• 3 weeks ago
Transcript
00:00Live right here in a football Friday on the early line on
00:03sports grid rounding out this opening hour. And what a game we
00:08have based on narrative on Sunday of the 13. A lot will be
00:14taken from in that early window 1pm Eastern Time kick in
00:19Atlanta, the Falcons three point home favorite against the Dallas
00:24Cowboys. The Cowboys are sub 500, three and four, but all
00:28three victories away from the storm. Unlike last week, when
00:33they were unable to cover or win outright against San Francisco,
00:38they have won outright twice as a road underdog. The Falcons,
00:43they're five and three. They're the only team in the NFC South
00:47now with a winning record. Joe, what is your expectation for
00:51this showdown in Atlanta on Sunday?
00:55Call me crazy. I think points are coming. I mean, I could be
00:58totally wrong here, but I don't think I am. I think we are going
01:02to get a few points. Oh, look at that total 52 and a half looks
01:07like the market agrees here. God, that is a ridiculous
01:11number, Ben, but it's warranted. Is it not here? I mean, let's
01:14face it, the Dallas defense has been as bad as we have seen in a
01:19very long time. And no Mike Zimmer, no Dan Quinn, nobody is
01:23going to make this any better here. They rank pretty much near
01:27the bottom and just about every defensive category. And you're
01:31talking about Atlanta team right now that is rolling, Ben, they're
01:34averaging what feels like four touchdowns a game to begin with.
01:38So the idea to me, I think this game, the team that scores 35
01:43points wins. I don't know that they're going to win by margin
01:46either. So I think 60, 70 points in this game is not far behind.
01:51Ultimately, it's probably going to come down to a field goal.
01:54But I think both these offenses will dominate the defenses in
01:58this game.
01:59You know, it really is interesting Joe for this Dallas
02:02team this year over in five of seven games, but their two most
02:06recent wins, both games under they did go over in their
02:11opening win of the year, one of those games on the road outright
02:15as an underdog against the Browns, nobody would be getting
02:18points from Cleveland at this current moment, or at least we
02:22shall see I guess the Chargers are not the strongest of
02:25favorites come Sunday. But Joe, the Cowboys have played in a
02:30game this year, they total 50 or higher, it went over because
02:34they got absolutely boat raced by the Lions winning that game
02:3847 to nine, the Cowboys did not do much. Dallas has been an
02:44underdog in five of seven games already this year, and they are
02:49both two and three against the spread and straight up both of
02:55those outright wins on the road for the Cowboys. I thought that
02:58might continue last week in San Francisco, boy, was I wrong. So
03:03I'm not buying back into this Cowboys team. In fact, Joe, this
03:07is a really intriguing game Atlanta under in three straight
03:10to start the year now over in four of their last five, but the
03:14Falcons have not covered in any of their three four week home
03:20games booked as a favorite this season are booked at just in
03:25those home games at all against the Steelers to open up the year
03:29against the Chiefs on Sunday night. And when you look at what
03:33they have done the last time they were at home also with a
03:36game, we expected to see some points north of 50 against the
03:40Seahawks Atlanta two weeks ago was an outright three point
03:44favorite lost that game and the total stayed under this is a
03:48very compelling Falcons team to me Joe, one that I don't
03:51necessarily buy back in on just yet. But the narratives and the
03:56reaction from Sunday are going to be paramount based on how
04:00this game ends up and a lot of that will focus on the
04:04quarterbacks Dak Prescott has been a turnover machine,
04:07multiple interceptions in three consecutive games for the
04:11Cowboys Kirk Cousins really good last week six incompletions for
04:15touchdowns on the road in Tampa Joe Dak Prescott might go over
04:20that yardage prop, but he's been a yard merchant late in games
04:25when Dallas was getting handled this year. It has not been a
04:28strong season for the Cowboys who are below 500 if they lose
04:33this game and look lifeless. Listen, Mike McCarthy has no
04:36time remaining on his contract after 2024. There could be a
04:40change during 2024.
04:43Yeah, no, absolutely. I mean, let's let's be realistic.
04:47Atlanta's defense is allowing 73% completions to the
04:51quarterbacks they're playing. And Dak is going to have a field
04:55day. I mean, he's already on pace to throw 40 or more passes
04:58a game right now been mostly because they're always trailing
05:01and what choice do they have? They can't run the ball. You
05:04have a Dallas allowing 28 points a game. They're 32nd
05:08dead last in red zone defense. There's points coming in this
05:11game from both these teams.
05:13Second worst scoring defense Dallas second worst rushing
05:16defense Dallas would be a big Bijon game as well. Welcome to
05:22our number two and the first day of a new month. It is now
05:26officially November live right here on the early line. It's a
05:30football Friday across the Spiz Grizz network. He is Joe. I am
05:35Ben. Thank you for joining us throughout this second hour
05:38throughout our next two hours together. It's a full blown
05:42preview of every single game on the Sunday slate 13 of them in
05:48NFL week. Number nine Mike Blewett will join us in this
05:52second hour to give you his insight and analysis for this
05:56Sunday slate. Joe in week number nine comes to a close after a
05:59Monday night football game between the Chiefs and the
06:02Buccaneers. That's it for the opening half of this NFL season
06:0618 weeks now of course, in the National Football League at a
06:10regular season, half of them in the books by the end of this
06:13weekend.
06:15It's kind of crazy. I mean, we welcome in the month of of
06:19November and yeah, it's it's really crunch time for some of
06:23these teams in the NFL that have no more room for error. And we
06:28saw the Jets last night in a must win spot. Well, every week
06:31must win with them, but they got it done. And there are a few
06:34teams this week, Ben also on the card that have to win no more
06:39room for error. I'm talking to you Bengals.
06:42Yep. And we will talk about the Cincinnati Bengals and the Miami
06:45Dolphins and perhaps a team we did not expect to be a playoff
06:49contender before the year, the Denver Broncos, who are two games
06:53above 500. And on an absolute roll right now, Joe, the Broncos
06:58are five and three, they take that record as an eight and a
07:01half point underdog into Baltimore on Sunday, a couple of
07:07key notes for this game. Of course, we start with the status
07:10of Lamar Jackson, he has missed the last two days of practice
07:14for the flock dealing with knee and back injuries and soreness.
07:18Lamar is not a guy that often misses practice. So when he
07:21does, even when dealing with being a little bit banged up, it
07:25is noteworthy. The Ravens are also a team that when they have
07:29been favored by a touchdown or more this year, they have lost
07:33both of those games outright. It's like Joe, the Ravens play
07:37their best ball against the best opposition on the other side.
07:40When they're laying a hefty number, they come up on the
07:43losing end. Of course, last week in Cleveland, the Jameis
07:47Winston and the Browns week number two, as a seven and a
07:50half, eight and a half point home favorite against the Las
07:53Vegas Raiders. So with Lamar Jackson's status a little bit up
07:58in the air, still anticipate him playing in this football game as
08:02the odds makers do despite a point of movement. Can the
08:06Broncos be a live dog on Sunday in the Charm City?
08:11No, that can't be, people. It's you're asking Bo Nix to go on
08:16the road. Can we just let, let's compare schedules to this point
08:21here, Ben, on who, who everyone has played. You've got the
08:24Baltimore Ravens at home coming off a terrible divisional loss
08:29against Cleveland and a backup quarterback in Jameis Winston,
08:33right? You have a Denver team that, hey, listen, I've been
08:37doing it as far as I'm concerned with smoke and mirrors. A lot of
08:40that has to do with the fact, hey, you got a rookie quarterback
08:43who is going to make rookie mistakes. And as the, as the
08:47competition gets better, you'll start to see more and more of
08:51those mistakes. The great thing for Denver is they've taken
08:54advantage of a week schedule and they've been able to use that
08:59defense in order to be able to win some games they should not
09:03have probably won. But I mean, listen, Bo Nix, I think is, is a
09:07great story. I think he's a guy that is the future of Denver
09:11with Sean Payton. I think he's found his guy. I think he's
09:13good to go. But the reality is this is a step up in
09:17competition off of a probably pretty PO Baltimore team losing
09:22that game. And Lamar, as far as I'm concerned, even though he
09:25didn't practice yesterday, we haven't heard anything to worry
09:29about. I say he is going here and I think Denver's in for a
09:34very long day, especially early in this game. I could see
09:38Baltimore coming out and pretty much smacking Denver early and
09:42often. And then if you're going to ask Bo Nix to play from
09:45behind, I don't think that turns out very well on the road. So
09:50while some people are scratching their head with the number, I am
09:53not, I think Baltimore is going to have their way here and and
09:57get back in the wind column.
09:59You know, what is interesting though, Joe, the Ravens are the
10:01worst passing defense in the NFL, allowing more than 291
10:05yards. Jameis threw for more than 330 and three touchdowns
10:09last week. Bo Nix, three passing scores and a rushing touchdown
10:13last week against Carolina. The Broncos have been favored in
10:16three of their last four games. They have covered the number in
10:19all three. Denver has won five of their last six after a start
10:24where Bo Nix looked like a rookie, but to Sean Payton's
10:27credit, he allowed his rookie quarterback to go out there to
10:30take his lumps and to learn from them. Multiple interceptions
10:34without a touchdown pass in those opening two games for
10:37Denver for Bo Nix in these last six in five of those six
10:41victories, eight touchdowns to only a single I and T. And the
10:47Broncos are the second best defense in the NFL in terms of
10:51yardage allowed. Third best scoring defense around the
10:54National Football League. The Ravens are not that. Bottom 10
10:57giving up nearly 26 points per game. The total intrigues me,
11:01Joe. 46 and a hook. Baltimore over in seven of eight because
11:05of some of those defensive woes. The Broncos have also got over
11:09in four straight games. This by far though, their highest total
11:13of the year. The previous high was week number one for Denver.
11:16That was 42 points. And again, we compare the quarterbacks. Bo
11:21Nix has looked pretty good here as of late. Lamar Jackson
11:24playing at an MVP caliber. Joe, for me, Bo Nix, 1530 in terms of
11:28those passing yards. I bet his preseason season long passing
11:32yards prop at 2850 and a hook. We're on track, Bo. Keep it
11:37going and rack up some yardage this week against the Ravens.
11:40Should be noted though, again, with Lamar Jackson status, at
11:43least a little bit uncertain. Missing practice these past two
11:47games, or two days rather. The Ravens were a nine and a half
11:50point favorite earlier this week. It is dropped by a point
11:53to eight and a hook. Huge divisional game, Joe. If the
11:57Miami Dolphins are going to get back on track. Listen, they
12:01looked good last week with Tua Tungabailoa and that offense
12:04scoring more than 20 for the first time this year. But
12:08ultimately, it came up in a losing effort. A bad snap, a
12:12safety, the Cardinals take advantage. They win at the
12:15buzzer. Another Chad Ryland walk-off field goal, 28-27. So
12:20some optimism based on how the offense played, Joe, but still a
12:23loss for the Dolphins and still a two and five record. Five and
12:28a half point dog this week in Western New York against the
12:30Buffalo Bills, who have now won three straight and have covered
12:34in all three. A six and two wagon is what the Bills look
12:38like at this moment. Can the Dolphins even keep this game
12:41competitive?
12:45No. Let's be realistic here, people. Since 2019, Josh
12:50Allen, guys, is 10-1 versus Miami. He completed nearly 70%
12:55of his passes, 277 yards a game, 29 TDs, just four INTs. He's got
13:02a 113 rating. And by the way, since 2019, he has faced far
13:08better defenses that Miami has had than what they're rolling
13:12into Orchard Park for this game here. Tua, one and seven against
13:17Buffalo, barely competing 61% of his passes, seven touchdowns,
13:2110 INTs. I get the better coach team. I get the more balanced
13:25team. I get, really, overall, the better quarterback. I mean,
13:29go down the list here, Ben. Buffalo checks every box. There's
13:34something about this Buffalo. This is not the same old, same
13:36old Buffalo we're expecting the wheels to fall off. They're not.
13:40They've won six of the last eight, I believe, in this in
13:44this series. There is no reason for me to think the Bills won't
13:47do anything but do what they've done to just about everyone else
13:50here, Ben, and that is eventually pull away and beat
13:53the snot out of Miami.
13:55The Bills are six and two. They have covered in their last five
13:58wins, including that week two Thursday night game against
14:01Miami, where Tua Tungabailoa threw three interceptions prior
14:05to the scary head injury that had sidelined him until last
14:09week. The offense so much better, though, a week ago. The
14:13Dolphins as a dog with Mike McDaniel. Now that's scary. Six
14:19in 11 against the number. Only three of those six covers an
14:23outright win. So maybe, just maybe, we sprinkle on the money
14:27line to change things around by the time we get to the pick six.
14:31We'll talk about a huge game in Cincinnati. The Bagels have zero
14:35room for error next around the AFC. Live right here on the
14:39early line on Sports Grid. It is a football Friday. I am Ben
14:43Stevens. He is Joe Ranieri. Again, Joe, margin of error for
14:48a team that starts winless 0-3 and tries to claw its way back
14:52to playoff contention is slim to none. And slim might be walking
14:57out the door, especially if the Bangles cannot hold serve this
15:01week at home against the Las Vegas Raiders. Cincinnati,
15:05seven-and-a-half-point home favorites against Gardner Minshew
15:09and the Raiders. Forty-six-and-a-half is the total.
15:13Joe, last week, the Bangles were a slight home favorite against
15:16Philadelphia. No T. Higgins. His status still up in the air for
15:19this matchup against Las Vegas. The Bangles are expected to win
15:24this game. And based on a touchdown and a hook spread,
15:27rather comfortably, will it be that easy of a stroll on Sunday
15:31in Cincy?
15:33Well, you know, this was, I had this game circled as a total
15:38trap for the Bangles, but then they went out and got crushed by
15:43Philadelphia to drop to three and five. So the idea that with
15:48with Baltimore on deck on Thursday night, that maybe this
15:52would have been a little bit of a look ahead spot here for Joe
15:55Burrow and company, but they have no more room for error, Ben.
15:58That lost to Philadelphia and the way they lost to
16:00Philadelphia. They have no choice here. They have to win
16:04this game. And they should going up against the Raiders team
16:08that is 27th in points allowed per game. This is not a great
16:12defense. The Bangles is not a great defense, but they have
16:17done a decent job of shutting down limited offenses this year.
16:22But when they face teams like Eagles and the Ravens that can
16:25control the clock and run it down your throat, that that's a
16:29bit of a problem. They will not have an issue here with the
16:32Raiders who can't run the ball at all. And they're going to
16:35have to be one dimensional because Joe Burrow and company
16:38are going to play from in front in this game. And when they do
16:41that, that's not good news for the Raiders. So I do think that
16:45lost to Philadelphia puts the Cincinnati Bangles on point in
16:50this game. I think they bounce back in a big way and they get
16:53ready for the Ravens on Thursday night on a short week.
16:57Five losses Joe for the Bangles this year over in four in their
17:02three wins at least the last two where they really started to
17:05find their footing under I think this is a big game for the
17:08Bangles defense to bounce back once again. And as you
17:11mentioned, the Raiders have struggled to move the ball on
17:13the ground offensively. Good one between two former teams that
17:18used to play in Chicago. It's now the Arizona Cardinals and
17:22the Chicago Bears out in the desert. We go a little bit of
17:25line movement here. The Cardinals are now the point and
17:28a half favorite minus 122 on the money line. The Bears, the
17:32underdog 44 and a half is that total. Of course, the Bears
17:37still probably reeling from how last Sunday's game in the
17:41matchup of one versus two played out in Landover. The Hail Mary
17:46Tyreke Stevenson having to apologize to both his teammates
17:50and that Bears fan base Matt Eber Flus looks absolutely lost. I
17:54call him Eber Fluser. Now Shane Waldron is a shell of himself
17:58as the offensive coordinator. Joe, I don't have much belief
18:01in the Chicago Bears and the Cardinals have won three of
18:05their last four games, but they have won three of their last
18:09four as an underdog now very slight favorite. We're talking
18:14to base to pick them who wins out in Glendale, Arizona.
18:19This is a couple of interesting things here. Number one, I
18:22think Eber Flus is just a terrible head coach and the
18:27numbers bear that out guys, as he just never seems to have his
18:31teams ready to play on the road. Three and 17 straight up then
18:35is what the Bears are on the road. Seven and 13 against the
18:38number under Eber Flus. This is not a guy that has his teams
18:42ready to play. And I'll tell you this in the first half in 20
18:48road games here, the Chicago Bears have led at the half, you
18:52know how many times twice, twice out of 20 times they fall
18:57behind. They're never ready to come out of the gate swinging
19:00and then they have to claw and fight their way back in the
19:03second half here. I like Arizona in this spot here. I do think
19:08Arizona offensively can challenge this defense, which
19:12has been good. You know, it's one of the better defenses in
19:15the NFL. We know this but going on the road after losing the
19:20game the way they did. Do we really trust Caleb Williams at
19:24this point? I don't especially early so I'd only look at
19:28Arizona early in this game here and then look to jump in
19:31somewhere in the second half if you think Chicago can make the
19:34comeback.
19:36The Bears are a four and three football team above 500. But
19:40three of those four wins at home in the Windy City at shoulder
19:44field booked as the favorite in all technically the Bears have
19:47not won a true road game this year as their fourth win came
19:51as a slight underdog in London against Jacksonville. This will
19:55be just the third time in 26 games if this is where the line
20:00remains by the time we get to kick Sunday afternoon out in the
20:03desert that the Cardinals have been booked as a favorite with
20:06Jonathan Gannon as their head coach. Of course, he took over
20:10the reins last year they did lose in their most recent game
20:14as the favorite side. They did win outright in a slight pick
20:18them favorite in week number two against the banged up LA Rams
20:22divisional duel on Sunday in the aftermath of winning on a Hail
20:27Mary. Can you continue to ride the good vibes? Jaden Daniels
20:31dealt with the rib injury through for more than 300 yards
20:35including that bomb to Noah Brown to win the game and its
20:39final seconds last week against the Bears the commanders Joe
20:42three and a half point road favorite in MetLife against the
20:45New York Giants total is 44 and a half Washington is a six and
20:50two football team. Will they be seven and two with a cover after
20:55Sunday against the G men?
20:58Yeah, and what a weird game they played in week two. I mean, 21
21:03to 18 Washington ends up winning but only because they had to
21:07kick seven field goals because they couldn't punch it in the 20
21:10times they were in the red zone against the Giants. The Giants
21:13lost their kicker so they couldn't kick extra. I mean, the
21:16whole game was a mess, which is why I think we should expect
21:21some points in this game here, Ben. I mean, 43 and a half. It's
21:25a key number 43. But I think all things considered here. I do
21:30think at this point, I think we're going to get way more
21:33points than we did in game number one. So it's an over for
21:37me. Just don't trust the Giants. Not enough points to back the
21:41Giants here for me.
21:43The commanders made seven field goals that day the Giants did
21:46not have a kicker and it cost them a victory. This will be the
21:4923rd or 24th consecutive game for the Giants as an underdog.
21:541111 and one against the spread of the previous 23 more football
21:59Friday next. Plenty more around a football Friday live right
22:03here on the early line on sports grid. He is germinary I am Ben
22:08Stevens. All right, Joe, let's go to Sunday night football, the
22:11Minnesota Vikings, the Indianapolis Colts, the Vikes a
22:14five and a half point home favorite in the twin cities.
22:18You'll notice that Anthony Richardson is not the
22:20quarterback used in this graphic. In fact, it will not be
22:24the quarterback to Shane Steichen and the Colts use on
22:27Sunday. AR now riding pine. It is Joe Flacco making his third
22:33start of this year for Indianapolis. The Vikings Joe
22:37started as a five and oh football team. One of the two
22:40remaining undefeated at that time alongside Casey, they have
22:44lost two games in a row. So Joe, let's start with Indianapolis
22:49because of course that has been the attention this week. Anthony
22:51Richardson on the bench he has struggled to develop in the
22:54National Football League. His de facto rookie season is this
22:57year. He has looked like a rookie Joe Flacco the last two
23:01years has elevated teams that have a lot of talent around the
23:05quarterback position to make them a winning football team in
23:09the games that Flacco has played the majority of the Colts are
23:13two and one and he gave them a thrill in Duval County down by
23:17two touchdowns in a divisional game against Jacksonville a few
23:21weekends ago to come back and tie that one before the Jags
23:24did win on a closing field goal. Joe Flacco as Shane Steichen
23:30has said Joe, they believe that he is the quarterback to make
23:34this Indianapolis team a playoff contender. They believe they are
23:38a playoff contender with Joe Flacco as their starting
23:41quarterback. Does that start on Sunday in Minneapolis?
23:45Well, they better be because otherwise I don't know what you
23:49wasted a you know, number four pick here on a quarterback. If
23:53you're not going to play them and allow this second year
23:57quarterback who by the way has only started 23 games since high
24:00school. So he you know, there is going to be a learning curve
24:04here. I don't know what everyone was expecting. But all right, if
24:08you're in a win now mode here, instead of trying to develop
24:12your second year quarterback, okay, well, then you better win
24:16this game. The problem is, you're getting five and a half
24:18points here. Why? Well, because the Minnesota defense at home is
24:22coming after Joe Flacco. Let's make no mistake about it. And
24:26the way you get to Joe Flacco is you get into his face. He is not
24:30mobile at all. They are not going to be able to run the ball
24:34all that well with Jonathan Taylor. Why? Because Minnesota's
24:38defense is a top five defense against the rush. So that's
24:43going to limit Jonathan Taylor, which means your entire handicap
24:47here has to be on whether or not you think the Colts and Joe
24:49Flacco can handle what is about to be coming at them as far as
24:54a pass rush goes. Now I will say this. They got issues on the
24:58Minnesota offensive line as well. I mean, down, I mean,
25:02Darris off out. Right now they ended up getting I believe what
25:07was a cam Robinson for Jacksonville. But that is not the
25:12same. I mean, Darris is one of the best offensive linemen.
25:14Quisenberry also not good, not healthy, not going to play this
25:19game. So they've got some issues protecting Sam Donald here. And
25:23you also have a Colts defense that has been getting better as
25:28the season progresses. Kenny Moore up against Jefferson
25:32should be an interesting matchup. But this is all to me
25:35about whether or not you think Joe Flacco can handle the
25:37blitz. I have my concerns. I do, however, think we're
25:42probably getting some points in this game, Ben. So I wouldn't
25:44mind looking at it over at all in this one. Been the story for
25:48Minnesota, Joe. They went under in four of those first five
25:52wins on the unbeaten start. They have gone over in each of
25:55their two losses, allowing 30 plus in each game, 61 total
26:01points. Indianapolis, what a cover wagon they are this year.
26:04They're a foreign for football team, but there's seven and one
26:07against the spread, including a perfect five and O ATS record
26:11when booked as an underdog for most of the first month and a
26:15half of this season. Joe wasn't feeling all that great around
26:19Philadelphia. The Eagles had a winning record at three and two
26:22and even four and two, but wasn't overly optimistic last
26:25week. Maybe change that with the dismantling of Cincinnati on the
26:29road against the Bengals winning by 20 outright as a two and a
26:33half point underdog. Now the birds seven and a half point
26:36home favorite against the struggling Jacksonville Jaguars
26:41can Philadelphia capitalize on the optimism and win big at home
26:46in the city of brotherly love on Sunday?
26:48Yeah, yeah. Well, I just told you, right. So the Jags trade
26:51their left tackle Cam Robinson, and they just got a little bit
26:55worse on the offensive line, protecting Goldilocks here. Ben,
27:00they got no wide receivers in Jacksonville. The offensive line
27:03is worse. How are we getting over a total in this game with
27:07the way Philadelphia runs the ball? Not sure. Not sure. Joe
27:11Jacksonville has gone over and four straight. Maybe that's
27:14what's helping. No Christian Kirk. No Brian Thomas Jr. It's
27:18not great for the Jags. Mike Lewis joins us up next. It would
27:21not be a football Friday live right here on the early line
27:24without the services of one Mike Blewett his analysis and insight
27:29for the Sunday slate here in week number nine of this
27:32National Football League season blue as always. Thank you for
27:36your time here on this football Friday.
27:38Fired up to be with you guys. Joe's Jets get a win last night.
27:41So hopefully keep the good vibes rolling.
27:44Let's see if we can let's go to a divisional duel on Sunday out
27:49in Seattle in the NFC West. It's the Pacific Northwest. It's a
27:53Rams team that had won two games in five days to resurrect their
27:58season capped off with that Thursday night victory last week
28:02at home against the Minnesota Vikings. The Seattle Seahawks
28:05started three and Oh, drop three straight what a game outright
28:09as an underdog in Atlanta against the Falcons and then
28:12lost last week at a big way to Buffalo at home not covering as
28:17a three point home dog but blue some late news affecting this
28:20game in the week Puka Nikua injured at practice injured his
28:25knee they do not expect it to be an overly severe injury but
28:29again puts his status in question for Sunday in Seattle
28:34how do you break down this divisional duel that is a basic
28:38pick them on that money line?
28:40Yeah, I think the problem with Puka is that he's been dealing
28:42with this knee injury for quite a while right so you have to
28:45wonder how consistently he's going to be in the lineup and
28:47how consistently he can perform obviously really good when he's
28:50in there as his Cooper Cup but I think it's as you to your point
28:55it could impact the outcome of this matchup. I would say though
28:59since it is basically a pick them these two teams have been
29:03really inconsistent. I think Joe and I were both surprised at
29:06the performance by Seattle against Atlanta. I'm not as
29:12surprised that Buffalo took care of it, but they took care of
29:14them pretty easily out in Seattle a long trip to get that
29:18W. I have to pick the Rams here because I think offensively
29:24they're probably the most consistent unit of the four on
29:28the field on Sunday. It's a divisional home dog spot. So I
29:32don't generally like to bet into that but you highlighted the
29:35fact that it's just a point and a half right now Ben and it's
29:38effectively a money line play and I just trust the Rams and
29:42their coaching staff a little bit more than the Seahawks
29:46admitting that it is a coin toss kind of game.
29:51It feels like that too and I don't know. I don't know why the
29:55Browns Mike are so worried about a quarterback last year.
29:59It was Flacco this year. It's Jameis Winston. They don't need
30:03a starting quarterback. They just need any anybody off the
30:06scrap heap that can actually pass will do. I don't know what
30:11to make of it. They look like they're starting to round into
30:13what we thought they would be to begin the year, but now they
30:16got a Chargers team with Herbert looking much healthier
30:19week by week here. Boy, this is an interesting price. What are
30:23you going to do with this one?
30:25Totally agree. What's what's fascinating? I think about the
30:29Browns is not that they had Deshaun Watson struggles, but
30:34that James comes in against the Ravens and lights it up. Their
30:38offense was good last week on every level in every way. So
30:42that's the most damning Deshaun Watson piece is that not that
30:45Joe Flacco had a run of a few games, but James came in and
30:49operated that offense the way that they needed to operate
30:52throwing passes to everyone and scoring touchdowns. So
30:55that's what's so fascinating about that game last week. Now
31:01both teams have the ability to establish the run here. We know
31:06that the Chargers are effectively the most run heavy
31:09team in the entire league so that 42 and a half is a low
31:13number and despite the fact that the Browns exploded last
31:17week against the Ravens. I think the Chargers are really
31:20going to make an effort to take the air out of the ball. The
31:23only thing that would up and that is if the Browns defense
31:26is to your point Joe what we thought they might be going
31:29into the year again. They didn't they didn't stop the
31:32Ravens last week. They they stopped them enough, but I just
31:37think that there's a chance that the Chargers run the ball
31:39effectively and keep this game lower scoring that point and a
31:43half though like who's going to win. I is one of the harder
31:45ones to pick up week to me. It's a little bit reactionary
31:49to Cleveland with Jameis what Jameis did great last week was
31:54not turn the football over, but we have all lived through
31:57multiple Jameis Winston experiences in our NFL lives.
32:00Now that is going to run out and even Flacco last year that
32:04elevated the ceiling of this Kevin Stefanski Browns offense
32:08turned it over a ton. Of course, it should be noted. Ken
32:10Dorsey is the offensive play caller now for Cleveland that
32:14change happening last week as well. The Chargers are a four
32:17and three football team. The Bolts have covered in all four
32:21victories. They have gone under in three of those four wins.
32:25They have gone under in six of seven games this year. The only
32:29over was over 36 and a half when they beat the Broncos 2316
32:36and Denver scored multiple times late to even make that
32:40game look relatively close. It really was not Bryce Young
32:44remains the starter blew it in Charlotte. The Panthers at home
32:48this weekend hosting the New Orleans Saints in a divisional
32:52duel. Good news for the Saints Derek Carr back at practice
32:56dealing with the oblique injury is expected to line up and
32:59start on Sunday. It's why the Saints are a full touchdown
33:03favorite against Carolina 43 and a half is that total blue.
33:07You mentioned it all the time divisional game home underdog.
33:11You have to start there. Is that how you feel about the
33:15Carolina Panthers hosting New Orleans? I I I do mention it
33:21all the time and it's worth mentioning here, but I'm just
33:25going to take the Panthers under 17 and a half. I know the
33:28Saints defense hasn't been lights out, but I just think
33:31they're going. I think the Panthers are going to continue
33:33to struggle offensively, so I'll take their under 17 and a
33:36half. That's the way I would play it. I would note too
33:39though that a touchdown spread with a total of 43 and a half
33:43that starts to get to the area guys where you sort of have to
33:48take the points or you have to take the over having a blow out
33:51of a game of a touchdown or more with a total of 43. That's
33:56pretty tricky to hit both the under and the spread. Yeah,
34:01quick note in that game too blue. You ready for this
34:03Carolina is one in 14 against the number in the first half
34:08their last 15 games, one in 14. They lose games by an
34:13average of 18 points per game. So maybe Derek Carr can put up
34:17enough points to at least cover the first half in that game
34:20here. Another absolute a must watch game this weekend blue.
34:25It involves two teams that I have no idea who the
34:28quarterbacks are going to be New England and Tennessee boy. Oh
34:32boy. This sounds like a like a fun one only. I can't tell you
34:37who's playing. So 38 and a half is the total three and a half
34:40there for Tennessee. Who are you going with here? I mean 38
34:45and a half is not low enough. I don't think excuse me. I think
34:5038 and a half. I'd take the under there even though it's
34:52low in my opinion as bad as the Pats have looked. They are the
35:00better coached football team. So you're going to give me the
35:04hook. I'll take the Pats. I could see them obviously going
35:08down there and losing by a field goal. I'll just give me
35:11the points on that one because regardless of who's playing Joe,
35:14I think they can keep it tight, but it's going to be a tight
35:18game because it's going to be so low scoring in my opinion.
35:22It's crazy to see the Titans laying a number to anybody. It's
35:26crazy to see Tennessee laying more than a flat three to
35:30anybody around the National Football League. I think it
35:32speaks to the Patriots. Of course the outright victory
35:35last week against the New York Jets in a game. The Jets should
35:39have easily won based on what they put up and that was even
35:43with Jacoby Brissett in relief duty should be noted though
35:47six losses for New England this year. They have not covered the
35:51number in any of the six. They did earn a push week number two
35:56is a field goal underdog at home against the Seattle Seahawks,
36:01but they had not covered in a bunch of games consecutively
36:05entering last weekend against New York and I will say this
36:09blue to your point about that total New England over in five
36:12of its eight games this year, Tennessee over in four of its
36:16last five, but New England 20 points or less in all five
36:20Jacoby Brissett starts this season and it does seem as though
36:23Jacoby is going to start on Sunday. At least that was the
36:27latest report as of yesterday. Plenty more from a football
36:31Friday in the full preview of all 13 games across the NFL
36:36week nine Sunday slate with Mike Fluitt. It continues next
36:39on sports. So if you are keeping count at home, we have
36:43now officially previewed all 13 NFL games on the Sunday slate
36:48in week number nine, but we dive even deeper with the
36:51insight of Mike Fluitt here on this football Friday and look
36:55back on a few of the biggest and most marquee matchups on
36:59Sunday afternoon in that afternoon hour blew it. We go
37:03to Lambeau Field. It's the Green Bay Packers and the
37:06Detroit Lions six and one Detroit six and two Green Bay
37:10in Lambeau. The Lions are an absolute wagon right now. They
37:13have covered in all six of their victories. They are laying
37:16two and a half points on the road in Green Bay. It was three
37:20and a half as of yesterday afternoon before we got word
37:24that Jordan Love was back at practice for the Packers
37:27yesterday trying to recuperate from that groin injury that
37:31shelved him early in the second half on Sunday in Jacksonville
37:35still a little bit uncertain blew it. If Jordan Love will
37:38start in play on Sunday, obviously optimistic based on
37:42the practice reports yesterday. How do you break down a crucial
37:46divisional duel in Lambeau on Sunday? This is arguably the
37:50game of the year to date, right? So we have a six and one
37:55Lions team who lost their only game by one score in a fluky
37:59manner really just failing in the red zone like seven times
38:03and then we have the Packers that have only lost the two
38:06games by two points and five points in Brazil to open up the
38:10season. So I think it is concerning that Love was
38:14hobbled as badly as he was. He's not going to be 100%. It's
38:18second injury of the year and I think Lambeau and catching
38:24points is generally going to be a profitable position, but it's
38:29just two and a half. Nobody is stopping the Lions right now. I
38:34don't think the Titans are a good measuring stick for
38:36anybody. So you can get some overreactions coming out of
38:41games with them, but I just feel like the Lions are playing as
38:45good as anybody in the entire league. Certainly offensively
38:48and I'm not going to bet against them right now. I like
38:50the Lions in this matchup. I can the Lions to get it done
38:55there at Lambeau a game. We talked about earlier blew it in
38:59which is the highest total on the board and I think with good
39:01reason is Dallas taking on Atlanta here not listen.
39:08Atlanta's defense certainly can be thrown upon. I think Dallas
39:12can't run the ball. So that's going to have no choice but to
39:15throw it 40 or more times in this one. CD Lambeau should
39:18have a huge day, but Kurt Cousins has done well against
39:22Dallas over the years. Any reason that we should not be
39:25looking at the over in this game? I don't really I don't
39:29think so. I think too you can probably break it down by a
39:32half as well. Dallas pretty good and Atlanta together
39:37combined for 20 just under 26 points a game in the first
39:42half. I just feel like these teams could have could get off
39:47to good starts Joe. You and I have seen this all year Atlanta
39:50plays in the wildest games. I think of anybody in the entire
39:54league lots of the special teams and defensive touchdowns
40:00or at least mistakes that lead to quick touchdowns. So I could
40:05see a bunch of turnovers in this one leading to short
40:08fields for everybody and I think that's going to actually
40:11in this instance aid with the point scoring. So yes, I do
40:15like the over. I would also posit the question to you guys
40:18both like how bad is it going to get for Dallas? Like how
40:22badly could this start to fall apart if they lose this one in
40:26Atlanta, then they have Philly Houston at Washington in the
40:30next three. Could they be a three and seven team? You'd
40:35have to start thinking and it's a possibility. I think they're
40:38good enough to pull off a win this weekend, but they are
40:41they're playing really bad football defensively, but it's
40:45a really good point blue and of course Mike McCarthy is not
40:48under contract beyond this season. Could a coaching change
40:52that we expect at some point early in the off season
40:55happening during the middle of the year at the midway point.
40:58If Dallas looks lifeless and loses in Atlanta, perhaps I
41:02would say so this Cowboys team blue. We joke about them all
41:05the time in terms of their outright postseason outlook
41:09six to one before the year, one of the three or four best
41:12prices entering the season in the NFC wouldn't bet it with
41:15either of your two money. But again, we expect the Cowboys to
41:20be a double digit win football team and at least earn a
41:23playoff spot. They're three and four all three victories have
41:26come away from the stars. So I guess good news. They're in
41:29Atlanta, but the Cowboys price to win the NFC championship
41:33right now. Twenty-four to one good news for the Cowboys
41:37again, three of their four wins away from Dallas. The Falcons
41:41just one and four against the number at home this year, but
41:45here's an intriguing line for a lot of people. I think looking
41:48at the Sunday sleep based on previous performance. The
41:51Broncos are a five and three football team still catching
41:55eight and a half from the Baltimore Ravens, who are the
41:57hottest team in the NFL entering last week, of course
42:00lost outright as a seven and a half point road underdog in
42:04Cleveland. The Ravens have been booked as a seven point
42:07favorite or greater twice this year. They've lost outright in
42:11both. Is this spread too large in favor of the flop,
42:15especially with Lamar Jackson missing the last two days of
42:18practice. I understand why it is where it is. I think there's
42:23still Denver's defense has been really good this year, but I
42:26still think that the books are telling you in the market is
42:29telling you that nobody really respects the Broncos offense to
42:33be able to get into a shootout that they're not quite good
42:36enough to be able to slow down Lamar in this spot and come
42:41away with, you know, get inside the point spread here. So eight
42:45and a half is a ton. I would like I would prefer to isolate
42:49the Ravens in this one. I do think they are they are good
42:54enough to put up points on this Broncos defense in a
42:56significant way and their number is 27 and a half right
43:00now. It's being bet evenly on both sides. I very often
43:04isolate the Ravens team total. I don't always get it right. I
43:08think I have it right this weekend and I like them to put
43:10up points even if they you know and are the Broncos really
43:14going to stick with them. I think it's when you start to
43:16think I'll trust the Ravens team total more than anything
43:18in this one before I trust the eight and a half because it's a
43:21lot. It's a good point. It's what Joe was saying earlier in
43:25the show breaking down that game as well. If the flock who
43:28is a little bit pissed off after faltering last week comes
43:31out guns blazing. Can the Broncos keep pace Denver third
43:35best scoring defense in the NFL allowing just 15 points per
43:39game Baltimore bottom seven allowing more than 26 points
43:43per game. Not what you expect when you think of Ravens
43:47defensive football Mike Blewett. Thank you very much.
43:50Oh no, we got one more segment. What am I even doing? We're
43:52talking big picture with blue up next. That's on me. I
43:56apologize. Thanks for being here. We'll see you after the
43:59break. You get ready to get buddy live right here on a
44:02football Friday. Mike Blewett, of course, is still here for a
44:05third consecutive segment and we are so grateful for that
44:09blue. Thanks for being here. Once again, my mistake right
44:12before the break. Anyway, let's go big picture now blue
44:15because this weekend is week number nine. It's the opening
44:17Sunday of November Monday night. Football ends in
44:21Arrowhead as the Chiefs take on the Buccaneers after that
44:24blue midway point of the NFL season first half in the book
44:28second half remains. We start to firmly focus on that playoff
44:32picture as we go later into November and of course into
44:36December. Here are the Super Bowl 59 odds at this point. The
44:40Chiefs looking to make history as the first ever team to win
44:43three consecutive Lombardi trophies or even as a back to
44:47back Super Bowl champ appear in a third consecutive Super
44:51Bowl. The Ravens the second best price at plus 650. The
44:54Lions now the NFC championship favorites in front of the 49ers
44:59that reflected in the Super Bowl odds as well. The Bills
45:02round out the top five at nine to one of those five teams with
45:06a triple digit number to win Super Bowl 59 in New Orleans.
45:11Blewett, as you look at those ten best prices or perhaps the
45:14top five, how closely compact do you think everybody is in the
45:18hunt for a Super Bowl title? I think it's pretty fascinating
45:23in the NFC right now because it's arguable that the Lions
45:27look like the best team in football. Certainly they're
45:30they have the style points to go with it. Joe and I are both
45:33on the Packers from the beginning of the season and I
45:36think there's a lot to like about the Packers. If love
45:38gets healthier, this team could be a little stronger as we get
45:42towards playoff picture playoff time as it could look even
45:47better than they look right now, right? There's a couple
45:49of teams like that. Ditto the 49ers who are four and four
45:52right now desperately needed this bye week. They'll
45:55potentially get McCaffrey and Drake Greenlaw back in the near
45:59future and they are a team that's had slow starts but
46:04finishes strong this year though for the Niners, they
46:07have to go to Green Bay. They have to go to Buffalo. They're
46:10playing the Bears and the Rams late and I don't know that the
46:14Niners are going to go on this eight game win streak like
46:17they have in years past. So you but II say that to say that the
46:21Niners could be more dangerous in the playoffs than their
46:24record makes them appear. So that's what's fascinating to me
46:27about the NFC. The thing I would say about the AFC and
46:30we've covered it on here before is that Mahomes is presence
46:37constantly distracts people from how good this defense is.
46:41It's been going on for a couple of years now and people are
46:45like, ah, they don't score a lot of points. Look at all
46:47those interceptions that my home says they need more help
46:49at receiver. Some some of those are true. Yes, but they
46:53dominate people defensively and every time they go on the road
46:57and they're an underdog people are like, yeah, they're not
46:59going to go into San Francisco and get that win because the
47:01offense isn't good enough except that they terrorize
47:04Brock Purdy and won that game easily. I just think until
47:07somebody solves the Chiefs defensive dominance, it's going
47:11to be tough for anybody else to get a win. I'm just being
47:13honest. How do we correlate the MVP odds here? Does the MVP
47:21come from the NFC, the AFC and I mean, if you think Detroit
47:25comes out of the NFC, should we be looking at Jared Goff and
47:29you know, Mahomes at five to one, not the greatest of years,
47:32but let's face it if he's there again, how is Mahomes not
47:36winning it? Also, it's just it's strange. Little Heisman
47:41mask, right with the quarterback on the team of the
47:43best record. It gets a lot of favoritism and I think Goff is
47:47is a really interesting one. Our producer Joe Frank Bartunek
47:51on the Sunday in game live. He's been talking about Goff for a
47:55while. So I have some Goff shares in the futures market
48:00and I think if the Lions continue to impress like this,
48:04he is probably going to be the one standing near the top
48:07because Amon Ross St. Brown can rack up stats, but neither
48:11running back and it's a hard hard award for a running back
48:14to win. Now it is, but neither running back has the lion's
48:19share, excuse the pun of the carries or the touches. So
48:23Gibbs and Montgomery don't stand out from one another
48:25necessarily in a race like that. So I think Goff is a
48:28really interesting one, but you see the two guys near the top
48:32as well with Lamar and Josh Allen. They're going to put up
48:37eye-popping numbers. It's just can Goff come close to that and
48:40have the Lions standing at 15-2. I think that's the way he
48:43gets the most consideration. Nearly a 40-1 price for Jared
48:48Goff in the offseason even after the big payday, even after
48:52the retention of Ben Johnson. That number now 6-1. Mahomes
48:57still a negative TD to INT ratio. Lamar has looked like an
49:01MVP at times. Will that vote of fatigue play out? Josh Allen
49:05playing clean and efficient football in Buffalo is 6-2.
49:10Mike Blewett, now we bid you farewell, but thank you for
49:13your time. We'll see you on Sunday here on Sports Grid.
49:17Have a great weekend. Hour number three is up next.

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