Amid unprecedented conflict, Israel must 'empower govt of Lebanon, people of Iran' to achieve peace
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00:00And let's get a bit more on this now. I'm joined as well live by Nomi Bar-Yacob.
00:05She is an Associate Fellow at Chatham House. Good to speak to you on the
00:08programme today. Thanks for your time. Thank you Nadia for having me on your
00:12show. Look, first of all I'd like to ask you a similar question to what I asked
00:16Iris Mackler there in Jerusalem. Netanyahu has been very clear a response
00:20to those Iranian attacks will come. How big a retaliation do you think we're
00:26talking about here and is it imminent? I think we're talking both very very
00:32serious in nature and scope of the retaliation. They've been talking about
00:36the oil refineries and they've been talking about potentially hitting the
00:42nuclear sites. And you've seen one of the frontrunners to succeed Netanyahu, a
00:47former Prime Minister, Naftali Bennett, announcing that this is the time to
00:52strike. And he's a very powerful figure in politics even though he's not in the
00:57Knesset, the Israeli Parliament at the moment. But there is definitely a mood to
01:03strike and to strike hard. And I think the question is, and when, I mean there is
01:08a push to try to do it imminently. But we have to remember this is also the
01:13Jewish New Year and people see this as a potential time to celebrate. It's a
01:20year since the 7th of October disaster in terms of Israel. It's the
01:27greatest disaster that this country has faced. So killing Nasrallah and many
01:34Iranian Revolutionary Guards is considered in Israel a success. And
01:40Netanyahu for sure has been wanting to, the Israeli Prime Minister, to target the
01:45Iranian nuclear sites. And part of the defence that was targeted in April is
01:51response to Iran's 13th of April coordinated attack with its proxies on
01:57Israel. Do you agree with what we were just hearing from our correspondent in
02:01Jerusalem, that if this is to be a major wave of attacks on Iran, if for example
02:08the nuclear sites are targeted, that Israel could not act alone, it would need
02:13the support of allies like the United States? Yes, absolutely. I think Israel
02:18cannot go alone without informing the United States, Israel's greatest ally, and
02:27various other states, because this is, as I stated earlier, it's a large operation
02:33in nature and scope. How does the fact that Hezbollah in Lebanon has been so
02:41seriously weakened now after this string of attacks, culminating of course in the
02:46killing of Hassan Nasrallah, impacted Israel's calculus now? Has that emboldened
02:53Israel, do you think, in terms of what we're seeing with Iran? Yes, absolutely. I
02:57think the fact that, I mean, the killing of Hassan Nasrallah and other, you know,
03:04Hezbollah leaders as well as taking a large bulk of Hezbollah's military
03:10arsenal out has been in the planning for 20 years, and so as a plan to hit
03:16Iran, the question was always whether this was necessary and whether, and if
03:23it was necessary, then the question, it was deemed necessary, the question
03:26therefore is when. And there was definitely a consensus in Israel, not
03:31only the government, which is a very extreme government, but it's also
03:35supported by the left, the killing of Nasrallah and the killing of all the
03:42IRGC, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards commanders, was part, there was
03:48definitely a consensus in Israeli society that that was the right move at
03:54the right time. The problem is that there isn't an exit strategy, and if the exit
03:59strategy is meant to be, how do you move from that, taking out a threat, a direct
04:04threat to Israel, to peace, then you need to empower the government of Lebanon and
04:08you need to empower the people of Iran, meaning not the Ayatollahs and not the
04:16supreme leader. So the question is, is this really going to bring peace? And
04:20that is the big question. And it could go very much the other way. So it's not
04:26clear at all. But yes, we're at a very, very, very critical juncture at the
04:30moment, with a direct conflict between Israel and Iran at an unprecedented
04:36level, given that the attack by Iran yesterday was at least double the number
04:40of ballistic missiles than the 13th of October, sorry.
04:45Yeah, and I'd like to ask you a bit about the the ground campaign in
04:49Lebanon. It does seem that incursion has now begun. Look, Israel has said, this is
04:55going to be limited, it's targeting Hezbollah operatives only, it doesn't
04:59want to move deep into Lebanon. And I wonder how plausible you think that is,
05:03because history tells us that previous Israeli campaigns in Lebanon that were
05:08supposed to be short, ended up lasting years.
05:11Yes, exactly. I think that and we also saw in Gaza, where they have said that
05:15this is just a surgical incursion into Rafa, and then it's lasted months on end.
05:23And this is just a temporary sort of measure just to take out, you know, one or
05:27two leaders and one, you know, and a serious amount of ammunition, but in a
05:32particular spot, that is the danger. At the moment, the army and the government
05:37is stating that this is going to be a short time, but by short, they mean
05:40weeks. I mean, we're not talking days. And as you correctly stated, once you go
05:45in, it's very difficult to come out. It's very difficult, because the question is
05:50who is going to fill the vacuum. So say they take out much of the Hezbollah
05:56military arsenal between the Israeli border and the Litani River, it's not
06:01evident that the Lebanese army and the Lebanese government are going to be able
06:06to govern that area independently. So you know, previously Israel had the South
06:14Lebanese army as its own proxy, which was an absolute disaster. So it's very clear
06:19that Israel should not have any kind of role in in governing and supporting any
06:28body that will. The question really is, is Resolution United Nations Security
06:33Council Resolution 1701 going to be implemented? Will there be a stronger
06:37mandate for the forces there for UNIFIL? It's not clear because they can't do
06:45their job at the UN. They're meant to keep the peace between the Litani River
06:50and the Israeli border. But without without the support of the parties, they
06:56can't. And that is a big question. They're not peacemakers, they're
06:59peacekeepers. And so far, they haven't been able to do their job because there
07:04hasn't been that ability. If Hezbollah is indeed weakened, who is going to fill
07:10that vacuum?
07:11Just a final question for you. The United States, of course, just weeks away
07:16from this crucial presidential election. We're hearing today as well,
07:19apparently that the UN Secretary General has been barred from entering Israel
07:23because of him failing to unequivocally condemn Iran following those strikes. I
07:29just wonder your thoughts, lastly, on what room is left now for diplomacy?
07:35Well, the UN isn't a trusted body, unfortunately, in Israel. So this last
07:39move, which is shocking and shameful of barring the United Nations Secretary
07:45General from entering Israel, and they said terrible, the statement of the
07:51Israeli foreign minister said that he supported the rapes and supported the
07:55actions of Hamas on the 7th of October last year, which clearly isn't the case.
08:01But he failed to condemn the attack. And there has been a problem in terms of
08:07and as you said at the outset, instead of going towards diplomacy and using
08:11diplomatic means to resolve this, they are using military means. And the
08:15question, the problem with military means is it cannot be the endgame. The
08:19endgame is never military. So the question is, what comes next afterwards?
08:24So yes, barring the UN Secretary General is quite typical of this current
08:30government.
08:31It's been really good to get your thoughts. Thank you so much. That's Naomi
08:34Barr-Yakov talking to us there. She is from Chatham House. Thank you.
08:39Thank you, Nadia.