MotorTrend's Ed Loh & Jonny Lieberman chat with Principal Analyst for Guidehouse Insights
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00:00:00Welcome to The Inevitable, a podcast by Motor Trend.
00:00:15Hi there, and welcome to The Inevitable.
00:00:17This is Motor Trend's podcast.
00:00:19It's our vodcast about the future of the car,
00:00:21the future of transportation, the future of mobility.
00:00:24And boy, do we have a great guest for you today.
00:00:27It's former colleague of mine and a friend, Sam Abulsamed.
00:00:31He is an industry analyst.
00:00:33But before we get to Sam, my co-host, Ed Lowe,
00:00:36he's got a message just for you.
00:00:38The Inevitable Vodcast is brought to you
00:00:40by the all-electric Nissan Ariya,
00:00:42inspired by the future, designed for the now.
00:00:45And right now, we have a question.
00:00:47It comes from an Instagrammer by the name of
00:00:50atgrindertv, Brian Goudie, G-O-U-D-I-E.
00:00:54It could be Goudie.
00:00:55He says, I listen to a lot of podcasts,
00:00:56but I do not think I've ever heard anyone
00:00:58from the actual EPA be interviewed.
00:01:00Is this something they shy away from?
00:01:02They are the ones guiding us through all of these changes,
00:01:04finding some chops, people, et cetera.
00:01:06What a great question.
00:01:07Is there a way to have a representative on the show?
00:01:09And indeed, a great question.
00:01:10And I will just say that we have tried
00:01:12having people from government agencies on.
00:01:16We tried to get Missy Cummings when she was working for,
00:01:19I think it was DSA or DOT.
00:01:21She was a huge critic of Elon about autonomy.
00:01:24And it was just hard.
00:01:25It was hard.
00:01:26There was some red tape.
00:01:27And it's like, hey, could you fly a bureaucrat out
00:01:29to Beverly Hills to hang out with guys from the car magazine?
00:01:32We don't do Zoom recordings,
00:01:35which puts us at a huge disadvantage.
00:01:37But we feel it's worth it to have the conversation live
00:01:40and in person.
00:01:41So it's hard to get those folks out here.
00:01:43But we will take it into consideration
00:01:45and also let you know that we do have,
00:01:47I'm excited to share that we have somebody coming
00:01:50from the California Independent Service Operators,
00:01:54basically the grid folks out here.
00:01:56We're going to get a guy in to talk about a topic
00:01:59on a lot of people's minds,
00:02:00which is whether the grid can withstand
00:02:04all of the electrification of vehicles that's coming
00:02:07and some of the cool things
00:02:08that the California grid has been doing.
00:02:10So it's not quite the EPA.
00:02:11It's actually not even close.
00:02:12But we'll take it into consideration.
00:02:14Thank you for your question, Brian.
00:02:16Let's make a plea now.
00:02:17If you're from the EPA and listening,
00:02:19contact us, Motortrend at Motortrend.com,
00:02:22or my Instagram, Ed's Instagram,
00:02:24if you have any other questions
00:02:25or just want to be on our show.
00:02:27We'd love to have him on.
00:02:28But let's talk about Sammy.
00:02:30Yes. So Sam, long time, he's a former journalist.
00:02:34Engineer.
00:02:35Engineer, mechanical engineer from Kettering University.
00:02:39A lot of time on both sides, on all sides,
00:02:42and not just working at Ford and General Motors
00:02:45on the PR side, working on the supplier side.
00:02:48Did a stint as a journalist
00:02:50and now works for a consultancy
00:02:53that really covers the future of energy usage,
00:02:58inclusive of transportation.
00:03:00It's called Guidehouse Insights.
00:03:01Guidehouse Insights.
00:03:02Sam is the principal for basically transportation.
00:03:06Principal analyst.
00:03:07And he's got a lot of stuff.
00:03:09In fact, we ran out of time before we ran out of topics.
00:03:12But as you'll hear, some really unique insights
00:03:15into where this is all going.
00:03:16And just to back up what Ed said,
00:03:17it wasn't that we ran out of time before we ran out of topics.
00:03:20We got to, like, three of 5,000 things
00:03:23we could have asked him about.
00:03:24And we're definitely having him back.
00:03:26But before we have him back, here is Sam Abil-Samad.
00:03:29All right. We're sitting here with Sam Abil-Samad,
00:03:32an analyst for Guidehouse Insights.
00:03:35And you are principal analyst, is the job title?
00:03:39That's what they tell me, yeah.
00:03:40Which sounds very highfalutin.
00:03:42But you and I used to work together back in 2007?
00:03:46Yeah. I mean, you were at Autoblog for a little while.
00:03:49But before that, you and I were kind of on opposite sides.
00:03:52You were at Jalopnik. I was at Autoblog.
00:03:55That's true. And there was some weird...
00:03:57Actually, real early history of the car interwebs,
00:04:01it was great. We liked each other until Spinelli retired.
00:04:04And then it got very stupidly familiar.
00:04:06There were some other editor-in-chief at Jalopnik,
00:04:09and things got weird.
00:04:10It got really weird.
00:04:11But then I left promptly and went to Autoblog.
00:04:13It was much more fun.
00:04:14But now you work as an analyst,
00:04:16but you've had a lot of experience on both sides
00:04:19of sort of new digital automotive media,
00:04:23and then you did some PR work for Ford and GM.
00:04:27Oh, yeah. I've heard about that.
00:04:29And now you're...
00:04:31I had to do my stint on the dark side
00:04:33just to learn how the sausage was made.
00:04:34I mean, Angus, who hired the both of us,
00:04:37he did Ford PR, and he always told me,
00:04:40like, man, if you really want to know the automotive industry,
00:04:43go work for PR.
00:04:44Right.
00:04:45But now you're kind of leading the charge
00:04:48on covering a lot of the new transition to electrification.
00:04:52Mm-hmm.
00:04:53Is that correct?
00:04:54And inclusive of...
00:04:55Actually, I would say software-defined vehicles
00:04:57is bigger than electrification, right?
00:04:59Yeah.
00:05:00The switch to digital car is going to be foundational,
00:05:04and it's the biggest sea change out there.
00:05:07I keep telling people...
00:05:09But why don't you... Can you speak on it?
00:05:11How do you contextualize what you do at GuideHouse
00:05:15for, like, the layperson,
00:05:17the person who's sort of casually interested in cars?
00:05:19We're at a cocktail party. It's your wife's friends.
00:05:22What do you do?
00:05:23So GuideHouse Insights is the market research arm
00:05:27of GuideHouse Consulting's
00:05:29Energy Sustainability Infrastructure Group.
00:05:31So GuideHouse Consulting's a huge global consulting firm.
00:05:35They're in a bunch of different areas.
00:05:37ES&I is part... We're part of that.
00:05:40We're a very small part of that,
00:05:42but we play an important role in the company.
00:05:45So GuideHouse works with companies,
00:05:48governments, with investors,
00:05:50all kinds of different people providing services.
00:05:53And then as Insights, we do market research.
00:05:57And so kind of on the consulting, the way it works,
00:06:00you know, kind of consulting works with clients
00:06:03on execution of plans.
00:06:06We work with them to help develop the strategy
00:06:09before they get to the execution stage.
00:06:11So this is what you should do.
00:06:13Yeah, we do market forecasting of emerging technologies.
00:06:16You know, I lead the transportation mobility team,
00:06:19but we also do things in built environment,
00:06:22DER, distributed energy resources,
00:06:25you know, all kinds of things.
00:06:27It mostly has some relevance
00:06:30to energy use and energy transformation.
00:06:34Okay.
00:06:35Which is why when I looked up GuideHouse
00:06:38I think you are...
00:06:39Some of the reports you've recently put out there,
00:06:42you're covering everything from electric buses
00:06:45to, like, battery swapping,
00:06:48but not for cars, but for, like, scooters.
00:06:50We've done for cars as well.
00:06:52So yeah, kind of...
00:06:53Well, let's talk about that.
00:06:54Let's get into some how you see the world type conversation.
00:06:58So, you know, you talked to...
00:07:01Like, we were just at Pebble Beach,
00:07:05and I spent a lot of time at the fire pits at Spanish Bay,
00:07:08smoking cigars and talking shop.
00:07:10And, you know, really nice guy, and he's like,
00:07:13EVs, how long is the battery going to last?
00:07:16And I'm like, well, as far as I figure, indefinitely,
00:07:19but, you know, life of the vehicle.
00:07:21He's like, I thought you had to, like,
00:07:23it was $10,000 every year, you know, or whatever.
00:07:26Whatever the misinformation is.
00:07:28I'm sorry, who is this knucklehead you're talking to?
00:07:30Really nice guy.
00:07:33It doesn't mean he's not misinformed.
00:07:34He owns Bad Boy Bail Bonds.
00:07:36Okay, let me rephrase Johnny's question
00:07:39into one that we asked Rivi and CEO RJ Scarridge.
00:07:43Are EVs, in your mind, inevitable?
00:07:47For the average consumer?
00:07:54Absolutely.
00:07:55Yeah.
00:07:56You know, to what Johnny was saying, you know,
00:07:59battery lifespan, you know, I think most people
00:08:03have a misconception about how long batteries
00:08:06are going to last in a vehicle.
00:08:08Because even though there are similarities
00:08:10in the technology, in terms of chemistry and stuff,
00:08:13between the batteries in that laptop or phone
00:08:17and what's in an EV, there's also some
00:08:20fundamental architectural differences.
00:08:23And our devices that we carry around,
00:08:25because they have to be extremely optimized
00:08:27for weight and size, the batteries basically
00:08:30have no thermal management system.
00:08:32And what tends to happen, you know,
00:08:34if you've picked up your laptop or your phone
00:08:36after it's been charging a while,
00:08:37usually feels a little warm.
00:08:39And heat, you know, excess heat and batteries,
00:08:42very bad mix.
00:08:44That's one of the key things that causes
00:08:46batteries to start to degrade.
00:08:47And that's why, you know, usually your phone,
00:08:49after two, three, four years tops,
00:08:51same with your laptop, the battery won't hold a charge
00:08:54the same way it did when you took it out of the box.
00:08:56Mine's three months.
00:08:57But it's also why, you know, you shouldn't, you know,
00:09:01it sucks if you don't have a home charger,
00:09:03but you don't want to constantly be charging
00:09:05to 100%, because as you fill up everything,
00:09:08it gets hotter and you start to...
00:09:10That's when the bad stuff happens.
00:09:12Yeah, and if you can charge to like 75% or whatever,
00:09:14it's like much better for the long term of the battery.
00:09:17Yeah, and an EV, you know, you've got
00:09:19a much, much larger battery.
00:09:21And automakers, with one very notable exception,
00:09:25have been very careful about making sure
00:09:28that they can manage the temperature of the battery
00:09:32to try to prevent it from overheating
00:09:34or getting too cold for that matter.
00:09:36And so what we have found, even though early on,
00:09:40you know, if you go back to 2009, 2010,
00:09:43there was a lot of concern that batteries
00:09:45might last, I don't know, six, eight years.
00:09:47What we're actually finding is the degradation
00:09:50of a lot of these EVs, even after a decade of use,
00:09:55is pretty minimal, like less than 10% loss of capacity.
00:09:59Right, there was a report with Model S,
00:10:01it was like 90, on average, it was 92%
00:10:03of the capacity was there after a decade.
00:10:05Right.
00:10:06Which is, you know, pretty good.
00:10:08Yeah, we'd be hearing about it, right?
00:10:10I mean, Tesla Model S came out in 2012 as a 2013 model,
00:10:13so we are over 10 years time.
00:10:15And if we were seeing batteries fail,
00:10:17like at any kind of measurable...
00:10:19Well, you'd hear about it.
00:10:20You'd hear about it.
00:10:21It would be news, right?
00:10:22Yeah.
00:10:23Interesting you went immediately
00:10:24to the thermal management piece.
00:10:26Who is the one notable exception?
00:10:28The Nissan LEAF.
00:10:29Right, yeah, yeah.
00:10:30Because Nissan was targeting a much lower price point
00:10:32than what Tesla did when they launched.
00:10:34Right.
00:10:35And so the LEAF has an air-cooled battery.
00:10:37And especially the first few years,
00:10:39they've improved the air-cooling system,
00:10:41but the first few years of LEAFs,
00:10:43if you pick up one of those now,
00:10:45you can get them really cheap,
00:10:46because their capacity is reduced so much
00:10:49that you might get 30, 35 miles of range out of it,
00:10:52if you're lucky.
00:10:53Let me go back.
00:10:54Because you said absolutely EVs are inevitable,
00:10:57and you immediately went into thermal management.
00:10:59But can you, in a kind of lightning-round manner,
00:11:04address some of the major concerns
00:11:06that people have?
00:11:08Because I'll be honest.
00:11:09Yes, we are...
00:11:10I literally drove back from Pebble Beach yesterday
00:11:13in a Ford F-150 Lightning, which I love.
00:11:16I love in the city,
00:11:17but one of my reasons for driving it up there
00:11:20was Ford CEO Jim Farley last year
00:11:23did a road trip with his son.
00:11:25And famously, his son was razzing him
00:11:28because the charging experience was so terrible.
00:11:30This was pre-NACS,
00:11:32pre-Tesla superchargers opening up to Ford.
00:11:34So I took the truck up with an NACS adapter,
00:11:37with the intention of at least replicating part of the trip.
00:11:40And long story short, it sucked.
00:11:42We still had problems.
00:11:44Really?
00:11:45Oh, yeah.
00:11:47We charged it to the Harris Ranch Tesla supercharger station.
00:11:50It was fine.
00:11:51It worked.
00:11:52We pulled up.
00:11:53We were the only non-Tesla there.
00:11:56I didn't get...
00:11:57I mean, I think my peak charge speed,
00:11:59I think it was like 90 kilowatt.
00:12:00I think it went to like 120 when I started,
00:12:02which was fine.
00:12:03But then most of the time,
00:12:04it was 91 kilowatt charging rate,
00:12:07which is not great.
00:12:09But leaving Monterey yesterday was horrible.
00:12:14Well, there's so little infrastructure in Monterey.
00:12:16That Electrify America charging station at the Safeway?
00:12:20Oh, yeah.
00:12:21Four stations, only one working.
00:12:23That should be in a museum of bad energy.
00:12:25Yeah, but there's no other place to go.
00:12:27And I actually visited some of the local Tesla places.
00:12:29None of them are open to NACS yet, right?
00:12:32Let me ask you a question.
00:12:33Does the Ford tell you which chargers you can use?
00:12:36That's another...
00:12:37It does, kind of, but you're not quite as...
00:12:42You're just like, do I risk it?
00:12:44It shows me that it's there,
00:12:45but I don't know whether it'll take it.
00:12:46And then all the guys said, download PlugShare.
00:12:48So I have the PlugShare app.
00:12:49So I'm like cross-referencing.
00:12:50And then I got Google Maps
00:12:51because I don't really trust the Ford navigation.
00:12:53Wow.
00:12:54So you just don't like the Ford.
00:12:56Because I did that similar-ish,
00:12:57went up to San Luis Obispo.
00:12:59Rivian, the native Nav tells you exactly
00:13:03which ones you can use.
00:13:04It's a little tricky.
00:13:05Well, Rivian's got...
00:13:06They bought a better route planner.
00:13:08Yes.
00:13:09And they've integrated that.
00:13:10So that helps a lot.
00:13:11Yeah.
00:13:12But I'm now...
00:13:13Because I've been pro-lightning as an in-town car.
00:13:18Road tripping, it wasn't bad.
00:13:19They actually got it better as we progressed.
00:13:21But there's...
00:13:22I know there's...
00:13:23And this is First World California,
00:13:25earliest of the early adopters
00:13:27and arguably the best infrastructure in the country.
00:13:30And we still have challenges on road trips
00:13:32between, you know, major population centers.
00:13:36How do you tell...
00:13:37What do you tell people who are deeply skeptical?
00:13:41As I'm sure you guys do, you know,
00:13:44based on what we do,
00:13:45we had a lot of questions about what car should I buy.
00:13:48And the first thing I always do when I get that question
00:13:51is I ask people,
00:13:52what are you going to use it for?
00:13:54Where do you live?
00:13:55How are you going to use the vehicle?
00:13:57And that's one of the keys, you know,
00:13:59especially for EVs,
00:14:00is understanding how people are going to use the vehicle.
00:14:04You know, if somebody is buying a truck
00:14:07to tow their horse trailer
00:14:09between here and Monterey, you know,
00:14:11every month or something, you know,
00:14:13or drive across country with a camper trailer,
00:14:15I say, don't buy a Lightning.
00:14:17It's not the right vehicle for you today.
00:14:20But if you look at the way most people use their vehicles,
00:14:24most drivers use their vehicles,
00:14:26somewhere between 80% and 90% of daily driving
00:14:29is less than 40 miles a day.
00:14:32And pretty much every EV on the market...
00:14:36The vast majority of EVs that are available for sale today
00:14:39give you well over 200, in most cases,
00:14:42300 or more miles of electric driving range,
00:14:45which means that even in worst-case conditions,
00:14:48if you live in Minnesota in the wintertime,
00:14:51you know, where in wintertime,
00:14:53you know, because you're running heaters and things like that,
00:14:56you're going to lose range.
00:14:58You still have plenty of range
00:15:00for what most people actually use,
00:15:02not what they think they're going to use,
00:15:05but what they actually use.
00:15:07And if people actually spent more time thinking about
00:15:10how do I really use my car or my truck or my SUV,
00:15:14they would come to the realization that, yeah,
00:15:17I can actually get away with a lot less
00:15:19than what I thought I needed.
00:15:21Yes, we've come to that conclusion too.
00:15:24Johnny likes to tell the story how, you know,
00:15:26the first time you get an EV, you're charging it every night.
00:15:29No, every minute.
00:15:31And then it's like once a week.
00:15:33What Tesla engineers told us was like, you know,
00:15:35the first week, this was back in 2013,
00:15:37first week of Tesla ownership, you just drove to chargers.
00:15:40That's all they did, just drove to chargers.
00:15:42Yeah, you're always looking for opportunistic charging.
00:15:44Had to be at 100%. Had to be at 100%.
00:15:46And then second week, you just plugged in every night
00:15:48when you got home.
00:15:50And then by the third week, it's like you plugged in
00:15:52when the battery was low.
00:15:54As an example, a few weeks ago,
00:15:56my wife and I were on vacation in Sonoma.
00:15:58And when you drive a couple of miles west of Santa Rosa,
00:16:01you get a couple of miles west of the 101
00:16:03in Northern California, there's no cell service
00:16:06and there's no charging infrastructure at all.
00:16:08And we were driving an EV,
00:16:10and we stopped off at a station in Santa Rosa
00:16:14before we headed west towards the coast.
00:16:17And I topped off the EV,
00:16:19and I did not plug it in again for another five days,
00:16:22even though we were driving all over the place around the area.
00:16:25But you had a big battery, big range, EQS.
00:16:27Well, it was a 300-mile range on that vehicle.
00:16:30It's a big range.
00:16:32And even when I finally did plug it in after five days,
00:16:35I still had 35% state of charge in that thing.
00:16:39So I think people vastly overestimate
00:16:42what they actually need.
00:16:44But one other thing to what you're talking about
00:16:46with superchargers on your trip back from Monterey,
00:16:51with some of the charging infrastructure,
00:16:53even though California's got the most charging infrastructure
00:16:55of anywhere in the country,
00:16:57in some ways, it's kind of analogous
00:16:59to the way the wireless cell phone networks developed
00:17:03in the late 90s and early 2000s.
00:17:06The U.S. was the first to deploy this stuff,
00:17:09and we had a lot of analog charging networks.
00:17:12Plus, we also had a very robust landline network in those days.
00:17:16But you go to a lot of other parts of the world
00:17:18that came along a few years later.
00:17:20Like Africa.
00:17:21Yeah, and other regions.
00:17:24And when they finally started deploying,
00:17:27they skipped right over that first generation
00:17:29and went to digital wireless networks.
00:17:33Here, a lot of it, you'll find a lot of,
00:17:36for example, a lot of the early supercharger stations
00:17:38in California are still the older version 2 stations,
00:17:41which are not going to support the non-Tesla EVs.
00:17:46And I think that's probably what you were finding.
00:17:49And so a lot of that older infrastructure
00:17:52is going to need to be upgraded,
00:17:54along with the expansion that we're doing.
00:17:56Isn't it also that, because I think I'm,
00:17:59I've been thinking about my own journey,
00:18:01and I'm definitely not part of the early adopter phase personally.
00:18:04Because if I was, I would have already owned an EV
00:18:07in that sort of 2012 to 2018, 2019 time frame, right?
00:18:12And I think that first wave of early adopters,
00:18:15they were more patient, they were more willing to deal
00:18:18with some of the frustrations about finding a charger
00:18:21or some of the, or if you're a Tesla person,
00:18:23you actually didn't have a lot of that
00:18:25because their supercharger network was so good.
00:18:28Now that I'm part of this second wave,
00:18:31which is the bigger part of the curve, right?
00:18:33The adoption curve hopefully is going to be like this
00:18:35and everybody is, all of these people say,
00:18:37eh, let me try this EV.
00:18:39I think, I know I'm less accepting of it.
00:18:42I kept thinking as I was driving down like,
00:18:44man, we'd be home by now if I had a gas vehicle
00:18:46because I would have just filled it up
00:18:48and it would have been, I don't have to make,
00:18:50I essentially made three stops,
00:18:51charged it up to 80% before leaving
00:18:53and then I made two quick stops on the way back
00:18:55per the direction of the Ford navigation.
00:18:59Now the last charging stop was fine.
00:19:00It was 20 minutes at a 350, which was great.
00:19:03And I made it home with like 60 miles.
00:19:04So it was totally doable.
00:19:06But what do you tell people who are like,
00:19:10I don't know, I still, so I hear you.
00:19:12I have to probably consider a home charger.
00:19:16These things are too expensive.
00:19:18Are we going to see the,
00:19:19that's actually the biggest one, right?
00:19:20That the cars, EVs are only for the rich.
00:19:23Where are we, why aren't there more $35,000 EVs?
00:19:28Good question, good question.
00:19:31Clearly, in the early stages of this,
00:19:34the cost of manufacturing an EV
00:19:36is more than the cost of manufacturing
00:19:38an equivalent internal combustion vehicle.
00:19:40And I think what happened was a lot of automakers,
00:19:44they looked at that and said,
00:19:45instead of trying to focus on lower margin segments,
00:19:50we're going to produce higher margin,
00:19:53more expensive vehicles where we can
00:19:56either at least break even, if not,
00:19:58maybe make a profit on some of these vehicles.
00:20:01And those customers that are buying those,
00:20:03they're more likely to go for something new.
00:20:07They're more likely to be early adopters.
00:20:10They're also going to be more likely
00:20:11to have other vehicles in their household
00:20:14that they can utilize.
00:20:15And what we ended up with was too many companies
00:20:18targeting the premium segments more so
00:20:21than there was demand for those vehicles.
00:20:23And so you end up with $90,000 Lightnings and Silverados
00:20:27and a lot of other stuff.
00:20:29And it saturated that market.
00:20:33And only then did they start looking,
00:20:36okay, now we need to do more affordable EVs
00:20:40because they hadn't yet figured out
00:20:42how to make those more affordable EVs
00:20:45in a way that they could actually make money on it
00:20:48to be profitable.
00:20:49The battery costs are continuing to decline.
00:20:53They're figuring out new manufacturing methods
00:20:56for the vehicle structure itself to take cost out.
00:21:01They're taking cost out of the electrical
00:21:04and electronic architecture of the vehicles
00:21:07and doing other things to reduce
00:21:10the bill of materials cost of the vehicle
00:21:13so that they can start to offer
00:21:15these more affordable vehicles
00:21:17at price points that average consumers will buy.
00:21:22And hopefully we'll see those.
00:21:24I think we're going to start seeing more of those
00:21:26coming to market over the next couple of years in particular.
00:21:29I mean, we've got stuff like the Kia EV3, EV4.
00:21:32I'm sure there'll be Hyundai equivalents.
00:21:33Ford has their Skunk Works program here in California
00:21:37trying to develop something in that area.
00:21:39And I think we'll finally start to see that.
00:21:42But like, okay, so, you know,
00:21:44and it was a bit dorky looking perhaps,
00:21:47but GM did have the Bolt for a long time.
00:21:50And that was a low price point.
00:21:52I mean, after the $7,500,
00:21:54you were in the 20s for a while.
00:21:56That never took off.
00:21:58What was the, why not?
00:22:00Well, the challenge with the Bolt,
00:22:02I mean, I love the Bolt.
00:22:04I think it was a fantastic car.
00:22:07A decade ago.
00:22:09It arrived in the marketplace in a form factor
00:22:13that the timing was wrong.
00:22:16If you had launched a car like the Bolt in 2010, 2011,
00:22:20which unfortunately at that point,
00:22:22the technology wasn't at a point where you could have that car
00:22:25at that 250 plus mile range in that timeframe.
00:22:30But by the time it arrived,
00:22:33the overall market was well on its way
00:22:35to abandoning small cars and going to smaller,
00:22:39you know, small, midsize crossovers.
00:22:41And if the Bolt had arrived, you know,
00:22:44if they'd launched the, even if they'd launched the EUV first,
00:22:47I think it would have done a lot better,
00:22:49but something more crossover like,
00:22:51I think would have done a lot better.
00:22:53It just had that dork look, you know,
00:22:55it just had that like, I'm driving a penalty box type look,
00:22:58even though it was a fantastic car
00:23:00and it was great to drive for the time,
00:23:02had like crazy mileage.
00:23:04260 for like, what was it?
00:23:06It was like 35,000.
00:23:08And now used their 17, $18,000.
00:23:11The last year and a half it was on sale.
00:23:14The base MSRP was like 26,000 and change,
00:23:18which is, you know, yeah, it's unreasonable.
00:23:21And GM's not making a dime on those.
00:23:23Probably not.
00:23:24And I think that's why they discontinued it
00:23:26because the technology was...
00:23:28Yeah, the technology in there was older.
00:23:31It was more expensive than what they're producing now.
00:23:34I saw a difference between the Bolt motor
00:23:38and the Ultium motor.
00:23:40And it was like, you know, the amount of like man hours
00:23:43on the copper windings in the Bolt motor was insane
00:23:47versus the much simplified, much more efficient,
00:23:50much more powerful, oil-cooled Ultium motor.
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00:24:20Let's get a little spicy.
00:24:24So I want to move into SDV in a little bit,
00:24:27but before that, do you spend much time
00:24:29like evaluating or analyzing Tesla?
00:24:32Yeah, I mean, it's part of the larger market
00:24:35that we're looking at.
00:24:36You know, we look at, you know, what Tesla is doing
00:24:39in the context of the larger market,
00:24:41both in terms of some of the vehicle technologies,
00:24:44you know, batteries, what types of batteries they're using,
00:24:47you know, some of the vehicle structure
00:24:49and looking at overall vehicle cost,
00:24:51propulsion technologies, electrical,
00:24:54electronic architecture, SDV, you know,
00:24:56software, as you mentioned.
00:24:58But also, you know, what they've done
00:25:00on the charging infrastructure side.
00:25:02And, you know, in addition to EVs,
00:25:03I also cover ADAS and automated driving systems,
00:25:07you know, so I pay very close attention
00:25:09to what they're doing in that spectrum as well.
00:25:11Okay, so let's start at some of the earlier things you said.
00:25:13Specifically, let's talk about Cybertruck.
00:25:16So I don't know if you caught,
00:25:17there's this guy, Whistle and Diesel, out there
00:25:19who just like literally destroyed,
00:25:21he did a bunch of sort of very expensive.
00:25:24Stupid.
00:25:25Destructive testing of a Cybertruck
00:25:28alongside an F-150 Lightning,
00:25:30including he drove the Cybertruck down
00:25:32a bunch of like concrete pipes and bashed the back end
00:25:36and then in a highly.
00:25:39Viral.
00:25:40Viral piece of footage, you could see
00:25:42he rips the whole back end of the truck off,
00:25:44which I assume is the mega casting
00:25:46from the back end, right?
00:25:47Yeah.
00:25:48So.
00:25:49Giga.
00:25:50A giga casting.
00:25:51Mega.
00:25:52Mega, whatever.
00:25:53Large scale casting.
00:25:54Large scale casting.
00:25:55So thoughts on that,
00:25:56on whatever failure that does or does not represent,
00:25:59because there's some comparisons like,
00:26:00well that's aluminum versus steel,
00:26:02that's a fundamentally sort of a body on frame
00:26:06Lightning traditional pickup truck manufacturing
00:26:08versus this new age manufacturing involving mega casting
00:26:12and then just overall thoughts on Cybertruck.
00:26:15Yeah.
00:26:16So, you know, in terms of what they did,
00:26:18you know, you mentioned, you know,
00:26:19that it went over these steel or these concrete culverts
00:26:22and one of, before that they ripped the bumper off,
00:26:26you know, there was a segment where you could see
00:26:28where it was, as it was coming off there,
00:26:30it whacked that back end,
00:26:32that overhang on the rear end of the truck
00:26:35and almost certainly fractured that casting at that point
00:26:39and at least, at the very least, weakened it.
00:26:41So that by the time they got around to the next thing
00:26:43where he was trying to tow the Lightning off,
00:26:45Yeah, the Lightning got stuck
00:26:48because it didn't have enough ground clearance,
00:26:50it got grounded on those culverts
00:26:52and so he's trying to pull it off
00:26:54and, you know, because he almost certainly damaged that casting,
00:26:58it weakened it to the point where,
00:27:00trying to tow the Lightning,
00:27:02it just ripped the casting apart.
00:27:05One of the things, while that is not,
00:27:08does not necessarily tell,
00:27:10is not representative of how safe or structurally sound
00:27:15the Cybertruck design is,
00:27:18it does actually highlight something else
00:27:21that's very important.
00:27:22That some little pitcher can buy $200,000 worth of trucks,
00:27:25destroy them and make a profit on YouTube?
00:27:27There's that too, but also, you know,
00:27:30I think, and I think one of the reasons
00:27:32why Tesla abandoned their $25,000 car program,
00:27:37a lot of what they were trying to do
00:27:40to get down to this low-cost point
00:27:42and what a lot of other automakers have been looking at
00:27:45is really trying to simplify
00:27:46the assembly process of the vehicle
00:27:48by reducing the number of parts
00:27:49instead of having, you know,
00:27:50hundreds or thousands of stamped pieces
00:27:52that you weld together or bond together,
00:27:54you know, reducing it down to a few smaller,
00:27:57a few large components
00:27:58doing a lot of integration with these mega castings,
00:28:01these large-scale castings.
00:28:02And that actually works really well
00:28:04in terms of reducing the assembly cost
00:28:07and simplifying the assembly.
00:28:08But the downside of it is that it becomes unrepairable.
00:28:13If you get into a crash, you know, with the stampings,
00:28:16you know, it's designed to deform in certain ways.
00:28:18There's things you can straighten out.
00:28:19There's parts you can take off and replace
00:28:22when you get into a crash.
00:28:23With these large-scale castings,
00:28:25they will fracture instead of bending.
00:28:28And that's what we saw with the Whistling Diesel truck.
00:28:32Because they're so large, they...
00:28:37Well, it's also the nature of a cast part
00:28:39versus, you know, versus a stamped or extruded part.
00:28:44So, you know, so the downside is, yes,
00:28:48you may get a vehicle that is cheaper to buy,
00:28:51but the flip side is insurance companies
00:28:53are looking at this and,
00:28:54yeah, if this gets into a crash, we can't fix it.
00:28:57And so we total it.
00:28:58And so what you end up with
00:29:00is much higher insurance premiums.
00:29:02And we're seeing this with Cybertrucks.
00:29:03A lot of insurers are just refusing to insure them
00:29:06because of repairability concerns.
00:29:08And it's actually true also of some other Tesla models
00:29:11where it's very hard to insure them
00:29:13or the insurance premiums are very high.
00:29:15And so manufacturers are going to have to take
00:29:18a very close look at how they're taking cost out,
00:29:21you know, because you still have to consider
00:29:23total cost of ownership of the vehicle.
00:29:25Right. And I think what's...
00:29:26And, you know, it's the material that it's made of, too, right?
00:29:29Which is, I think it's unfortunate.
00:29:31And I'm not trying to defend, you know, Tesla in any way.
00:29:34But this puts them, the virality of this video
00:29:38puts them at a huge disadvantage
00:29:40because a whole bunch of people have seen it.
00:29:42It's all going to talk about it.
00:29:43Nothing on the internet is ever forgotten.
00:29:46But that's fundamentally an unfair test.
00:29:49No manufacturer has put their vehicle
00:29:51through that kind of test.
00:29:53Now, it does speak fairly well
00:29:55of a traditional steel body-on-frame truck, right?
00:29:58You could drop it.
00:29:59They're designed to be extremely durable
00:30:02for all these various use cases.
00:30:04Right. I remember, because I'm a huge Toyota dork
00:30:08in terms of, like, Land Cruisers and Hilux trucks,
00:30:10you know, people ask, like, you know,
00:30:11Toyota used to sell a Hilux pickup truck in the U.S.
00:30:13It was just called the original, the OG Toyota truck.
00:30:15That was fundamentally the Hilux sold around the world.
00:30:17And then they branched off and they did Tacoma, right?
00:30:20And the rationale,
00:30:21apparently the internal corporate rationale is
00:30:23Hilux is meant for third-world and second-world countries
00:30:26and for the repairs to be done with a sledgehammer.
00:30:30Yeah.
00:30:31Tacoma, you could unbolt pieces.
00:30:33You go to a body shop.
00:30:34You go to a body shop.
00:30:35So it's different levels of durability
00:30:37based on, you know, right tool, right job.
00:30:41So then, that was great. Thank you.
00:30:44Then what are your overall thoughts
00:30:46on Cybertruck coming to market?
00:30:48Did you ever think it would...
00:30:49When you saw the reveal back in whatever it was, 2019?
00:30:522019, yeah.
00:30:53Did you ever think
00:30:54you would actually see one on the streets?
00:30:56Now that you do, what do you...
00:30:58And did you put a deposit down?
00:31:00I did not put a deposit down.
00:31:02You know, I looked at that thing.
00:31:04I mean, there's a reason
00:31:05why trucks are shaped the way they are.
00:31:07Because trucks are, you know,
00:31:09fundamentally utilitarian vehicles.
00:31:11And they've evolved over 100 years
00:31:14into this particular shape, you know,
00:31:16whether you're talking a Maverick or a Santa Cruz
00:31:19or a Super Duty or, you know, a Ram HD.
00:31:22They have a particular shape
00:31:24because that is the shape that works for the job
00:31:27that they are intended to do.
00:31:29The Cybertruck does not emulate that shape.
00:31:32And while it is...
00:31:34It can be very functional in a lot of ways
00:31:37for what a lot of truck buyers buy,
00:31:40it's not the right shape.
00:31:42You know, I mean, you can't reach over
00:31:44and grab stuff out of the bed.
00:31:46That seems to be, to me, the crazy part.
00:31:48Yeah.
00:31:49Like, as a pickup truck owner, I do a lot of that.
00:31:51Yeah.
00:31:52Most truck owners do.
00:31:54They put stuff in the bed.
00:31:55They want to grab stuff out of the bed.
00:31:57Even something as simple as, like,
00:31:58you know, the kid fell in the mud.
00:31:59You take the muddy clothes off.
00:32:00You throw them in the bed.
00:32:01You can hose it out.
00:32:02And now you have to climb as a rapidly approaching
00:32:0550-year-old, almost 50-year-old, you know.
00:32:07And now if I had a Cybertruck,
00:32:08I'd have to climb in and retrieve the mud.
00:32:10Let me challenge you, though.
00:32:11Because I'll tell you.
00:32:12Why?
00:32:13The full-size, the modern full-size pickup truck,
00:32:15none of you guys...
00:32:16Hang on.
00:32:17Your truck you can't
00:32:18because it's not a full-size pickup truck.
00:32:20Even on a full-size truck,
00:32:21you can quickly jump on the tire.
00:32:22Most people can jump on the tire
00:32:24and reach in and grab something small out.
00:32:26But you can't do that with a Cybertruck
00:32:28because it's half a wedge at you.
00:32:30No, but you're right, Ed.
00:32:31You know, in terms of, you know,
00:32:32full-size trucks have gotten so big
00:32:34and often so tall because a lot of them have,
00:32:37you know, off-road packages.
00:32:38Yeah.
00:32:39So it is more challenging.
00:32:40But nonetheless, you know,
00:32:41like, especially for commercial users,
00:32:43you know, they're often upfitting them
00:32:44with various racks and things like that.
00:32:46And, again, that's not something you can
00:32:48practically do with a Cybertruck.
00:32:50The other part of the Cybertruck that annoys me,
00:32:55I mean, you know, design, visual aesthetics
00:32:58is obviously a matter of personal taste.
00:33:00I don't like it.
00:33:01Some people do.
00:33:02Real quick, very interjective.
00:33:03What's great about the design is,
00:33:05name another vehicle released in the last decade or so
00:33:08that every single human on Earth
00:33:09has an opinion about one way or the other.
00:33:11Yeah.
00:33:12So it works that way.
00:33:13Yeah.
00:33:14It really works that way.
00:33:15It does work in that respect.
00:33:16But, you know, one of the things that, you know,
00:33:19as an analyst, you know, former engineer,
00:33:21you know, going back to the beginning of my career
00:33:23that I've always been really concerned about
00:33:25is safety.
00:33:26And, you know, while the Cybertruck may,
00:33:30it's unclear, actually,
00:33:31how good its occupant protection is
00:33:33because of the way it's built.
00:33:35You know, its ability to absorb energy in a crash
00:33:39is debatable.
00:33:40We don't really know yet
00:33:41because nobody's done any independent crash tests.
00:33:44They probably won't do any.
00:33:45Right.
00:33:46But, you know, the other part of that is,
00:33:49you know, if you look at safety across the board,
00:33:52you know, over the last decade,
00:33:54you know, we've had, we've actually reversed course
00:33:58in terms of the number of people dying on the roads.
00:34:00Almost all of that increase is not from vehicle occupants.
00:34:05Vehicle occupant deaths have gone down.
00:34:07It's pedestrians, cyclists, motorcyclists.
00:34:10And if you, when you take a close look at that Cybertruck,
00:34:14you know, you see these sharp edges,
00:34:16these sharp angles,
00:34:17especially, you know, the way they've done
00:34:18the stainless steel panels
00:34:19where they literally just slice them off.
00:34:21You go up and you don't even have to open the frunk
00:34:24and, you know, stick your hand in there
00:34:26to slice off your fingers.
00:34:27Just run your thumb along the edge
00:34:30of any of those stainless steel panels.
00:34:31Like the back of the truck is particularly sharp.
00:34:33Yes.
00:34:34You know, so, you know, that, you know,
00:34:36if you, when you have an impact
00:34:38between one of those vehicles
00:34:39and a pedestrian or a cyclist,
00:34:41the impact on the, the effect on the human
00:34:44is going to be far worse than almost any other vehicle.
00:34:47And remember, America, unlike Europe,
00:34:48we have no pedestrian safety standards whatsoever.
00:34:50Yes, which is why you'll never see that vehicle sold
00:34:53officially in Europe.
00:34:54But isn't the issue actually this,
00:34:56that's causing the rise in the pedestrian and cyclist deaths?
00:35:01This, if you're listening,
00:35:02Ed pulled a phone out of my pocket.
00:35:04Both, both the people not paying attention
00:35:06while driving.
00:35:07Ed's checking Instagram right now.
00:35:08Yeah, they're checking,
00:35:09you're checking your phone while you're driving
00:35:10and also the people walking through the,
00:35:12through the crosswalk like this and not paying attention.
00:35:15That is certainly a factor.
00:35:16It's, it's by no means the only factor.
00:35:18You know, the, I think the other factor
00:35:20is dramatically reduced visibility.
00:35:22You mentioned, you know,
00:35:23how big trucks have gotten so much bigger,
00:35:26but especially taller.
00:35:27Yeah.
00:35:28And, you know, you look at a lot of the newer generations
00:35:31of pickup trucks and full-size utilities.
00:35:33I was looking at an Escalade.
00:35:34They have a much taller hood.
00:35:35I was looking at an Escalade yesterday.
00:35:37I was like, that is so big.
00:35:39You know, it's, it's very easy.
00:35:40You know, like if you, you know,
00:35:42there's graphics out there showing, you know,
00:35:45the number of kids that standing, you know,
00:35:48from the front of one of these trucks,
00:35:50how far out they have to stand from that truck
00:35:53before you can see them from the driver's seat.
00:35:55So even if you're,
00:35:56even if you're not messing around with your phone,
00:35:58if you're just looking up,
00:35:59you can't see nearly as much out of these vehicles
00:36:02as you could in the past.
00:36:03Right.
00:36:04Right.
00:36:05Okay.
00:36:06Right.
00:36:07Switching gears.
00:36:08NACS.
00:36:09So before Ed got here.
00:36:10North American Charging Station.
00:36:11Yeah.
00:36:12The Tesla Charger.
00:36:13SAE J3400.
00:36:14Ooh.
00:36:15Nerd.
00:36:16Sam has done a little bit of spy work
00:36:18and he was saying that like some,
00:36:19some upcoming Kia Hyundai vehicles
00:36:21might have NACS very soon.
00:36:23And I did a little spy work and Lucid saying
00:36:26maybe there may be the first non-Tesla vehicle
00:36:29to have NACS.
00:36:30Is it a good idea to switch to NACS right now?
00:36:33And I'm asking that because like Elon Musk famously
00:36:36just fired the entire department and like,
00:36:39you know, it might be a better technology
00:36:42or whatever that's debatable.
00:36:43But like what if he just shuts it down?
00:36:45Like, like is this a person you want to pin your,
00:36:48your, you know, automakers thinking four-year chunks?
00:36:51Like do you want to, you know,
00:36:53stick these charging ports on where it might,
00:36:55who knows what's going to happen.
00:36:57So I think there's two parts to that question.
00:36:59The first part, you know,
00:37:01with respect to, to Elon and firing the Supercharger team,
00:37:06is do you want to pin your hopes
00:37:08on the Tesla Supercharger network?
00:37:10That I would say to your question,
00:37:13you probably don't want to be too dependent on that.
00:37:16Especially because, you know, look,
00:37:18Elon has like become the,
00:37:20the spokeshole for the anti-EV side.
00:37:23It's a crazy thing in the world.
00:37:24But why, but why, what were you saying about why,
00:37:26why wouldn't you want to pin it on the Supercharger?
00:37:28Which, which seems quite robust.
00:37:29Well, the, the, the network is quite robust today,
00:37:31but you know, when you,
00:37:33when you look at a lot of the problems
00:37:35that we have with chargers,
00:37:36a lot of it comes down to software issues.
00:37:39Because unlike the old days,
00:37:40when you pull up to a gas pump, you know,
00:37:43the gas pump doesn't care what the car is.
00:37:45As long as the nozzle fits in the hole,
00:37:47you squeeze and, you know,
00:37:49the fuel will flow at whatever rate, you know,
00:37:51and it doesn't, it doesn't matter.
00:37:53There's no communication between the vehicle
00:37:55and the gas pump.
00:37:56With a charger, the charger has to talk to the vehicle
00:37:58and they're constantly talking back and forth to each other.
00:38:00Vehicle sharing, okay, what's my current state of charge?
00:38:02How much charge can I accept right now?
00:38:04And, you know,
00:38:05so it's all moderating all of that in real time.
00:38:07And, and, and that's, a lot of that is for safety.
00:38:10Yes, absolutely.
00:38:11Because people say,
00:38:12why can't it just be like you plug it into a wall
00:38:14and you get 110?
00:38:15You probably saw what happened in Mexico last week.
00:38:17Some, some guy plugged in his Tesla directly to the grid.
00:38:21Oh yeah, onto a 440, yeah, yeah.
00:38:23So, you know, for, for safety and durability.
00:38:28So you're saying illegal charging at twice the limit is bad?
00:38:31Yes.
00:38:32So, so because, because of the fact that the charger
00:38:35and the vehicle have to talk to each other,
00:38:37there's a lot of software handshaking that has to go on.
00:38:40And this is, even though Tesla's chargers tend to be more reliable,
00:38:44you know, Tesla is, up until now,
00:38:46has been in a similar position to Apple,
00:38:48where Apple makes all their hardware,
00:38:50they make all their software.
00:38:51And, you know, relative to Android or Windows, you know,
00:38:55they don't have to worry about their software
00:38:57working on anybody else's hardware.
00:38:58They can, they can optimize it.
00:39:00And they've got a limited set of hardware,
00:39:02a limited set of software,
00:39:03and it all works smoothly together.
00:39:05Microsoft or Google with Windows and Android, you know,
00:39:09they have to make their stuff work with thousands of different devices,
00:39:12millions of different devices with CPUs and memory chips
00:39:16and everything else from all kinds of different companies.
00:39:18The same thing is true on the CCS side of the business.
00:39:21As Tesla opens up their network to non-Tesla vehicles,
00:39:24now they have to make sure that the software in their chargers
00:39:28works with the software in the vehicle,
00:39:31with Ford and Rivian and General Motors and Hyundai and Kia and everybody else.
00:39:34But the onus is on Tesla for that?
00:39:36Or is it on the OEM bed switching?
00:39:38Well, it's on both. It's on both.
00:39:39Okay.
00:39:40You know, there has to be a cooperation there, you know,
00:39:42to test it, you know, to verify it.
00:39:45So, in other words, this is why, you know, Ford went first,
00:39:49because the Ford software on the Tesla end was done first.
00:39:52They didn't want to roll everything out.
00:39:54They had to, okay, the Ford stuff's out, it works,
00:39:56now we're going to program the Rivian end of the Tesla supercharger.
00:39:59And do the testing and verify that it all works smoothly and reliably.
00:40:02Right.
00:40:03You know, and then when you...
00:40:05But then they fired the whole team.
00:40:06Yeah.
00:40:07And so, and this is why, for example, GM has not rolled their stuff out yet,
00:40:10because they call Tesla and say, okay, we need to test this and verify this,
00:40:14and there's nobody there answering the phone.
00:40:16Yeah, I heard this story.
00:40:18I also heard that people in Germany were, like, having meetings,
00:40:21like, are we really doing this?
00:40:22Yeah.
00:40:23Like, are we really switching to NAX?
00:40:25But now let's look at the other side of the question,
00:40:29which is the port itself, the connector and the port.
00:40:32Right.
00:40:33That is really independent of working with Tesla and the supercharger network.
00:40:37Because it's an ISO standard.
00:40:38Right.
00:40:39And so, you know, now, you know, the connector design,
00:40:43the port design has been opened up.
00:40:46It was the SAE formed a working group.
00:40:49They incorporated that into a new standard, an industry standard,
00:40:52and there's lots of good reasons,
00:40:56whether the supercharger network is shut down tomorrow or not,
00:40:59to move forward with using that connector.
00:41:02It's a better user experience.
00:41:04Yeah, for sure.
00:41:05So the, what's it going to be called?
00:41:07Ionica?
00:41:08Iona.
00:41:09Iona, sorry.
00:41:10Great name.
00:41:11Iona, there's no reason for them not to roll out.
00:41:15Absolutely.
00:41:16Okay.
00:41:17And they've already said they will.
00:41:18Okay.
00:41:19They said they're doing both, right?
00:41:20Parallel?
00:41:21Yeah.
00:41:22Okay.
00:41:23Yeah.
00:41:24And, you know, it'll probably be a lot like what we've seen, you know,
00:41:25with Electrify America where, you know, they rolled out predominantly CCS,
00:41:28you know, but at every one of their locations,
00:41:30or almost every one of their locations, there's at least one Chateaumau port there as well.
00:41:34Yes.
00:41:35Sadly, charging a first-gen LEAF, but yes.
00:41:37Yeah.
00:41:38But, well, even the second-gen LEAF.
00:41:40Yeah.
00:41:41No.
00:41:42And maybe even the occasional Outlander plug-in hybrid.
00:41:45Yeah.
00:41:46Okay.
00:41:47So where is Iona?
00:41:48Where is Iona?
00:41:50So, you know, it was announced about a year ago, roughly a year ago,
00:41:55I think in March or April of this year,
00:41:58they officially got regulatory approval to form this joint venture, you know,
00:42:01because there's some antitrust concerns.
00:42:04But the joint venture was launched.
00:42:07The company is working on their first stations.
00:42:11They have said publicly that they expect to have their first stations operational
00:42:15by the end of this year, sometime this year.
00:42:18I would just say, like, again,
00:42:20I don't really know what Iona Station is going to look like,
00:42:23but I know what, like, Tesla stations look like,
00:42:25and I've seen them go in in, like, a weekend.
00:42:27Like, why aren't they – why not rush this?
00:42:30It's expensive.
00:42:32Well, they have a lot of money.
00:42:34It's like seven multibillion-dollar international corporations.
00:42:37BMW, GM, Honda, Hyundai, Kia, Mercedes-Benz, Delantis, and Toyota.
00:42:40Yeah.
00:42:41Toyota alone has more money than God.
00:42:43So, you know, as you said, you know, DC chargers are expensive.
00:42:47You know, depending on the power levels,
00:42:49they can range anywhere from $75,000 to $250,000 per charger.
00:42:52Each.
00:42:53Yeah.
00:42:54And you have to deal with the local Joes.
00:42:57Well, yeah, and therein lies the problem.
00:43:00You know, you have a DC charging station that, you know,
00:43:05has 10-, 12-, 20-, 350-kilowatt chargers.
00:43:09That's a lot of power that needs to go in there.
00:43:12So you've got to find sites that have that power level available,
00:43:17which is not trivial, and that's one of the things my company does.
00:43:20They work with charging providers.
00:43:22That's the consulting.
00:43:23The consulting side, yeah,
00:43:25because we do a lot of work with utilities too,
00:43:27and so we've got data on where the power is.
00:43:30But, you know, there's other pieces.
00:43:32Even, okay, now you've found a site with power.
00:43:35You know, you've got to negotiate with the site owner, you know,
00:43:38for a lease for the site.
00:43:40You've got to do permitting.
00:43:42You've got to do the engineering design.
00:43:44So it can't be a quick thing.
00:43:45Yeah.
00:43:46So, you know, the actual construction, yeah, that can go fairly quickly.
00:43:50It's all the other stuff that happens around that.
00:43:54And, you know, if you have a site that you want to use or need to use
00:43:58that doesn't have enough power and you need a substation upgrade,
00:44:02now you're talking really long times.
00:44:04And interestingly, you know, we were doing a project earlier this year,
00:44:09and from the research, one of the things we found out is that
00:44:13if you want a substation upgrade,
00:44:15right now charging stations are basically like third in line because,
00:44:20you know, during the pandemic,
00:44:22we had shortages of manufacturing transformers.
00:44:25Now they're manufacturing the transformers.
00:44:27But the priority, the biggest demand is, yeah,
00:44:33high-performance data centers.
00:44:35And then healthcare facilities are next.
00:44:37We're putting coal plants back online to power Google searches.
00:44:40Yeah.
00:44:41Which is quite idiotic.
00:44:42So it can take a while.
00:44:43So, you know,
00:44:44one of the things you're increasingly seeing is charging operators looking at
00:44:48battery-supported solutions.
00:44:49So they don't have to have as much continuous power that comes in.
00:44:52Sure.
00:44:53Have a big local energy storage system or battery-integrated chargers,
00:44:57like what a couple of different companies.
00:45:01Deere's got a subsidiary called Chrysle.
00:45:03There's Flow is doing some.
00:45:06Juul is doing these.
00:45:08So there's a few different solutions that are incorporating batteries to
00:45:12support it so that the batteries provide that peak power demand.
00:45:15Right.
00:45:16Okay.
00:45:17There's a lot there,
00:45:18and I'm conscious we're going to run out of time before we run out of
00:45:20topics to talk to you about.
00:45:21So I want to talk to you about STV.
00:45:22Okay.
00:45:23So you talked about Tesla.
00:45:26We talked about charging,
00:45:27Cybertruck in particular,
00:45:29but let's focus on software-defined vehicles.
00:45:32Tesla was the first to achieve a scale,
00:45:36like volume-selling vehicle,
00:45:38the Model S.
00:45:39Are they still the leader,
00:45:41do you think,
00:45:42in the software-defined vehicle space globally?
00:45:47Because I want to talk about charging.
00:45:48Yeah.
00:45:49I don't think so.
00:45:50I think others have caught up,
00:45:53not necessarily the legacy automakers.
00:45:55They're still having some struggles,
00:45:57but I think certainly a lot of the other startups,
00:46:00Rivian is,
00:46:01I would say they're probably on a par with Tesla in terms of that,
00:46:05because of their architecture,
00:46:07and a lot of the Chinese startups.
00:46:09And I think where the startups have an advantage is working from a
00:46:13greenfield.
00:46:14They don't have legacy architectures that they're trying to upgrade or
00:46:19replace and support.
00:46:20Right.
00:46:21We can save a little bit of money by using this Johnson Control air
00:46:23conditioner.
00:46:24Yeah.
00:46:25But like,
00:46:26well,
00:46:27it doesn't really talk to the…
00:46:28Well,
00:46:29they've got products in market that need to be supported.
00:46:31Right.
00:46:32And so it takes a lot of resources there to do that.
00:46:34So let me,
00:46:35just for the total layman,
00:46:36like why is a software-defined vehicle better for the average person
00:46:40than a hardware-defined vehicle?
00:46:42So,
00:46:43you know,
00:46:44my background,
00:46:45I started my career as an engineer.
00:46:46I spent 17 years working as an engineer,
00:46:48working largely on software and electronic control systems for vehicles,
00:46:52like anti-lock brakes,
00:46:54early stability control systems,
00:46:55traction control,
00:46:56brake by wire.
00:46:57And,
00:46:58you know,
00:46:59up until the last decade,
00:47:01you know,
00:47:02up until the Model S debuted,
00:47:04and even today for most vehicles,
00:47:06the way,
00:47:07you know,
00:47:08we've been putting software in cars for 50 years.
00:47:10This is not a new phenomenon.
00:47:11Right.
00:47:12But,
00:47:13you know,
00:47:14the way it was done is each time you developed a feature,
00:47:16you know,
00:47:17supplier would sell a feature to an automaker that,
00:47:19you know,
00:47:20you'd get a kit that has a bunch of sensors,
00:47:22a bunch of actuators,
00:47:23and an electronic control unit,
00:47:25an ECU with some embedded software.
00:47:27And that software was,
00:47:28because those ECUs were generally using,
00:47:31you know,
00:47:32the lowest power consuming,
00:47:34the lowest performing chips they could get away with for that particular feature,
00:47:38the software was very efficiently written specifically for that hardware.
00:47:44And it was not designed to be upgraded.
00:47:46So,
00:47:47when you had job one for a model program,
00:47:49you go back four or six weeks from there,
00:47:52and the software had to be done at that point,
00:47:54and the expectation was you put that software in that vehicle,
00:47:57it does not change for the next 10,
00:48:0015,
00:48:0120,
00:48:0230 years that that car is on the road.
00:48:03Right.
00:48:04You know,
00:48:05I've got a 35-year-old Miata in my garage,
00:48:06but the only electronic control in there is the engine management system,
00:48:10and it's still got the same software it had when that car rolled off the line in Japan in October of 1989.
00:48:16Right.
00:48:17For software,
00:48:18what Tesla did was they flipped that on its ear,
00:48:22and instead of having all these discrete ECUs,
00:48:25every time you add a feature,
00:48:26you add a new ECU with its own software.
00:48:29They said,
00:48:30okay,
00:48:31we're going to do fewer ECUs,
00:48:34more powerful compute in there,
00:48:36and we're going to make it,
00:48:37we're going to design it so you can update that software,
00:48:40and most importantly,
00:48:41update that software over the air using the cellular data connection,
00:48:45you know,
00:48:46originally 3G,
00:48:47then 4G,
00:48:48now a lot of OEMs are doing 5G,
00:48:50so that instead of when you want to make a software update,
00:48:52and in the past,
00:48:53there were some,
00:48:54there were software updates that were done to vehicles for compliance recalls usually.
00:48:57Right.
00:48:58You'd have to take that car into the dealer,
00:49:00and the dealer,
00:49:01the technician would plug in a tool.
00:49:03To a modem.
00:49:04Yeah,
00:49:05well,
00:49:06yeah,
00:49:07download it through a modem,
00:49:08you know,
00:49:09and plug in the diagnostic tool and reflash that one specific ECU with new software.
00:49:13Right.
00:49:14And now you can do that over the air just like you do your phone.
00:49:17And so the advantage,
00:49:18though,
00:49:19I think it was a generation ago,
00:49:217 series,
00:49:22they were,
00:49:23like,
00:49:24almost bragging.
00:49:25No,
00:49:26they do brag.
00:49:27They used to brag.
00:49:28We had over 100 ECUs,
00:49:29and it's like,
00:49:30well,
00:49:31you could get away with,
00:49:32like,
00:49:337 if you really wanted to.
00:49:34Yeah.
00:49:35Right.
00:49:36Yeah.
00:49:37But those ECUs were all running tiny,
00:49:38little,
00:49:39low-power microcontrollers.
00:49:40Right.
00:49:41Instead of Nvidia,
00:49:42Orins,
00:49:43and Qualcomm,
00:49:44and Snapdragon.
00:49:45And it's what I heard from the Bosch guys,
00:49:46which was that they were saying,
00:49:47you know,
00:49:48this is what I wanted.
00:49:49It used to be the suppliers,
00:49:51they were in the hardware game.
00:49:53So they're trying to sell you the hardware,
00:49:55and the software was free.
00:49:56And as he added,
00:49:57and it was crap.
00:49:58Yeah.
00:49:59But you're explaining it totally different.
00:50:01It was inherently limited by the hardware.
00:50:04Yes.
00:50:05I mean,
00:50:06just to give you a quick example,
00:50:08beginning of my career,
00:50:09early 90s,
00:50:10we were doing ABS on an Intel 80C196 microcontroller.
00:50:14So this was a derivative of an 8086.
00:50:18CPU.
00:50:19Your PC.
00:50:20Yeah.
00:50:21It had 12K,
00:50:2212 kilobytes of ROM.
00:50:24That's four times as much as the moon.
00:50:26Yeah.
00:50:27And 64 bytes,
00:50:28not kilobytes,
00:50:2964 bytes of RAM.
00:50:30Oh, wow.
00:50:31And so,
00:50:32you know,
00:50:33the code we were writing for that was all written
00:50:35in assembly language,
00:50:36because that's the only thing that would run
00:50:39with that little ROM and RAM.
00:50:41And,
00:50:42you know,
00:50:43instead of multiplies and divides in the algorithms,
00:50:46we did shift,
00:50:47shift left,
00:50:48shift right,
00:50:49because it was more efficient,
00:50:50took less code space,
00:50:51and it was run way faster.
00:50:53Today,
00:50:54you know,
00:50:55you're writing stuff in some cases in C,
00:50:57but in Rust and R,
00:50:58and all kinds of other modern languages.
00:51:00And the cost of ROM and RAM and compute has come
00:51:04down so much since those days.
00:51:06Right.
00:51:07You know,
00:51:08and,
00:51:09you know,
00:51:10on one particular program,
00:51:11you know,
00:51:12that was launching in 1984,
00:51:13we,
00:51:14you know,
00:51:15we had a limit,
00:51:16and we had to add this additional feature in that
00:51:18the,
00:51:19it was Opal,
00:51:20that wanted an electronic brake force distribution
00:51:23system.
00:51:24You know,
00:51:25we developed the first one of those,
00:51:27and we could not fit it into that 12K part.
00:51:29We,
00:51:30we spent weeks tweaking the code line by line,
00:51:33trying to reduce it down.
00:51:34We,
00:51:35we got within about 10 bytes,
00:51:36but we just couldn't get it within 12K.
00:51:38And so,
00:51:39we ultimately had to make the decision to go to
00:51:41the next part up,
00:51:42a 16K part,
00:51:43just to fit that in there.
00:51:44And that was the way we had to work in those
00:51:46days,
00:51:47because that's what was available.
00:51:48Right.
00:51:49Today,
00:51:50you've got these high performance SOCs,
00:51:51and,
00:51:52you know,
00:51:53you've got hundreds.
00:51:54Systems on a chip.
00:51:55Yeah.
00:51:56And you've got hundreds of million,
00:51:57you know,
00:51:58upwards of 100 million lines of code.
00:51:59And so,
00:52:00how many different,
00:52:01on a typical,
00:52:02let's say,
00:52:03hardware defined vehicle,
00:52:04how many different languages would be running at
00:52:06any one time?
00:52:07It could,
00:52:08it would be multiple.
00:52:09I mean,
00:52:10most of the stuff that we were running,
00:52:12you know,
00:52:13it could be some assembly language for the
00:52:15particular microcontroller.
00:52:16It could be Intel assembly.
00:52:17It could be a Motorola,
00:52:18or,
00:52:19you know,
00:52:20whatever.
00:52:21It depends on the chip you're running,
00:52:22but usually some assembly language.
00:52:23So,
00:52:24very low level machine language.
00:52:25You know,
00:52:26and then some stuff,
00:52:27you know,
00:52:28some things like some of the engine management
00:52:30systems,
00:52:31things like that,
00:52:32might be written in C.
00:52:33You know,
00:52:34by the end of the 90s,
00:52:35we had transitioned to ARM chips,
00:52:37and we were writing in C,
00:52:38you know,
00:52:39and now they've gone way beyond that.
00:52:42So,
00:52:43part of the podcast,
00:52:44and this is great,
00:52:45I love this so much,
00:52:46but I want to pause and just update the audience,
00:52:48because you covered a ton very quickly.
00:52:50You're fundamentally talking about
00:52:52the old days,
00:52:53with all these different ECUs,
00:52:55that was domain.
00:52:56That's what we considered,
00:52:57like,
00:52:58domain control,
00:52:59right?
00:53:00Like,
00:53:01this is a ECU,
00:53:02some wires,
00:53:03actuators,
00:53:04for,
00:53:05call it the window switch,
00:53:06and then you'd have a separate domain for the
00:53:08windshield wiper,
00:53:09and a separate one,
00:53:10for the dome light.
00:53:11Seat recliner.
00:53:12Seat recliner,
00:53:13right?
00:53:14What we're moving towards,
00:53:15is zonal architecture,
00:53:17which is,
00:53:18instead of,
00:53:19each individual domain,
00:53:21each individual feature in the car,
00:53:22having an ECU,
00:53:23and a bunch of wires,
00:53:24and a bunch of actuators,
00:53:25now it's like,
00:53:26hey,
00:53:27all the stuff in the front of the car,
00:53:28all the stuff on the dash,
00:53:30that's a zone,
00:53:31or in cabin,
00:53:32and then the rear of the car,
00:53:33these could be handled by,
00:53:34not like one,
00:53:35per se,
00:53:36but a couple.
00:53:37Or one.
00:53:38Much more powerful,
00:53:39chips.
00:53:40And,
00:53:41because we asked this of RJ,
00:53:42you don't,
00:53:43actually,
00:53:44the end goal isn't,
00:53:45like,
00:53:46one supercomputer in the car,
00:53:47because then you actually have a problem of,
00:53:49you've got to run wires to every single device.
00:53:51Right.
00:53:52If you,
00:53:53if you have a few,
00:53:54you know,
00:53:55out at the edge of the vehicle,
00:53:56I mean,
00:53:57literally,
00:53:58physically,
00:53:59located near the edge,
00:54:00you know,
00:54:01so in the front corners,
00:54:02the back corner,
00:54:03you know,
00:54:04you can,
00:54:05have short runs of wire to all the various
00:54:07sensors,
00:54:08and actuators,
00:54:09and lights,
00:54:10and things like that.
00:54:11Physically close.
00:54:12Yeah,
00:54:13quadrant.
00:54:14You bust it up in a quadrant.
00:54:15Yeah,
00:54:16so you have,
00:54:17yeah,
00:54:18so you have,
00:54:19hence the zone,
00:54:20the zonal thing.
00:54:21So you have these zone controllers,
00:54:22that handle some basic functions,
00:54:23like power distribution,
00:54:24to all these devices,
00:54:25and also,
00:54:26getting the raw signals,
00:54:27from those,
00:54:28from those devices,
00:54:29and doing some,
00:54:30some basic signal processing,
00:54:31and then,
00:54:32feeding that into an Ethernet network,
00:54:33that is going,
00:54:34a simple Ethernet network,
00:54:35that's going back to the,
00:54:36central compute box,
00:54:37Rivian's a great example,
00:54:38that central compute box,
00:54:39has two main boards in it,
00:54:40one of them has two,
00:54:41NVIDIA Orins on it,
00:54:42that handles,
00:54:43basically,
00:54:44all the chassis control,
00:54:45so,
00:54:46your propulsion system,
00:54:47your ADAS,
00:54:48driving functions,
00:54:49steering,
00:54:50all that stuff,
00:54:51and then the second one,
00:54:52is running a Qualcomm,
00:54:53Snapdragon,
00:54:54cockpit processor,
00:54:55that's handling,
00:54:56your screens,
00:54:57all your,
00:54:58instrument clusters,
00:54:59Unreal Engine,
00:55:00the Unreal Engine,
00:55:01you know,
00:55:02a lot of the body components,
00:55:03you know,
00:55:04and then,
00:55:05you've got the battery,
00:55:06management system,
00:55:07which is sitting,
00:55:08on the pack,
00:55:09you know,
00:55:10which is,
00:55:11handling that stuff,
00:55:12so,
00:55:13you know,
00:55:14so yeah,
00:55:15you don't necessarily,
00:55:16want to just have one box,
00:55:17because as you said,
00:55:18the wiring,
00:55:19would get too complex,
00:55:20so you want,
00:55:21kind of the,
00:55:22you know,
00:55:23kind of a spider,
00:55:24spider web,
00:55:25sort of thing.
00:55:26And if you're listening at home,
00:55:27this is like,
00:55:28one of the,
00:55:29this is worth,
00:55:30five billion dollars,
00:55:31to Volkswagen too,
00:55:32yes,
00:55:33well,
00:55:34one of the,
00:55:35reasons why,
00:55:36software vehicles,
00:55:37are,
00:55:38A,
00:55:39called that,
00:55:40is because,
00:55:41they're defined by,
00:55:42the software that runs on them,
00:55:43and the fact that it can be,
00:55:44updated over time,
00:55:45and bring in new features,
00:55:46so,
00:55:47and I think again,
00:55:48we talk a lot about Tesla,
00:55:49how it was the first,
00:55:50things like adding,
00:55:51fart mode,
00:55:52later on,
00:55:53or adding the Christmas,
00:55:54the holiday,
00:55:55ability for the vehicles,
00:55:56to dance and things,
00:55:57that is fundamentally,
00:55:58impossible to do,
00:55:59in modern,
00:56:00in most modern vehicles today,
00:56:02because they aren't able to,
00:56:03you can't go tell the lights,
00:56:04hey,
00:56:05lights,
00:56:06you're now,
00:56:07we're gonna upload a program,
00:56:08which means you're gonna,
00:56:09alternate,
00:56:10the way you flash,
00:56:11to music,
00:56:12while the doors also,
00:56:13open up,
00:56:14and the inside of the,
00:56:15screens go,
00:56:16go crazy,
00:56:17and showcase,
00:56:18and play some holiday music,
00:56:19like,
00:56:20these are new features,
00:56:21that theoretically,
00:56:22make the products better,
00:56:23over time,
00:56:24that,
00:56:25software,
00:56:26being software defined,
00:56:27enables.
00:56:28Yeah,
00:56:29and you know,
00:56:30the old stuff,
00:56:31that was limited,
00:56:32by the hardware,
00:56:33the microcontrollers,
00:56:34that you're running,
00:56:35now,
00:56:36you've kind of,
00:56:37decoupled the software,
00:56:38from that underlying,
00:56:39electronic hardware,
00:56:40you've given it so much,
00:56:41capability,
00:56:42so much compute capability,
00:56:43that now,
00:56:44you can,
00:56:45and that,
00:56:46it is controlling,
00:56:47a whole bunch of things,
00:56:48now you can build,
00:56:49a bunch of applications,
00:56:50and in a lot of ways,
00:56:51that,
00:56:52software platform,
00:56:53is very analogous,
00:56:54to what you get,
00:56:55with something like,
00:56:56Android or iOS,
00:56:57where,
00:56:58you know,
00:56:59you're building the applications,
00:57:00the apps,
00:57:01on top of that,
00:57:02that,
00:57:03you've got an app,
00:57:04that does your,
00:57:05stability control,
00:57:06you've got an app,
00:57:07that manages your lights,
00:57:08you know,
00:57:09instead of having an ECU,
00:57:10that,
00:57:11you know,
00:57:12when you've got sequential,
00:57:13turn signals,
00:57:14you know,
00:57:15that's doing that,
00:57:16or,
00:57:17you know,
00:57:18like on a Rivian,
00:57:19when,
00:57:20when you plug it into charge,
00:57:21and you're,
00:57:22the light bar,
00:57:23across the front,
00:57:24is giving you an indication,
00:57:25of the state of charge,
00:57:26you can just,
00:57:27write an application,
00:57:28that is sitting on top of,
00:57:29the hardware,
00:57:30so now,
00:57:31you can change the hardware,
00:57:32independently of the software,
00:57:33and vice versa.
00:57:34Right,
00:57:35so like,
00:57:36another way to put it,
00:57:37is like,
00:57:38Apple,
00:57:39iOS,
00:57:40came out,
00:57:41TikTok wasn't invented,
00:57:42until seven years later,
00:57:43so in other words,
00:57:44the killer apps of the future,
00:57:45that are going to run on these systems,
00:57:46haven't been invented yet,
00:57:47but on,
00:57:48non-software defined vehicles,
00:57:49you can never get those apps,
00:57:50on board,
00:57:51it's like your old,
00:57:52Motorola phone.
00:57:53Right,
00:57:54you don't,
00:57:55you don't have the headroom,
00:57:56you don't have the capacity,
00:57:57to do it.
00:57:58One of my friends,
00:57:59are freaking out about,
00:58:00Akio Toyota,
00:58:01you know,
00:58:02he said,
00:58:03apparently said,
00:58:04I never saw the quote,
00:58:05but like,
00:58:06you know,
00:58:07instead of building one,
00:58:08EV,
00:58:09you could take all that lithium,
00:58:10and build,
00:58:11you know,
00:58:12nine billion,
00:58:13hybrids,
00:58:14and that's better,
00:58:15for the environment,
00:58:16we really haven't talked about,
00:58:17decarbonizing at all.
00:58:18No,
00:58:19it's four,
00:58:20it's one EV,
00:58:21can be four,
00:58:22plug-in hybrids.
00:58:23It was more than four.
00:58:24I think it's,
00:58:25one nine,
00:58:26one nine sixty.
00:58:27What do you think of that quote,
00:58:28as an analyst?
00:58:29Uh,
00:58:30I mean,
00:58:31the math,
00:58:32works.
00:58:33I mean,
00:58:34he,
00:58:35from a completely rational perspective,
00:58:36he's absolutely right.
00:58:37That,
00:58:38you know,
00:58:39I mean,
00:58:40a typical hybrid has a battery,
00:58:41that's somewhere between one,
00:58:42and one and a half kilowatt hours.
00:58:43Uh,
00:58:44a typical,
00:58:45you know,
00:58:46average,
00:58:47um,
00:58:48EV,
00:58:49in North America today,
00:58:50is somewhere,
00:58:51on average,
00:58:52it's about 90.
00:58:53Yeah,
00:58:54because we've got a lot,
00:58:55that are upwards of 100.
00:58:56So,
00:58:57you know,
00:58:58if you've got a 90 kilowatt hour battery pack,
00:58:59the materials that went into that battery pack,
00:59:00can build,
00:59:0190 hybrids,
00:59:02for,
00:59:03relative to one EV,
00:59:04or six plug-in hybrids.
00:59:05So,
00:59:06that math,
00:59:07works out.
00:59:08And actually,
00:59:09you know,
00:59:10if you put,
00:59:1190 hybrids on the road,
00:59:12if you put 90 Priuses,
00:59:13that get 50 miles per gallon,
00:59:14on the road,
00:59:15you are going to have,
00:59:16much more,
00:59:17environmental impact.
00:59:18So,
00:59:19you know,
00:59:20if you put,
00:59:2190 hybrids on the road,
00:59:22if you put 90 Priuses,
00:59:23that get 50 miles per gallon,
00:59:24on the road,
00:59:25you are going to have,
00:59:26much more,
00:59:27environmental impact,
00:59:28than you have,
00:59:29from a single BEV.
00:59:30Right.
00:59:31So,
00:59:32you know,
00:59:33today,
00:59:34you know,
00:59:35because of the cost of the materials,
00:59:36and,
00:59:37and the environmental impact of the materials,
00:59:38it actually does,
00:59:39make sense,
00:59:40for most people,
00:59:41right now,
00:59:42to go drive a hybrid,
00:59:43and in some cases,
00:59:44a plug-in hybrid,
00:59:45than it does,
00:59:46for them to buy a BEV.
00:59:47Long term,
00:59:48that equation,
00:59:49is going to flip,
00:59:50as the costs,
00:59:51continue to come down.
00:59:52And,
00:59:53as,
00:59:54as people get comfortable,
00:59:55as the charging infrastructure improves,
00:59:56and people get comfortable,
00:59:57with the idea of,
00:59:58driving a BEV,
00:59:59and,
01:00:00and figure out how,
01:00:01and when to charge it,
01:00:02uh,
01:00:03you know,
01:00:04then,
01:00:05that,
01:00:06that will,
01:00:07that transit,
01:00:08will eventually flip.
01:00:09And,
01:00:10that's,
01:00:11that's why,
01:00:12earlier on,
01:00:13I said,
01:00:14eventually,
01:00:15inevitably,
01:00:16BEVs will be the right solution.
01:00:17But isn't it also,
01:00:18a very convenient thing,
01:00:19for Akio,
01:00:20to say,
01:00:21given,
01:00:22given the weakness,
01:00:23the degree,
01:00:24No,
01:00:25no,
01:00:26you're absolutely right.
01:00:27Um,
01:00:28you know,
01:00:29it,
01:00:30it is convenient,
01:00:31but that doesn't mean,
01:00:32it's not true.
01:00:33Sure.
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01:01:11Yeah.
01:01:12In,
01:01:13in that vein,
01:01:14because I've asked this,
01:01:15of a couple other guests,
01:01:16and you're the perfect person,
01:01:17to,
01:01:18to ask,
01:01:19who are you concerned about,
01:01:20for the future,
01:01:21if you're not going to make it,
01:01:22right?
01:01:23I tell people all the time,
01:01:24right?
01:01:25This is a,
01:01:26this is,
01:01:27you have to be a fan.
01:01:28And if it's a Nissan,
01:01:29just blink twice.
01:01:30You're not,
01:01:31you're not a real,
01:01:32car fan,
01:01:33if you're not like,
01:01:34grabbing a bucket of popcorn,
01:01:35and watching how,
01:01:36crazy this stuff is going on,
01:01:37in China.
01:01:38All these legacy manufacturers,
01:01:39here,
01:01:40scrambling to try to,
01:01:41adjust their,
01:01:42their product lines.
01:01:43The Fister's,
01:01:44and Faraday Futures,
01:01:45of the world.
01:01:46Yeah,
01:01:47all these,
01:01:48all these wild startups,
01:01:49chasing Tesla,
01:01:50I love Mazda.
01:01:51I'm super concerned,
01:01:52about Mazda.
01:01:53Is there,
01:01:54are you,
01:01:55is there anyone else,
01:01:56on your list,
01:01:57that like,
01:01:58they're not going to be around,
01:01:59in five,
01:02:00five,
01:02:01ten years?
01:02:02There's,
01:02:03there's a,
01:02:04there's a bunch of brands,
01:02:05that I don't think,
01:02:06will be around.
01:02:07You know,
01:02:08Mazda,
01:02:09I think is,
01:02:10is one that is,
01:02:11very much at risk.
01:02:12Right.
01:02:13But,
01:02:14you know,
01:02:15a lot,
01:02:16a lot will,
01:02:17I didn't say dead.
01:02:18Well,
01:02:19a lot of brands,
01:02:20you know,
01:02:21especially if they're,
01:02:22trying to go it alone.
01:02:23I think what,
01:02:24what we're going to see,
01:02:25is a lot more,
01:02:26consolidation.
01:02:27Some of the brands,
01:02:28will go away.
01:02:29Some of them,
01:02:30may exist within,
01:02:31a larger group,
01:02:32you know,
01:02:33as,
01:02:34as a niche,
01:02:35within that group.
01:02:36But,
01:02:37they're going to,
01:02:38they're going to have to,
01:02:39depend a lot,
01:02:40on sharing,
01:02:41components,
01:02:42and resources,
01:02:43with other brands.
01:02:44So,
01:02:45what's stopping Mazda?
01:02:46I think certainly,
01:02:47you know,
01:02:48here in North America,
01:02:49certainly Chrysler,
01:02:50is.
01:02:51Well,
01:02:52Chrysler's down to a vehicle,
01:02:53at the moment.
01:02:54Right.
01:02:55And,
01:02:56you know,
01:02:57they've talked,
01:02:58you know,
01:02:59about expanding the,
01:03:00you know,
01:03:01adding a bunch of new models.
01:03:02And,
01:03:03I think,
01:03:04you know,
01:03:05a lot will depend on,
01:03:06the success of some of these,
01:03:07first batch of EVs,
01:03:08that,
01:03:09that they're launching with Dodge,
01:03:10and with Ram,
01:03:11and Jeep.
01:03:12You know,
01:03:13but,
01:03:14I,
01:03:15remain skeptical that,
01:03:16you know,
01:03:17they would see.
01:03:18You know,
01:03:19imagine Nissan,
01:03:20you know,
01:03:21they,
01:03:22they were,
01:03:23they were a pioneer,
01:03:24in bringing,
01:03:25mainstream EVs,
01:03:26to the market.
01:03:27But,
01:03:28you know,
01:03:29they have done very little,
01:03:30since then.
01:03:31We've got the Aria,
01:03:32now.
01:03:33They've got some other EVs,
01:03:34in other markets.
01:03:35And,
01:03:36they've shown us,
01:03:37you know,
01:03:38like last year,
01:03:39I went to Tokyo,
01:03:40for the Japan Mobility Show,
01:03:41and visited their design center.
01:03:42We saw a whole bunch of stuff,
01:03:43that they're working on,
01:03:44that was supposed to be launching,
01:03:45over the next four years.
01:03:46None of those,
01:03:47have arrived yet.
01:03:49Some of those,
01:03:50may not,
01:03:51a significant number of those,
01:03:52may not arrive.
01:03:53It's gonna,
01:03:54we'll see.
01:03:55It's,
01:03:56they're very much,
01:03:57on the bubble.
01:03:58You know,
01:03:59and then,
01:04:00you know,
01:04:01there's also,
01:04:02you know,
01:04:03some,
01:04:04a lot of startups,
01:04:05you know,
01:04:06certainly a lot of the,
01:04:07the Chinese startups,
01:04:08I think you mentioned earlier on,
01:04:09most of them have never made money,
01:04:10and probably never will make money.
01:04:11You know,
01:04:12that right now,
01:04:13it's estimated in China,
01:04:14there's production capacity,
01:04:15and it's a market of about,
01:04:1627,
01:04:1728 million vehicles a year.
01:04:19And those,
01:04:20those vehicles gotta go somewhere.
01:04:21You know,
01:04:22so there's a lot,
01:04:23I think a lot of the Chinese,
01:04:24brands,
01:04:25will go away,
01:04:26while others will grow,
01:04:27and you know,
01:04:28become,
01:04:29you know,
01:04:30it'll be like it was here,
01:04:31in the early 20th century.
01:04:32Yes.
01:04:33Where we had hundreds,
01:04:34or thousands of automakers,
01:04:35and it gradually consolidated down,
01:04:37you know,
01:04:38to three.
01:04:39You know,
01:04:40it'll probably be more than that in China,
01:04:41but,
01:04:42but there will be a lot fewer,
01:04:43than there are today.
01:04:44And,
01:04:45How about,
01:04:46how about Lucid,
01:04:47and Rivian?
01:04:49Rivian,
01:04:50I have a lot more confidence in now,
01:04:51than I did,
01:04:52two months ago,
01:04:53because of the deal with Volkswagen.
01:04:54And the deal with Xpeng.
01:04:55And,
01:04:56yes,
01:04:57as well.
01:04:58Yeah,
01:04:59so,
01:05:00you know,
01:05:01I think,
01:05:02I think they're probably gonna be okay.
01:05:03Lucid is,
01:05:04is an interesting situation,
01:05:05because of their ownership structure,
01:05:06you know,
01:05:07I think something like 80,
01:05:08close to 90% of their shares,
01:05:09are owned,
01:05:10by Saudi Arabia,
01:05:11Saudi,
01:05:12the PIF,
01:05:13and,
01:05:14and various other Saudis.
01:05:15And,
01:05:16at least,
01:05:17near term,
01:05:18I think they'll probably be okay,
01:05:19because I think,
01:05:20you know,
01:05:21their,
01:05:22their owners,
01:05:23don't want to see it fail.
01:05:24And so,
01:05:25I think that there will be some,
01:05:26near term patience.
01:05:27I think,
01:05:28a lot's gonna depend on how successful,
01:05:29the gravity,
01:05:30and then,
01:05:31whatever the midsize vehicle is.
01:05:32If those start to gain some market traction,
01:05:34and they start to grow,
01:05:35then,
01:05:36then they'll be okay.
01:05:37Well,
01:05:38the question I was trying to ask before.
01:05:39One other one,
01:05:40that I want to highlight,
01:05:41is,
01:05:42particularly,
01:05:43you know,
01:05:44after,
01:05:45you know,
01:05:46post VW Rivian deal,
01:05:47is Scout.
01:05:48You know,
01:05:49VW,
01:05:50you got Rivian,
01:05:51Scout isn't,
01:05:52a 100% direct competitor,
01:05:53to what Rivian does.
01:05:54We,
01:05:55we think.
01:05:56They still haven't shown a damn product.
01:05:57Well,
01:05:58I mean,
01:05:59what,
01:06:00I mean,
01:06:01they've,
01:06:02they've shown sketches,
01:06:03they've shown sketches,
01:06:04of a pickup truck,
01:06:05and an SUV.
01:06:06Four years ago.
01:06:07And,
01:06:08and the way they've talked about it,
01:06:09you know,
01:06:10as a lifestyle,
01:06:11as a car maker,
01:06:12but yeah.
01:06:13Yeah.
01:06:14But,
01:06:15so does,
01:06:16you know,
01:06:17is there,
01:06:18by the time Scout,
01:06:19arrives in 27,
01:06:2028,
01:06:2129,
01:06:22whenever,
01:06:23is there still a place for them in the market,
01:06:24or has Rivian,
01:06:25between Rivian,
01:06:26and Jeep,
01:06:27and maybe Ford,
01:06:28and,
01:06:29and maybe Toyota,
01:06:30have they absorbed,
01:06:31that market for off-road vehicles?
01:06:33Probably.
01:06:34Right.
01:06:35And so,
01:06:36I would,
01:06:37I would not be shocked,
01:06:38to see VW say,
01:06:39we worked on this,
01:06:40we think by the time we're ready,
01:06:42it's going to be too late,
01:06:44and there's not going to be enough space in the market,
01:06:46and it doesn't make sense to add,
01:06:48yet another brand.
01:06:49Oh, interesting.
01:06:50Well,
01:06:51I was going to say,
01:06:52what,
01:06:53like Mazda,
01:06:54what would stop them,
01:06:55the way Aston Martin has done,
01:06:56from just licensing,
01:06:57Lucid's technology?
01:06:58You know,
01:06:59it might be,
01:07:00I might have to wait a couple years,
01:07:01for that mid-size stuff to come out,
01:07:02but like,
01:07:03you know,
01:07:04like,
01:07:05like we were talking about,
01:07:06was skipping,
01:07:07you know,
01:07:08like,
01:07:09the best technology,
01:07:10because,
01:07:11you say what you want about Lucid,
01:07:12business model,
01:07:13whatever,
01:07:14whatever,
01:07:15their,
01:07:16their battery,
01:07:17management tech,
01:07:18and their motors,
01:07:19are the best in the business,
01:07:20by almost a generation.
01:07:21So,
01:07:22like,
01:07:23you know,
01:07:24and they're already licensing it.
01:07:25So,
01:07:26like,
01:07:27if you were Mazda,
01:07:28wouldn't that be something you'd,
01:07:29you'd think about?
01:07:30Or a Mazda-like brand?
01:07:31Yeah,
01:07:32and I,
01:07:33and I think,
01:07:34you know,
01:07:35we will see a lot more technology licensing,
01:07:36across the industry,
01:07:37and even,
01:07:38you know,
01:07:39some of these companies,
01:07:40survive,
01:07:41and I think,
01:07:42if they do survive,
01:07:43the way it will be,
01:07:44is through these license,
01:07:45you know,
01:07:46these technology sharing partnerships.
01:07:47Because,
01:07:48a lot of the underlying technology,
01:07:49that we're talking about,
01:07:50whether it's batteries,
01:07:51propulsion systems,
01:07:52electronic architectures,
01:07:53even the,
01:07:54the core software platform,
01:07:55these are not consumer-facing things.
01:07:56Right.
01:07:57The consumer,
01:07:58doesn't care who made the motor,
01:07:59that's,
01:08:00that's in an EV,
01:08:01or who made the batteries,
01:08:02as long as it works.
01:08:03Right.
01:08:04You know,
01:08:05what the,
01:08:06the user experience,
01:08:07what the consumers,
01:08:08are going to,
01:08:09especially with software-defined vehicles,
01:08:10is what they're going to experience.
01:08:11Yeah.
01:08:12That's going to be the product differentiator.
01:08:13Right.
01:08:14And so,
01:08:15it makes no sense for,
01:08:16Mazda,
01:08:17to develop their own motors,
01:08:18their own battery packs.
01:08:19They,
01:08:20should be partnering with somebody else,
01:08:21whether that's Lucid,
01:08:22or Toyota,
01:08:23you know,
01:08:24which they already have an,
01:08:25an existing relationship with,
01:08:26and same with Subaru,
01:08:27is another one.
01:08:28You know,
01:08:29a lot of these brands,
01:08:30and,
01:08:31and even with larger brands,
01:08:32you know,
01:08:33I think we will see,
01:08:34consolidation of a lot of the,
01:08:35the core,
01:08:36hardware,
01:08:37that is not consumer-facing.
01:08:38So,
01:08:39sort of,
01:08:40like,
01:08:41Marchionne's dream,
01:08:42of like,
01:08:43you know,
01:08:44one engine.
01:08:45Yeah.
01:08:46Exactly.
01:08:47Well,
01:08:48I mean,
01:08:49you know,
01:08:50as an example,
01:08:51Geely Group,
01:08:52you know,
01:08:53you know,
01:08:54they own Volvo,
01:08:55and Polestar,
01:08:56and Zeker,
01:08:57and a whole,
01:08:58and Lotus,
01:08:59you know,
01:09:00and several years ago,
01:09:01you know,
01:09:02they took,
01:09:03the powertrain division,
01:09:04from Volvo car,
01:09:05to,
01:09:06you know,
01:09:07one business unit,
01:09:08is developing powertrains,
01:09:09for,
01:09:10everything within the Geely Group.
01:09:11Right.
01:09:12And,
01:09:13and we'll see the same thing going on,
01:09:14in the electrification side,
01:09:15software,
01:09:16and electronics.
01:09:17I'm glad you brought that up,
01:09:18because we're going to finish,
01:09:19because we're,
01:09:20we're,
01:09:21we're pretty close to time here,
01:09:22on China,
01:09:23on,
01:09:24and a multi-part question,
01:09:25that will take another 45 minutes,
01:09:26for the answer,
01:09:27which is,
01:09:28okay,
01:09:29so,
01:09:30make it a sound bite.
01:09:31Where's Eisenstein hiding?
01:09:32I know he's around here somewhere.
01:09:33So,
01:09:34he'll be right up.
01:09:35How dare you?
01:09:36Cut that part.
01:09:37China,
01:09:38now,
01:09:39there's a,
01:09:40there's a 100% tariff,
01:09:41on anybody thinking about,
01:09:42bringing a Chinese vehicle,
01:09:43into,
01:09:44into this country.
01:09:45Software,
01:09:46is,
01:09:47the Chinese software,
01:09:48looks to be,
01:09:49a ban on Chinese software,
01:09:50in,
01:09:51in vehicles coming to the US.
01:09:52Almost inevitable.
01:09:53Almost inevitable,
01:09:54right?
01:09:55Seems to be coming.
01:09:56I'm learning.
01:09:57But when,
01:09:58That's like,
01:09:59almost perfect.
01:10:00When will Chinese,
01:10:01EVs come?
01:10:02And,
01:10:03will Americans,
01:10:04buy them?
01:10:05And,
01:10:06why?
01:10:07Because,
01:10:08and,
01:10:09you know,
01:10:10I'm hopeful,
01:10:11I think you've had a lot of experience,
01:10:12or hopefully,
01:10:13you've driven some of these Chinese EVs,
01:10:14but,
01:10:15everybody seems to think it's for all this,
01:10:16digital stuff,
01:10:17that's coming.
01:10:18Karaoke,
01:10:19and a great,
01:10:20in-car,
01:10:21AI,
01:10:22assistance,
01:10:23and all this stuff.
01:10:24But,
01:10:25are Chinese EVs gonna come?
01:10:26When?
01:10:27And will Americans buy them?
01:10:28So,
01:10:29I mean,
01:10:30we've already got some Chinese,
01:10:31manufactured vehicles,
01:10:32you know,
01:10:33there is a Chinese EV here,
01:10:34the Polestar 2.
01:10:35The Polestar 2?
01:10:36Buick,
01:10:37Buick also has a,
01:10:38Buick has,
01:10:39Not an EV.
01:10:40Not an EV.
01:10:41They have,
01:10:42they have the Envision,
01:10:43which is,
01:10:44internal combustion.
01:10:45The Polestar 4,
01:10:46at least initially,
01:10:47is being sourced from China,
01:10:48that goes on sale this fall.
01:10:49Last week,
01:10:50Thomas Engeloth said,
01:10:51yep,
01:10:52we're still gonna,
01:10:53launch it this fall,
01:10:54and get it from China.
01:10:55Supposedly,
01:10:56the Lotus SUV,
01:10:57if it ever shows up.
01:10:58Yeah,
01:10:59and,
01:11:00you know,
01:11:01they're not gonna eat the,
01:11:02the tariff,
01:11:03on the Polestar 4,
01:11:04until they get production,
01:11:05out of South Korea,
01:11:06next year.
01:11:07And the little EX30,
01:11:08the Volvo.
01:11:09Yeah,
01:11:10that one,
01:11:11that one,
01:11:12they've decided to,
01:11:13just delay the launch,
01:11:14until next year,
01:11:15when they can build them,
01:11:16in Belgium.
01:11:17And they'll bring those in,
01:11:18from Belgium.
01:11:19So that one,
01:11:20the price point of that one,
01:11:21is so,
01:11:22too low,
01:11:23they could not,
01:11:24absorb the tariff on that.
01:11:25100% of that would be,
01:11:26yeah.
01:11:27Turn a $35,000 vehicle,
01:11:28into a $70,000 vehicle.
01:11:29Yeah,
01:11:30for now.
01:11:31So,
01:11:32there are,
01:11:33there are some,
01:11:34but I think,
01:11:35in terms of,
01:11:36the Chinese brands,
01:11:37BYD,
01:11:38Zeker,
01:11:39Liato,
01:11:40NIO,
01:11:41you know,
01:11:42I think it's,
01:11:43as long as those tariffs,
01:11:44are in place,
01:11:45it's gonna be really tough,
01:11:46for them.
01:11:47You know,
01:11:48like BYD,
01:11:49you know,
01:11:50the Seagull,
01:11:51the Seal,
01:11:52these are really,
01:11:53great cars.
01:11:54And,
01:11:55you know,
01:11:56they sell the Seagulls,
01:11:57in Mexico,
01:11:58for what,
01:11:59$50,000.
01:12:00You know,
01:12:01and,
01:12:02you know,
01:12:03in order to make that,
01:12:04fully compatible,
01:12:05with U.S. safety regs,
01:12:06you know,
01:12:07that's gonna add some cost,
01:12:08there.
01:12:09Do you know anything about that,
01:12:10real quick,
01:12:11just as a positive,
01:12:12do you know anything about like,
01:12:13has anyone ever crash tested,
01:12:14a Chinese vehicle?
01:12:15Oh yeah,
01:12:16thank you.
01:12:17No,
01:12:18no,
01:12:19no,
01:12:20has an American,
01:12:21crash testing organization,
01:12:22ever crash tested,
01:12:23a Chinese vehicle?
01:12:24No,
01:12:25I,
01:12:26nothing that's been published,
01:12:27let's put it that way.
01:12:28I,
01:12:29I'm pretty sure that there,
01:12:30yeah,
01:12:31I'm pretty sure that,
01:12:32you know,
01:12:33there are automakers,
01:12:34that are based here,
01:12:35that have bought those vehicles,
01:12:36brought them in,
01:12:37and done their own,
01:12:38crash tests on them.
01:12:39And I should say,
01:12:40Chinese market vehicles.
01:12:41Yes.
01:12:42I bet the Buick Envision,
01:12:43has been crash tested,
01:12:44I bet the Polestar has.
01:12:45Yeah,
01:12:46yeah,
01:12:47oh absolutely.
01:12:48You know,
01:12:49and as an example of the,
01:12:50distinction between,
01:12:51Chinese market vehicles,
01:12:52versus others,
01:12:53you know,
01:12:54last year I toured,
01:12:55there's a company in Livonia,
01:12:56Michigan,
01:12:57and they had,
01:12:58two VW Tiguan's there,
01:12:59that they had torn down.
01:13:00One was built in China,
01:13:01for the Chinese market.
01:13:02Oh,
01:13:03cool.
01:13:04The other was built in Germany,
01:13:05that was the European,
01:13:06and North American version.
01:13:07And?
01:13:08And,
01:13:09you know,
01:13:10pre-tear down,
01:13:11they look identical.
01:13:12Once you take them apart,
01:13:13you start to see,
01:13:14there's a bunch of differences.
01:13:15You know,
01:13:16there's some braces,
01:13:17that are included in the,
01:13:18the version for Europe,
01:13:19and North America,
01:13:20to meet certain crash requirements,
01:13:21that are not there.
01:13:22Right.
01:13:23There's about,
01:13:24I think about half as many spot welds,
01:13:25in the structure.
01:13:27So,
01:13:28this is why government regulations,
01:13:29are good people.
01:13:30Right.
01:13:31They wouldn't do it otherwise.
01:13:32Right.
01:13:33And so,
01:13:34you know,
01:13:35for something like the Seagull,
01:13:36to bring it up to,
01:13:37U.S. crash test requirements,
01:13:38it would probably,
01:13:39you know,
01:13:40it's probably gonna increase the cost,
01:13:41maybe not to 20,000,
01:13:42but probably,
01:13:43you know,
01:13:44at least 17 or 18,000,
01:13:45you know,
01:13:46for all the various things,
01:13:47that you need to do.
01:13:48You know,
01:13:49will they eventually,
01:13:50bring them here?
01:13:51I think at some point,
01:13:52the Chinese brands,
01:13:53probably will,
01:13:54try to come into the U.S. market,
01:13:55but,
01:13:56you know,
01:13:57right now,
01:13:58there's enough barriers,
01:13:59both in terms of,
01:14:00you know,
01:14:01trade barriers,
01:14:02and other things,
01:14:03and the U.S. market,
01:14:04is a very competitive market.
01:14:05You know,
01:14:06you got a lot of brands here already,
01:14:07and there's not a lot of growth.
01:14:09What they're focused on right now,
01:14:11is Latin America,
01:14:13Africa,
01:14:14Southeast Asia,
01:14:15where there's a lot of,
01:14:16India is the market.
01:14:17Yeah,
01:14:18India,
01:14:19where there's a lot more,
01:14:20immediate opportunity,
01:14:21you know,
01:14:22low hanging fruit,
01:14:23in terms of,
01:14:24markets that are available.
01:14:25And,
01:14:26you know,
01:14:27they'll focus on building those markets first,
01:14:28and then,
01:14:29I think,
01:14:30maybe towards the end of the decade,
01:14:31we'll start to see them.
01:14:32They did Belt and Road already,
01:14:33so,
01:14:34the Belt and Road initiative,
01:14:35might as well put the cars,
01:14:36on those roads.
01:14:37Exactly.
01:14:38No,
01:14:39but I was going to say,
01:14:40like,
01:14:41you know,
01:14:42the U.S. market is what,
01:14:4314 million new cars a year?
01:14:44It'll be,
01:14:45somewhere around 15 and a half,
01:14:46for sure.
01:14:47But it's going to be,
01:14:48between 14 and 17 million,
01:14:49kind of,
01:14:50probably for a long time.
01:14:51It has been for a long time.
01:14:52Yeah,
01:14:53I mean,
01:14:54I don't know if it's going to be 16 or whatever.
01:14:55Yeah.
01:14:56But,
01:14:57like,
01:14:58India,
01:14:59you know,
01:15:00you're looking at another country that could get to,
01:15:01like,
01:15:0230 million new cars a year,
01:15:03potentially.
01:15:04Yeah,
01:15:05you've got a billion and a half people.
01:15:06Yeah.
01:15:07Yeah,
01:15:08they've got a lot of problems.
01:15:09Sure,
01:15:10but I mean,
01:15:11you think our infrastructure is bad.
01:15:12But there's,
01:15:13there's a lot,
01:15:14you know,
01:15:15it's a,
01:15:16potentially,
01:15:17large enough market,
01:15:18you know,
01:15:19that there's still,
01:15:20there's still a lot of room for growth there.
01:15:21Right.
01:15:22So,
01:15:23you know,
01:15:24if India's cap is,
01:15:25like,
01:15:2615 million vehicles a year,
01:15:27you know,
01:15:28they're not going to,
01:15:29they're not going to take a huge slice of that pie.
01:15:30Whereas,
01:15:31like,
01:15:32in India,
01:15:33or any developing market,
01:15:34you could,
01:15:35potentially,
01:15:36could really,
01:15:37well,
01:15:38they will if,
01:15:39as we just talked about,
01:15:40if they put Mazda,
01:15:41half of Stellantis,
01:15:42and other companies out of business,
01:15:43based on the sales.
01:15:44Yeah,
01:15:45but I mean,
01:15:46if you add up Mazda,
01:15:47and,
01:15:48you know,
01:15:49a few Stellantis brands,
01:15:50you're talking a few hundred thousand vehicles.
01:15:51Okay.
01:15:52Uh,
01:15:53dang it,
01:15:54we had so many more things to ask you about.
01:15:55Let's get them back.
01:15:56Uh,
01:15:57we could,
01:15:58we could,
01:15:59well,
01:16:00we'll have you back next time you're in town.
01:16:01Next time we'll just do two in one day.
01:16:02That's what we'll do.
01:16:03Yes,
01:16:04that'll be the,
01:16:05that'll be the best way to do it.
01:16:06But let me give you some time to plug Guidehouse,
01:16:07and wheel bearings,
01:16:08anything else you want to,
01:16:09you want to plug.
01:16:10Because I know,
01:16:11again,
01:16:12I went to the site,
01:16:13you have some delightful teasers on these reports
01:16:14that Guidehouse offers up.
01:16:15Not to,
01:16:16basically,
01:16:17you listeners,
01:16:18unless you're,
01:16:19like,
01:16:21what do you want to tell people about,
01:16:22if they want to learn more about you and your work.
01:16:23Yeah,
01:16:24so,
01:16:25yeah,
01:16:26so if you go to guidehouseinsights.com,
01:16:27you can see all the topics that we cover,
01:16:28all the reports that we've published.
01:16:30Uh,
01:16:31you can get our roadmap.
01:16:32Um,
01:16:33the reports that are listed on there
01:16:34are all available for anybody to purchase.
01:16:36You know,
01:16:37depending on the,
01:16:38the report format,
01:16:39they go anywhere from about $2,000 to $4,000.
01:16:40So they're not cheap.
01:16:41Uh,
01:16:42but,
01:16:43you know,
01:16:44if it's an area that you're,
01:16:45you know,
01:16:46that you're interested in,
01:16:47uh,
01:16:48you can,
01:16:49um,
01:16:50and we also do custom research.
01:16:51So those are syndicated reports anybody can buy.
01:16:52We also do custom research for clients
01:16:54on a wide variety of topics.
01:16:56So if you don't see what you're,
01:16:57what you need,
01:16:58what you need in the syndicated stuff,
01:17:00give us a call,
01:17:01reach out to us,
01:17:02and we're happy to have a conversation,
01:17:03uh,
01:17:04so we can,
01:17:05you know,
01:17:06do market analysis,
01:17:07do advisory stuff.
01:17:08Uh,
01:17:09we can write white papers and all kinds of other stuff.
01:17:11Um,
01:17:12and then,
01:17:13uh,
01:17:14wheel bearings,
01:17:15uh,
01:17:16is the podcast that I do every week
01:17:17with my friends,
01:17:18uh,
01:17:19Paul Wakelin and Roberto Baldwin.
01:17:20And,
01:17:21um,
01:17:22that,
01:17:23uh,
01:17:24you can find that at wheelbearings.media.
01:17:25You can buy t-shirts like this one
01:17:26at shop.wheelbearings.media.
01:17:27Um,
01:17:28and,
01:17:29uh,
01:17:30we,
01:17:31we talk about,
01:17:32uh,
01:17:33the cars we're driving and some of the stuff
01:17:34that's going on in the industry and do some
01:17:35interviews.
01:17:36I just recorded several interviews yesterday
01:17:37while I was,
01:17:38uh,
01:17:39driving after driving the,
01:17:40uh,
01:17:41Volvo EX90 with,
01:17:42uh,
01:17:43some folks from,
01:17:44from Volvo and Qualcomm and others.
01:17:45Uh,
01:17:46so,
01:17:47there's a lot of interesting stuff there to
01:17:48listen to as well.
01:17:49Awesome.
01:17:50So,
01:17:51after you listen to The Inevitable,
01:17:52That's right.
01:17:53Then,
01:17:54come over and,
01:17:55Download a year's worth of wheel bearings.
01:17:56Yeah,
01:17:57we've,
01:17:58uh,
01:17:59let's see,
01:18:00we're,
01:18:01we've got three,
01:18:02Buy some t-shirts,
01:18:03damn it.
01:18:04We've got 363 episodes in the catalog already.
01:18:05That's,
01:18:06that's,
01:18:07a whole year.
01:18:08We've been doing it for almost,
01:18:09You can listen to wheel bearings.
01:18:10Yeah,
01:18:11yeah,
01:18:12one,
01:18:13one a day.
01:18:14Yeah.
01:18:15And we've done it for almost eight years now
01:18:16and we'll do it.
01:18:17The Inevitable Vodcast, brought to you by the all-electric Nissan Ariya, inspired by
01:18:43the future, designed for the now.
01:18:47The Inevitable Vodcast, brought to you by the all-electric Nissan Ariya, inspired by
01:18:48the future, designed for the now.
01:18:49The Inevitable Vodcast, brought to you by the all-electric Nissan Ariya, inspired by
01:18:50the future, designed for the now.