'Do or die' for Biden as pressure to quit grows
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00:00So, one president surviving an assassination attempt, another's political livelihood in
00:05doubt.
00:06I want to speak to Thomas Gift, Director of the Center of U.S. Politics at University
00:10College London.
00:11Hello to you, Thomas.
00:12Thank you for speaking to Paris Direct.
00:14It feels like the U.S. presidential race is at something of a crossroads.
00:17How critical are the next few days?
00:21I think that they're absolutely critical, and I completely agree with your assessment.
00:25For Biden in particular, it's do or die.
00:28As we see a chorus of voices become louder and louder that he should step aside.
00:34Some reports are suggesting credibly that he may do so as early as Sunday of next week.
00:41So far, he's been adamant.
00:42He's been able to endure all of this criticism.
00:45But whenever you have the New York Times editorial board, allies on Capitol Hill saying that
00:52he should get out of the race, it becomes much more difficult to stay in.
00:57From your own perspective, do you think he should step aside?
01:01I think that he should step aside if you just look at the polling data.
01:04It looks very disappointing.
01:06If you look nationally, six, seven percentage point lead for Trump.
01:10In key swing states, it's even worse, eight, nine percent.
01:14There are some states that aren't even traditionally considered swing states that some in the Republican
01:19Party think could be in play this year.
01:21So there's the polling aspect, just the reality on the ground.
01:25And then I also would say that I think it's a reasonable question to ask whether Biden
01:30does have the mental acuity and physical vigor to carry out his job, not just for the next
01:35four months on the campaign trail, but four years from now, whenever he's making major
01:40decisions for the United States.
01:42Biden says he's not convinced by the argument to step aside.
01:46But were he to change his mind, who should the Democrats look to?
01:50Well, it would really create a free-for-all at the Democratic convention in August.
01:55So anyone could put their hat in the ring and then delegates would be able to select
02:01their candidate.
02:02I do think Kamala Harris, who's Biden's current vice president, would be at the very
02:07top of the list.
02:08It would be difficult for the party to move against her, partly because of reasons of
02:13identity politics, but also because she's just perceived as the heir apparent and has
02:17been since Biden appointed her as his vice president back in 2020.
02:23There are some other names, though, that could potentially come in.
02:26Gavin Newsom, the governor of California, Gretchen Whitmer, the governor of Michigan,
02:32Wes Moore, the governor of Maryland, and Scott Shapiro, who's the governor of Pennsylvania.
02:37I wouldn't be surprised if any of those names will hear a lot about if Trump exits.
02:43We know a lot of world leaders were preparing for a second Trump presidency.
02:48How have leaders been reacting about Biden's health and his prospects in the race to the
02:56White House?
02:57Well, I think that you have seen some reluctance among world leaders to come out and openly
03:03express criticism of Biden and say that they have real concerns about his health, simply
03:09because to this point, again, he's been adamant that he's staying in.
03:12And so if Biden would stay in and would win, I think that they don't want to have to eat
03:16their words in a few years.
03:18But at the same time, we're seeing leaks from private meetings.
03:23Some are saying basically that Biden isn't the same Biden that he was even six months
03:28ago, much less about three years ago.
03:31So I do think there's a lot of concern about that.
03:34But I think that there's even more concern about the fact that Trump looks poised to
03:38win this.
03:39I mean, there's still a long way to go, but we know that Trump has really taken a relatively
03:44isolationist stance on many policies, kind of his America First Forum policy was not
03:50known for working well with world leaders.
03:53So I think there's concern in both directions.
03:56Yeah.
03:57And in regards to Trump, when he ran and named Mike Pence as his vice president back in 2016,
04:05the idea was that Pence was an established, experienced Republican.
04:09Now we have his running mate who has less experience and is a MAGA enthusiast.
04:15What do you think we would expect from a second Trump presidency?
04:18No, it's a great question.
04:20And you're absolutely right.
04:22Not only Mike Pence, but a number of individuals who he appointed to his administration.
04:28Some were reassured by that at the time.
04:30They thought that these would kind of be the adults in the room, so to speak, that could
04:33keep Trump in check.
04:35But of course, many of them ended up leaving the administration.
04:38There was such high turnover.
04:41Some of them openly criticized Trump once they left.
04:44But I think we have to take Trump at his word, which is that a second term would be essentially
04:49a retribution tour.
04:50He's promised to stamp out the deep state, go after political opponents.
04:56And I think that he would constitute sort of a significant challenge to democracy.
05:00I'm not convinced that he represents an existential threat, as some Democrats have said, but certainly
05:07he's challenged major democratic institutions, congressional oversight, the free press, and
05:12so on.
05:13I think sort of a second term where Trump doesn't face the prospect of a reelection
05:18could even sort of lead to more unhinged activities.