10 Day trend – Quieter weather for September? 28/08/19
It’s been a topsy-turvy summer so far, characterised by long spells of changeable weather and much shorter interludes of heat. Will this pattern continue into the start of September or can we expect something a little quieter?
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00:00Hello and welcome to the Met Office 10 day trend. We are approaching the end of the meteorological
00:05summer, a summer that has been characterised by long periods of unsettled weather and brief
00:11interludes of hot sunshine. Sure enough, following a weekend of hot sunshine, it's now turning
00:17unsettled once again. But only through to the end of August and very start of September
00:23because next week begins to look a little quieter again. It's neither going to be particularly
00:28hot nor is it going to be particularly unsettled. In fact, it will feel much cooler, but it
00:34will have that early autumn sort of vibe that we often have at the beginning of September.
00:39It certainly won't be feeling like summer, which is what it felt like at the weekend.
00:45That hot weather now clearing to the east. You can see the red colours to the east of
00:48the UK and a cold front at the time of recording crossing the country, moving its way in and
00:55opening the door to a much more active jet stream and that jet stream to the west of
01:00the UK carrying with it areas of low pressure, weather fronts and much cooler air. You can
01:06see the weather fronts lined up there out to the west of us. They're going to roll in
01:10over the next few days, turning the weather much more unsettled, particularly in the northwest
01:15and further south and east. We're going to experience the cooler air. It's certainly
01:19going to be a fresh start across eastern and southern Britain with temperatures lower compared
01:24to recent days across northern and western areas, cloudier skies, showers crossing the
01:30country. But most of the showers will be across central and western Scotland, Northern Ireland
01:34as well, where they'll be heavy and frequent. Elsewhere, a lot of dry weather continuing,
01:38but certainly feeling a little bit different there for East Anglia in the southeast with
01:43temperatures down 10 degrees or so compared to the start of the week. Pleasant enough
01:48afternoon on Thursday nevertheless in the southeast, turning a lot more unsettled once
01:52again as we head into Friday, the isobars tightening there in the northwest and a weather
01:58front moving in. And that weather front, actually you can see it's aligned with the isobars
02:01and that means that the winds are running along it rather than pushing it through. And
02:06that means that once that weather front arrives in northwestern Britain on Friday morning,
02:10it's there to stay for some time, more than 24 hours in fact. The blues there indicate
02:15the rainfall, some brighter colours here indicate some heavier pulses of rainfall as this weather
02:21front ripples and wriggles across northwestern Britain. Through Friday and into the start
02:27of the weekend, it's just going to be wet, particularly for western Scotland and Cumbria.
02:33Now in these locations, 20 to 40 millimetres of rainfall widely, but in some spots over
02:39the tops of the hills for example, more than 100 millimetres is possible. Dumfries and
02:44Galloway, a risk of localised flooding here in particular, yellow warning in force through
02:48Friday and into Saturday. But elsewhere, if we rewind the clock, for Friday for example,
02:55central and southern Britain largely escapes that rainfall and there'll be plenty of bright
03:00weather as well. With that brightness comes some warmth, 24 Celsius in the southeast on
03:05Friday and possibly even 25 degrees as we start to back the winds and bring in some
03:12extra warmth from the continent on Saturday, but only ahead of this band of rain because
03:17after it's dumped a load of moisture over northwestern hills, it then finally crosses
03:22the country at the start of the weekend. So a spell of wet weather moving its way across
03:26Britain on Saturday, followed by showers but also by much cooler air across Scotland and
03:33Northern Ireland and then elsewhere into Sunday. The jet stream dipping to the south of the
03:40UK for Saturday night and into Sunday and that means it will be another cool start on
03:45Sunday and with that jet stream to the south, the cool air on top of us, we're also going
03:50to see frequent heavy showers throughout Sunday. Some really lively downpours particularly
03:56across northern Britain and these various weather fronts bringing more prolonged rainfall
04:00at times as well, but in between there will be some drier and brighter interludes. That
04:06dip in the jet stream doesn't actually last that long because you can see how the jet
04:09stream then starts to nudge a bit further north at the start of next week and high pressure
04:13builds in across southwestern Britain in particular by Tuesday. There'll still be areas
04:19of rain or showers crossing northwestern parts of the country. In fact, some of this could
04:24bring further wet weather to western Scotland, northwest England and Northern Ireland for
04:28around Tuesday and early Wednesday. But on the whole, the jet stream will be allowing
04:34high pressure to build in from the southwest a bit more as we go into next week and that
04:41means that around Wednesday time we're looking at rain clearing to showers across the north,
04:47high pressure bringing more settled weather into southern and southwestern areas. And
04:52there's a possibility around Thursday, Friday that that high pressure will build more widely
04:56across the country, albeit in relatively cool air and that means there'll be some cool nights
05:03and temperatures will be around average by day, but it also means there'll be plenty
05:08of fine weather, a lot of dry conditions, particularly in the south. But as we go through
05:13next week and into the following weekend, always the possibility that the jet stream
05:18will bring low pressure close to the northwest of the country. So all in all, with the jet
05:23stream tending to be towards the more northern part of the UK, the weather's looking a little
05:30more settled next week and any rain will be mainly across northwestern areas, western
05:36Scotland, northwest England, Northern Ireland. Mainly in the south it'll be fine, there'll
05:40be some cool nights, some misty mornings as well, but plenty of mellow sunshine by day.
05:47So early September and that early autumn sort of weather that we often get at this time
05:53of year. But of course if you want more details you can follow us on social media and keep
05:58up to date with all the very latest weather news. That's all for me, bye bye.