AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno breaks down the conditions for possible tropical development next week as we head into the heart of the hurricane season.
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00Hey, time is a ticking here.
00:01We are really approaching our
00:03heart of the hurricane season.
00:04Some would argue we're already in it.
00:06Yeah, you know, I've got a couple of stats.
00:08I want to show you here, Ariella.
00:10Why do we call late September or late
00:12August in the September the heart
00:14of the hurricane season?
00:15Well, if you take a look at the number
00:18of storms that have been reported
00:19from May through December,
00:22so even outside of the Hurricane Center,
00:24because the Hurricane Center is
00:25June through December.
00:26When you take a look at that,
00:28most of the activity is right in here.
00:30Late August in this September,
00:32where you have the most named
00:33storms and also the hurricane.
00:34So that's one stat we can do.
00:36Let's take a look at another one here.
00:38Number of days doing a number of times
00:40during this period that we've had a land
00:43falling hurricane in the United States.
00:46On these days since 1850 here from
00:50August 27th through October 16th.
00:52And you can see here we go.
00:55August in the September,
00:56the highest date for landfalling.
00:59Hurricanes is actually September 16th,
01:01but you could see August and through
01:04the month of September is well
01:06represented here for the number of
01:08days where you get a landfalling storm.
01:10So it just shows you that much of the
01:13activity now is doing this time frame,
01:15and it's it's mostly because this is
01:17when the water temperatures peak and
01:19also you don't have the Saharan dust,
01:22right?
01:22That shuts the tropics down.
01:24Typically doing July and early parts of
01:27August now having said that it's
01:29eerily quiet right now.
01:30I mean, we should be looking at a
01:33tropical storm or hurricane.
01:34At least one of them tracking.
01:36We don't have anything right now,
01:38but we've been watching this
01:39organized mess this morning.
01:41Now this is going to take it some
01:43time to kind of shake out here.
01:45I suspect that this is the area of
01:47thunderstorms that will begin to take over,
01:49but there's no organization right now,
01:51and I think it's going to take
01:53some time for this system to organize.
01:55The question is, will it?
01:56I think the answer is yes,
01:58and here's why.
01:59When you look at the water vapor loop,
02:01by the way, here's all the Saharan dust,
02:03but you could already see there's
02:04not much more coming off Africa,
02:06so I think this dry,
02:07dusty air is going to start going
02:09away here in the next week to 10 days.
02:11I don't see any dryer coming into this area.
02:13In fact,
02:14you could see it getting pushed away
02:15so the dry air isn't going to stop this.
02:18I wouldn't say it's in an ideal
02:19location for wind shear or wind shear
02:21purples is where we do have some
02:23stronger wind shears that would not
02:25allow this system to develop.
02:26It kind of rips it apart.
02:28It's OK, but you'll notice.
02:31In here, Caribbean,
02:32this is where we've been pointing all
02:34week that that is the area to watch as
02:36this continues its move to the West Northwest.
02:39I would not look for much of
02:41anything here this weekend,
02:42although there will be some impacts
02:43Sunday night, Monday morning,
02:45across all of the lesser Antilles
02:46with some locally every rain.
02:48I do believe we will have a named
02:50storm in the Caribbean by Tuesday
02:52and Wednesday of next week.
02:54Not the only system we're watching
02:56an area thunderstorms coming off Africa.
02:57I think this will likely be a
02:59named storm to at some point next week.
03:01We have a low chance for it for now,
03:04but even if it does develop,
03:05it's not heading toward the US.
03:07It's heading into the Central Atlantic,
03:09but of course we'll keep an eye on it.