so far, this policy has never been implemented.
07:37It means that there is still pressure,
07:39both politically and economically,
07:41to implement a vehicle restriction policy
07:45or even a subsidy restriction policy.
07:49And in terms of diversification,
07:52Astra is still in mining, in United Tractors,
07:57then there is also in farming, in ALI.
08:00For UT itself, the intention is still very good.
08:02So this can also be a driver for Astra to return to the level of IDR 5,000.
08:07Okay, what is the trend of vehicles or electric cars
08:11related to Astra?
08:13Because we haven't heard intensely
08:16the brands or brands that are distributed or maybe produced by Astra
08:22haven't carried electric car models yet.
08:26It means that this trend is not there yet.
08:31What do you think? What can be anticipated by this money?
08:35For Astra itself, they prefer to focus on hybrid cars.
08:42PHEVs such as Innova Zeniq whose sales are also quite significant.
08:47I think Astra will be more interested in focusing on hybrid cars first
08:53because for electric cars, the trend and animo are starting to grow.
08:59But in terms of infrastructure that is needed,
09:01especially if Astra wants to sell nationally,
09:04I think outside of big cities,
09:07electric car sales will still be limited.
09:09So the focus of Astra is still on hybrid cars first.
09:12That's what I see.
09:14Okay, the sales of Astra cars in June 2024
09:18have increased by 6.3%.
09:21The latest price is IDR 4,500-4,000.
09:23Interesting, right?
09:24For Astra to enter. What was the recommendation earlier, sir?
09:27Buy.
09:28For IDR 4,500, buy.
09:31For the end of this year target, IDR 5,000.
09:34Okay, from Astra International, we go to ICBP.
09:37What is the analysis like, sir?
09:39ICBP was hit by a strong dollar until IDR 16,400.
09:46Because one of the costs from ICBP is to import wheat.
09:51And the price of wheat has increased, plus the dollar has also increased.
09:55So this is a combo.
09:57But with the trend that the dollar has started to stabilize,
10:01then the price of wheat has also started to stabilize.
10:06This is very positive for ICBP.
10:07Moreover, this year, the consumption of the Indonesian community will naturally increase.
10:12Because there is a political year.
10:14At the beginning of the year, there will be a bill price.
10:17Then later in Q3, Q4, there will also be an effect from the balance sheet.
10:23So ICBP will be very beneficial if there is a strong cash flow in the community.
10:28So at the current level, at IDR 10,300,
10:32it can be done by buying and accumulating.
10:35The end of the year target is around IDR 11,000.
10:38Okay, because in terms of the month, it has decreased by 2.81%.
10:41And in the week, it has decreased by 0.24%.
10:44So for ICBP, it can be used to enter a fairly discounted level for ICBP.
10:50Is the mid-term too long for ICBP, sir?
10:53Yes, it's the same. I always suggest that the ideal stock is for the mid-term.
11:00There is nothing wrong with short-term trading.
11:03But it must be accompanied by risk mitigation, such as a disciplined cut loss.
11:08Okay, from the consumer goods sector, you recommend ICBP as an interesting sector.
11:15Then how about the retail sector, including the election season, Mr. Wawan?
11:21Is the value of this also interesting or like what?
11:25Yes, retail sales will always be interesting
11:27when there is a strong cash flow in the community.
11:33In this month, it has started to enter the first month of school.
11:38Usually, inflation will increase in July-August.
11:43So even though in July, the ISK tends to strengthen.
11:48But in August, the ISK will usually have a correction.
11:52Reflecting the increase in inflation.
11:55So for a longer-term investor, this can be an interesting accumulation.
12:02Because in Q4, especially in September, the index usually moves positively.
12:09It welcomes full-year activity.
12:12So I see that this is a good opportunity to start accumulating.
12:17And in August, especially in September, if there is a correction, investors can enter.
12:22And profit-taking is ideal if it is to be done at the end or at the beginning of the year.
12:28Okay, Mr. Wawan, we still have one segment.
12:30We will continue in the next segment.
12:32And you are still with us, we will be back soon.
12:34Thank you for still joining us.
12:36You and I are still talking with Mr. Wawan Hendrayana, Vice President of Infovesta.
12:40Mr. Wawan, the rotation of the sector in the past week,
12:43then there was a rise in property and also the shares of BUMN Karya
12:48also had positive movements in the past week.
12:51What do you think this week's projections for these sectors are like, Mr. Wawan?
12:56Yes, for BUMN Karya in particular, there is an increase in capital from the government.
13:04So they experience quite a high appreciation, quite significant.
13:10But investors must be aware that with this very high increase,
13:16it is very likely that there will be a profit-taking action first.
13:18Maybe in terms of trends, it can strengthen again.
13:22Because the market will again reflect what the effect of BUMN is like,
13:27then also how the continuation of IKN,
13:29because many of BUMN Karya have projects in IKN.
13:32So if it can be analyzed well,
13:39and the result is that BUMN Karya can grow,
13:44then it is very likely that the shares will rise again.
13:46But investors still have to be careful that the short-term volatility
13:50is very likely to occur in these shares.
13:52The same is true for Samsung Properties.
13:56In terms of trends, when the flower rate rises,
13:59Samsung Properties will tend to be depressed.
14:01And when it rose yesterday,
14:05Samsung Properties was automatically corrected.
14:07But if we see that the flower rate can go down,
14:13then it is very likely that Samsung Properties will be affected
14:16by the ease of KPR issued by the banks,
14:19so that the sales can increase.
14:21Yes, property also strengthens,
14:22this is in line with the expectation response of the flower breed bankruptcy,
14:25when this then becomes a sentiment that is quite sustainable,
14:32supporting the growth of the property sector.
14:37Actually, for the property itself,
14:39it will generally strengthen even with economic growth in Indonesia.
14:43If our economic growth is good,
14:45the general property sector is also selling well.
14:49So, as long as our economic growth is maintained at 5%,
14:53the sale of the property can still be expected.
14:57Still, it may not be as high as 4 or 5 years ago.
15:00And in terms of valuation itself,
15:02Samsung Properties is actually extremely cheap.
15:04BBV is even much below 1.
15:07That's the property emittance share.
15:09But investors also have to understand that it's cheap.
15:12That means there are many investors
15:14who have not yet seen that the property will increase significantly.
15:19So, I still recommend the construction sector
15:24and also property as a diversification if investors want to enter.
15:29We still focus on sectors that are indeed
15:33being benefited by the current economic movement.
15:37Okay.
15:38The infrastructure is also a supporter in PKN Halo,
15:42although the brand tends to weaken.
15:45Telecommunication infrastructure.
15:47This also strengthens when there is Telkom,
15:50then there is also ISA.
15:51This tower is quite strong.
15:53What is your analysis of these sectors?
15:56Infrastructure, especially from the data division,
16:00will definitely experience traffic increases
16:02during the election campaign.
16:05So, it's normal for investors to anticipate
16:08by accumulating on Samsung.
16:12For the brand itself,
16:15in terms of valuation, it's hard to see
16:19if the brand is actually extraordinarily high.
16:22So, what is seen is the money flow.
16:25So far, foreign investors are still holding the brand.
16:28With the existing liquidity,
16:31it can be hoped that one day the brand will return to the main index
16:39from a foreign company such as Fuji or even MSCI.
16:42If that happens, the brand may increase significantly
16:45because the passive fund will enter the sub-brand.
16:50Okay.
16:50Let's take a look at the opening data of the market
16:53a few moments ago,
16:56which we then captured from RTI.
16:59For IDX itself or EISG,
17:01it was 0.02% at level 7329,
17:05still at level 7300,
17:087329.115.
17:10Top gainers so far are PTPP, SMG, RLSA, PTRO, BSDE,
17:14Dadewa, AALI, Leps, and Kepik.
17:18From the top losers, there's Telkom,
17:20then there's ISEA, Acra, Guna, PDPP, Nice,
17:24CTRA, Laba, TCPI, and also Suri.
17:27What's interesting is that Telkom
17:29so far has made it to the top losers.
17:33Mr. Owan, when I was there yesterday, I noted the gain.
17:37What does this indicate, Mr. Owan?
17:41Yes, for Telkom itself,
17:44in terms of revenue and income,
17:46the growth is not as high as expected by investors.
17:50So, because Telkom is quite diversified,
17:55there are several lines of Telkom that are considered difficult to develop.
18:00For example, from the fixed line sector.
18:04So, what is expected is that
18:06Telkom can be transformed into the digital sector,
18:11cloud computing sector,
18:14and also from the towers that have been released to MTEL.
18:21So, investors hope that if there is a new breakthrough in business,
18:26which increases growth to double digits,
18:30then the revenue can increase.
18:32Okay, so it's related to Telkom.
18:35What is the recommendation
18:37related to the latest movement from Telkom, Mr. Owan?
18:40It's still hold for Telkom.
18:43Okay, you may see there is a possibility for further weakening of Telkom, right?
18:49Yes, it may still happen.
18:50Okay, from the IHSG movement,
18:52although at the beginning we discussed your projection of the IHSG movement
18:58this past weekend,
18:59after what happened in the United States
19:02to former US President Donald Trump.
19:06Earlier, the data was opened to strengthen the IHSG movement,
19:09how far did you see the same pattern
19:13until the merger of Nantisore business for the IHSG, Mr. Owan?
19:18Yes, today, especially the IHSG will try to survive above 7,300,
19:23still being the first support.
19:24The second support is at 7,240.
19:27But I see, at least with this opening,
19:32indeed the market has just opened
19:33and the strategy is still thin, still around 600 billion.
19:37But there are already signs of a rebound for the IHSG movement.
19:43So it is very possible for the IHSG to be closed above 7,300 today.
19:48Okay, another thing that we haven't discussed
19:51is related to the acceleration of the development of IKN Nusantara
19:55for related sectors.
19:59What is your view, Mr. Owan?
20:01Yes, earlier, for...
20:03For the construction, right?
20:04Yes, that's right.
20:06The most favorable is the construction,
20:08because they get the PNM,
20:11then also get the project.
20:13So it's like there's already a project,
20:16given funding, just do it.
20:18Of course, with a tight deadline.
20:22So, in the short term,
20:26the movement of the construction sector is relatively positive,
20:29but there must be volatility.
20:32So this is the factor in that matter.
20:34Okay, there are quite a lot of incentives,
20:36there is the PNM and also the acceleration of the development of the IKN.
20:38There should be significant improvements in the future for the construction sector.
20:43Mr. Owan, thank you for joining us
20:46and also what you have just said,
20:48today may be a reference
20:51for the trading strategy for the market players in today's trading.
20:54Good luck to you.
20:55I'm always Mr. Owan, see you.
20:57See you, Mr. Owan.