Guardians vs. Orioles: Key Pitchers & Playoff Implications
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00:00Could this series matter at the end of the year for what ultimately determines who gets the number one overall seed in the American League playoff bracket?
00:12The Guardians, a very slight home favorite, minus 110 for this series opener, minus 106 on the other side for Baltimore.
00:20Those odds were an even pick-em, this virtually a pick-em, total nine and a half.
00:25Who wins the first game today in Cleveland?
00:28Last 60 days, Ben. Let's take a look at the pitchers, and again, there's only five games on the card.
00:32Nine pitchers are qualified with at least 20 innings pitched.
00:35The worst pitcher on the card, number nine, it's Trevor Rodgers.
00:37Not terrible statistics, though.
00:39An XFIP minus number of a 118, an ERA that's not too bad, 3.48, but it does have a high XFIP number at 4.77.
00:46Now, as I said that, oh, look, we're going to take the Cleveland Guardians right off the bat, Ben.
00:50Not necessarily.
00:51Take a look at Trevor Rodgers.
00:54Very good against lefties, a little bit shaky against righties, but the Guardians lineup, that doesn't hit all that well against left-handed pitching,
01:02because you take a look at the last 30 days.
01:04Steven Kwan's a lefty.
01:05He's done very well against left-handed pitching.
01:07Understandably, one of the better hitters in Major League Baseball.
01:10Jose Ramirez, 4.62 iso power number to weighted-on-base percentage of 5.26 over his last 30 days against left-handed pitching.
01:18Even Lane Thomas, the new acquisition, he's got a high weighted-on-base percentage against left-handed pitchers.
01:23Outside of that, nobody is hitting there, which means Frey, Naylor, Martinez, Jimenez, Freeman, and Roccio expected to be in the lineup today,
01:30so that could be an addition here where you're looking for Trevor Roberts to step into a role that he fits right away against a quality team
01:36because they don't hit lefties all that well.
01:37Go over to Ben Lively, average pitcher.
01:39Take a look at his numbers, a 104 XFIP minus, an ERA under 4, and an XFIP number of 4.31 over the past 60 days.
01:46However, I just told you Cleveland struggling with left-handed pitching.
01:50The Baltimore Orioles, Ben, not struggling at all against right-handed pitching.
01:54You take a look at Couser, Henderson, Santander, O'Hearn, Mullins, and Urias here, all elevated weighted-on-base percentages here that can get after it.
02:02So for my money, even if I don't like the pitcher on the mound for Baltimore, I think it's a very good matchup for the pitcher for Baltimore and Rogers.
02:09I'll go ahead and take the Baltimore Orioles in this game.
02:11I just think the matchup could be in their favor today.