Bursa Global Anjlok, IHSG Rawan Tertahan di Fase Koreksi
"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Power Breakfast, Rabu (04/09/2024) dengan Tema Bursa Global Anjlok, IHSG Rawan Tertahan di Fase Koreksi?"
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00:00We will interview Hans Kwi, Capital Market Observer. Good morning, Mr. Hans.
00:09Yes, good morning, Ma'am.
00:11Thank you very much for your time this morning.
00:13Mr. Hans, the U.S. stock market, when it was in the early days of September,
00:20then yesterday it started to be traded, it was down.
00:23Why did I say it was down? Because the Dow Jones fell by more than 1%,
00:27the S&P fell by more than 2%, then the Nasdaq fell by more than 3%.
00:31The worst day weakness in the last month.
00:35The European exchange is also more or less like that,
00:38and this morning, like Japan, it fell by more than 3%.
00:41How do you see this?
00:44What is the main sentiment and impact of the joint stock price index?
00:49Yes, if we look at it, this market is a little short of positive news ammunition.
00:57Some time ago, we got quite a lot of positive sentiment from the global market,
01:04where the market had high expectations of the Federal Reserve in making the previous cut.
01:10Previously, the market was also quite responsive,
01:13as soon as the U.S. gave signs that the economy would enter a recession.
01:18When the economy is in a recession, people will move to safer assets,
01:24such as U.S. bonds and relatively safer currencies.
01:30But when the market sees that the Federal Reserve will do a soft landing,
01:36the U.S. economy will do a soft landing,
01:38so that the Federal Reserve will decrease its use by a soft landing there,
01:42the stock market moves up quite fast.
01:45But if we look at the manufacturing data in the U.S.,
01:51both the manufacturing data and the ISM data,
01:54both show a 47.9% and a 47.2% drop.
02:01So these two data confirm that the U.S. economy seems to have dropped a little more than expected
02:10and brought an opportunity for a recession.
02:12So at the moment, the market is certainly looking forward to the data at work at the end of the week,
02:17starting from the JOLT itself, the labor law in Prabu,
02:24then there is non-farm per barrel data in Jum'at.
02:29These data will very much confirm how the Fed works.
02:33But at the moment, the correctional market is surrounded by concerns
02:38that the U.S. economy has a chance of a recession.
02:41Another factor is that September is usually a bad month for the financial market.
02:49So it looks like people are also doing their own profit taxing.
02:54This is what causes the global market to be relatively depressed.
02:59The Indonesian market is also not hiding from the pressure.
03:03We even experienced a drop in pressure yesterday.
03:07Led by the stock market.
03:09Indeed, stocks with expensive valuations are relatively more at risk.
03:16When the market faces volatility,
03:18usually stocks with relatively expensive valuations,
03:22with fairly expensive PER and PBV,
03:25are usually far more likely to be corrected.
03:28And this is indeed dragging our index down.
03:33Stocks with expensive valuations and are likely to be corrected
03:37have been proven by brands like that.
03:40And if we talk about the global market,
03:42you said earlier that we have a lack of positive sentiment ammunition.
03:45You also mentioned the U.S. economy, which appears to be threatened by a recession.
03:52But on the other hand,
03:54there are also those who say that the chances of the Fed's collapse are relatively small
03:59because the U.S. economy is still quite sustainable.
04:03So, where is the real problem, Mr. Hans?
04:08Indeed, the U.S. economy is a bit difficult to predict.
04:13If we look at the GDP,
04:17the economic growth is still in a very solid position.
04:20But that is an indicator that is currently visible to us.
04:25If we move to the leading indicator,
04:28one of them is the PMI, which is a leading indicator
04:31that can show prospects for the future.
04:34As soon as the PMI drops below,
04:36in the future, we will see that the employment absorption will move down.
04:41So, the GDP may look pretty good,
04:45but we have to be careful that when the employment absorption is low,
04:50unemployment increases there,
04:52there is a possibility that people will lose their purchasing power.
04:55And when people lose their purchasing power,
04:57we know that the U.S. economy is 70% supported by their consumption in the country.
05:04And this is certainly what will worry.
05:07So, of course, after the PMI falls, they will wait for the next confirmation.
05:12Because there is a service PMI in May,
05:16there is a manufacturing PMI in May,
05:19then the labor market.
05:21And this labor market is one of the important ones.
05:24Okay, so there are many indicators that determine
05:27whether the U.S. economy is more likely to recede
05:32or more likely to survive,
05:34which will also affect or be a reference from the Fed
05:37for the growth of the flower family.
05:39Now, if we talk about the growth of the flower family
05:42that is projected to be announced in September,
05:46many who assess or the majority of a number of surveys
05:50see there is a chance of only 25 basis points.
05:52Mr. Han himself sees the impact.
05:54If it really happens, let's put 25 basis points.
05:58What will be the impact on our domestic capital market?
06:01Yes, the Fed is unlikely to make an aggressive flower cut
06:06unless the U.S. economy falls into a recession.
06:09So, at the September meeting,
06:12the market believes that the Fed will make a cut of 25 basis points.
06:16And I think this is quite reasonable.
06:19So, the U.S. economy looks like a soft landing
06:22thought by the Fed.
06:24Later, if it is confirmed that the U.S. economy
06:27is really weakening,
06:29unemployment is rising quite high,
06:31then the Fed will make a cut of 50 basis points.
06:34Now, for the stock market,
06:36we actually want the U.S. economy to slow down
06:39but not go into a recession.
06:41If it goes into a recession,
06:43money will move to more safe haven instruments.
06:46And that's not good for the equity industry
06:50because they will definitely leave the equity market
06:53and will probably invest more in fixed income.
06:56That's why, usually, if there is a recession,
06:59the stock market tends to go down.
07:01But, Mr. Hans, it's possible that it weakens but doesn't go into a recession,
07:05but the Fed also makes a cut of 25 basis points.
07:08Is there a correlation?
07:10Or does it have to go into a recession
07:12for the Fed to make a flower cut?
07:14Yes, the Fed will make a flower cut,
07:17but if the U.S. economy is soft-landing,
07:20it will make a slow cut.
07:22Okay, but in a flower cut,
07:24just a slow cut,
07:26for example, 25 basis points first,
07:28without having an issue,
07:30or the phenomenon that occurs is a recession in America.
07:33Yes.
07:34Okay.
07:35Later, we will discuss the opportunity of opening
07:38the joint stock market index this morning.
07:40Will it also follow the Asian stock market,
07:42or will it go down quite deep?
07:43And what should be done to prevent the meeting of the Fed
07:46around 16-17 September?
07:49This is my presentation.
07:50Okay, Mr. Hans, and Mr. Mirza,
07:52we will be back in the market segment.
07:55Thank you for being with us again, Mr. Mirza.
07:57We will still be discussing with Mr. Hans Kui,
07:59the capital market observer.
08:00Mr. Hans, the US stock market,
08:02as well as Europe,
08:03went down to the biggest daily weakness
08:06in the last month.
08:07And earlier, Nikkei Japan and other ASEAN countries went down,
08:10but most of them reached almost 4%.
08:13IHSG, this morning, what should it look like?
08:16Yes, it seems that our index has the potential
08:19to follow the global stock market.
08:21So we will definitely be quite influenced
08:23by the global stock market conditions.
08:26In addition, the domestic data
08:28does not confirm things quite well.
08:32Indeed, the announcement of Indonesia's inflation data yesterday
08:35is quite good.
08:36It means that our inflation is quite controlled.
08:38What is noted is the deflation in the month to month.
08:42Inflation in the month to month, we deflate.
08:45There are indications that the deflation occurs
08:49due to the weakening of the purchasing power of the people.
08:52So this is certainly something to pay attention to.
08:54In addition, if we look at the data released yesterday,
08:58Indonesia's P&E also returned to the level of construction.
09:04It means below 50.
09:05Previously at 49.3, now at 48.9.
09:10Indeed, there are indications that in addition to the weakening of purchasing power,
09:13the output itself that comes out of the industry also slows down.
09:18So it looks like the supply is stagnant in their warehouse
09:24due to the weakness of purchasing power.
09:27In addition, there are also indications that
09:30the entry of cheap imported goods
09:32causes our manufacturers to be relatively stressed.
09:36And this is certainly data that is not too good for us.
09:40Followed by the global condition that is experiencing a correction,
09:43we think IHSG today is very likely to be corrected.
09:48Very likely to be corrected.
09:50Interestingly, yesterday ASING was still doing net buying
09:53even though IHSG has also started to be corrected yesterday.
09:56The decline is also quite deep, 1%.
10:00Indicator that our market is doing well,
10:03can it be seen from net foreign buy,
10:05even though the correction, or how?
10:07And in the middle of this correction,
10:09what should be done by investors, especially retail?
10:12Yes, if we look at it from last month,
10:17ASING is moving into Asia, the emerging market.
10:22But what's interesting is two markets that are highly sought after,
10:26namely Malaysia and Indonesia.
10:28First, if we look at China, the economy is shaking.
10:32So far, manufacturing data and various data in China
10:37confirm that the country will not really recover.
10:41Then India, which is the primary donor, is relatively expensive.
10:45So they move to two markets that they relatively like,
10:49namely Malaysia and Indonesia.
10:51Malaysia benefits from AI issues there.
10:55In Indonesia, there are two things that are liked,
10:58the first is the budget discipline,
11:01where the government in the RAPBN reading
11:04shows a controlled deficit,
11:07even lower than before.
11:09The second is Indonesia's growth potential.
11:12So this is what caused ASING funds to move into the two markets earlier.
11:17And of course, if we look at it,
11:19if the market is corrected,
11:21usually there are two months that the market is relatively corrected,
11:26in September and October.
11:28This should also be an opportunity,
11:30the possibility that ASING funds can still inflow
11:33when there is a sale,
11:35and local actors must use the opportunity to correct
11:39to re-accumulate.