IHSG +0,32% ke level 7.697,281 di sesi I Kamis (5/9) gagal bertahan di level intraday tertinggi di 7.722, 225. IDX-Property +1,66% dengan ASRI +10,28%, SSIA +8,16%. IDX-Finance 1,52% BBNI +1,40% DNET +8,71%. Sektor energi -0,36% ADRO -1,40%, ITMG -1,36% . Dari konsumer primer saham UNVR sentuh level terendah intraday di Rp2.220 per saham.
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TVTranscript
00:00Thank you for joining us and in this segment, we will review how the trade is going today and we remind you again, you can still participate on WhatsApp Interactive at 0812.8788.723 as shown on your television screen later.
00:22Today, we are joined by Mr. Nikolas Darmawan, Research Analyst at Mesta Indoor Face Security.
00:29We will start with Mr. Nikolas Darmawan. Good evening, how are you?
00:33Good evening, Mr. David. How are you? Thank you.
00:36Thank you, Mr. Nikolas, for taking the time to join us on IDX Channel.
00:41Today, Indekargasam Kabungan experienced a fluctuation like this. Mr. Nikolas went to 7722, then went back to the red zone, then went back to the green zone.
00:54And in the last few minutes of today's closing, its strength is more limited.
01:00How is your review and analysis? Indekargasam Kabungan has broken the record several times, both intraday and closing.
01:11But in the last few trading days, it seems that the opportunity to break the record, both intraday and closing, is quite difficult, Mr. Nikolas.
01:24What is your analysis?
01:26Yes, okay. Maybe from the catalysts this week, we can see that there are quite a lot of major catalysts, especially from the US.
01:36There was a job opening last night. We can see that the job market is starting to swell again.
01:43And this also raises concerns in the market for the recession, which has risen again, although not as bad as last month.
01:52Then on Friday, the market also anticipates non-far payroll data.
01:57Therefore, if we look at it, the IHSG has been sideways since yesterday.
02:02Although it has tried to break out of its all-time high again at level 7,700.
02:09But yesterday it also fell to its low at level 7,550.
02:14So, if we look at it, at least for this period, we expect the IHSG will still move to strengthen the sideways trend.
02:22So, if the strength is limited.
02:25Because if we look at it from the beginning of August, the strength has been quite a lot.
02:31And actually, this also raises concerns in September as well.
02:35Usually, historically, the equity market and others are also tending to be corrected.
02:42And maybe if we look at the correction of the IHSG here, the possibility is that the shape will tend to be more sideways compared to the correction that tends to be a lot like in August.
02:53So, for the strengthening of the IHSG, the trend is still in the bullish, but it is anticipated that in September it will tend to be choppy, sideways, and the tendency is more towards correction.
03:04Maybe like that.
03:05Okay, short term for tomorrow, the weekend holiday, where will it go, Mr. Nikolas?
03:10Okay, for the IHSG, at the end of this weekend, we expect it to be corrected first.
03:14Because if we look at it, it's been 4 days, counting from August 29, there was a candle rejection, especially at the level of 7,700.
03:22So, we expect for the IHSG's lowest level, which was previously at the level of 7,600 to 7,550.
03:29So, we expect at least for this weekend, the price range is low at the level of 7,550 as the price target.
03:37Okay, Mr. Nikolas, some of the stocks that today became a burden for the Samkabungan family came from Sam Sam Pickup.
03:43There was Bren, the day before it became a supporter, today it became a burden.
03:48Sanda's analysis, the short-term and medium-term for Bren, with a weakening of more than 3%.
03:54Even earlier, internally, it was 4% weaker than 4% for Bren, and again left the level of 11,000.
04:01Yes, for Bren itself, actually, we can see from the index correction, it actually started to increase heavily,
04:12because it actually hit a strong resistance at 11,000.
04:16And the all-time high is actually starting to get close, at level 11,849, sorry, at level 12,170.
04:27So, maybe for the short term, if the investment is like what we expected,
04:32it is also possible because we think the trend to the index is quite big, the weight now, considering the market cap.
04:40The biggest, sir.
04:42Yes, it has surpassed the BCA.
04:44So, maybe one of the things that will burden the index, at least this weekend, if it is a correction brand.
04:50From the technical, we can also see that the price has started to reject, has started to rise, and the rise has been quite a lot.
04:55So, the anticipation of Bren's movement, we expect it will also weaken first, limited, correction, maybe to the price range level,
05:0210,200 to 10,000, that is the level that must be paid attention to for market players,
05:08which must be anticipated, if possible, to consider to buy back again if the price has finished the correction.
05:15Okay, what is the recommendation like, sir, for Bren, for now?
05:21Okay, for now, because the price is going to be corrected first, which we expect at least,
05:26we recommend wait and see first, maybe buy on witness, if the price has been corrected, finished,
05:32and if we look at it in terms of volume and liquidity, this brand has a very good flow, right?
05:37Yes.
05:38Indeed, from the beginning in the IPO, it was quite crowded until now.
05:41So, our recommendation is still buy on witness if the price is corrected and maintained on one support.
05:47The key level, as we mentioned earlier, 10,200 to 10,000, maybe the low, we anticipate the lowest level,
05:55maybe it's at 9,600, the invalidation level.
05:58Below that, maybe you can cut first, or maybe wait for the price to rebound and reverse again.
06:06Okay, closing in the second session today, Bren is closed at level 10,750,
06:12weakening quite deeply at 4.44%.
06:15And again, the investment decision is still in the hands of the IDA channel.
06:20In addition to Bren, sir, today, what caught the attention of the investors is some of the primary consumers, sir.
06:27There is Unilever, today, experiencing quite a deep correction in the intraday.
06:32Today, it is also closed at the lowest level in the long run, especially since it hit Indonesia's stock market.
06:39In 1982, it's been quite a long time.
06:43How do you see the Unilever stock movement pattern in recent times?
06:49In terms of employment, this has also experienced a decline,
06:52although this emitter is quite diligent in distributing dividends to investors.
06:58Okay, if we review a little bit about the fundamentals of Unilever itself,
07:03it is indeed diligent in distributing dividends,
07:05if we look at the performance, we compare it with its peers,
07:10like Mayora, the consumer,
07:12we see that Unilever's performance is not performing so well,
07:18but we also see that it is not really underwhelming, actually.
07:20But what attracts the market's attention is from its PI,
07:23with a price that has fallen a lot,
07:26it can be said that the PI is still tending to be expensive,
07:30so if we look at the market, it is still tending to sell off,
07:34even though the price has fallen a lot,
07:38the PI is still expensive,
07:39and this PI, sorry,
07:42this performance cannot justify this expensive PI,
07:47therefore, technically, it also confirms,
07:52that yesterday there was also a support break,
07:54here it confirms that the market players are not quite interested in Unilever itself,
08:00because the trend that we have seen from year to year,
08:03the peak in 2018,
08:06it has not yet returned to a high-low structure,
08:10in terms of price structure as well.
08:11So for Unilever, we think it is still bearish,
08:16if we look at the target price for the short term,
08:20at least, maybe it will go down first to the 2060 level,
08:24which after it reaches that level,
08:26there is a possibility that it will rebound,
08:28like on April 15th to June 3rd,
08:32so maybe it can be observed,
08:33if from a short-term point of view,
08:35it can be used for intraday trading or street trading,
08:38maybe like that for Unilever.
08:40Okay.
08:41When Unilever experienced a weakness today,
08:45Mr. Nicholas, I tried to check earlier,
08:48other stocks such as EMYOR,
08:51today the jump is quite significant,
08:53above 4%,
08:55even though in a week, it usually experiences a correction,
08:58then there is also ICBP,
09:00today it is stronger than 2%,
09:02and then INDF, today it is also stronger than 4%.
09:08How do you see it?
09:09Is Unilever left out,
09:11compared to other consumer stocks?
09:14Mr. Nicholas.
09:15Yes, if we compare it,
09:17as Mr. David mentioned,
09:18EMYOR and Indoput,
09:19Unilever is actually very laggard.
09:21Because if we look at it,
09:23in the middle of our depletion,
09:26this primary consumer should still be an option,
09:30because it is defensive,
09:32and of course the community will still need it.
09:36For daily needs,
09:37they will definitely use products from other emitters,
09:40such as Mayora, Unilever, and Indoput.
09:42But what we see here is still back again,
09:45as a market player,
09:46if we look at it, it's quite laggard.
09:48That's why if we can give options,
09:50the choice is,
09:51as Mr. David mentioned, Mayora and Indoput.
09:53Because if we look at it,
09:55both fundamentally and technically,
09:58the trend is also very attractive.
10:00And actually the price has also turned upside down,
10:03so it's bullish again.
10:04Especially for Mayora and Indoput.
10:07Okay, while waiting for the update
10:09on the closing of trade in the second session,
10:11Mr. Nicholas,
10:12it seems that today's property
10:14is leading in terms of strength,
10:16starting from the closing of the first session,
10:18it seems to continue to the closing of trade in the second session.
10:21Do you see this position
10:23as just a sector rotation, sir?
10:25Or is it true that there are quite a lot of positive sentiment
10:28coming from SAMSAM in this sector?
10:31The prospect of the closure of Sukubunga,
10:33then the PPN 100% initiative is extended until December,
10:38then the price position is still at the bottom level
10:41for SAMSAM in the property sector.
10:44Okay, for property, it's actually a fresh wind.
10:46As Mr. David mentioned,
10:47Sukubunga is the first,
10:49although if we look at it,
10:51Sukubunga Landing must be the last,
10:53the one that was closed must be the deposit rate first.
10:56But if we look at it,
10:57the market share has also started to accumulate
10:59because the price of the property shares
11:00has indeed dropped quite a lot
11:02since the high price of Sukubunga.
11:04Then the incentive from the government
11:05is also extended until the end of the year.
11:07That's why if we look at it,
11:08almost all of the property emissions have risen,
11:10starting from the big cap
11:12to the medium cap,
11:13everything started to rise.
11:14So maybe for the market players,
11:17they can consider
11:19property shares such as BSDE, SMLA, and Nasri
11:22are also trends that have started to bullish
11:24led by BSDE.
11:25If we look at it, it's quite leading.
11:28Because yesterday we said the price correction,
11:29maybe it can be considered,
11:31the big cap property shares
11:33for us to buy on weakness.
11:35So if we look at it,
11:37the sectoral rotation is also included
11:40by many positive catalysts
11:42which actually have quite a big impact on the property.
11:46Moreover, this property is quite sensitive
11:48with Sukubunga.