Konflik Timur Tengah Picu Kekhawatiran Pasokan, Minyak Melambung 5%
"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Power Breakfast, Jumat (04/10/2024) dangan Tema Analisis Saham Pilihan: BBNI, ASII, MEDC, ELSA"
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00:00We will discuss this morning with Mr. Abdul Aziz, Investment Specialist, RdK Elite Securities.
00:12Good morning, Mr. Aziz.
00:14Good morning, Mrs. Prisa.
00:16Thank you for joining us this morning.
00:18Let's get straight to it.
00:19We will first discuss the closing of the Wall Street stock exchange and the weakening of the European stock exchange.
00:25In the U.S., there is a waiting list of labor data that will be released today.
00:32Then, from Europe, there is still a conflict in the Middle East.
00:36How far will this be the main trigger for the opening of the market at the end of this week in the Indonesian stock exchange?
00:46The weakening of the Indonesian stock exchange is also happening in Asian stocks, which can be seen as a market reaction to global uncertainty.
00:53Especially related to geopolitics and monetary policy.
00:56Tension in the Middle East is a negative catalyst for sentiment investors.
01:00In addition, the capital outflow is quite large.
01:02In the last week, the capital outflow was almost Rp10 trillion.
01:05This worsens the condition of the domestic market, i.e. the IHSJ.
01:08In a situation like this, investors tend to reduce exposure to risky assets such as stocks,
01:13and move to more defensive assets, i.e. bonds, or foreign currency.
01:19So we can see that in the last few days, the U.S. dollar has experienced a strengthening.
01:24If we look at the fact that later tonight there will be a release of economic data,
01:29which is related to unemployment claims,
01:31the expectation is that the unemployment claims will increase slightly.
01:34And there is also related to the release of agricultural studies,
01:38which is predicted to experience a decline.
01:41This will also be a positive sentiment.
01:44It will be in line with the U.S. dollar.
01:51If this expectation is in line with what has been stated.
01:55So how is the opportunity for our domestic market today?
01:58Will the tendency continue to weaken or vice versa?
02:03For the domestic market today, it will potentially not be too volatile.
02:09Volatility will be around 7,460.
02:187,460 will be tested by the IHSJ?
02:22Yes, if the IHSJ continues to correct it.
02:26There is an opportunity to continue the correction.
02:28The IHSJ continued to weaken yesterday.
02:31Likewise, other Asian exchanges.
02:33However, this morning we saw that for Nikkei Japan, Kospi South Korea,
02:37and Singapore, the trend was up, but the trend was flat.
02:40Except for Hang Seng Hong Kong, which fell.
02:42What do you mean by the weakness in the ASEAN exchange,
02:46especially for the IHSJ at the moment?
02:48It's related to today's geopolitics in the Middle East.
02:53It's getting hotter.
02:54This is concerning the economic situation,
02:56related to international trade,
02:59so it interferes with economic progress.
03:02And we can see that as it gets hotter,
03:04the situation in the Middle East is very disturbed.
03:07And if we look at it, the price of commodities is increasing,
03:11so we can assume that investors will be more defensive
03:15and reduce their risk assets.
03:18Reduce risk assets,
03:21and choose commodities that have a short-term relationship.
03:25Yes.
03:27Yesterday we saw the price...
03:29Yes, please, Mr. Aziz.
03:32If we look at it, the price of commodities is increasing significantly,
03:36whether it's commodities related to energy.
03:39If we look at it, it's also related to defensive commodities,
03:42such as gold, which is also increasing.
03:44This will indicate that investors will switch to more defensive investments.
03:49More defensive investments.
03:52What about commodities?
03:54It's not defensive, right?
03:56It's more volatile.
03:59According to your recommendation,
04:01the price of oil has increased by 5%,
04:04and if I'm not mistaken, WTI is around US$73 per barrel,
04:0873.88 in this morning's update.
04:12How do you deal with the rising price of crude oil?
04:17Do you see this only for a moment,
04:20and we wait and see?
04:22Or is it interesting to enter the energy emitters,
04:24because the global index is also experiencing significant strength, Mr. Aziz?
04:31Of course, this sentiment is usually short-term.
04:34We have to take advantage of this momentum,
04:36so some companies that have sentiments related to the price of commodities,
04:40we can look at, such as Elsa, Medco,
04:43which also experienced a significant rise in the last few months,
04:46and there is a potential to continue the rise
04:48when the price of commodities experiences a significant rise again today.
04:52Okay, so you see Elsa, Medco, the upside is still interesting,
04:55if you just want to enter?
04:59If you want to enter, you can go through the open price,
05:03or you can queue at 1% of the open price,
05:06for the price of commodities.
05:081% above the open price?
05:101% below the open price.
05:12Below the open price, 1.370 right now,
05:14so below that is interesting to buy.
05:16Maybe a target that can be a reference for investors related to Medco and Elsa?
05:23Okay, for JGPN trading, it can be around 3-5%.
05:273-5%?
05:29Yes, we take advantage of the momentum related to the price of commodities,
05:31which has increased significantly.
05:33How about the cut loss?
05:38For the level of cut loss, it's at 2%.
05:41We can't say, oh, the price is not up to expectations.
05:44This is more like short-term trading, right?
05:47Yes, because the sentiment is usually short-term.
05:50Okay, why Medco and Elsa?
05:51Why not Emiten Energy or others related to Migas?
05:55This is because Medco and Elsa have a smaller risk than other energy companies,
06:00such as ENRG, which has a high risk and high quality.
06:04Okay, because the risk is estimated to be more mitigated,
06:07so it's interesting if you want to enter,
06:09take advantage of the opportunity from the conflict in the Middle East and the price of energy,
06:13which has increased in Medco and Elsa.
06:18Yes, that's right.
06:19Okay, we go to Rupiah, which is also under pressure,
06:21the escalation may be in the Middle East.
06:23What needs to be monitored from the sector or the stock market,
06:27or do you see the weakness in Rupiah is still moderate?
06:33Okay, if we look at it,
06:35when Rupiah is experiencing an increase,
06:37several sectors may need to be monitored,
06:39such as the manufacturing sector,
06:40which is the first,
06:41the second is the formation sector,
06:43and the third is the automotive sector.
06:45Properties also need to be monitored,
06:47because some of the goods for this property are also imported.
06:51If we look at it,
06:53if this Rupiah increase happens because we see that in the last few weeks,
06:57there must be quite a lot,
06:59and some of them in China,
07:01which gives a fairly high stimulus,
07:03so that investors are more interested in the Chinese stock market.
07:06And if we look at it,
07:07the Chinese stock market is also more discounted than the IHSG stock market.
07:13And if we look at it,
07:14some of these big banks are pushing IHSG
07:18to make significant use of the last week.
07:21Okay, those are the sectors that should be monitored
07:25in the middle of the weakness in Rupiah exchange rates,
07:28because it's sensitive, right?
07:30That's right.
07:31Avoid it first, Mr. Aziz, or what?
07:34What do you mean?
07:35Avoid it first, or what?
07:37Yes, if possible, avoid it first.
07:39Let's move on to the sectors that have high volume,
07:42related to the community.
07:44Okay.
07:45Yesterday, this Rupiah was actually at 15,000, right?
07:48Then it was at 15,000, 15,100,
07:51and now it's at 15,400 again.
07:54From Erdika, do you see any more opportunities for Rupiah?
07:59For the Rupiah sector,
08:01there will be a potential boost next week.
08:04If we look at the expectations,
08:06if the non-employment rate drops,
08:08Rupiah will experience a boost.
08:10And the inflow, if we look at it,
08:13there is already an inflow from abroad,
08:16and if we look at the outflow,
08:18it's getting smaller.
08:20This will also create a potential for Rupiah to bounce back.
08:24Okay.
08:25Regarding the dividend season,
08:26is there a strong correlation between the inflow and dividend
08:29from various METNs that are planned to be distributed in the future?
08:33One of them, maybe the latest,
08:35there is information about the ISEE
08:37which will divide the dividend around Rp 3.96 billion.
08:42As far as I can see,
08:43the inflow is quite high compared to ASEAN.
08:46Also, ASEAN has very high expectations of ASEAN.
08:49And ASEAN also gives confidence to investors.
08:54ASEAN provides a policy to provide an interim dividend
08:57which is the same as last year.
08:59And if we look at the nominal, it's around Rp 3.9 trillion.
09:03This will also give good expectations to investors.
09:06So, foreign investors are close to ASEAN
09:09and have started accumulating,
09:12if we look at the last few weeks.
09:14Yes.
09:15This dividend is Rp 3.96 trillion,
09:18or equivalent to Rp 98 per share.
09:21Do you think this figure is interesting for investors?
09:26I think it's quite interesting.
09:28If we look at the interim dividend,
09:31it's still around Rp 6 trillion.
09:33If we look at the nominal,
09:35it's less than 2%.
09:38Of course, this will give a small risk to investors
09:41related to the volatility if there is a dividend split.
09:44For that, ASEAN is always close to ASEAN.
09:47If we look at the nominal, ASEAN is still at a discount.
09:50Unfortunately, the margin of safety is around Rp 6,500.
09:55The risk is around 25%.
09:57This gives a lot of potential to ASEAN.
10:00If we look at ASEAN,
10:02some ASEAN businesses are also experiencing a boost,
10:06such as UNTR,
10:07because there is a feeling that the community production is increasing.
10:11You see Rp 6,500 as the normal price
10:14from ASRA International, right?
10:16Yes.
10:17Right now, it's at Rp 5,250.
10:20If you want to invest now,
10:23is it worth buying?
10:24And what is the risk limit?
10:28The risk limit for ASEAN International is around 5%.
10:32Because ASEAN can be invested for the next 6 months.
10:36Okay.
10:39There is a chance to go back to the highest level.
10:42The highest level is around Rp 5,600 or Rp 5,750, right?
10:49Yes, of course.
10:50We expect to invest for the next 6 months
10:53before the dividend distribution.
10:56But the dividend will be distributed this October, right?
11:00If we look at the balance,
11:02the dividend will be distributed in May.
11:07If we look at the balance in May,
11:09before May,
11:10the dividend will be distributed in June.
11:12This is quite interesting for ASEAN International.
11:13Okay, so how is it?
11:14What is ASEAN International's recommendation for today, Mr. Aziz?
11:18For ASEAN International,
11:19we can start investing to make purchases in ASEAN International.
11:24Purchases, right?
11:25You also recommend to buy, right?
11:28Yes.
11:29Okay, Rp 5,250,
11:30you still recommend to buy
11:31for ASEAN International.
11:32The risk limit is around 5% from the current position, right?
11:36Yes, that's right.
11:37Okay, that's the recommendation for ASEAN International.
11:38I will send you the information of my dividend.
11:42And the recommendation and choice from Mr. Abdul Aziz
11:45will be presented after the next segment.
11:47Stay with us in the market bus segment.