Saham Rokok Kompak Turun Pasca Larangan Jual Eceran
"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Power Breakfast, Kamis (01/08/2024) dengan Tema Saham Rokok Kompak Turun Pasca Larangan Jual Eceran".
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00:00Let's talk about Pomiarsa's economic agenda.
00:02There are several agendas at the beginning of this month.
00:05Please pay attention to the following ones.
00:08There are statements from FOMC that have been released by Pomiarsa.
00:11The Fed, the Central Bank of the United States,
00:14China PMI Manufacture,
00:17King of Trade from South Korea,
00:19Retail Sales from Hong Kong,
00:21PMI Manufacture Indonesia,
00:23PMI Manufacture Vietnam,
00:25and King of Trade from Australia.
00:28There are also payments from the IMF,
00:30RMKE,
00:32TCPI,
00:34CRSN,
00:36film payment,
00:38MHKI,
00:41and CITA.
00:43From the Asia-Pomiarsa exchange update,
00:45does it reflect the strengthening of the Wall Street exchange?
00:49Let's take a look.
00:50The IKEA Japan is down.
00:52Pomiarsa is quite deep this morning,
00:542.71%.
00:56The Stratetimes is down 0.26%.
00:58The KOSPI Korea is up 0.21%.
01:01And the Hang Seng Hong Kong is down 0.1%.
01:04The majority is anomalous
01:06with the closing of the Wall Street exchange
01:08moving in the negative territory.
01:16Pomiarsa's stock,
01:17the emittance of the producer,
01:18is also weakening at the end of the trade
01:21on July 31, 2024.
01:23Yesterday, the weakening occurred
01:25as Pomiarsa tried to ease it.
01:26The government banned the sale of cigarettes
01:28in batches.
01:33The stock of the emittance of the producer,
01:35PT HM Sampora TBK and PT Gudang Garam TBK,
01:38is also weakening at the end of the trade
01:40yesterday.
01:41Each is up 1.46% and 2.78%.
01:44Meanwhile, the stock of PT Wis Milak Inti Magmur TBK
01:48is down 11.31%.
01:51The stock of PT Indonesian Tobacco TBK
01:53is also weakening at the end of the trade yesterday.
01:57The negative movement,
01:58the price of the emittance of the producer,
01:59is still affected by the sentiment
02:01of the plan to increase the tax rate
02:03of tobacco products or CHT
02:05in 2025.
02:07The movement of the emittance of the producer
02:09is also regulated by the ban
02:11on the sale of cigarette in batches.
02:13These requirements are included
02:15in the Government Regulation No. 28
02:17of 2024
02:18about the implementation regulations
02:20of Law No. 17 of 2023
02:22on health.
02:23The regulation of the emittance
02:25has been implemented after it was signed
02:27by President Joko Widodo.
02:29The ban written in article 434 verse 1
02:32letter C states,
02:33everyone is prohibited from selling
02:35tobacco and e-cigarettes
02:37in batches,
02:39except for tobacco products
02:41in the form of cigarettes and e-cigarettes.
02:49We will discuss the impact of the ban
02:52on the sale of e-cigarettes
02:54to tobacco companies
02:56that have also experienced weakness
02:58with Mr. William Suryawijaya,
03:00CEO of Yugen Securities.
03:02Mr. William, how are you?
03:05Hi, good morning.
03:06Good morning.
03:07Thank you for joining us this morning, Mr. William.
03:09There are many sentiments,
03:10but we want to go to the sentiments
03:11from the domestic first,
03:12related to the PPP
03:14signed by President Joko Widodo
03:16two days ago,
03:18and yesterday it was immediately responded
03:19negatively by tobacco emitters.
03:21How is your attitude?
03:23Is this just a momentary sentiment,
03:25or will this long term impact
03:28the quite drastic sales
03:30of tobacco companies?
03:34If we look at the policy,
03:36there is actually a plus or minus.
03:38We know that
03:40the sale of e-cigarettes
03:43is more limited
03:45because we see that
03:47tobacco is very related
03:49to health as well,
03:51and it will give
03:54a positive sentiment
03:57if we look at it from a health perspective.
04:00However, if we look at it from a sales perspective,
04:03it should be quite influential
04:06because we know that
04:08maybe in our society
04:09there are still more people
04:11who buy e-cigarettes
04:13than those who buy them
04:15directly.
04:17In other words,
04:19in one box.
04:21So that's what we see
04:23for this tobacco emitter.
04:25However, if we look at it
04:27from a stock movement perspective,
04:29technically speaking,
04:31it should still be quite positive.
04:33With the decrease
04:35that happened yesterday,
04:39of course the return
04:41may still be visible in a short period of time.
04:44Even though it decreased
04:46for the salt industry,
04:48we see that the weakness yesterday
04:50was around
04:532.78 percent
04:55and in the last week
04:57it has decreased by 5 percent.
04:58The deepest one seems to be
05:00Wismilak or WIM
05:02which decreased yesterday
05:04to 11 percent,
05:06in one week it has decreased by 12.5 percent.
05:08And maybe I also want to check
05:10Sampurna or Mr. William
05:12which decreased yesterday
05:14by 1.46 percent
05:16but in one week it is still green
05:18by 0.75 percent.
05:20You said that this actually indicates
05:22that there may still be a reverse direction.
05:24What will trigger
05:26this reverse direction, sir?
05:28Actually, if we look at
05:30the decrease compared to
05:32sentiment,
05:34we see that the value
05:36will also be increased in the future.
05:38That's also for the
05:40prohibitions that happened.
05:42Actually, there are a lot of sentiments
05:44such as there must be a picture
05:46that is quite unpleasant
05:48in the packaging of the cigarettes
05:50which of course is also
05:52one of the costs for cigarettes.
05:54However, the
05:56addictive nature of cigarettes
05:58is actually still quite high
06:00if we look at it domestically.
06:02So if we look at
06:04for a longer winning period,
06:06the return should still be
06:08because we know that
06:10the return of cigarettes
06:12is still quite
06:14credibly stable.
06:16Okay, so
06:18negative sentiment is a prohibition
06:20on the sale of cigarettes.
06:22Then there is also an increase in cigarette prices this year.
06:24As usual, it has
06:26tended to be priced in, especially
06:28for cigarettes themselves, and you see that it will not affect
06:30the demand
06:32of users.
06:34Or maybe later it will switch
06:36to the concern that there are
06:38illegal cigarettes that are getting worse, Mr. William.
06:40What is it like?
06:42If we look at
06:44the condition of illegal cigarettes,
06:46it is still there
06:48even though the capacity is not too large.
06:50However, for users,
06:52it seems that they are more
06:54used to
06:56cigarettes that are already
06:58officially licensed.
07:00And we know that the
07:02people who are already familiar
07:04also continue to use it.
07:06So I think for cigarettes,
07:08they are not too
07:10if they are already legal,
07:12they will not be confused by it.
07:14Okay, then
07:16you said
07:18that in terms of prospects,
07:20it's still okay.
07:22Of all the cigarette emitters recorded in the
07:24Indonesian Bureau of Cigarettes, which prospect
07:26according to Mr. William
07:28is still worthy for us to discuss,
07:30if we look at it?
07:32If we look at it,
07:34it is still due to the production of the largest cigarette
07:36such as Gudang Garam,
07:38HM Sampurna,
07:40because we know that
07:42HM Sampurna is also starting to play
07:44in electric cigarettes.
07:46So I think it will also help
07:48the energy from the emitter.
07:50What is your recommendation for
07:52Gudang Garam and HM SP
07:54and how long is the time frame, Mr. William?
07:57If we look at
07:59Gudang Garam first,
08:01the potential decrease
08:03is still visible,
08:05but relatively
08:07maybe slightly
08:09less.
08:11So we can see
08:13around 15-200,
08:1515-300
08:17for support
08:19and close
08:22to
08:24the resistance
08:26is around
08:2816,500.
08:3016,500,
08:32the highest level
08:34is in
08:36this week,
08:38there is still a chance to drop to 12,000
08:40for Gudang Garam, right?
08:42Down to around
08:4415,200.
08:46Okay, 15,200,
08:48too far
08:5115,200,
08:53there is still a chance there.
08:54How about HM SP?
08:56If we look at HM SP,
08:58actually it has also been maintained
09:02in support around
09:04650,
09:06with upside potential
09:08still visible
09:10at around 750.
09:12So I think that's the
09:14picture for HM SP.
09:16Okay, HM SP
09:18there is still a chance to drop to 750,
09:20with a loss limit at 650, Mr. William.
09:22I agree.
09:24Okay, that's the recommendation
09:26of the PM and analysis related to
09:28the impact of the new regulation
09:30on the ban on the sale
09:32of e-cigarettes to stocks
09:34or cigarette emitters in Indonesia.
09:36We will be back with other information
09:38and sentiments, including
09:40from the FED, Mr. Meirsaya,
09:42whether there is an indication of a decrease in the flow of flowers in September.
09:44Usai Jeda remains in the market segment.
09:46Thank you again with us,
09:48Mr. Meirsaya and Mr. William Suryawijaya,
09:50CEO of UGAN Securities.
09:52Mr. William, the sentiment
09:54that is expected from the state
09:56or from the global is also the FED.
09:58At the meeting
10:00at the end of July,
10:02according to projections,
10:04the flow of flowers has not yet changed.
10:08The Wall Street is strengthening,
10:10the European exchange is also strengthening,
10:12Asia this morning, especially Nikkei Japan,
10:14is also strengthening.
10:16What do you think will be the impact
10:18on the Indonesian stock market
10:20at the opening of the first session?
10:22If we look at it,
10:24there is no increase from the FED.
10:34Mr. William, can you repeat
10:36the voice a little bit?
10:38What do you think?
10:40For the discussion
10:42from the FED itself
10:44about the position of the flower
10:46is actually also
10:48taking more steps
10:50to look for
10:52security in the market
10:54to see that the
10:56economic conditions are still
10:58stable enough and they will not
11:00change the level of the flower.
11:02As long as we
11:04look at the impact, we
11:06see that Nikkei is perhaps
11:08a little stressed
11:10or some other
11:12processes in the regional
11:14tend to be negative.
11:16There is no decrease
11:18and there is still something good.
11:20While if we look
11:22at the impact of the FED,
11:24it should be if we look at
11:26the FED, there will not be
11:28a significant decrease.
11:30Moreover, if we look
11:32at today's opening,
11:34even if there is pressure,
11:36it will be far more limited
11:38than what happened
11:40a few weeks ago.
11:42Okay.
11:44Further information from the meeting of the FED
11:46is that many observers estimate
11:48there is an indication that the FED will reduce the flower
11:50later in September.
11:52Maybe a cut of as big as 25
11:54basis points. Mr. William,
11:56what do you think? Is it true?
11:58If there is such an opportunity,
12:00what steps should we take for now?
12:02Actually,
12:04if we look at it,
12:06maybe if we
12:08compare it to the FED,
12:10maybe we should
12:12be more concerned about the sentiments
12:14in the country, even though
12:16the sentiments abroad will definitely
12:18have a greater impact.
12:20Just for now, maybe if we
12:22talk about September,
12:24will it be reduced?
12:26Relatively, the possibility is still not too
12:28big. Because
12:30the condition of America itself
12:32compared to DOJON
12:34itself is still relatively strong,
12:36standing at more than 40,000,
12:38and even
12:40there is a positive response
12:42with the increase in DOJON, maybe
12:44they will be more
12:46concerned.
12:48Okay, you don't see
12:50there will be a significant impact
12:52from the decision of the FED
12:54on the Indonesian
12:56foreign exchange, and the Indonesian foreign exchange will
12:58also have domestic sentiments.