Gaming Out Kamala Harris's Vice Presidential Shortlist—Who Could Be The Next VP?

3 months ago

On "Forbes Newsroom," Iowa State University Profressor Dr. Kelly Winfrey spoke about VP Kamala Harris’ potential running mates, how she will debate against former President Donald Trump, the impact on the DNC, and the latest viral videos featuring Harris.

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00:00Hello and welcome back.

00:04I'm Sarah Mueller, a reporter with Forbes.

00:06And today I am joined by Dr.

00:08Kelly Winfrey with Iowa State University.

00:12Dr.

00:12Kelly Winfrey, I can't even imagine what type of week we're having.

00:17It's been insane, right?

00:19I mean, I need to know your initial reactions to Kamala Harris entering

00:22the race with her partner Biden dropping out.

00:26It's kind of a switch up.

00:27We didn't really see coming.

00:29It was certainly a surprise given the number of times that President

00:34Biden said he wasn't dropping out to see that come across my social

00:39media and text messaging kind of all at once on Sunday afternoon.

00:43So I think it was a surprise to a lot of people.

00:45But at the same time, we've been talking about what ifs for a little

00:48while, especially since his lackluster debate performance.

00:53So I think a lot of us have thought this is a possibility, but probably

00:58not going to happen.

01:00So it was a surprise, but not not a total surprise.

01:05Yeah.

01:05And before you and I got on our call, we were talking about how there's

01:09this kind of we love talking about potential opportunities or changes

01:14in the race, but for it to actually happen, especially this late in

01:18the race, we are only a couple weeks away from the DNC.

01:21So, I mean, I want to know kind of your your first reaction to what

01:25this means for the Trump campaign, especially given the recent

01:29assassination attempt.

01:31Well, I think that's a great question.

01:33And I believe former President Trump had made a statement in the

01:36past day or so that they've had to totally change everything up

01:40because they have a new appoint a new opponent and that's exactly

01:43correct, right?

01:44They've been campaigning against Joe Biden very much focusing on

01:48his age and competency.

01:49And that was really one of their stronger arguments and now that's

01:52gone.

01:53So it's really going to force them to very quickly come up with a

01:58new strategy to try to best Kamala Harris, especially now that

02:03Donald Trump is the oldest ever presidential candidates.

02:07So it really turned the tables and I think will cause a lot of

02:11upheaval in his campaign, but I'll say they should have at least

02:14had a backup plan, right?

02:16Given Biden's age, given that debate performance, there should have

02:19been as a campaign campaign team a what if so that they had some

02:24strategy ready to go.

02:25We'll see what that ends up looking like though.

02:27Do you have any guesses what you think they're going to try and

02:30target her on?

02:33You know, I mean, I fully expect to see lots of sexism and racism

02:38to be honest, you know from what I study and what we saw with

02:42Harris as the VP nominee in 2020.

02:45There was rampant sexism and racism.

02:48I mean straight up kind of vulgar commentary on Twitter.

02:52I expect there'll be some of that in the social media realm.

02:56We've already heard JD Vance say that she was a childless cat lady

03:00who was miserable.

03:01So, you know, I expect fully that sort of thing also just from

03:05President Trump.

03:06That's his style is to kind of name-call and go after things like

03:09that.

03:10But I you know, I think probably you will hear some discussion of

03:15certain issues like immigration in particular Harris kind of

03:19headed that up when she first became vice president and also

03:23still trying to attack on some of the same issues since she's

03:26been part of the current administration some of the same attacks

03:29that are issue based that they were planning to use toward

03:32Biden should also be at least somewhat useful against Harris.

03:38Yeah, we are only a few weeks away from that DNC where she's

03:42going to need all those delegates.

03:43She can get now what's going to be kind of that fight for the

03:47delegates look like.

03:48I mean, we kind of have had a couple of candidates potential

03:51candidates say, you know, no, I'm not going to run against, you

03:55know, Harris.

03:55This is her race, but could anybody come up from the back end

04:00and say yeah, I'm going to run against her.

04:02I think we'll have to wait and see what the DNC decides to do

04:06with the process.

04:07So their plan had been to do a roll call vote on on or before

04:12August 7th to formally nominate or vote for Biden as the nominee.

04:19That was kind of an arbitrary deadline that the party had set

04:22for themselves given how late the convention is and some kind

04:26of questions about state laws and being on balance.

04:29So really, you know, someone could get put their name out there,

04:32but most of the folks that I would say would be good contenders

04:37have thrown their support behind Harris very quickly.

04:40We've seen a very quick kind of coalescing around Harris and,

04:49you know, we have Pete Buttigieg, Gretchen Whitmer, Josh Shapiro,

04:54all these folks who have been mentioned as possible candidates

04:58have said they fully support Harris.

05:00So I think the party and party leadership and that includes

05:04our Democratic governors across the country have very quickly

05:08backed Harris to show that the party is united on that front,

05:13which is really important given this late in the race.

05:15We don't want to have, you know, from a Democratic perspective,

05:17we don't want to have a bunch of people fighting against each

05:19other and allow the opponent to just sit back and watch it happen.

05:23They need to be ready to campaign against Trump.

05:25So I think the party's done a good job with that.

05:28The other thing I mentioned is that we already have a lot of

05:30state parties, including Iowa, who have pledged their delegates

05:34to Harris.

05:35So a lot of this work is kind of being done already.

05:40The other kind of piece of this, as I hear some folks say,

05:43well, can they, you know, can she get on the ballot at this

05:45point and what's going to, you know, what's going to happen?

05:47Is it fair?

05:49Is it breaking some sort of laws?

05:50And it's important to remember that conventions are party events,

05:55right?

05:55All of the primaries, the nomination process is all done by

06:00the party.

06:01That is not a government thing.

06:03So no one's breaking any laws by deciding the candidate.

06:06Joe Biden wasn't going to be the official nominee until that

06:09convention was over.

06:10So we still have a few weeks before that happens anyway, and

06:14that's plenty of time.

06:15That's after the convention is when the parties submit the name

06:18of their presidential candidates to the states to put on the

06:21ballot.

06:22So there's not as much concern about that as I think initially

06:25people were maybe worrying or some are hoping for depending

06:28on what side of the aisle.

06:30You threw out a name that I think is really important to watch

06:33which is Pete Buttigieg.

06:35There's so much talk about VP candidates for the VP.

06:40And I think you and I live in Iowa.

06:42We saw Pete Buttigieg, you know, people caucus for him and

06:46whatnot and it was kind of strange how he was pulling pretty

06:50far ahead.

06:51And then I remember being in the newsroom when it happened that

06:55we were going to have this big convention downtown Des Moines

06:57where a bunch of candidates could talk and he was supposed

07:00to speak in just before the convention.

07:02He dropped out.

07:03He announced he dropped out and it was kind of wild because

07:05he was already pulling for our head.

07:06So we kind of all assumed that had to do with maybe campaign

07:09funds wasn't making enough money to make it to the other

07:12states. So from that experience, I think we've watched there

07:16is interest in people to judge in an official office of some

07:20capacity.

07:20Now, he has not necessarily been elected.

07:22He is in Department of Transportation right now and that

07:25was selected by Biden.

07:27But what are his chances?

07:29Who are you looking at at VP candidates here?

07:32Because there's kind of a roster of people.

07:35Yeah, you know, Pete Buttigieg is on a lot of people's tongue

07:39for that possible nomination as vice president.

07:43Buttigieg is a great speaker.

07:44He is very relatable.

07:47He's younger.

07:48He and his partner are great on social media, great on media.

07:54I think that Buttigieg could be a really good pick for really

07:58engaging people and getting energy up, especially younger

08:00voters. The downside, like you said, is that he hasn't held

08:05a national federal level elected position.

08:08You know, he was known as Mayor Pete when he was running

08:11for the vice presidency.

08:12So there's limited experience in that sense, though.

08:15He has had to deal with a lot of things as Secretary of

08:19Transportation, airline outages, train derailments, all sort

08:22of stuff that he's had to handle and has, I would say, handled

08:26pretty well. Also coming from Indiana.

08:29He's coming from that kind of Rust Belt area and maybe could

08:33appeal to some of those voters in key states.

08:36I would say, though, you know, in modern elections, we haven't

08:41really selected vice presidential nominees based on where

08:45they're from or winning a state because kind of we've just

08:49got a handful of swing states at this point.

08:51However, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro is pretty

08:56popular in Pennsylvania.

08:58Obviously, if you remember back to 2020, Pennsylvania was

09:01one of those states that we were waiting to hear a final

09:03decision on. So if someone like him could bring a state

09:08like Pennsylvania firmly into the Democratic column, that

09:10would be a huge win. Mark Kelly in Arizona is another one

09:14I've heard people mention.

09:16You know, I question whether or not we want to, you know,

09:18whether the Democrats would want to put him out of the Senate.

09:25You know, that's a very contested Senate seat.

09:28So I don't know how great of a pick he would be, but I know

09:32they're vetting him.

09:33I think they just released a short list earlier today of some

09:38folks that they had, the Harris campaign, had solicited materials

09:42from to start the vetting process.

09:44And so he was one of those as well.

09:46And then we have the Kentucky governor, someone else.

09:49So I don't think we're going to turn Kentucky blue.

09:52So, you know, he's a very, he's a younger, very dynamic speaker,

09:56but not, probably not going to deliver that home state.

09:59But maybe could appeal to some white working-class voters

10:02in the middle of the country.

10:04Let's talk about that appeal because moderates are the

10:07main conversation. Those voters that are not

10:12committed to a party maybe looked at the election before

10:15and said, I don't want to see another 2020.

10:18I don't like either candidate.

10:19Now we've had a whole switch up with Harris coming in.

10:23What do you think that's going to do?

10:25What does she need to do specifically that maybe Biden wasn't

10:27doing for moderate voters?

10:29I think one thing is that she's gotten people excited and

10:33interested. I know personally as a voter and as someone who

10:37studies politics, I had kind of, you know, resigned myself to

10:40this is going to be a slow train wreck of a campaign and from

10:44both sides and then overnight or middle of Sunday afternoon

10:48that all changed.

10:49And so the amount of energy that this switch up has caused

10:55among Democrats, among anyone who's kind of an anti-Trump

10:59voter, I think is noteworthy.

11:03The big thing for her, I think in terms of moderate voters

11:06is making sure that she can win the same voters Biden won

11:08in 2020.

11:09So if there were moderate Republicans who were not happy

11:13with Trump, you know, people who don't vote as often, young

11:17people, things like that, that maybe voted against Trump and

11:20for Biden, getting those folks mobilized are important.

11:23I also think Harris has the potential to mobilize women voters

11:27in a way that hasn't been done in quite a while.

11:31You know, in 2016, Hillary Clinton obviously didn't win.

11:36She did foretell some things that might happen, especially

11:39around reproductive rights.

11:41Now that we are in a post-Dobbs world where we have increased

11:45restrictions on reproductive rights in a lot of states, there's

11:48an opportunity to really mobilize women voters in particular

11:52around issues around rights, especially against someone like

11:55Trump, who has a questionable background at best in terms

12:00of his treatment of women.

12:01So there's a lot of opportunity there.

12:04I think there's also a lot of opportunity with young voters

12:06that maybe Biden didn't have.

12:09Like I said, it seemed like it was going to be kind of just a

12:11boring campaign of two old men.

12:14And now we've got Harris engaging with Gen Z on social media

12:19and really trying to connect.

12:21And I think that's another big part that we'll see is to try

12:24to get younger folks to turn out, maybe more like we did in

12:272008 when Obama was mobilizing some groups that weren't

12:32already typical voters.

12:34Now, I've been covering this campaign now for a year and a

12:38half ahead of the Iowa caucuses.

12:40You and I have been talking for a year and a half about it.

12:43And even far back as, you know, when Nikki Haley got into

12:47the race talking about what a woman in this race would look

12:51like and how it would change things up.

12:53Now, this is a whole different dynamic we weren't expecting.

12:57But one thing I hear over and over again when I was on the

13:00campaign trail is just a ton of people saying, I just don't

13:04want to vote for Trump.

13:05I just don't want to vote for Biden, but I still want my

13:08party to win.

13:10And so now we've talked about a lot of issues, kitchen table

13:15issues, economy, obviously immigration.

13:17That was something that Kamala was supposed to be in charge

13:20of for the Biden administration.

13:22So what do you think is now going to be of her track record

13:26things she's done in the past?

13:28What do you think is going to be brought up either in her

13:30favor or possibly against her?

13:33I think the big things, you know, reproductive rights will

13:36be a big issue.

13:37LGBTQ rights will be a big issue.

13:40And that is a very clear divide.

13:43And that's those are both issues that overwhelmingly the

13:47population sides a little more to the left on.

13:50Now, that might not be the primary issue they vote on, but

13:53that's one area, you know, she was handed an immigration

13:57crisis whenever they took office, which was, I'd say, I

14:01know a little unfair to her as a new VP to have to start

14:06taking that on.

14:07But she did make some progress.

14:08She's also been very active with Joe Biden in economic

14:11recovery work, leadership in the Senate.

14:15Her background is a prosecutor, something that she's talked

14:18about when she was running for the nomination in 2019.

14:23It's come back into the conversation again.

14:25She's a prosecutor versus a felon, that sort of narrative

14:29that she's on the right side of the law and larger questions

14:32about the role of government.

14:34And our democracy will probably be big issues given where

14:38the Supreme Court's decisions have landed in the past few

14:42years and things that both parties have said about where

14:45they want the country to go.

14:46So I think we're going to see kind of some big picture

14:49conversations around what we want government to be doing

14:52for people or not doing for people and what is that role

14:56and what is that role for different types of people?

15:00We could potentially see a Trump-Harris debate, which would

15:06be drastically different, I believe, than what we saw just

15:10a couple weeks ago.

15:11But what do you think, you know, voters will be maybe looking

15:15at that debate?

15:16What do you think will be maybe brought up?

15:18I think one of the things that I heard most from people

15:21discussing after the last debate was that none of the

15:24moderators' questions were properly answered.

15:27Do you think that it'll be more traditional debate than

15:31what we've seen the last couple of times?

15:34I think Harris will give you a more traditional debate than

15:36what we've seen.

15:37And I think she'll do a fantastic job.

15:40If you think back to her vice presidential debate against

15:43Mike Pence and some of the debates that she was in as a

15:47primary caucus candidate in 2019, she did a fantastic job.

15:50She's a strong speaker.

15:52She can make an argument.

15:53She's got that lawyer-prosecutor background to make her case.

15:57So I would expect her to do a better job answering questions

16:00and a better job making a case against Donald Trump.

16:03The other thing I think that will be important in the next

16:07presidential debate is the focus can shift back to Trump

16:11on some issues related to age and, you know, ethics, morals,

16:17whatever that might be.

16:19People were so caught up on Biden after the last debate,

16:22I think because people didn't expect him to perform that

16:26poorly.

16:27So there was a lot of talk about that.

16:29And so a lot of talk about how he wasn't making sense in

16:31some of his answers.

16:33I think the general public is so used to Donald Trump not

16:37making sense in his answers that he kind of got a pass in

16:40that debate and Biden didn't take the opportunity to point

16:45that out as the debate was happening.

16:46And I think Harris will do a much better job of that.

16:49I'll be curious to see if Trump decides to debate her or

16:51not. I think he should be a little nervous debating her,

16:55but I also think his ego is so big that he will want to

16:59try to go head-to-head against her.

17:01He'll probably be able to rally, you know, his supporters

17:04against her, but he may, if he's not careful in what he

17:08says, may end up further isolating himself, particularly

17:12among women voters and people of color.

17:16Well, before I let you go, I want to talk a little bit

17:19about some media things that are happening.

17:21I work on the social media side of things for Forbes, and

17:24you've studied it.

17:25Now, we have some interesting memes going around about

17:29Kamala Harris.

17:30We have, if anybody's on TikTok or Instagram, you see the

17:35coconut fawn tree meme.

17:37You see the Charlie XCX brat meme going around.

17:41We also talk about the value of the young voters, right?

17:45Like getting them out, mobilizing them.

17:47So what does this mean for her?

17:49She's really embraced this, too.

17:51You know, she's kind of like leaned into this idea of riding

17:54the social media viral wave.

17:57So what is that going to do for her?

17:59And how does that help her?

18:01Well, I think it's really important to engage young people.

18:04It's where young people are.

18:06I'll say when the coconut thing started, I had a friend

18:09text something to me and I did not understand what this

18:13TikTok video was, so I'm not the demographic for that.

18:17But I've since been like, oh, what's going on here?

18:21Because I do study it and it is very interesting and I think

18:25very strategic to go to voters where they are.

18:29You know, historically, that's been, you know, local news

18:32hour advertisements and traditional news media.

18:35But it also, for a lot of people, is social media.

18:40We saw, you know, Barack Obama did a great job using Facebook

18:44very early on in his 2008 campaign.

18:47And then again in 2012, we're in now the TikTok era, which

18:51is interesting given also the TikTok policy, all of that

18:56stuff, but we'll set that aside. But leaning into the discourse

19:02and the mediums that young people are using, which, you

19:06know, I think her and her campaign are already doing a good

19:09job of that.

19:10And that's the sort of stuff that's going to get people

19:12excited, especially young people. Obviously, I'm not that

19:16demographic, but I'm excited for other reasons. But it's

19:20certainly, it's new, right? It's not Biden's campaign.

19:24And I think it really sets her apart as a younger, more aware

19:29candidate than Joe Biden or Donald Trump are.

19:33Yeah, the amount of hype reels I saw of her just on Sunday

19:40coming through all my social media channels. It's like,

19:42oh, we are here. This is happening now. But yeah, there's

19:46a lot of moving parts to it. What, before I let you go, what

19:50is kind of your last bit of context to voters of what they

19:54should be looking for over the next couple of weeks?

19:57What have you got your eye on?

19:59I think the big thing will be polling in swing states.

20:04We haven't had a poll that puts Harris against Trump when

20:07she's actually the candidate. There's been some hypothetical

20:10polling. But what does that polling look like in swing

20:13states? In, you know, in US elections, the popular vote is

20:17not what wins the election. So what are things looking like

20:20in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, those

20:24will be the places that I'm really paying attention to, to

20:27see where there might be ground to gain with Kamala as the

20:33candidate. I think I'll also be really watching to see if

20:38there's debates or how the candidates talk about each other

20:42and what that might do to bring in voters or to alienate voters

20:45in the next few weeks. And really, I'm curious to see what

20:49the Trump campaign does, given this changes their whole

20:52strategy and how they're going to try to do, try to attack

20:57Harris in a way that is productive and doesn't further

21:00alienate folks.

21:02Absolutely. Hey, thank you so much, Dr. Winfrey. I appreciate

21:06your time.

21:07Yeah, thank you.

Gaming Out Kamala Harris's Vice Presidential Shortlist—Who Could Be The Next VP?

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