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00:00Now, at least 20 U.S. military personnel were hurt in a suspected rocket attack on a military
00:05base in Iraq Monday, the latest in an uptick in strikes on American forces by Iranian-backed
00:11militias.
00:12That attack came as tensions across the Middle East are spiking following the killings last
00:17week of a senior Hezbollah commander in Lebanon and Hamas's top political leader in Iran,
00:23both in suspected Israeli strikes.
00:25Those two groups are both backed by Iran.
00:28We're going to talk more about all of this now with analyst Scott Lucas from University
00:32College Dublin.
00:33Scott, thanks for taking the time to speak to us.
00:35U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said the U.S. is in intense diplomacy at the
00:40moment.
00:41Around the clock, I think, was the term they used, to avoid any spiraling up of the war
00:45in the Middle East.
00:46What kind of diplomacy is underway at the moment, and will it work?
00:51This diplomacy, although the U.S. is involved, it's not just the U.S.
00:55We're talking about European countries, including France.
00:59We're talking about Arab countries, notably Jordan, whose foreign minister was just in
01:03Tehran.
01:05And that message from the international community to the Iranians is, don't retaliate.
01:13At least don't retaliate in a very significant way against Israel's killing of the Hamas
01:19leader Ismail Khania in Tehran last week.
01:25I'm not sure the international community expects that it will be able to completely deter some
01:29type of Iranian response.
01:32But I think they will hope that that response is similar to the Iranian response in April
01:38to Israel's targeted assassinations of Iranian commanders in Syria.
01:43That was a demonstration missile attack.
01:46Although it was quite large, 150 missiles, 170 drones, Iran let it be known in advance
01:53where those missiles and when they would be fired.
01:56And that meant that almost all of them were intercepted, and only a few hit a sparsely
02:00populated area of Israel where there was a military base.
02:04Indeed.
02:05And I guess the question is, given that sort of thing that's happened in the past, do you
02:10think that Iran truly wants a wider war, or is it just about saving face at this point?
02:16I think Iran does not want a direct war with the Israelis, nor do I think its ally Hezbollah
02:22wants a direct war, which would entail a ground invasion of southern Lebanon by the Israelis.
02:29Lebanon is a basket case, has been for years economically, socially fragile, even divided.
02:37Iran has serious economic problems and has serious social issues, including the recent
02:44nationwide protest.
02:45So any type of direct war with Israel not only risks losing that war, because Israel
02:50has more firepower than Hezbollah and Iran, but it risks ripping those countries apart
02:55internally, Lebanon and Iran.
02:58That said, the Iranian regime has pledged retaliation, what the Supreme Leader calls
03:04harsh punishment, and somehow they have to try to save face, or they appear weak in the
03:10face of what was a quite brazen Israeli attack last week.
03:14Indeed.
03:14And Benjamin Netanyahu, speaking this weekend, said Israel is already in a, quote,
03:18multi-front war with Iran and its proxies.
03:21Is that what this is, what we're heading to?
03:25Well, that brings up a wider story about what's happening in Israel.
03:29And that is, in a sense, Benjamin Netanyahu has wanted an open-ended war in Gaza for the
03:36past 10 months, because once that war ends in Gaza, he faces a political and legal reckoning,
03:43possibly being in court on bribery charges.
03:46He supports that idea of open-ended war in Gaza with the idea of, you have to back me,
03:51you have to support me, because we're in this multi-front war with Iran, with Lebanon, with
03:56the Houthis in Yemen.
03:58But Israel is split over this.
04:00There is quite open, open division between Netanyahu, his military, and the defense minister
04:08Yoav Galant about how the war is being conducted in Gaza.
04:13And there is a risk that if Netanyahu goes too far with either the rhetoric or by firing the
04:19defense minister, that he could reach that tipping point where the Israeli leadership
04:24finally turns against him and curves both his approach to Gaza and his approach to the region.
04:31Do you think that he is close to that tipping point?
04:33Can you see that happening?
04:33I mean, could this lead to the downfall of Netanyahu?
04:36I think if Netanyahu fired Yoav Galant, who has been alongside him throughout this war in Gaza,
04:45who indeed is alone alongside Netanyahu after the third member of the war cabinet, Benny Gantz,
04:52left in May, I think the firing of Galant would cause a serious uproar amongst both political
04:58and military leaders, even as Netanyahu is being pushed by the hard right, such as the finance
05:03and justice ministers, to expand these wars.
05:06I never would want to predict a tipping point.
05:08Israeli politics is very complex.
05:11There are many factions there.
05:12It's not a single approach.
05:14But that said, I think Netanyahu has gone pretty much to the limit of how far he's gone.
05:20And if Iran does retaliate, I think the biggest risk for Israel is not actually a direct war,
05:26military strikes.
05:27I think it's the question of Israel's political future as it tries to figure out whether we
05:32are actually stuck, both in Gaza and in the region, for the indefinite future.
05:38All right.
05:38Thanks so much for that, Scott.
05:39Scott Lucas there from University College Dublin.