Analisis dan Rekomendasi Saham Pilihan
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00:00FOMC, BOSTIK, ECB Eldersen, Taiwan, India, Indonesia, retail sales, and so on.
00:05And next, we will look at the interesting economic agenda for us to discuss.
00:09From the United States, there is data on the raw oil inventory of the United States.
00:12Then there is also the FOMC BOSTIK data from the European Union.
00:16There is the ECB Eldersen data.
00:18And also from Germany, there is data on the trade balance.
00:21And from Taiwan, the consumer price index.
00:24And from India, there is the decision of the Bunga tribe.
00:27And from Indonesia, there is retail sales.
00:29Then from New Zealand, there is data on the release of the inflation rate and the Bunga tribe.
00:35Next, the METEN Agenda.
00:38What is interesting for us to discuss,
00:40you can see it on the SEA, WOMF, and then RANS.
00:44This will hold a general meeting of the shareholders.
00:47Then WICA and the continuation of obligations.
00:55Then there is the 2021 phase 2.
00:57Then there is the UNTR, DPS Dividend Tune-in Interim.
01:03PPGL and Triskum Dividend Tune-in Interim.
01:08And next, we will look at the opening of the main Asian exchanges this morning.
01:15Yesterday, the opening of the main Asian exchanges in the morning
01:22was opened by Mix with Nikkei at 1% at level 39,328.
01:28SSI Singapore at 0.58% at level 3,596.
01:32And Kospikore at 0.61% at level 2,594.
01:36And Hang Seng Hong Kong at 9.41%.
01:45To discuss this morning, we have contacted Mr. Praska Putrantjo, CEO of Advisor.id.
01:51Good morning, Mr. Praska.
01:54Yes, hello, good morning, Mr. Sengki.
01:56Thank you for joining us at MarketBus, Mr. Praska.
02:00Always healthy.
02:01If we talk about, yes, Sengki,
02:03which then strengthened at the closing of the trade yesterday
02:07in the middle of the main Asian exchanges that weakened like that.
02:11What did you get from the movement?
02:15What made the Asian exchange compact weakened
02:19and what are the implications in today's trade, Mr. Praska?
02:23Yes, good.
02:24So, if Seng, indeed, the movement of the business yesterday,
02:27we are a little comeback, yes.
02:29Strengthened back to level 7,557, 0.7%.
02:35And that, although it happened in the middle of the net sales,
02:38around 39 billion in the regular market,
02:41so it's a bit thin, it's starting to decline.
02:42However, if Seng, indeed,
02:44the strength is a lot of support from the financial sector,
02:47especially the big banks, yes.
02:48We talk like BRI, Mandiri, BCR,
02:51and also Samsung in the sector that is sensitive to the flow rate,
02:56the decline yesterday, yes.
02:57So, yes, the property sector and real estate sector
03:00and also the technology sector, like that.
03:02Well, this, in my opinion, is one of the actions,
03:07maybe a bargain hunting investor too,
03:09Samsung, which has been discounted a lot
03:11after experiencing a significant rally
03:14in the last one or two months, like that.
03:18And technically, I see that
03:20YSK is here, indeed, has been in support of the bullish trend, yes.
03:25At the level, actually at the level of 7,544.
03:28So, when the correction came back to level 74, yes,
03:31around 7,490.
03:33So, it's an interesting level for investors to try to look around, yes.
03:36Although it also happened in the middle of the news that,
03:39what is it called, the government's plan has not been detailed yet.
03:42YSK to make a more real stimulus,
03:47that makes the stock market,
03:49YSK, which was strong enough in the last month,
03:52reached 26%, yes,
03:56or maybe in the month to date,
03:58or more than 4% last week,
04:00that made the stock market,
04:03YSK was corrected,
04:04the stock market was corrected,
04:05then it is estimated that foreign funds,
04:07maybe the stock market is starting to look back
04:09to the emerging markets, such as Indonesia,
04:11which, in my opinion, is starting to look more attractive, like that.
04:15Yes, this is what YSK looks like,
04:17getting blessings like that,
04:18and the sector that was targeted by foreign investors
04:20to then be collected is the financial sector,
04:23which again strengthened,
04:25this is the most significant,
04:26in comparison to the last trade,
04:27increased by 1.39%.
04:28How solid is this strengthening, Mr. Praska?
04:32Is this only short-term,
04:35or maybe you see other supporters
04:38who make this sentiment last long,
04:40especially near the end of the year,
04:42and also the earnings season report in Q3,
04:45and also maybe the financial report at the end of the year,
04:47related to window dressing.
04:50Yes, okay, so in my opinion,
04:51actually this is still temporary,
04:53because I must say that the strengthening is more,
04:56because it is still speculative buying,
04:58because in terms of technical view,
05:00it looks like it's starting to get interesting,
05:03after the POS has reached the support level, like that.
05:05And even though the momentum of the earnings season is approaching,
05:09which is expected to be released,
05:11maybe it will be crowded at the end of October,
05:13or maybe early November later,
05:15in my opinion,
05:16these things can be reflected by investors
05:20when YSK reached the highest level yesterday.
05:22So when it's released later,
05:25it means that these things are in line with the prediction that was not released.
05:28Moreover, we are talking about the effect of this flower harvest,
05:32right?
05:33After all, it is also expected to have implications
05:36at the level of the earnings season,
05:38which is expected to be felt next year,
05:40with a lower flower season.
05:42And about that too, if I look at the YSK correction,
05:45imagine the weakness of YSK,
05:47it is still haunted by some fundamentals,
05:50like the weakness of the Rupiah,
05:51so even the Rupiah has weakened again,
05:53from Rp. 15.1 now to Rp. 15.6,
05:55and also, we are talking about the index,
05:59I mean, the obligation of the US Treasury,
06:01the US Federal Reserve,
06:03and also our S&P 10,
06:05also rebounded again.
06:06Moreover, the US Treasury yield is back to the solar index,
06:12and our yield is also weakening again,
06:14or rising, I mean, to level 6.7.
06:17It means, here I see,
06:19the short-term sentiment pressures
06:21still tend to imagine the stock market,
06:24at least until the end of October.
06:27It means, maybe this is related to the weakness in the financial sector,
06:32it means it's not too solid,
06:35especially if we look at what happened in the index in China,
06:42related to the weakness there,
06:44because they haven't found a more certain certainty,
06:47or even more solid,
06:49related to the stimulus talks there.
06:51When they have found a certainty,
06:53it means, maybe,
06:55there will be another capital outflow in the capital market in Indonesia, Mr. Praske.
07:03Yes, I think so.
07:04So, right now, from the US Federal Reserve,
07:08and also the S&P 10 there,
07:09the stimulus is in the form of liquidity up to Rp 2 trillion,
07:12which will cut, what is it called,
07:14the obligation of the US Treasury,
07:15around Rp 50 trillion,
07:16and also some other policies,
07:19such as the limitation of prime rate loans,
07:21which has already been done,
07:23to around level 3.5%,
07:25and also the limitation of medium term loan facilities,
07:30I think it will also be done,
07:33but there are many stimulus that are monetary,
07:35will be done by the US Treasury.
07:37However, more realistically,
07:39which is related to the property crisis there,
07:42then the issue of labor,
07:44the issue of spending there,
07:46in my opinion,
07:48which has not been discussed yet,
07:49even though there will be detailed steps,
07:51which I think is good for investors globally.
07:53That's what I think can also put pressure on our market,
07:57especially since our market is still,
07:59in the long run, a bullish trend,
08:03so that it is still possible for a correction to occur,
08:07which is influenced by external factors.
08:10And again, we can also consider the conflict factor in the Middle East,
08:15between Israel, Lebanon, and Iran.
08:18This is also threatening the price of oil to rise again.
08:21This also causes concerns,
08:23that inflation will rise again,
08:25and that's funny,
08:26what is it called,
08:27the flow of flowers will not be able to bloom again,
08:29right?
08:30This is also something that,
08:31in my opinion,
08:32becomes a sentiment that is being observed right now.
08:35It means this is not the right time
08:37to be able to enter the Sambi Caps, Mr. Praskah.
08:40Yes, in my opinion, it's like that,
08:42so it can't be all out yet,
08:43because as we speak,
08:44the condition is still vulnerable.
08:46Because, not to mention,
08:47we also see the factors of the United States.
08:52It's like,
08:53the result is,
08:54if we talk about domestic demand,
08:56the new government,
08:57I think it has been responded to,
08:59quite well by investors,
09:00but more to external factors,
09:01which, in my opinion,
09:02are still vulnerable to disrupting the market movement.
09:05Because, if I follow the patterns of foreign investors,
09:07they still tend to sell,
09:10like that.
09:11And maybe they will look for assets that are safer.
09:16Okay.
09:17Then how about the sentiment,
09:18the decline of the FED,
09:20this becomes a balance sentiment
09:21from some sentiments that you have just said,
09:25which later may weigh,
09:27yes, or maybe to be exact,
09:29for the finance sector,
09:31or Mr. Praskah's finance.
09:33Yes, honestly for,
09:35what is it called,
09:36the policy of the Central Bank of the United States
09:38to reduce the FED,
09:40which has also been followed by our colleagues.
09:42This, in my opinion,
09:43has been addressed by the market,
09:44yes, the strengthening yesterday,
09:45that is to say,
09:46the HSK has flown,
09:47it means it has passed, right?
09:48Yes, it has passed.
09:49So,
09:50it seems that this banking sector
09:52yesterday strengthened more towards,
09:54what is it called,
09:55so-called backend hunting.
09:56So, try to speculate,
09:58banks that have been corrected,
10:02quite a bit,
10:03from a high level,
10:04accumulated again.
10:05What else are we talking about?
10:06The performance of the big banks here,
10:08until now we talk like,
10:09BRI, Mandi, and so on,
10:11are still able to generate
10:12quite good energy, yes.
10:14So, in my opinion,
10:15it's too early to still be able to
10:17predict a big bank sector.
10:19What else?
10:20Hopefully,
10:21this downturn can push back
10:24the recovery of the energy sector.
10:26Okay.
10:27Interesting, BBRI shares rose by 3.7%
10:29to level 5000.
10:30Mr. Praskah,
10:32how do you actually see BBRI shares?
10:35Especially for those who then see
10:37BBRI as a stock
10:39that they will collect
10:40over a long period of time.
10:43And if we look at the valuation,
10:44even if it enters level 5000,
10:46do you think it's quite cheap or not?
10:48Maybe considering the target price
10:50in BBRI itself,
10:51at least until mid-2025 later.
10:55Yes, if we talk about BBRI,
10:57actually,
10:58at a price of more than 5000,
11:01the condition is indeed
11:03not too cheap.
11:05But it's quite normal.
11:11If we compare it with
11:13historical data,
11:15it's relatively normal.
11:17In addition to their price,
11:19which I said is still quite stable,
11:21it's still a bit slow.
11:22So,
11:23for BBRI,
11:24the current condition
11:26at level 4800-5000,
11:30in my opinion,
11:31investors are still more
11:33ready to panic.
11:35With the range that I expect,
11:37the target for the upper gap
11:39at level 5500-1500,
11:40I think it's for BBRI shares.
11:45If we look at the opportunities
11:47from ESG itself
11:49ahead of the president's appointment
11:52and also the new cabinet,
11:54Mr. Paraska,
11:55how does this then become
11:57a sentiment that is then
11:58quite anticipated
11:59and most likely will
12:01have a positive impact
12:03when we are quite
12:04stuck with various
12:05external sentiments
12:07that quite weigh down
12:09the movement of the domestic market,
12:11Mr. Paraska?
12:13Yes, I feel actually
12:15the market is already responding
12:17positively,
12:18related to the appointment
12:20of the new president
12:21and so on.
12:22Maybe the market will be more
12:24able to respond again
12:26when the appointment
12:28for the cabinet.
12:29So the cabinet structure
12:30and so on,
12:31in my opinion,
12:32are also things that can be
12:33observed by the market,
12:34especially things related to
12:36the Ministry of Economy
12:38and Investment Funds,
12:39something like that.
12:40In my opinion,
12:41this is what affects
12:43the market mood
12:44for the next period,
12:45at least
12:46throughout this October.
12:49Okay, interesting.
12:50We will continue
12:51in the next episode
12:52and we will discuss
12:53the recommendations
12:54this morning
12:55from you, Mr. Paraska
12:56and Mr. Prasad,
12:57we will be right back.
12:58Thank you for staying with us,
12:59Mr. Prasad,
13:00and I am still talking
13:01with Mr. Prasad Putrantjo,
13:02CEO Advisor.id
13:03and we will be watching
13:04first of all,
13:05this morning's
13:06presentation from Mr. Prasad,
13:07including the BBRI.
13:08We have discussed
13:09the level of support
13:10at Rp4,800
13:12and RSS at Rp5,500
13:14with recommendations by.
13:15Then there is also Pegas,
13:17with support at Rp1,480
13:19and RSS at Rp1,670
13:21recommendations by ITMG,
13:23level of support at Rp26,000
13:25and RSS at Rp27,800
13:27with recommendations by.
13:28And ASA,
13:29with support at Rp730
13:31and RSS at Rp805
13:33with recommendations by.
13:34Okay, Mr. Praska,
13:36let's continue the discussion.
13:38If we look at the target price
13:40for the BBRI itself,
13:41maybe you can
13:42convey it again
13:43until the end of the year,
13:44how much can it reach
13:46for the BBRI?
13:50For the BBRI itself,
13:51I see,
13:52actually,
13:53until the end of the year,
13:54at least the target
13:55is at the level of Rp5,800
13:57for the BBRI.
13:59Because here,
14:00what is the condition
14:02that I consider
14:03the pressure in the market,
14:05what is it called,
14:06the market,
14:07where the
14:09landing,
14:10long road,
14:11in Indonesia,
14:12it has started to slow down
14:13with the high flower season,
14:15then our manufacturing industry
14:16that continues to decline,
14:17plus the deflation,
14:19until the last 4-5 months,
14:21there are still concerns
14:23in the real economic sector,
14:25so there are also
14:26immediate concerns
14:27to banks,
14:28and also
14:29earnings and revenue groups
14:31from the majority.
14:32So in my opinion,
14:33the target is more
14:34concentrated at the level of Rp5,800
14:36until the end of the year.
14:38Don't panic,
14:39up to Rp5,500.
14:41Although the price
14:42has entered the normal price,
14:43but looking at the upside potential,
14:45at least until the end of the year,
14:46this is quite interesting
14:47and can be used
14:48for the BBRI,
14:49Mr. Praskaya.
14:50Okay, from the BBRI,
14:51we move to Pegas,
14:52Mr. Praskaya, please.
14:55Yes, for Pegas itself,
14:56I see here
14:57that the technical format
14:58is also interesting,
14:59so it has been able
15:00to rebound
15:01from the support level
15:02to the level of Rp1,440,000
15:03and fundamentally,
15:04we also see
15:05that this Pegas
15:07is still relatively cheap
15:08in terms of historical valuation,
15:10the price-to-value ratio
15:11is below Rp1,000,000
15:12and also
15:13in terms of financial performance,
15:15Pegas here
15:16is still quite positive
15:18in terms of
15:20performance,
15:21so until Pegas,
15:22in my opinion,
15:24with conditions
15:25that still have a lot of
15:26positive catalyst support,
15:27both fundamentally
15:28and technically,
15:29we see
15:31Pegas has a chance
15:32to rise
15:33to the level
15:34of closing the gap,
15:35at least at the level
15:37Rp1,670,000.
15:43Okay, at the level of Rp1,670,000,
15:47until the end of the year
15:48or like what
15:49for Pegas itself?
15:51Rp1,670,000
15:53At the end of the year?
15:54Yes.
15:55Until the end of the year,
15:56at the level of Rp1,670,000
15:58until the end of the year,
15:59at Rp1,670,000
16:00for Pegas.
16:01Okay, and if we look at
16:02the movement of Pegas itself,
16:03for one month
16:04it has strengthened
16:05by 2.37%,
16:06one week it has strengthened
16:07by 4.86%,
16:09although the movement
16:10is quite positive
16:11and then
16:12the price continues
16:13to strengthen,
16:14but in terms of entry-level,
16:15what you recommend
16:16is still interesting
16:17and seeing the upside potential
16:18can also be used, right?
16:20From Pegas, we go to ITMG.
16:21Mr. Praska, please.
16:29Yes, from the fundamental
16:30move,
16:31it's a bit slow,
16:32it's normal for me
16:33because the pressure
16:34on the price of Batu Balas
16:35itself
16:36is expected to occur
16:37throughout 2024,
16:38right?
16:39However, I see
16:40in terms of performance,
16:41the market has started
16:42to recover,
16:44even though
16:45it is still
16:46in a decline
16:47state,
16:48it's not
16:49going to
16:50clean up,
16:51but in terms of
16:52DLP,
16:53the momentum
16:54is starting to slow down
16:55and there is also
16:56a positive catalyst
16:57where the
16:58price of Batu Balas
16:59itself
17:00is also
17:01starting to
17:02rise again
17:03to the level
17:04of 152%
17:05and then
17:06by sentiment,
17:07we talk about
17:08what is it,
17:09the sentiment
17:10from China
17:11which is
17:12big,
17:13it is expected
17:14to support
17:15the production
17:16of Batu Balas
17:17in India
17:18is also decreasing
17:19in terms of
17:20output
17:21and yet
17:22there is only
17:23a challenge
17:24from the UK
17:25which is
17:26also starting to
17:27decrease.
17:29Okay,
17:30for ETMG
17:31itself,
17:32for the
17:33use of
17:34C1 trading,
17:35it's long,
17:36so
17:39for ETMG
17:40itself,
17:41the sentiment
17:42we see is still
17:43interesting for
17:4427875
17:46like that.
17:47Okay,
17:48ETMG itself
17:49in the use of
17:50C1 trading
17:51weakens
17:520.19%,
17:53which means
17:54this is getting
17:55closer to the
17:56support level
17:57that has been
17:58recommended
17:59at the
18:00last 26,000 level.
18:01For ASA itself,
18:02what does it feel like?
18:03Okay,
18:04for ASA
18:05itself,
18:06here we
18:07also see
18:08with the
18:09support
18:10of the
18:11technical condition
18:12and also
18:13we can
18:14rebound
18:15to the
18:16mid-range
18:17target,
18:18at level
18:19805,
18:20like that.
18:21And if we
18:22also
18:23in terms of
18:24ASA itself,
18:25in the
18:26support of
18:27this
18:28team,
18:29it also
18:30starts to
18:31show
18:32improvements
18:33in terms of
18:34clean
18:35waste,
18:36so
18:37in my opinion
18:38this is a
18:39positive
18:40sentiment
18:41for ASA
18:42itself.
18:43Thank
18:44you for
18:45joining us.
18:46After
18:47continuing
18:48the discussion
18:49with Mr.
18:50Prasca,
18:51we will
18:52look at
18:53the
18:54opening
18:55of
18:56IHSG
18:57at the
18:58opening
18:59of
19:00my
19:01one-day
19:02business.
19:03At
19:04least,
19:05this is
19:06what we
19:07captured
19:08from
19:09the
19:11opening
19:12of
19:13IHSG
19:14at
19:15the
19:16opening
19:17of
19:18my
19:19one-day
19:20business.
19:21Thank
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