10 Day Trend - Will the rest of October get any drier?
the next 10 days promise further spells of wet and windy weather, the weekend in particular looks blustery and next week there could be a tropical influence on things. Alex Deakin has the details
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NewsTranscript
00:00Welcome along to the Met Office 10 day trend where the short message is get
00:05used to it. It's a very wet Wednesday for some parts of the UK and while
00:10there's plenty more rain in the forecast the next 10 days takes us to the end of
00:14the month and yes further spells of wet and windy weather are expected throughout
00:19the rest of October and in particular the weekend it could get really quite
00:23windy as another area of low-pressure moves in. Next week well there's
00:28something of an influence coming up from the tropics more on that in a
00:32moment. First of all let's take a look at the big picture and the pressure pattern
00:36at the moment we're being influenced by this area of low pressure come came up
00:39from the south it's ex-Storm Barbara as named by the Spanish the remnants of
00:45that weather system bringing a very wet spell of weather before that scoots away.
00:50We're then left with a drying up day on Thursday but still there will be some
00:54wet weather across the northeast but for most Thursdays a bit drier as the
00:58brief ridge of high pressure moves in before another low arrives this one up
01:02towards Iceland but it's weather from swings across the country on Friday
01:06bringing a spell of rain before the next system comes in on Saturday and this
01:10one's pretty lively a more intense area of low pressure more isobars on the
01:14charts that will be bringing some stronger winds at the weekend. Let's take
01:18a look at the three-dimensional picture and add the jet stream to that sequence
01:22and you can see at the moment it's coming up from the south an arm of the
01:26jet stream which is why that low pressure that was named by the Spanish
01:30Met Service Storm Barbara has come up from Spain and France. That's then
01:35clearing away there's not a lot going on in the Atlantic initially with a jet
01:38stream but it does get its act together. Now that first low that comes across
01:41Iceland and brings us some wet and windy weather on Friday isn't that close to
01:45the jet but the next one that comes in on Saturday well that really takes a
01:50ride on that worm of a jet stream as it powers across the Atlantic and it's that
01:55energised jet stream that really energises them that area of low pressure
01:59and it's that extra bit of energy that just adds a bit of uncertainty about the
02:03weekend forecast and the exact position and intensity of that low as it comes
02:07close to the UK but it does look as if we'll see a spell of wet and windy
02:10weather this weekend. Just going to pull out a little bit and show you another
02:14area of low pressure out in the more western parts of the Atlantic off the
02:19east coast of Canada. More on that area of low pressure in a moment but yes
02:25let's focus in on the weekend because as that low rides in as I say some
02:28uncertainty because a lot's got to come together it will be interacting with
02:30that powerful jet so some uncertainty about the exact trajectory intensity of
02:35that low but that cold front swings across the country during Saturday into
02:39Sunday quite a lot of isobars on the chart and that weather front swings
02:43through bringing some rain and that'll be followed by a mixture of sunshine and
02:47showers so yes it could be quite a windy weekend certainly that's the main theme
02:51it should be a bit milder than last weekend but it will be windy with a
02:54spell of rain with some sunshine between the showers particularly so on Sunday.
03:00What happens beyond that? Well the low pressure that arrives at the weekend is
03:04still sticking around through Sunday bringing us the showers. The isobars tend
03:08to open up a little bit into next week through Monday so perhaps not quite as
03:12windy on Monday and there's again a little ridge in the isobars, a bump
03:16there which could turn things a bit drier for a time but out in the
03:20Atlantic there is a couple of areas of low pressure they're starting to dumbbell
03:24around each other potentially forming a very large area of low pressure in the
03:30Mid-Atlantic which will dominate next week's weather now that could bring some
03:34pretty lively weather at the moment it looks like sticking out in the
03:37Mid-Atlantic certainly initially. There's a fair bit of uncertainty because of
03:42where some of that area of low pressure originated from. I'm going to rewind the
03:47clock now and go back in time back to the here and now and show you where
03:51some of that area of low pressure develops from. Yes we can trace it back
03:55down to the tropics and what is currently Hurricane Epsilon. Now it's a
04:02hurricane at the moment at the time of recording it will track its way
04:05northwards and as is the usual case with these storms it will become
04:09extropical sometime over the weekend it will no longer be a hurricane but it
04:13could still bring some very moist and energetic air in towards the jet stream
04:18that could influence our weather next week. So that always adds a bit of
04:22uncertainty to the forecast what happens to Hurricane Epsilon. Now for more
04:28information about hurricanes and how they can influence our weather there's a
04:31really great video that my colleague Aidan McGiven made on our YouTube video
04:35explaining how these extropical storms can affect UK weather so I'd urge you to
04:40check that out. But the main theme is that next week Epsilon will be close to
04:44the UK and so will be influencing our weather somehow. Whether it's direct
04:50spell of wet and windy weather or whether it brings us some warmth the
04:53main thing is at the moment that that extra bit of energy will increase the
04:57uncertainty. Why does it increase uncertainty? Well a good analogy is think
05:01of a spinning top. If I put a spinning top on a table and give it a little bit
05:05of a tweak and as soon as it's spinning stop freeze frame and say where
05:12will that spinning top finish. Draw a circle where it's likely to finish.
05:16Then if I do the same experiments again but give it a much bigger spin again I
05:20have to draw a circle encompassing all areas where it could finish then that
05:23circle when I give it a much bigger spin is going to be much larger and that's
05:26the increased uncertainty. That's why these bits of energy these tropical
05:31storms when they get into our systems add confusion to the computer models.
05:36So yes some uncertainty about next week but however Epsilon influences the main
05:41suggestion is that the Atlantic will dominate our weather next week. Let me show
05:45you this chart now this is the European model run where we run the model several
05:48times and I've shown these kind of graphs before but usually we're focusing
05:53on whether it'll be high pressure or low pressure that dominates our weather. This
05:56one is indicating whether it's more westerly or easterly winds that will
06:00dominate our weather. Blue being westerly and red being easterly not a
06:04lot of red on that chart. Now we start green because that's where we are today
06:08and we've got southerly winds so they're neither easterly nor westerly but after
06:12Wednesday it becomes very blue a lot of blue on the chart as I say for the rest
06:16of the month and beyond. So the main flow of our weather throughout next week will
06:20be dominated from the Atlantic from westerly winds and when that happens the
06:24Atlantic is obviously a large body of water it usually going to bring us wet
06:28and at times windy weather. So that's the main theme through next week more of
06:32the same. It won't rain all the time of course there will be dry and brighter
06:34spells in between but much of the rest of October expect further spells of wet
06:39and windy weather. There are weather warnings in force so make sure you stay
06:43up to date day to day with the details. This is just the 10-day trend looking at
06:48what we're looking at into next week but for the day-to-day details make sure
06:51you're following the Met Office on social media and I urge you to also
06:54subscribe to our YouTube channel and check out that video that Aidan made.