MEDI1TV Afrique : LE GRAND JOURNAL MIDI - 19/09/2024
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00:00Welcome to MEDIEN TV, it's time for the big MEDIEN news, we start with the headlines.
00:2137 dead and more than 3,500 injured, this is the provisional report of the two explosions
00:27of the Hezbollah transmitter in Lebanon, enough to exacerbate the fears of a total war with Israel.
00:38The Palestinian president must meet the Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez today,
00:45this is Mahmoud Abbas' first visit to the country since Madrid recognized the state of Palestine in May.
00:58And then it's a first since 2020, the US Central Bank, the FED, has decreased its rates yesterday
01:06with a drop of half a point. Decision taken during the last meeting of the institution
01:12before the US presidential election on November 5th.
01:17It's a report that has just been reviewed at the AUS, 37 dead and more than 3,500 injured across Lebanon.
01:29This is the provisional report of the two explosions of the Hezbollah transmitter in Lebanon,
01:37a report relayed by the Lebanese Ministry of Health, enough to exacerbate the fears of a total war with Israel.
01:46This new wave comes as a result of a similar attack that occurred after the announcement by Israel
01:54that it would extend the objectives of the war against the Hamas at its northern border with Lebanon.
02:04And we also learn that the talkiwalki suspected of having exploded on Wednesday in Lebanon
02:13have not been produced for more than ten years now.
02:16This is what the Japanese company that manufactures them, ICV82, said on Thursday.
02:23It is a portable radio that has been produced and exported, including in the Middle East, from 2004 to October 2014,
02:31ICOM specifies, which has thus reacted following information from the New York Times and Israeli media
02:39which mentioned this model. It was abandoned about ten years ago and since then it has not been shipped by our company, ICOM insists.
02:49The production of the necessary batteries for the operation of the main unit has also been interrupted.
02:55It added that the products intended for foreign markets were sold exclusively through its aggregate distributors.
03:04The UN General Assembly calls for the end of the Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories.
03:16This resolution, a first, presented on behalf of the State, an observer of Palestine,
03:22has been adopted by 124 votes for, 14 against, including Israel and the United States, and also 43 abstentions.
03:33The non-constraining text, I remind you, requires that Israel end its illicit presence in the Palestinian territories
03:41without delay and that it be done later, 12 months after the adoption of this resolution.
03:47A new Israeli attack on a school in Gaza during this time has killed five people in the Palestinian enclave for several months now.
03:57This army claims to be targeting schools, sheltering fighters, Hamas,
04:02accusations each time refuted by the Palestinian movement, the development of our armies.
04:08Human evidence is constantly being reviewed in the Gaza Strip.
04:13Palestinian authorities have identified five civilians killed in an air strike targeting a school.
04:18Many schools used as shelters for displaced people have been targeted by the Israeli army in recent months.
04:26Without concrete evidence, Israeli troops accuse Hamas of using these establishments to hide fighters among the civilian population,
04:35while the Palestinian movement denies these accusations.
04:38To try to put an end to this conflict, the US Secretary of State is on a business trip to Egypt.
04:43During an interview with the Egyptian president, Antony Blinken pleaded for a cessation of hostilities in the Gaza Strip.
04:50Just to emphasize again, what a critical partner.
04:54I would like to emphasize once again how much Egypt has been a partner for regional peace, regional stability and regional security,
05:01not more than in the efforts to end a ceasefire.
05:05We are truly grateful for this partnership. Egypt plays an essential role.
05:09The vast majority of the 2.4 million inhabitants of the Gaza Strip have been displaced several times since the beginning of the hostilities.
05:18At least 41,300 Palestinians have been killed in Israeli bombings since October 7.
05:25The majority of the victims are women and children.
05:33In the news also, this visit of the Palestinian president in Spain, Mahmoud Abbas,
05:40meets the Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez.
05:44This is the first visit of Abu Mazen in the country since Madrid last recognized the state of Palestine in May.
05:52This rare visit to the Spanish capital is therefore due to the invitation of Spain.
06:00The Palestinian president must then go to New York to participate in the United Nations General Assembly.
06:08Mahmoud Abbas should also be received by King Felipe VI of Spain.
06:13This visit is followed, I remind you, at the recognition on May 28, very precisely by Spain,
06:20in concert with Ireland and Norway of the State of Palestine.
06:25The Spanish government then announced a first bilateral summit between Spain and Palestine by the end of the year.
06:38And on his side, Joe Biden will discuss next Monday with the President of the United Arab Emirates.
06:46Going from war in Gaza to Sudan, as well as to the development of artificial intelligence,
06:54the American president will welcome the White House.
06:57Dear Mohamed Ben Zayed Al Nahyad, this visit is the first of a president of an Arab country in the Gulf, in Washington.
07:07Vice President Kamala Harris will meet separately the leader of the United Arab Emirates.
07:13The meetings will also focus on the climate, clean energy and the role of the United Arab Emirates
07:17as a partner of the World Partnership for Infrastructure of the Group of Seven.
07:28I told you in title, it's a first.
07:30Since 2020, the American central bank, the FED, has decreased its rates yesterday,
07:36striking hard, according to experts, with a drop of half a point.
07:40Experts who speak of a beginning of this drop intervene during the last meeting of the institution
07:49before the presidential election of November 5.
07:52According to them, this drop in rates should give back the purchasing power to the American households,
07:56stuck between high inflation and high credit costs.
08:00And although the FED is independent of political power,
08:03a month and a half from the duel between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump,
08:07this decision could give a push to the current Vice President Joe Biden,
08:12and, on the other hand, gnaw the teeth of the opposing camp.
08:16We will talk about it precisely in the context of the guest of the Thirteen Hours, in the guest of the Grand Journal.
08:24We leave for France, where the political crisis does not end.
08:32The formation of the government is entangled again,
08:37with tensions, this time between Michel Barnier, frankly named,
08:41and the Macronists, in search of clarification on their place in the future team.
08:47The new Prime Minister has already indicated that he has discovered, I quote,
08:51a very serious budgetary situation.
08:55End of quote.
08:56Meetings in Matignon were thus postponed.
09:01The blur persists, therefore, two weeks after his nomination.
09:05While he had promised to name a team in the very next few days,
09:09Michel Barnier seems forced to delay his consultations.
09:16Back on the continent now, with hundreds of thousands of lives threatened by the fighting in Sudan,
09:27in the city of al-Fashr, high-ranking UN officials are worried about the escalation of the war in Darfur.
09:34Hundreds of thousands of civilians are now facing the risks of mass violence,
09:39as Marta Poubey, the UN Secretary-General for Africa, said in front of the Security Council.
09:47The war, I remind you, broke out in April 2023 in this country,
09:51and caused tens of thousands of deaths and displaced millions of people,
09:56thus provoking one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world,
10:00according to the United Nations, with risks of general famine here.
10:09We continue with the African Union, which firmly condemns terrorist attacks
10:16that targeted the police academy and other places in Bamako, Mali, 48 hours ago.
10:21A condemnation formulated by Moussa Fakim Mahamat in a statement.
10:25The President of the UN Commission presented his sincere condolences to the security and defense forces,
10:32to the families of the victims, to the authorities of the transition and to the people of Mali.
10:39He wished a prompt recovery to the wounded.
10:42For the President of the UN Commission, these attacks highlight with strong evidence
10:48the need to double collective efforts to fight more effectively
10:53and with more solidarity with Mali and other Sahel countries
10:58of terrorist attacks, both at the national, regional and international level.
11:08We go to Tunisia, where one of the three presidential candidates, Ayashi Zamel,
11:14was sentenced to one year and eight months in prison for accusations related to sponsorship falsifications.
11:22He was thus inflicted this sentence by the first instance court of Jemdouba,
11:27his team of lawyers will appeal.
11:29The sentence was pronounced in the absence of the accused,
11:32says his lawyer, who did not specify the reasons for this sentence.
11:38Ayashi Zemal, however, remains in Lisbon for the elections.
11:43As a reminder, during the previous hearing in 2019,
11:48businessman Nabil Karoui was elected in the second round,
11:52while he was in prison.
11:55Zamel was elected a former deputy and leader of a liberal industrial party
12:02unknown to the general public until his candidacy.
12:04He was arrested on September 2 last year.
12:12A word on the World Cup 2024 in Futsal in Uzbekistan.
12:16The selection of the Moroccan team of Futsal, Hichem Dguig,
12:19is expected to be a close game,
12:22disputed during the next outing against Panama, back to the wall,
12:29after its heavy defeat against Portugal.
12:32A victory during this second meeting will mean the qualification for us,
12:38he said, in return for Panama.
12:40This is the last chance, concluded Hichem Dguig in his pre-match conference.
12:46We are ready for all scenarios and we want to qualify for us
12:49from the second match without having to take out the calculators.
12:53Atilti.
13:00Morocco, crossed by a new weather alert.
13:03Stormy, hail and gusts of wind are expected from Thursday to Sunday.
13:10In several provinces, these storms will exceed locally 50 mm
13:15over 24 hours are concerned the provinces of Smara, Dasazag and Tata,
13:21but also those of Ouarzazate, Guilmim, Sidi Ifni, Tiznit, Bouchdour or Tarodent.
13:37We continue with the guest of the big newspaper of the afternoon.
13:40I told you earlier, the Central American Bank has decreased its rate by half a point yesterday,
13:46a first since 2020.
13:48This decision was made during the last FED meeting
13:52before the US presidential election, which is scheduled for November 5th.
13:56We are talking about it with our guest, the economist analyst,
14:01Mohamed Dajedri Bonsu.
14:03Hello and welcome to you.
14:06Hello, thank you for the invitation.
14:08So, the FED has just lowered its rates by 0.5%,
14:14a first in about four years.
14:16What is your first reading of this decision,
14:19described as historic by many experts?
14:24First of all, it's good news.
14:26It's good news for the American economy,
14:29for the global economy in general.
14:32It's the first drop in the rate by the Federal Bank
14:37after 11 increases since 2020.
14:41It will give a positive boost to the American economy.
14:49I think it's a good thing.
14:52It will only have a psychological impact in the first place,
14:58because until today, the rate remains a little high.
15:02If we compare the FED in 2020, which was at 0.25%,
15:07to today, which is at 5.25%, it's a big difference.
15:12So, the credit rate at the American level is still high,
15:16but it will give a psychological effect to the American economy in the first place.
15:23That is, we are starting to see the inflationary wave behind us.
15:30It will be a first drop,
15:33because even the Federal Bank said it would make a second drop
15:39by the end of 2024.
15:42So, when we see the rate curve,
15:47it's the same thing that was reproduced in 2000, 2010 and 2015.
15:52So, today is the beginning of the rate drop,
15:56and it will be a positive point for the global economy.
16:00OK. So, you are talking about the global economy.
16:05You spoke, Mohamed Djadry, about a good news for the American economy,
16:10about a psychological effect.
16:12So, what positive impact will this drop have on the American economy in particular,
16:19but also on the global economy in general?
16:22You just mentioned it.
16:25Absolutely. It will have a positive effect on the American economy in the first place.
16:31Why? Because today, the credit rate will start to drop,
16:38and by the end of the year, we will have a second decrease of 4% or even 3.75%.
16:47It will be something positive for the American economy.
16:51Investors will start to invest again,
16:55because the credit rate will be adequate with their investment commitments,
17:01and it will also have a positive effect on the purchasing power of the Americans in general,
17:10because we know very well that, at the American level,
17:13the use of credit cards, debit cards, is at a high level at the American level.
17:20So, people will improve their purchasing power,
17:25they will start buying goods and services by the end of the year or at the beginning of 2025,
17:32and we will have an increase in demand at the domestic level,
17:37which will of course impact the international economy in general.
17:42Okay. So, you mentioned the increase in purchasing power for households.
17:48Does this decrease in rates also mark the end of the most aggressive campaign against inflation since the 80s, according to experts?
17:59Absolutely. The inflation rate in the United States in April 2022 has set records since the 80s,
18:09because it was at 9.1%. Today, it is between 2 and 3%.
18:15So, as I just said earlier, today we can say that the inflation wave is behind us,
18:22except for complications, if there will be tensions in the Middle East, a war between Israel and Iran
18:29will impact the barrel rate at the international level.
18:32But today, the prospects are positive.
18:35We are back to adequate inflation rates for the American economy,
18:46but also for the global economy, between 2 and 3%.
18:51It has nothing to do with the inflation rate of 8 or 9% at the American and international levels.
18:58Okay. So, Mohamed Jadri, this decrease has not gone unnoticed by American politicians,
19:06especially Republicans. Is it a push to Kamala Harris, as some say,
19:12in view of the presidential election scheduled in November? And if so, why?
19:18Of course, of course. This decrease of the Director-General of the American Federal Bank
19:24has been seen as a negative point of view by the Republicans,
19:31because they say that the Governor of the Federal Bank is giving a push to Kamala Harris
19:37for her election campaign, which will be in the fall of 2024.
19:42So, the American economy will be positive in a few months.
19:47There will be an improvement in purchasing power.
19:49There are even accusations by the Republicans that the Governor of the American Federal Bank
19:57is playing in favor of the Democratic candidate and in defiance of the Republican candidate.
20:06But I think it's just a coincidence, because today, the inflation rate is adequate
20:14for the Moroccan economy, between 2 and 3%. It's not 6 or 8 or 9%.
20:18We'll talk about it.
20:20And also, today, we have to restart the American economy to have growth rates
20:26as was the case before the health crisis.
20:31Okay, so the decrease in interest rates from the Fed, will it also stimulate,
20:36according to you, commercial real estate in the United States,
20:40an important part of the American economy as well?
20:43Of course, of course.
20:45When we lower the interest rate of the Federal Bank,
20:52that is to say that the cost of credit, whatever it is,
20:55the credit for consumption, the credit for investment,
20:58the credit for the purchase of real estate will also be adequate,
21:05because if there is an investor who would like to buy a real estate asset,
21:10but the credit rate is 8 or 9 or 10%,
21:15he will hesitate once or twice, but when there will be an adequate rate.
21:21But just, we must remember a positive element,
21:23that the positive effect of this decrease will take place from 2025.
21:31Because today, the rate is still high,
21:34because when we compare it with February or January 2020,
21:38it was at 0.25, whereas today it is at 4.75, at 5%.
21:45So there will be a first decrease today,
21:49there will be a second before the end of the year 2024,
21:52but there will be a third and a fourth in the first half of 2025.
21:57And at that time, we can say that there will be
22:00both the improvement of investment
22:02and also there will be an impact on commercial real estate in the United States.
22:06So there is another question that arises and that has its importance,
22:11Mohamed Javid, it is that of the impact on cryptocurrencies.
22:15What will it be in this context?
22:18Of course, when there will be the ease of access to financing,
22:25whatever it is for credit, consumption.
22:28After the third point and the second victory?
22:31It is obvious that today people will once again think about cryptocurrencies.
22:39And I think that Bitcoin, for example,
22:42will be increased again in the coming months in a proportional way.
22:47But from 2025, there will be a significant increase
22:51because there will be a strong demand
22:53because people will have easier access to financing than before.
22:59Especially since between 2000, 2020 and 2024,
23:03access to financing in the United States was very, very difficult
23:06and people hesitated to invest.
23:09This will not be the case in the coming months.
23:13And I insist on this,
23:14it will be the positive impact of the decrease in the director's rate by the US Federal Bank
23:20will have the real impact from the end of the first half of 2025.
23:28One last question, Mohamed Jadri,
23:30with the dollar bouncing after this decrease in interest rates from the Fed,
23:36what impact will it have on the diram?
23:41Of course, there will be an impact, but the impact is relative.
23:44Why? Because the Moroccan diram basket is made up of 60% of the euro and 40% of the dollar.
23:53So when there is an increase in the dollar,
23:56there will always be a decrease in relation to the euro and vice versa.
23:59So what we will lose in relation to the dollar, we will win in relation to the euro.
24:04And in general, I think at least by the end of 2024 or 2025,
24:10there will not be a big loss of the diram in relation to the dollar
24:15because even the decrease in the director's rate is at 0.5,
24:21which is not so much desired by the American economy.
24:27But from next year, we will see projections at the European level to have the impact.
24:36But we must not forget that the exchange of the Moroccan diram is managed by the Central Bank
24:43and we do not see that there will be a decrease of less than 5% or more than 5%
24:49because our monetary policy always manages the diram in relation to the international currency,
24:57in relation to the currency, whether it is the euro or the dollar in a specific way.
25:03Thank you very much, Mohamed Jadri, for answering the questions of the Grand Journal du Midi on Média TV.
25:11I remind you that you are an economic analyst. Thank you.
25:19And that's it for this edition. Thank you for following it. See you later.