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00:00The prop perspective for Thursday night football in the start of week number five around the
00:07National Football League.
00:08We do that now here on the early line with sports screens, Tom Vecchio, Tom, as always,
00:14we appreciate the time.
00:15Thank you for being here on this Thursday on TEL to look at the NFC South showdown tonight
00:20in Atlanta between the Falcons and the Bucs.
00:23Yeah, thanks for having me.
00:24I think we are in for an awesome game tonight.
00:28And dare I say this is like a pivotal game for the NFC South.
00:32The Falcons could improve to 2-0.
00:35They also have a game next week against the Panthers, and that would set them up pretty
00:39well in the division.
00:40The Saints are on the road taking on the Chiefs, and although the Chiefs aren't fully healthy,
00:45they all of a sudden be 2-3 after a phenomenal 2-0 start.
00:48This is a pivotal game for the division.
00:51A big one on a short week to start week five.
00:54The Bucs have the best record in the division right now overall at 3-1.
00:59This their first NFC South game.
01:01The Falcons took their first NFC South game despite not scoring an offensive touchdown
01:06last week over New Orleans.
01:08Tom, it is expected to be a good game from the odds perspective, just a point and a half
01:12spread in favor of Atlanta at home tonight.
01:15Minus 130 money line for the Falcons, plus 110 on the other side for the Buccaneers,
01:20and a total at 43 and a half.
01:24Tom, just how competitive do you think tonight's game is, and what are the numbers telling
01:28you about what we should expect?
01:30I think we are in for a slower paced game.
01:33I'm going to say there's going to be a lack of scoring tonight, and it's not going to
01:35be like the Monday night game between the Titans and Dolphins because both of the offenses
01:39in that game were inept.
01:40I think we're in for a lower scoring game because the defenses are going to show up.
01:44Like you said last week for the Atlanta Falcons, they didn't score an offensive touchdown,
01:48and I think we could be somewhere along those lines tonight.
01:51So seeing it a 21 to 17 type of game, 20 to 17, I think that's what we're in for.
01:56It's going to be really exciting because I think the defenses are going to shine tonight.
02:01Let's get to the quarterbacks.
02:02We have Kirk Cousins on one side, Baker Mayfield on the other.
02:05If we're looking at their passing yards numbers, 228 and a half for Kirk Cousins, for Baker
02:09Mayfield it is higher at 242 and a half.
02:12And the touchdown passing props, each one listed at one and a half, but plus money.
02:16If we're looking at Kirk Cousins to throw two or more, it's plus 116 and Baker Mayfield
02:19over one and a half touchdown passes at a plus 112.
02:22If you had to pick out of these two quarterbacks, which way would you go on some of these props,
02:26Tom?
02:27I think I would lean with Baker just because he's been a bit more consistent and, you know,
02:31I have like a whole theory working for this game and a lot of it hinges upon B. John Robinson.
02:36He only had seven carries in the last game and I think that is going to be changed and
02:40that would lead to just fewer attempts, fewer yards for Kirk Cousins overall.
02:44So I have a lot of props and they're all working, I would say essentially under one
02:48game script.
02:49And that starts with B. John Robinson being more involved than he was last game.
02:53So if he's going to have more carries, it's going to be less for Kirk Cousins.
02:56Kirk Cousins, only four touchdowns this year to four interceptions, actually a less juicy
03:02INT price than that of Baker Mayfield, who has thrown eight touchdown passes, second
03:07most at the NFL, only behind Sammy D in Minnesota and two interceptions, but no interceptions
03:13for Baker in the two home victories for Tampa this year, week one against the commanders
03:18last week against the Philadelphia Eagles.
03:21So let's talk about the ground game.
03:22A lot, Tom was made last week about B. John Robinson, who in the opening two weeks without
03:28Arthur Smith seemed to be thriving at least 110 scrimmage yards in each game.
03:33The production is dwindled just a little bit in the last two weeks, despite fighting Pater
03:37two weekends ago against the Chiefs for his first touchdown of the season.
03:42Last week, it was Tyler Algier lead back more rush attempts than that of B. John Robinson.
03:47What do you think of the offensive game plan tonight for the Falcons?
03:51I think that flip, that script is going to be flipped this weekend, you know, seeing
03:55seven and four for Robinson last week between carries and receptions like that needs to
03:59be changed.
04:00He needs to be realistically, he needs to be at a minimum of 15 or 18 total touches
04:05on a week to week basis.
04:07And ultimately you just got to get your best players, the ball.
04:10And I think that starts tonight.
04:11I think that also impacts some of the props that we'll be looking at when it comes to
04:14the Falcons receiving side of things, but I have full faith in Robinson getting fully
04:19more involved.
04:20And then on the other side, I mean, Bucky Irving is that guy for the bucks.
04:24There's been some positive coach speak from Todd Ballas saying that he's going to be involved
04:27more and more.
04:28So I'm going to be continuously buying in on Bucky Irving ahead of Rashad White.
04:32And it's not saying I don't like Rashad White.
04:33I just think there's going to be plenty of opportunity for Bucky Irving moving forward.
04:38Two home run chances there, Bijan Robinson, certainly, and now Bucky Irving down in Tampa
04:41base is some fun on the ground.
04:43If we look at the pass catchers tonight, the lead dogs here, Chris Godwin of the bucks,
04:4765 and a half, Drake London of the Falcons, 61 and a half.
04:51And then the tight ends here, which a lot of people had high expectations for Kyle Pitts
04:54in the NFL.
04:55Doesn't seem to be certainly hitting many of those expectations.
04:58He's 31 and a half and Kate Otten at 28 and a half.
05:01Of the pass catchers, Tom, either side, which way do you have your eye?
05:06That's going to Darnell Mooney.
05:07And that's under three and a half receptions.
05:09That's sitting at plus 112.
05:10And again, this is part of my whole theory for this game, where we're going to see Bijan
05:14Robinson more involved.
05:15And that's mean less passing opportunities for the offense.
05:18Overall, we're looking at one, three, eight, and three receptions for Mooney over the first
05:22four games.
05:23And granted, 15 total is great, but the eight is the outlier, right?
05:26So that's, we can't be banking on eight receptions for Darnell Mooney on a week to week basis.
05:31So if we're going to see more running, it's less for Kirk Cousins.
05:33It's less for Darnell Mooney.
05:34I do expect Bijan Robinson to be involved in the passing games.
05:37Again, they have to get him the ball, but man, I'll take a little bit of plus money,
05:40especially on a Thursday short week.
05:42I'm expecting less scoring overall.
05:44Unders on a lot of the props today.
05:46Kirk Cousins has thrown for at least 230 yards in each of the past three games for the Falcons.
05:51And when he has done that, Darnell Mooney has gone over his receiving yards prop of
05:5545 and a hook.
05:57Drake London, leading receiver last week, but we'll see what the offensive game plan
06:01looks like.
06:02Let's go to the other side, Tom, because Baker Mayfield has been good this year.
06:05It is two lead pass catchers that remain and Chris Godwin and Mike Evans each have three
06:10receiving scores to start this season.
06:13Who might be Baker's top target tonight in Atlanta?
06:17That's going to be Chris Godwin.
06:18And when we look at the touchdown odds for tonight, Godwin's at plus 165.
06:23He's a little bit further behind compared to Evans, who last time I saw him, he's at
06:26plus 135.
06:28But Godwin leads the team with a 26.6 target here.
06:31Evans is at 22.7.
06:32Now when it comes to red zone, Evans is up at 31, Godwin's at 25.
06:35As you'd expect, Evans is that big body red zone target going to the back pylon passes
06:40is kind of just been his thing.
06:41So although Evans is slightly ahead in red zone, I'm going to take Godwin who has a better
06:46number and is literally just actually getting more targets overall compared to Evans.
06:50He didn't score last week.
06:51Give me Godwin for a touchdown this week.
06:54There you go.
06:55And as you see that graphic up there, Tom's top props, Tom laid on us one more time tonight.
06:59What we should be looking forward to between the action-packed NFC South till tonight.
07:03Yeah, the one I didn't touch on would be Baker underpassing attempts.
07:06And again, this plays into everything that I'm working with more rushing attempts.
07:10We look at both teams.
07:11They're both in the bottom 10 elite when it comes to total plays per game.
07:14So a slow kind of division, short week rivalry game, more running from both teams, less passing
07:19for Kirk Cousins, less chances for Darnell Mooney, more involved when it comes to B.
07:23John Robinson and kind of everything working together.
07:26Like this is a chance to be really, really bright about a game script.
07:29Godwin scores.
07:30We see an efficient game from Baker overall.
07:33I don't know who wins, but certainly looking on the under tonight as well.
07:37Like the B. John Robinson over 26 and a half, even last week with only seven carries still
07:42went over this number for grabs for 46 yards.
07:46If Raheem Morris and Zach Robinson and Kirk Cousins are all getting asked about his usage,
07:51maybe that means the following week they make it a priority and an emphasis.
07:56But Tom, you are the jack of all trades, not just providing a prompt perspective.
08:00So how do you handicap a winner take all game three of a wild card series in the major league
08:05baseball postseason tonight in Milwaukee?
08:08It's the Brewers and the Mets winner take all the winner advances to Philadelphia and
08:13the National League Division Series this weekend.
08:15The Brew crew now a minus one 30 favorite to get that done.
08:20How do you break down the matchup tonight in Milwaukee?
08:23It's certainly tough, especially in these games.
08:25So absolutely leaning on the under, not expecting a whole lot of scoring.
08:28You know, we have seen a decent amount over the first two games.
08:31I will say Jose Quintana under four and a half strikeouts.
08:33It's sitting a minus one 64 in Fingal.
08:35It's minus one 45 on drafting.
08:37So absolutely shop for the best lines available.
08:40That's where I'll certainly be going.
08:41Quintana under four and a half and tomorrow the NHL season starts in Prague.
08:45So let's go to Andre Plot for a goal of plus three 30.
08:48He is from Czechia.
08:49Let's get him for a goal in his home country.
08:52All right.
08:53Prague NHL season on the ice, the jack of all trades, getting it done on the grid iron
08:59on the diamond and on the ice.
09:01Tom Vecchio, we will see you later tonight, of course, on the sports grid network for
09:05all the action for Thursday night football.
09:08See you then and look forward to it.
09:10Absolutely.
09:11Pregame show, halftime and postgame.
09:13Looking forward to all the games this week.
09:16Heck yeah, Tom Vecchio.
09:17We appreciate it.
09:18We'll give you some best bets and a further breakdown of Thursday night football.
09:22Thursday night football to kick off week number five of this twenty twenty four NFL season
09:27tonight in Atlanta, it's the Falcons hosting the Buccaneers, a one and a half point spread
09:32in favor of the Dirty Birds.
09:34It's minus one 30 money line for Atlanta, plus one ten for the Bucs.
09:38Pretty close distinction there, despite the point and a half spread, or I guess with the
09:42point and a half spread, forty three and a half.
09:45Is that total DRS?
09:47Let's start side and total first before we get to the props where I know you are more
09:51focused for your action on this Thursday night.
09:54We have discussed this by looking at the NFC South markets where they were to start the
09:58year, where they are now and what it all means.
10:01Tampa is three and one.
10:03Atlanta is two and two.
10:04New Orleans two and two as well, despite the impressive start through two weeks in Carolina
10:09is one in three bringing up the basement.
10:13This game, albeit short week, Thursday night football is incredibly significant for both
10:18of these organizations and their outlook in this division the remainder of the season.
10:23So when tonight is said and done, knowing that it's pretty close on the money line,
10:27who comes out with a victory in Atlanta?
10:29I'll give it to Atlanta and also the key indicator there, right?
10:32Minus one and a half, which means it's going to be a close game.
10:34You take a look at the first four games from the Atlanta Falcons perspective, who I do
10:37think are going to win the game.
10:38I'll take the home team.
10:391810 last week, number one, beat the Eagles by one point week, number two, lost by five.
10:44Some controversial calls down the stretch that went against Atlanta.
10:47So I said they didn't get the pass interference calls their way.
10:49And then last week of 58 yarded a win, 2624.
10:52I think we're going to get a close hard fought game.
10:54I'm going to lean on the home team here with the Atlanta Falcons quickly on the total 43
10:58and a half slightly towards the over, but not real much feel on that.
11:01But I will stick with the Atlanta Falcons here tonight in this game.
11:04Again, I've been waiting on the Falcons all year to put up an offensive output that would
11:08just blow through a total had not happened in the opening three weeks, frankly, has not
11:13happened because of Atlanta's offense even so far this season.
11:17Last week, week four, the only over of the year for the Falcons in a game where they
11:21did not score a defensive touchdown, they recovered a month punt into the end zone against
11:26New Orleans after their opening offensive possession stalled out and they had a pick
11:30six early in the second half as well.
11:33I kind of feel you in terms of not having a clear edge in this game.
11:38Yeah, I want to back the Bucks.
11:40They've been a great underdog team, 11 and four against the spread since the start of
11:44last year.
11:45Okay.
11:46It's a point and a half.
11:47How about eight and seven straight up, including both of their previous two games this year
11:51booked as a dog week two in Detroit winning outright as a touchdown underdog last week
11:56is a slight home underdog against the Philadelphia Eagles handling business 33 to 16.
12:03And I don't know how I feel short week, Thursday night football game in Atlanta where the Falcons
12:08have improved.
12:09I would say week over week in terms of the overall organization, not necessarily Kirk
12:14cousins and the offense.
12:16So speaking of Kirk primetime game, the narrative will spin.
12:20It's the quarterback comparison against Tampa's Baker Mayfield, who has been darn good this
12:24year, eight passing touchdowns.
12:26Second most in the NFL, only behind Minnesota's Sam Darnold.
12:30What do you expect out of the QBs tonight in the, yeah, I'm expecting decent nights.
12:35They're both obviously professionals and been around the league quite some time.
12:38Kirk cousins may be relinquishing some of those demons there by finally beating the
12:41Philadelphia Eagles on a primetime game.
12:43Maybe can certainly turn that over.
12:45But if I do think it's close, who do you actually trust more in that fourth quarter?
12:49Because most people say, well, I'll trust Baker Mayfield.
12:51I've seen Kirk cousins time and time again, and these big spots will pick six, get an
12:54incomplete pass or just throw an interception at this point here.
12:58If you're looking from a touchdown prop perspective on passing, you probably lean more towards
13:02the Buccaneers quarterback.
13:03And the reason being is if I'm looking at Baker Mayfield, well, he's got two dogs on
13:07the outside.
13:08Doesn't he?
13:09Like Mike Evans, you got Chris Godwin.
13:10You can see them actually getting into the end zone, throwing those fade routes here,
13:13which again, Drake London is a solid wide receiver.
13:15I'm not knocking him per se, Kyle Pitts underperforming.
13:18I look more of it like Algier and Dijon Robinson might be doing more of the work in the red
13:22zone as opposed to maybe throwing touchdowns, just like I think the Bucs will.
13:26So if I had a lean and said, you know what, Donnie, which quarterback you ride with, it's
13:29probably going to be Baker.
13:30And it's probably going to be with possibly throwing two touchdown passes because why
13:34I think it's better wide receivers overall.
13:37Four touchdowns week one against Washington two last week against Philadelphia.
13:40And it's kind of juiced up the eight, just to say, it's not like he's thrown to each
13:45and every week where you can feel consistent about the over one and a half passing touchdowns.
13:50Kirk cousins though, four touchdowns, the four interceptions did not throw a touchdown
13:55last week, but did have a pick.
13:58So let's focus on that ground game.
14:01We have listed out the names.
14:02Really.
14:03It's a compelling battle DRS in both backfields tonight is Bucky Irving, the rookie out of
14:07Oregon.
14:08Is he the lead back in front of Rashad white Rashad white more carries this year for Tampa,
14:14but the last two weeks, Bucky Irving is hat more, or at least the same amount as white
14:19on the other side, Dijon Robinson had less attempts last week than Tyler Algier to Zach
14:26Robinson, the new OC in Atlanta, recognize that in feed the eight overall pick from 2023,
14:31the football tonight.
14:32How do you break down the backfields in Atlanta?
14:34Yeah, I think it's going to be more of a split back foot.
14:37I know Tom just came on.
14:38It's looking for a big night from Bijan, but it's sort of playing to some of those narratives.
14:41It's like, well, okay, you have two capable running backs and it's a short work week.
14:44And also we have to remind ourselves that Bijan Robinson was on that injury report.
14:48Does that signify we want to give them 25 touches in a short week?
14:51And usually you might say, yes, it does.
14:53If you're Saquon Barkley in Philadelphia, because that's all you have.
14:56Algier has been fantastic to start the season, five, six, seven yards per carry.
15:00If you look at some of those games and some of those efforts, I think Algier at over 35
15:04and a half yards from me makes more sense than taking Bijan Robinson's number on the
15:08ground.
15:09But having said that, I do think Bijan is such a threat on the ground and the air.
15:12I would actually take Bijan Robinson as an anytime touchdown scorer tonight, as opposed
15:16to taking his yardage for me, Ben.
15:18He does have the best price to do that near minus 150, minus 145.
15:23That last check, I believe he has only scored once this year.
15:26It was week three on the ground against Kansas City, even the opening two games for this
15:31Falcon season, where he had at least 111 scrimmage yards.
15:35He did not find Pater.
15:37I think Bucky Irving starts to become that lead back tonight, who can do a little bit
15:40more than Rashad White.
15:42I like Bijan Robinson over his receiving yards prop.
15:45If I was going to go into the belief, as Tom expressed, they are going to feed him
15:50the football.
15:51Pass catchers, DRS, who gets your luck?
15:53Yeah, probably Mike Evans, anytime touchdown market.
15:56I know he was banged up coming out of that game last week, but he's the ultimate red
15:59zone target.
16:00Fade ball, you know, it's going to him.
16:01He has that magic with Baker, but also I told you, Kate Otten, 28 and a half yards.
16:05He's really come on in the past two games and also on a Thursday night, your best friend
16:08is your tight end over the middle.
16:10Getting 30 yards really isn't a ton.
16:12I'll go Kate Otten over 28 and a half yards.
16:15DRS, if the trends continue, Otten's been targeted at least eight times in each of the
16:19past two weeks.
16:20He's had at least six grabs, 47 yards in the loss to the Broncos, 52 last week against
16:26the Eagles.
16:27Might that still be on the uptick tonight for a Thursday where you get a discount?
16:31DRS?
16:32Yeah.
16:33So I always say, man, I'll miss you.
16:35Enjoy the Moneyline.
16:36Enjoy NFL football.
16:37You can get it live game day tonight.
16:39No bars or soaps tonight, OK?
16:41Keep those mouths clean.
16:42We'll see you on Monday.
16:43More on the Early Line next.