AccuWeather meteorologists say a major hurricane is likely to take shape as a strengthening tropical system traverses the Atlantic basin.
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00:00 Alright, we do have tropical
00:02 depression #13. It's around 40 degrees West.
00:04 We haven't highlighted here.
00:05 It's still about, you know,
00:07 three to four days away from moving
00:09 north of the Leeward Islands here,
00:11 but this is going to develop and
00:13 this will be a storm rather quickly.
00:15 Wouldn't be surprised if it
00:17 was a storm later on today,
00:19 so we'll continue to track
00:20 this as we move forward here.
00:22 But this is the story.
00:24 This is the number one story in the
00:26 tropics as we move forward here,
00:28 and I believe tropical depression #3
00:30 will be a hurricane by Thursday morning.
00:32 Now we'll move north of the
00:34 Leeward Islands this weekend.
00:35 Probably is a major hurricane.
00:37 More on that and then listen.
00:39 US impacts are certainly possible.
00:40 At the very least,
00:41 this system once it strengthens and we
00:43 think it will rapidly strengthen this weekend,
00:46 it's at the very least going to
00:48 produce rough surf and dangerous rip
00:50 currents up and down the Eastern Seaboard.
00:52 Next week, alright,
00:53 let me show you what it lies ahead of it.
00:56 Here we take a look at the water
00:58 temperatures are warm water temperatures
00:59 in the Atlantic or at their peak right now.
01:02 And by the way,
01:03 water temperatures are running
01:04 above the historical average,
01:05 so we have plenty of warm water.
01:07 Now what would stop this is
01:09 dry air and wind shear.
01:10 Now you look at this and you say wow,
01:13 look at all the dry air that's in its path.
01:16 Well, here's the thing.
01:17 The dry air is not coming into the storm.
01:19 It's being pushed away from the storm.
01:21 I've seen this with these systems.
01:23 These developing systems.
01:24 They could be surrounded by dry air,
01:26 they create their own environment for development.
01:29 That's what appears to be happening right now.
01:31 You could also see even a you
01:33 can see right in here you see how this.
01:35 Little clockwise motion of the blue away.
01:38 This is a telltale sign that we have
01:41 high pressure in this area in the
01:43 upper part of the atmosphere,
01:45 which means there's low wind shear.
01:47 And even if you look at the water
01:48 vapor loop wind shears right here,
01:50 you see how we have wind shear here.
01:51 Winds moving from Southwest to Northeast.
01:54 That's wind shear.
01:55 I don't see any wind shear here,
01:56 because what what I can see is the
01:59 the blue the and the white and the yellow.
02:01 It's all moving for the most part.
02:04 From East to West,
02:05 that tells me if we have light wind shear.
02:07 That's why this is going to gradually
02:09 strengthen over the next couple of days,
02:10 and I think it really gets going here
02:13 as we get into Friday night and Saturday.
02:16 In here, this is going to rapidly intensify.
02:20 We're going to have at the very
02:22 least a category 4 hurricane.
02:23 I think we'll have a category 4
02:25 hurricane north of Puerto Rico.
02:26 That means maximum staying
02:27 winds of 130 mph.
02:29 Category 3 is 111 and while there
02:31 will be some impacts on the
02:33 northern Leeward Islands,
02:35 I suspect there's going to be
02:36 inflow channels here and some
02:38 showers and thunderstorms.
02:39 Puerto Rico and the northern
02:41 and the Leeward Islands.
02:43 There's also going to be some rough
02:45 surf hammering the northern side
02:47 of these islands and that will
02:49 include the Turks and Caicos in the
02:51 Bahamas as we get in the early part of the week.
02:53 So while most of the rain and wind
02:55 may stay north of the island,
02:56 there's at least going to be some impacts
02:57 there and the surf is going to be very,
02:59 very large.
03:00 Now the question is we have a major
03:02 hurricane off the off the well
03:04 off the East Coast of Florida.
03:06 Where is it going?
03:07 Well, I can tell you this.
03:08 I think we could pretty much rule out
03:10 all of Florida and the Carol and most
03:13 most of the North Carolina coast.
03:16 I'd say from the Outer Banks on South,
03:18 I think you can breathe a sigh of relief.
03:20 Now let me show you the scenarios for
03:22 this as we move forward here,
03:24 and there are two depends on the state
03:26 of this trough that's going to be coming
03:27 in the east of United States.
03:28 Middle part of next week.
03:29 Now this seems to be at this point
03:32 the most likely scenario that is
03:34 the trough comes fast enough that it
03:38 will steer.
03:40 What will be Lee out to see Bermuda?
03:42 You're going to have a close call,
03:43 but out to see now maybe not Atlanta,
03:46 Canada,
03:46 but east of the United States.
03:48 That seems to be the most likely
03:50 scenario at this point.
03:51 However,
03:52 I can see a scenario where this trough
03:54 isn't here.
03:55 It's a little farther West.
03:57 It's across the Midwest and what
03:58 happens is you get this upper level
04:00 low that forms across the lakes.
04:02 That means the jet streams farther
04:03 West and that will draw this
04:05 hurricane a little farther east.
04:07 This red area is where I can see
04:09 some rain and wind problems.
04:11 I can see it.
04:11 It's not the most likely scenario
04:13 at this point.
04:14 I want to point that out,
04:15 but you know what?
04:15 We're a week away and I've seen
04:18 the times where we think these
04:20 troughs are coming into the east
04:21 and it goes out to sea and we
04:23 think that's going to be right.
04:24 But then there's a little subtle changes.
04:26 Little farther West trough
04:28 and then we have problems.
04:29 So you've got to watch this along
04:31 the eastern seaboard as we
04:32 head into next week.
04:33 So again,
04:34 what do you need to know?
04:36 We're going to have a strengthening
04:37 major hurricane in the southwest
04:39 Atlantic early next week.
04:40 Now odds do favor this thing
04:42 east of the United States.
04:43 It favors it doesn't mean that it
04:45 can't come to the US coast.
04:47 If it does,
04:48 I think it would be from the outer
04:49 banks all the way up in the eastern
04:51 New England.
04:51 If it does again,
04:52 odds favorite staying east.
04:54 Regardless of the track,
04:55 you're going to have a powerful
04:56 hurricane off the eastern seaboard,
04:58 which means there's going to be
04:59 dangerous rip currents and some
05:00 very rough surf up and down the
05:02 eastern seaboard as we go through next week.