Weekend rain in the Southeast from the storm that was Francine may be immediately followed by a new tropical system approaching North Carolina
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00:00To help us break down the weekend flood risk in the southeast, we're joined now by AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist John Porter.
00:07John, we've got a messy situation on our hands here as Francine just kind of unravels.
00:13Yes, and in that unraveling process, Jeff, we're still going to have the risk for some localized significant flash flooding
00:20because we're going to be dealing with persistent downpours over the same areas here as we head from tonight
00:26and into tomorrow and tomorrow night, centered in Alabama, but also up into parts of southwestern Tennessee as well
00:33and also the western part of Georgia.
00:35So we don't want people to let their guard down here as some of this rain is going to, again, as we mentioned,
00:41be persistent over the same areas.
00:43And even through Sunday evening, we're still into it there in places near the Missouri Boothield, northeast Arkansas,
00:48and all the way down, especially as you said, like Tennessee, Alabama, and into west Georgia.
00:54Yes, and sometimes when we end up with a tropical rainstorm that's sort of the spin in the atmosphere
01:01and the lifting motion is sort of being distributed broadly, that can lead to these pockets of very intense rainfall,
01:08and that's what we're expecting with totals of four to eight inches across the northern part of Alabama
01:13to the western part of Georgia near the Atlanta metro, although we think the heaviest of the rain
01:18and the greatest flash flood threat is probably just to the south and west.
01:22The concern is that in these areas with an AccuWeather local storm max of 14 inches over the coming days,
01:27some really extreme rainfall rates of two inches or more can occur,
01:31and where that happens, there can be a significant flash flood threat,
01:34so be especially mindful that if you're traveling, don't drive in areas where water covers the road
01:39and be aware of any warnings that are activated.
01:41Great time to download the AccuWeather app and turn on push notifications so you get those warnings for your community.
01:47We're in the secondary zone that may become front and center for us into early next week,
01:52up the Carolina coast with also two to four inches of rain for some,
01:55so this is being driven by a slightly different feature on the map.
01:58This is going to be a whole new situation.
02:01We have one area of showers and thunderstorms off the Carolina coast.
02:05As that moves away, the conditions are going to become more favorable for all these thunderstorms
02:11that you see scattered about off the southeast coast to congeal and start to organize.
02:15Our concern is they will form into a tropical rainstorm that can intensify into a tropical storm
02:21and move toward the coast by later Monday.
02:24And, John, there is a beefy zone of high pressure over the northeast right now,
02:29and that's been keeping Francine away.
02:31We could use some of that rain in West Virginia if we're not seeing it.
02:33But that, in conjunction with the low pressure to the south,
02:36it's going to be a nasty beach time even just north of the bulk of the rain for a time.
02:40Right, even if a storm does not tend to organize into a distinct area,
02:44onshore flow, increasing winds, gusty winds right at the coast,
02:48persistent rainfall, flooding concerns,
02:51and there also will be the risk for coastal flooding all the way from South Carolina
02:55up through Virginia Beach, Chesapeake Bay, and into early next week.
02:59That coastal flooding risk can move further north, even up toward New Jersey as well.
03:03And along with that, we could use some rain in some of these areas ultimately,
03:07and it's going to take its good old time in migrating north, expanding north.
03:12But where do we expect the heaviest rain to come from the coastal storm?
03:16That's our expectation as the rain slowly makes its way off to the north and to the west here
03:22over several days early next week.
03:24But significant amounts here, we're talking about 4 to 8 inches widespread
03:27near the coast in North Carolina, spreading inland,
03:30so flooding concerns once again from our new tropical storm threat.
03:34And we already have team coverage planned here with at least three locations
03:38along the North Carolina coast with a live reporter presence, storm chasers.
03:42AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist John Porter here.
03:44John, it's been a busy week. We've got another busy week ahead next week as well.
03:47Thanks again.