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00:00So let's get it out to New York.
00:04The Mets play in host game three of the series,
00:07screwing up against the Boston Red Sox.
00:09The Mets have taken the first two
00:12and they sit at minus 104 on the money line.
00:14It's a total of eight.
00:16So the odds makers are telling us
00:17this is very close to being a pick
00:19and what's gonna be the deciding factor
00:22out there at Citi Field today.
00:24Maybe just ride that win streak here, right?
00:26And that's the stay hot.
00:27You take a look at Tanner Houck,
00:28I guess theoretically you could say
00:29he's the best pitcher overall
00:31in that starting lineup for the Boston Red Sox.
00:34But if we take a look at his full season,
00:35he's actually pitched against 687 batters combined.
00:39His ISO power number against is 088.
00:41That's phenomenal.
00:42His weighted on base percentage against 281.
00:44Absolutely sensational.
00:46But if you take a look sometimes,
00:47as I say to myself,
00:49I don't care what you did in April, May,
00:50or even June at this point.
00:52We are now in the months
00:53where you're trying to win baseball games,
00:55high leverage situations to get into the playoffs
00:57and he hasn't performed all that well.
01:00So when I take a look at just the last 60 days
01:01and say, you know what?
01:02There's 26 pitchers on my card today.
01:05Minimum of 20 innings pitched over those past two months
01:08and Tanner Houck is 20th out of 26.
01:10To start the season,
01:11Doug, he'd routinely be in my top five.
01:13The ERA, a little bit leaky,
01:15close to four at a 3.95.
01:17But his analytical numbers in particular,
01:19his XFIP is at a 4.73.
01:21That's dangerously bad.
01:23And you're taking a look at a lineup today for the Mets
01:25that over the past 30 days
01:27has hit right-handed pitching fairly well.
01:29If you look at the first five guys in that lineup,
01:31Lindor, Nimmo, Vientos, Alonzo, and Winker,
01:34all above average with ISO power numbers
01:36against right-handed pitching.
01:37If we flip it over and take a look at a Mets perspective
01:40with what they have on the mound,
01:41Tyler McGill, not a great pitcher by any stretch,
01:43has only faced 23 batters over the past month.
01:46He's been okay, but the question marks then come up,
01:49what are we getting out of the Boston Red Sox
01:50and that lineup that I'm not saying has cooled off,
01:53but there was a time where every single left-handed
01:56batter in that lineup, I really had to get behind.
01:58Now, granted, Jaron Durant still having a fine last 30 days.
02:01You take a look at Yoshida also as well,
02:03but cooling off just a bit,
02:04Rafael Devers, Wyler Abreu, still okay numbers,
02:07but not as high as they used to be.
02:09I see that price point here where technically
02:11the Mets here on my graphic are an underdog.
02:13I'll continue to roll with the Mets.
02:15Even though the pitcher technically
02:16is better on the mound for Boston,
02:18he hasn't been that great over the past month to two months.
02:20I'll roll with the Mets once again.
02:26I'll continue to roll with the Mets.
02:26I'll continue to roll with the Mets.