AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno and Jon Porter monitor the formation of Francine, which is expected to strengthen into a hurricane before making landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday, Sept. 11.
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00:00Maximum stay winds 65 miles per hour.
00:02The key stat on this graphic now is the movement.
00:06It is now north at five miles per hour.
00:08It was north-northwest.
00:10We expected that movement to turn toward the north.
00:13That has already happened.
00:15And then we're going to be looking to a north and northeast movement over the next 24 to
00:2036 hours.
00:21Joining me right now is AccuWeather chief meteorologist Jonathan Porter.
00:25You know, John, this has been such a very unusual hurricane season.
00:30This time of the year, we're looking for these long-track hurricanes, hurricanes that form
00:36way out in Atlantic and you have days and days to track.
00:40But this is not what has happened to Francine.
00:43It was more of a homegrown situation here as it formed yesterday.
00:49And it was strengthening, but it just goes to show you how perfect you need conditions
00:54for intensification because there was just a little bit of dry air that came into the
00:59storm center.
01:03Just the conditions have to be perfect, just like a great play in a sports, in any type
01:08of a sporting event, all the conditions have to come together just right for that play
01:12to happen.
01:13Same thing with when we're dealing with the atmosphere and to get an intensifying and
01:17especially rapidly intensifying tropical storm or hurricane.
01:20So the intensification process, though, is starting.
01:23We could see a improved presentation here on the satellite loop.
01:27And as it continues to traverse very warm water that is prime for hurricane or tropical
01:33storm and hurricane development, we're expecting this would become a more intense storm.
01:36You know, John, let's take a look at the water temperatures.
01:38I mean, they're plenty warm enough.
01:40They're in the middle 30s.
01:41But we have another product, John, that gives gives you a little more extra information.
01:47It's called the ocean heat content.
01:50And what it does is it looks at the depth of the warm water.
01:54So how warm it is is how deep the warm water is.
01:57And it gives you a number.
01:59And explain to our viewers how impressive this number is.
02:02Well, it's extremely high when you look at the long term historic average, in fact, record
02:07high in terms of that ocean heat content.
02:10And look at it's that red line on this graphic.
02:12And you can see that it's well above the blue line, which is the long term average.
02:16And there's no lines above it.
02:18So that means 2024 is the highest ocean heat content for the Gulf of Mexico when it's
02:24averaged across the entire Gulf.
02:26So this is, again, why we've been talking about the warm water and how that can be a
02:30significant impact to intensify a storm, which, of course, means greater wind, storm surge
02:36and other impacts from the storm.
02:39Three ingredients, John, for formation, warm water, sufficient moisture.
02:44We think we're going to get that second one later today.
02:47Let's talk about the wind shear.
02:49That's always another factor that we're looking at.
02:51And again, when we are considering wind shear, we're talking about wind shear is the is when
02:55you have changing wind speed and direction as you go up through the atmosphere.
02:59And when you have wind shear present in the atmosphere that can slow the intensification
03:05or prevent the intensification of a tropical storm or hurricane.
03:08So for a storm to develop and especially rapidly develop, it needs to be in an area of low
03:13wind shear.
03:14And what do we have?
03:15Low wind shear right near the storm.
03:17So this is a favorable environment.
03:19But Bernie, as the storm continues to lift to the north, the shear is going to increase
03:23a bit.
03:24And that's one of the factors we've been looking at.
03:26But as you and I were talking about, here is what makes this difficult.
03:31You look at the purple.
03:33Once you get across the upper Texas coast, Louisiana, yes, the wind shear is increasing,
03:37but it's more than just the wind shear.
03:40It's the direction pertaining along with how it relates to the movement of Francine.
03:47And it's going to be steered to the northeast.
03:50And the wind shear is coming in out of the west-southwest, John, so I've been talking
03:53about this morning.
03:54It's almost like when you take a walk in the evening and you have a gusty wind.
03:57Is the wind coming at you or at your back?
04:00And if it's at your back, it's not as detrimental?
04:02Right.
04:03And you don't notice it as much, right?
04:05It's not as problematic when you've got a wind at your back versus a cool wind right
04:10in your face.
04:11That's a great analogy.
04:12And so the storm is going to have that wind at its back because it's going to be moving
04:15to the north and east as it's guided by that jet stream disturbance.
04:19And so that shear is going to be along the track of the storm.
04:23So that means that we think it's going to have less of an impact in terms of reducing
04:27the wind intensity.
04:29And Bernie, this can be intensifying all the way as it gets to the coast, which of course
04:33can prolong impacts.
04:35And with a shift a little bit further to the east, that could mean bigger power outage
04:39and wind issues as well as storm surge in the New Orleans metro.
04:43So John, you and I were just talking about this.
04:45You know, we were talking about what's the probability?
04:48We have a Category 2 hurricane at landfall, 96 to 100 miles per hour.
04:52What's the probability that it becomes a Category 3?
04:55It's interesting.
04:56In my mind, it's about 30 percent and you were thinking about 20 percent, 15 to 20.
05:00Yeah, I was thinking 15 to 20, right.
05:02So we can't rule it out.
05:03And that's why we want people to be prepared for a higher impact storm along the Louisiana
05:08coastline right up into Baton Rouge, New Orleans, again, where if the wind is, if the
05:14wind speed is higher, there will be more power outage concerns and that could be a significant
05:18issue there.
05:19So make sure you have plenty of supplies in those areas in case you lose power, could
05:24be for days in some areas.
05:25The other concern we have, John, we have that big upper high across the Midwest.
05:30And that means as Francine loses wind intensity as we get into Wednesday, that high may block
05:37that system from moving.
05:38And that's a concern for a stalling either tropical depression or tropical rainstorm
05:43Thursday into Friday across western Tennessee and eastern Arkansas.
05:47That's an excellent point.
05:48Our team of over 100 expert meteorologists and hurricane experts were just discussing
05:53that.
05:54That is actually going to be like a traffic jam in the atmosphere.
05:56It's going to slow the motion of the storm way down.
05:59And when that happens, you get persistent downpours over the same area.
06:02So please, all the way up the Mississippi Valley, don't let your guard down.
06:06This can become a very serious flooding concern in some of those areas as well.
06:11So impacts at the coast and far inland, download the AccuWeather app.
06:15We've got all this on great interactive maps so you can understand the impact in your community
06:20and around the area.