Panorama.S2014E31.Putins.Gamble
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00:00This summer, war returns to Europe.
00:07Somebody's just fired one of the rebels and the situation is entirely chaotic.
00:14The West faces a new threat from an enemy from the past.
00:18Russia is responsible for the violence in eastern Ukraine.
00:23Putin is already dead. Ukrainians, Russians and now Dutch Malaysians and British too.
00:30We ask all respective governments to bring to justice all these bastards who committed this international crime.
00:39The fear is, could this man start a wider conflict?
00:44Putin became a war president and now he cannot backtrack. He cannot make peace.
00:51On Panorama, we confront Vladimir Putin.
00:55I'd like to ask you a question about the war, sir. I'm sorry, sir, the killings in the Ukraine, thousands of dead.
01:01Do you regret the killings in the Ukraine?
01:04No sooner than a ceasefire was declared, it broke down.
01:08It's the innocent who pay the price.
01:11The Roman here is not even a day old and he's only known war.
01:33This war has been simmering for a long time.
01:40Many Ukrainians wanted to move closer to the West.
01:46Violent protests followed. Then seven months ago, the first shots.
01:55In a single day, 51 Ukrainians were gunned down.
02:04Snipers picked them off one by one.
02:10A new pro-Western government emerged in Kiev.
02:17The Kremlin's response? To stir up rebellion in the Crimea.
02:23Russia sees what it's doing as defensive. There is no country closer to them than Ukraine.
02:28It's sort of Scotland to their England.
02:33They were a ghost army. Soldiers wearing masks, stripped of anything that might identify them, occupied Crimea.
02:42They were Russian troops. Mr Putin was quick to justify his actions.
02:48Putin has a maniacal fear of the possibility of Russia's collapse.
03:13He fears it so much that he throws himself in the opposite direction when he senses a threat.
03:27In Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine, many took to the streets, angry about Kiev's shift to the West.
03:34But the rebellion was faltering.
03:38Enter the Kremlin's ghost army.
03:46The original idea of those who started this war was that the people would rise up, but they didn't.
03:55Volunteers came from Russia, and some local people took up arms to defend their homeland.
04:00The numbers just weren't there.
04:08The ghost army kept the rebellion going.
04:13To date, the war has cost 3,000 lives.
04:19Welcome to Novorossiya, New Russia, an idea promoted by Vladimir Putin.
04:36This is Donetsk, the capital of rebel-held Ukraine.
04:40Government barely functions, if at all.
04:44The panic war brings has come here, too.
04:49So, this will give you an example of what's happening. We've just heard a muffled explosion.
04:54There are reports of a shootout at the railway station.
04:59The Ukrainian army are at the city gates.
05:07The rebels take shelter in Donetsk railway station.
05:17So, the situation is the Ukrainian army is three kilometers that way, and people are terrified there's going to be an enormous battle here.
05:25We're right underneath the railway station, and people are leaving.
05:32The city has just fired one of the rebels, and the situation is entirely chaotic.
05:37Civilians are terrified.
05:41That day, several people were killed, but much of the city stayed intact, and life carried on.
05:54Later, the Ukrainian army targeted a rebel base in town, but they missed.
06:03Shrapnel hit the maternity hospital.
06:09We just heard a crump of artillery, distant, not that close.
06:13But, nevertheless, the patients and some of the staff have run down here to the basement, because it's the safest place in the whole hospital.
06:24What kind of world is the next generation being born into?
06:28Many here have little love for Ukraine's new president, Poroshenko.
06:33Poroshenko and his relatives have grandchildren and grandchildren, just like us.
06:38Look, there's no light in the wards.
06:41Is it possible to live like this, under these shelling?
06:44I don't know. I don't want to say anything.
06:48Tell them to let the whole world rise up.
06:50There's no need for this.
06:52This is horrible.
06:55The laundry in this part of the basement now serves as the premature baby unit.
07:02We're afraid for the lives of our children, for our own lives, after all.
07:06But the maternity hospital should be a sacred place for everyone.
07:10I don't understand, I can't imagine how it's possible to be so cruel to people like this.
07:15This has become a media war, and Mr Putin is fanning the flames.
07:20Small towns and big cities are surrounded by the Ukrainian army,
07:26which directly strikes the residential areas.
07:31It's not sad, it reminds me of the events of the Second World War,
07:35when German-Fascist occupants, German-Fascist troops,
07:39surrounded our cities, for example, Leningrad.
07:44This is Donetsk last month.
07:50This is not the Nazi siege of Leningrad, or anything like it.
07:56The huge naivety of Russians has been used by those who have spread this war.
08:02The people want justice.
08:04They've been told that it will be just if we beat the Fascists, and they believed in it.
08:09But it turned out to be a bloody civil war of brother killing brother.
08:20Putin's war has been massively popular in Russia.
08:25Alexander Dugin, a nationalist who has the Kremlin's ear, explains why.
08:31The Russian population is in the majority inclined towards nationalism,
08:38and towards empire, towards powerful Russia, and Putin could not ignore that.
08:45Putin has no possibility to go out from this game,
08:50because he will immediately lose any support.
08:57One Russian opinion poll gave Putin an approval rating of 82%.
09:06On the ground in Ukraine, these chaps give him an even higher endorsement.
09:13Do you trust the word of Mr Putin?
09:16He's our president, and we're proud of him.
09:20He's a great person. I'm serious. I'm honestly ready to die for him.
09:27These rebels come from Stalin's neck of the woods.
09:30Do you think Stalin was a good guy?
09:34Stalin? Stalin was a man. Putin is a bit smaller than Stalin, but he's OK.
09:40He has everything ahead of him.
09:43This isn't Putin's first war. It's his third.
09:51First there was Chechnya.
09:55Then Georgia.
10:02And now Ukraine. Its new government is rubbing shoulders with the West.
10:07Another separation Russia cannot bear.
10:11The sun may be shining, but don't be fooled.
10:14Here in Moscow, the citadel of Vladimir Putin's power,
10:19things are getting chillier by the day.
10:26He probably isn't going to do anything monstrous, but he's the only limit to that.
10:31There's not a single person, nor a single institution that can limit Putin.
10:36He's the commander-in-chief, and the only limit.
10:43Gleb Pavlovsky used to be Putin's spin doctor.
10:46Now he fears Putin is spinning out of control.
10:53Putin is, by nature, one of the most powerful people in the world.
10:59Putin is, by nature, a serious gambler.
11:02For a gambler, success is precisely where the greatest danger lies.
11:07This leads to more gambling.
11:09In the long run, the casino beats even the most experienced player.
11:22By mid-July, the rebels were losing,
11:25in part because the government had an air force and they didn't.
11:30In Shneisnoye, Ukrainians targeted a rebel base,
11:34but the bombs fell on this apartment block.
11:37Did the Kremlin send a big anti-aircraft weapon across the border to even up the odds?
11:50One, two, three, four, five, six.
11:56Was this the moment when Putin's gamble went horribly wrong
12:00and a passenger jet was shot down by mistake?
12:05MH17 came from the west, where the sun is setting over there,
12:09from Amsterdam.
12:11Here we are in the eastern Ukraine, headed east for Malaysia,
12:15and bang, and the lives of nearly 300 people were extinguished.
12:22Amongst the dead, 193 Dutch, 43 Malaysians,
12:2827 Australians and ten Britons.
12:35The debris is strewn across ten miles in rebel-held territory.
12:43Another site, more wreckage.
12:47Here, the engines and the wheels came to rest.
12:51You can't see it, but this whole place stinks.
12:53It stinks of aviation fuel, it stinks of the dead.
12:57This is a monstrous crime.
13:02Truth is a stranger to these killing fields.
13:05In a war fought by ghost soldiers, lies stuck up like the corpses.
13:10But who's responsible for this?
13:14Some people say that man is in the Kremlin.
13:23After the Boeing crashed, the Russians said it was shot down
13:27by a Ukrainian fighter jet.
13:30Here in Moscow, a Russian general briefs the world.
13:44HE SPEAKS RUSSIAN
13:53So did a Ukrainian fighter shoot down MH17?
13:57What's left of the fuselage provides a major clue.
14:01They all show a large number of these small holes.
14:05That, to me, says blast fragmentation warhead.
14:09The fragments are designed to puncture the aircraft structure.
14:14It's like a shotgun, basically.
14:17A missile from a jet fighter would have blasted a big hole.
14:21This shrapnel damage points to a Soviet-designed missile launcher
14:25called a Buk.
14:31But the prime suspects were the rebels.
14:34Alexander Borodai was their self-styled prime minister.
14:40HE SPEAKS RUSSIAN
14:48Is this true? It matters because most Russians believe him.
14:55We set out to investigate exactly what happened to MH17.
14:59And that's not easy in a war zone.
15:04This is the road out of Zugres, east of Donetsk.
15:07Deep in rebel-held territory.
15:12This footage was filmed on the outskirts of town.
15:16In the video, you can see the Buk missile launcher on a road.
15:21And in the foreground, there is a blue box and a pillar.
15:25Blue box, pillar.
15:28We believe the Buk came along this road, tracking east.
15:34The rebel denial is further undermined by this image,
15:38taken 10 miles from the crash site.
15:42Which shows a low loader with red ramps going up this hill.
15:47And on it, a Buk anti-aircraft missile launcher.
15:52That missile launcher went up this hill.
15:59Both images were distributed by the Ukrainian government.
16:02Could they be fake?
16:04We spoke to two eyewitnesses who were in the next town along that day.
16:09They feared being identified.
16:12We just saw it being offloaded.
16:14And when the Buk started its engine,
16:16the exhaust smoke filled the whole town square.
16:19Were the crew with the Buk local?
16:22They had pure Russian accents.
16:24They say the letter G differently to us.
16:28Both eyewitnesses believe the Buk crew were Russian.
16:32One said a soldier spoke with a Moscow accent.
16:36This is the first time that the missile launcher's crew
16:39have been potentially identified as Russian,
16:42and that means the Kremlin has questions to answer.
16:47Two hours later, at 4.20pm, locals heard two bangs.
16:52MH17 disappeared off the radar screen.
16:58There's more.
17:00This disputed image shows the Buk at dawn the next day,
17:03apparently heading towards Russia, with one warhead missing.
17:08The Russians have felt the need to step up their support for the dissidents.
17:14Material is no doubt coming across,
17:16including more than likely the Buk missile.
17:20MUSIC
17:26Ukrainian intelligence, their version of MI5, have their own theory.
17:34They invited Panorama into their Kiev HQ.
17:38They suspect that this was a plot to shoot down a Russian passenger jet
17:43to give Mr Putin a pretext for invading Ukraine.
17:47If the Buk-1 launch was stationed here, was deployed to this position,
17:53it would have a clear vision of the air fleet coming.
17:57And if they launch missile from this place,
18:00the plane could crash somewhere on the territory
18:03that was controlled by Ukrainian army.
18:06We're not for sure that Russians were ready to invade that night.
18:12So you're seriously suggesting that MH17 was shot down by mistake
18:18because the Russians meant to shoot down one of their own civilian airliners?
18:24It looks like.
18:26It appears like that.
18:29Has Putin's gambling led to this?
18:32That he's now such a bogeyman to some
18:35that the unthinkable becomes all too thinkable.
18:42But the explanation which best fits the evidence
18:45is that the Buk crew thought they were firing at a Ukrainian military plane
18:50and they got it wrong.
18:52In war, mistakes are made.
18:58What Putin did next was to reshuffle his cards.
19:02The leaders of the rebellion, Prime Minister Borodai
19:05and Defence Minister Strelkov, were sent home to Moscow.
19:11The new rebel leader, Alexander Zakharchenko,
19:14also echoes the party line.
19:19We have no capability to shoot down aircraft at such high altitude.
19:23None at all.
19:26So how did he explain photos of the Buk on rebel territory?
19:33If you are so knowledgeable about the Buk systems,
19:35then you will know better.
19:37Looking at this picture, I would say that this shows
19:39the back of a truck carrying some unknown equipment
19:42and a missile launcher.
19:46At last, an admission of sorts.
19:52Tomorrow, the Dutch Safety Board will announce its initial findings
19:55into the downing of MH17.
19:59MUSIC
20:06Putin's next move was to paint hundreds of Green Army lorries white
20:11and re-baptise them an aid convoy.
20:17This so-called humanitarian convoy was, I think,
20:20a classic Kremlin stunt.
20:22It exemplifies the way in which Russia has mixed
20:25with what one might call information warfare,
20:27with confusing public relations stunts,
20:30which just distract Western attention, which muddle the story
20:34and make people think it's all very complicated.
20:36I'd rather not pay attention.
20:38These graves are part of the new battleground in the Info War.
20:43Here lie Russian soldiers who are thought to have died in Ukraine.
20:47The dates they died, August 19th and 20th this year,
20:51point to them being Ghost Army.
20:55The whole war, Russian war in Ukraine, undeclared war,
20:59the so-called hybrid war, is based on falsification.
21:04And this war probably is the perfect case of falsification
21:08on the part of the Kremlin.
21:13This video was shot from the Ukrainian bus.
21:16This armoured column was filmed, it seems,
21:19not far from the Russian border inside Ukraine.
21:28The view from the back of the bus shows pretty much
21:31a full mechanised battalion of the Russian army.
21:36This and other Russian firepower shift the focus
21:39to the Ukrainian side.
21:42This and other Russian firepower
21:44shifted the military position dramatically.
21:52Late last month, Ukraine's army, which had been winning,
21:56was on the retreat.
22:02The game-changer on the front line was not the rebels,
22:06but the Kremlin's Ghost Army.
22:11With Ukraine invaded, how would the West reply?
22:27The answer came at a NATO summit in Wales.
22:30Tougher sanctions, but militarily, Ukraine's on its own.
22:36Mikhail Khodorkovsky is underwhelmed by the West's response.
22:41Once Russia's richest man, he crossed Mr Putin
22:44and spent ten years behind bars.
22:50The West has clearly demonstrated its weakness,
22:53and it is weak indeed.
22:55Putin knows that and will keep on taking advantage of it.
23:01You must understand this.
23:04Can the West do anything substantial?
23:11It could if the Western political leaders
23:14were thinking more strategically.
23:17I don't think that will happen.
23:22It may look as if the gambler has outplayed
23:25a divided West at every turn.
23:28I think Putin has switched from chess to poker.
23:31The long-term aims are the same as they've always been,
23:34to bust the West, to establish Russian sway and domination
23:38over the former empire, to try and divide Europe and America.
23:42But he's certainly raised the stakes.
23:46The West may have got fed up with Putin,
23:49but there are other points on the compass.
23:52The Kremlin roadshow has come to Yakutsk in Siberia,
23:55six time zones east from Moscow,
23:58to launch a multi-billion-pound gas deal with the Chinese.
24:05After the first round of Western sanctions started to bite,
24:09Putin announced a new pipeline to China.
24:13Russia is turning to the east.
24:17It's a signal to the West,
24:19but some people are still eager to do business with Russia, come what may.
24:32We've got a lot of people coming in from all over the world.
24:36We've got a lot of people coming in from all over the world.
24:39We've got a lot of people coming in from all over the world.
24:43Before he was locked up,
24:45Mikhail Khodorkovsky went head-to-head with Mr Putin.
24:49What makes Vladimir Putin tick?
24:52Is he rational?
24:56He's changed a lot.
24:58He used to be more rational.
25:00Now he allows himself to be emotional.
25:03Now many of his actions depend on emotion.
25:06And that does not bode well.
25:10The prospect of democratic change of power in Russia does not exist any more.
25:15The country is already paying in blood for the lack of political change,
25:19and there will be more blood in the future.
25:25Here Mr Putin is treated like an emperor.
25:29He's a man of his word.
25:33Here Mr Putin is treated like an emperor.
25:42I wanted to challenge him about his absolute denial of involvement in the war.
25:47Mr Putin, John Sweeney from the BBC.
25:50I'd like to ask you a question about the war, sir.
25:52I'm sorry, sir, the killings in the Ukraine.
25:54Thousands of dead, thousands of dead.
25:57Ukrainians, Russians, Malaysians, British, Dutch.
26:01So, sir, do you regret the killings in the Ukraine?
26:05I've been there. I've seen it for my own eyes.
26:32Mr Putin knows how to spirit away a tough question.
26:37He is, after all, the general of the Ghost Army.
26:48But what are the Russians doing, sir?
26:50There's a question about what the Russians are doing, and in fact the plan.
26:54So, some answers there from Mr Putin.
26:59But the central question is what the Russians are doing.
27:01No answer at all.
27:05Two days later on Mongolian TV, a rare show of emotion from the man with the poker face.
27:12The tune, the old Soviet anthem, which under him is once again Russia's.
27:18Mr Putin has a romantic longing for the old Soviet Union, for Russian greatness.
27:25And that sets him on a collision course with the West.
27:29I don't think that Putin is going to give way.
27:32This is not for him an economic issue.
27:34And he's in any sense so heavily engaged now that to back off could easily be politically fatal for him, so he's not going to do it.
27:42The future, according to this former Kremlin insider, could be truly bleak.
27:50There are the famous words said by Gray.
27:53Lamps are going out all over Europe.
27:56We shall not see them lit again in our lifetime.
28:03I do not believe in a way back.
28:05I think we are at the beginning of a series of crises that will change the landscape of the world.
28:12The landscape of Ukraine has already been torn by war.
28:18Russia's other neighbours are watching their borders and wondering if Mr Putin will roll the dice again.