日経サタデー ニュースの疑問 2024年9月7日 徹底検証!ダブル党首選 経済政策・安保は?

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日経サタデー ニュースの疑問 2024年9月7日 徹底検証!ダブル党首選 経済政策・安保は?
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00:00Good morning.
00:13Today is September 7th, and we have a question from the Nikkei Saturday News.
00:16Let me introduce our guest for this week.
00:20He is Shinnosuke Fujikawa, the Director-General of the Fujikawa Strategic Research Institute.
00:26Thank you for joining us.
00:29He is Joseph Kraft, the Executive Economic Analyst.
00:33Thank you for joining us.
00:36And he is Takuya Yokobori, the Director-General of the TV Tokyo Political Department.
00:40Thank you for joining us.
00:42Today, we are joined by these three guests.
00:46Now, let's take a look at today's headlines.
00:50Here they are.
00:53This week's headlines are, as expected, the general election of the JCPOA on the 5th.
00:59And today's headlines are the presidential election.
01:02Yes, the candidates' faces are starting to look a lot more like each other.
01:07This week, there were a lot of statements and policies that spread rumors,
01:13so we'd like to take a look at those as well.
01:16Also, this week, we have a guest,
01:19Mr. Fujikawa, who is also known as the God of Elections.
01:24I'd like you to take a look at the developments, including the general election.
01:31Yes, and today's special on the program,
01:34it says, it's a two-match game.
01:38Mr. Yabakawa, what is the catchphrase below?
01:42It's also known as the general election where there will be no more ruling.
01:46In the first place, if there are 9 people, it is said that there will be 10 people,
01:51but that itself is becoming a lump, including the candidates.
01:57Also, when it comes to the final vote,
02:00which group will go where?
02:03I think it's a process of forming a new faction.
02:06I'd like to take a look at this as well.
02:09And if you look at the headlines again,
02:12let's take a look at the August employment statistics released last night.
02:43It was a plus.
02:44This exceeded market expectations.
02:47As a result of this employment statistics,
02:49the yen market moved up to 141 yen at one point.
02:54After that, it fell to yen cheap at one point,
02:57but the end was 142 yen, 10 to 20 cents.
03:03And the New York Dow fell.
03:06This is the red line.
03:08The numbers in the employment statistics show the difficulty of the labor market,
03:12and the concerns about the decline in the U.S. economy have spread.
03:16The end was $410 cheap, $4345.
03:21Let's look at some other indicators.
03:24Nasdaq, which has a high high-tech share ratio, fell.
03:27It was 16,690 yen, 436 points cheap.
03:31This week, the daily average share price dropped by more than 2,300 yen,
03:36and Chicago's daily average share price fell by more than 1,100 yen
03:41at the end of Friday's daily average.
03:4435,255 yen.
03:47And the New York foreign exchange market,
03:49the yen market fell by 1 yen, 30 cents,
03:51to 1 dollar, 142 yen, 10 cents to 20 cents.
03:55It's a bit of a worrying situation.
03:57Mr. Kraft, what do you think?
03:59The point of the employment statistics that drew a lot of attention this time
04:04was the FOMC 17-18 in February.
04:08Here, the decline was confirmed.
04:11Whether it was a 0.25% decline or a 0.5% decline,
04:16that's what drew attention.
04:18As you can see in the data here,
04:21the number of employees was slightly lower than expected,
04:25but the unemployment rate and the average hourly wage actually overshadowed it.
04:32Looking at this, it's true that the labor market is in a difficult position,
04:37but it's not a data that would lead to a recession.
04:44The way the market looks at it is that the 0.25% decline is a bit of a relief.
04:51However, overseas hedge funds and investors are now in a very pessimistic situation
04:59and their risk tolerance is declining.
05:01That's why the reaction to positive news is so weak,
05:06and if it's even a little bad news, it reacts excessively.
05:10The reason why the average hourly wage is so low in US data
05:15is that the average hourly wage is basically 70% sold by foreign investors.
05:21That's why it's the average hourly wage that's ahead of the previous market.
05:27If the risk tolerance of foreign investors decreases,
05:30the average hourly wage will be sold by Japanese investors,
05:33and the average hourly wage will be even lower than that of US investors.
05:36Even though it's likely to stay at 0.25%,
05:39there's a bit of a situation where the yen price is going up and the stock price is going up.
05:43It's a situation that can't be done by Japanese investors.
05:46That's the weak market.
05:49I remember that this spring, the strong market,
05:53the stock price was going up and down regardless of positive news.
05:58It was a market that interpreted everything well, so it was a risk-on market.
06:03This time, it's a risk-off market that interprets everything negatively.
06:08After this, we'll have a special segment.
06:10We'll discuss with experts who are in the lead in the JCPOA.
06:15JCPOA
06:18The JCPOA will be announced next week.
06:23This week, the candidates' names have been announced.
06:30Among them, the one who attracted the most attention
06:33was the former Minister of the Environment, Koizumi,
06:38who was nominated as the right person for the JCPOA in a recent public opinion poll.
06:42I will run for the JCPOA this time.
06:47I will no longer use money that has been allowed only by politics.
06:53When I become the Prime Minister,
06:56I will explain the direction of the structural reform that will take place within a year and the mid-to-long term.
07:03I will disband the cabinet as soon as possible
07:07and I will devote the mid-to-long term to my reform plan.
07:16Mr. Koizumi expressed a strong sense of crisis that the people did not trust the JCPOA,
07:23and made it clear his determination to implement political reforms and regulations within a year.
07:31Prime Minister Motegi, who supported Prime Minister Kishida in the middle of politics and justice,
07:38and Director-General Hayashi also expressed strong support for the JCPOA.
07:45I want to implement a political system that is kind to people,
07:51and a political system that is humane.
07:56I will create the best team that can solve the problems and commit to the results.
08:03If the results do not come out within three years, I will take responsibility.
08:10On the 9th, Prime Minister Takaichi will announce the JCPOA on the 10th.
08:20As the deadline for the JCPOA deadline is approaching,
08:23members of the House of Representatives are also drawing attention.
08:30Members of the House of Representatives are also calling for a discussion on the negotiations and policies announced by each camp for the general election.
08:40Prime Minister Motegi said he would promote the ZOZEI Zero policy.
08:47The ZOZEI Zero policy would be to stop the additional burden of insurance for the child support fund,
08:55and to adopt a new fiscal policy.
09:01However, the chairman of the Onodera Security Insurance Survey criticized this statement
09:07not only for affecting the security of Japan, but also for causing problems in foreign countries.
09:15In addition, he said that while he is a member of the JCPOA, he is changing the policy of the Kishida administration.
09:27Prime Minister Ishiba said on the BS broadcast last week that he wants to strengthen the ZOZEI.
09:36However, other candidates for the general election said that they would reverse the policy of the ZOZEI.
09:51The immediate dissolution of the ZOZEI is becoming more and more realistic.
09:56Who will be elected as the chairman of the JCPOA?
10:07On the other hand, the representative election of the JCPOA was announced today.
10:14The candidates for the JCPOA are saying that they are conscious of Mr. Koizumi,
10:21who is expected to be a strong candidate for the chairman of the JCPOA.
10:27If Mr. Koizumi becomes the chairman, I want to say that he is Kenta Izumi.
10:34I won't lose.
10:37On the 6th, Prime Minister Nodamoto said that Mr. Koizumi, who stated that he would end the ZOZEI,
10:45would end it as soon as possible as he did not want to argue.
10:49He pointed out that such a true intention has become clear.
10:55Where will the general election be held?
11:03Today, we will deepen our discussion on these three themes.
11:08First, who will be the first candidate for the JCPOA?
11:12Let's take a look at the general election.
11:16Last week, former Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Digital Minister Taro Kono
11:21announced their candidacy for the JCPOA.
11:25And this week, on the 3rd, Chairman Yoshimasa Hayashi,
11:29on the 4th, Chairman Toshimitsu Motegi,
11:32and on the 6th, former Minister Shinjiro Koizumi announced their candidacy.
11:36And from now on, Minister Sanae Takaichi will be the 9th.
11:41And former Minister Katsunobu Kato will also announce his candidacy on the 10th.
11:47Mr. Fujikawa, we can see 8 candidates, including Takaichi and Kato.
11:52What do you see in the end?
11:54In terms of the number of candidates,
11:57according to the people of Japan,
12:02the JCPOA is Ishiba's 5th attempt,
12:05but the expectations are still high.
12:10Mr. Koizumi has a young sense of expectation.
12:15And Takaichi is a little behind.
12:20The situation is the same for the members of the JCPOA.
12:30But the 1.9 million people who have been supported by the JCPOA
12:37have the right to vote this time,
12:40so I think the subtle changes there are still flexible.
12:46However, what I can say is that Mr. Koizumi is overwhelmingly ahead.
12:51Mr. Ishiba is chasing him.
12:53And a little later, Mr. Takaichi.
12:55He hasn't been announced yet, so he seems to be behind.
13:00I think there is a 80% chance that Mr. Ishiba and Mr. Takaichi will be in 1st or 2nd place.
13:09Mr. Yokobori, what will happen to Mr. Kamikawa after this?
13:15Do you have any latest information?
13:17Mr. Kamikawa is now at the final stage of collecting recommendations.
13:23I would like to announce it next week if it is decided.
13:31In addition, Mr. Seiko Noda, the Minister of Economic, Trade and Industry,
13:36is also working hard to collect 20 recommendations.
13:42Mr. Fujikawa, you mentioned three names earlier.
13:47For example, if Mr. Kamikawa and Mr. Noda, who are now at the top, come out,
13:52this is like eating a woman's vote.
13:56Is that possible with Mr. Takaichi?
13:58That's right.
13:59I've heard that Mr. Noda's press conference will be a very active press conference in the near future,
14:06so maybe 20 people have been gathered.
14:10Some people have said that, but I don't know yet.
14:15Let's take a look at the system of the election.
14:45First of all, it means that if two people do not remain in the first vote, it will not be a game.
14:50At that time, the number of members will be quite different.
14:54That's right.
14:55The number of members of the National Assembly is 367, and the total number of votes is 414,
15:00so the number of members will be larger than the number of votes in the first vote.
15:05In that way, the number of members will be larger.
15:09In that way, the number of members will be larger than the number of votes in the first vote.
15:12In that way, the number of members will be larger than the number of votes in the first vote.
15:16And?
15:17And the current debate is about who is suitable.
15:22Overall, Mr. Koizumi is 23%, Mr. Ishiba is 18%, and Mr. Takaichi is 11%.
15:30And in the Liberal Democratic Party, Mr. Koizumi is 32%, Mr. Takaichi is 15%, and Mr. Ishiba is 14%.
15:39The order of Mr. Ishiba and Mr. Takaichi is reversed.
15:44Mr. Fujikawa, according to the survey conducted by Nikkei TV,
15:48the order of Mr. Koizumi, Mr. Takaichi, and Mr. Ishiba is limited to the Liberal Democratic Party.
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