After weeks of inactivity, a tropical rainstorm is taking aim at the Gulf of Mexico. Alex DaSilva explains this week's upcoming storm surge.
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00:00Joining us right now is lead Accuweather hurricane expert Alex DeSilva and Alex
00:06what an unprecedented stretch of inactivity since mid-august through
00:11today we haven't had one named storm but that is about ready that streak is about
00:17ready to end. Yeah it certainly is it looks like we're gonna have Francine
00:21here probably sometime later on today as our system in the Gulf of Mexico is
00:25really starting to get better organized in the last hour or two. Yeah let's take
00:29a look at the infrared satellite picture we have what we think is the
00:32center of circulation it's been an elongated area of low pressure but
00:36certainly on the on the infrared satellite some very dark reds showing
00:41you intense upward motion. Yeah this is a sign that the storm is starting to get
00:46its act together again in the last hour or two we've really seen those
00:49thunderstorms really start to blow up around the center of circulation
00:52hurricane hunters are going out right now they're approaching the storm we're
00:56going to be getting that data in very very shortly and look at all this
00:59lightning right around the center of circulation there again that's another
01:02sign of a organizing and intensifying tropical system. You know we've been
01:08worried since the beginning of this hurricane season that water temperatures
01:11are so warm I think nothing illustrates that more than what we're seeing with
01:16water temperatures in the Bay of Campeche. Yes certainly very impressive
01:19water temperatures mid to even upper 80s in some areas and again it's not just
01:23the waters at the surface these really warm waters extend hundreds and hundreds
01:28of feet down into the Gulf of Mexico here again just it's rocket fuel
01:32essentially for these tropical systems as they come through the area. Not much
01:36on the water vapor loop I don't see any dry air trying to come into that center
01:40of circulation now we're going to continue to see dry air though from
01:44Corpus Christi Galveston toward the Houston area that's also we have wind
01:47shear but boy look at the dark green in the last couple of hours. Yeah it really
01:52looks like the storm has found a pocket where there's low wind shear low dry air
01:56but again you just mentioned look up near Galveston you can see those clouds
01:59moving quickly to the north and to the east that's where the really strong wind
02:03shear is located so the storm right now is in a pocket where it can strengthen
02:07however once it gets up close to the Gulf Coast I think that's when the wind
02:11shear is really going to start to have an impact on this storm. And on the
02:14water vapor loop you could see that movement of air from Corpus Christi
02:18Galveston toward New Orleans that's this dip in the jet stream across the big
02:22bend of Texas this is what it looks like tomorrow Alex and that's what should
02:26protect Texas from a landfalling storm. Yeah we still need to watch the areas
02:31just northeast of Houston you know the track can wobble east and west however I
02:35do think Houston itself will be spared a direct hit from the storm as it looks
02:40like like you mentioned dip in the jet stream should turn the system a little
02:43bit to the north and east and make it landfall somewhere in western or central
02:47Louisiana Friday evening or Wednesday evening excuse me. And Alex you're
02:52talking about the low shelf along the in the Gulf of Mexico right and that's
02:57going to cause pretty combined with the storm to produce a problem with the
03:01storm surge here. Yeah the thing is in the Gulf Coast you can really go to the
03:05beach and you can really walk out pretty far out into the ocean and only have the
03:09water you know come up maybe to your waist that's something we really don't
03:12see on the East Coast where I'm from so this is this can pose a really big
03:16problem for storm surge is that really shallow continental shelf can allow the
03:20water to really pile up ahead of the shoreline and then really roar inward
03:25as the storm comes in so the the largest storm surge records in the Atlantic
03:30Basin a lot of them are from the Gulf Coast. ACUBA the lead hurricane
03:36expert Alex DeSilva. Alex thanks for joining us.