Week ahead – One low, lots of showers
One area of low pressure will dominate our weather this week, it will send bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms across the country each day. The low is expected to clear or the weekend but then another low with an interesting history may take ove
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00Welcome to a slightly unusual week of weather dominated by just one area of low pressure.
00:06We often have one area of high pressure controlling our weather. We've certainly seen that a lot
00:10through the summer. But to have one area of low pressure controlling things for a number
00:15of days is fairly unusual. Lots of isobars on the charts initially as well. So that low
00:19will bring spells of wet and windy weather spiralling around it. By the time we get to
00:25Thursday, the low itself is kind of crossing the country. That means that the heavy showers
00:30it generates could become quite slow moving in places before it finally starts to drift
00:35away to the east by Friday. So dominated by one weather system, let's try and put some
00:42details on day by day. Tuesday shows a dry start for many, but some thunderstorms overnight
00:48still rumbling on over parts of northern England, southern Scotland. And we'll see more showers
00:52then generated through the day with nowhere immune. These are showers, so they will be
00:58somewhat hit and miss, but they'll also be heavy and perhaps even turn into thunderstorms
01:02with hail likely and certainly likely to drop a lot of rain in a short space of time. And
01:08as is often the case with showers and pretty tricky driving conditions, one minute it's
01:12dry and sunny. Next minute, you've got a downpour, a lot of spray and surface water on the roads.
01:18Notice the winds are coming up from the south around that area of low pressure, so bringing
01:23with them relatively warm air. So when the sun is out and it will come out at times,
01:27temperatures getting into the low or even mid-twenties across parts of eastern England.
01:33Still feeling quite warm, quite a brisk wind blowing again across the northeast and across
01:37the southwest, throwing in more showers here as we go through the evening. There's that
01:41low pressure still continuing to dominate. And as I say, further bands of showers will
01:47mill around it as we head into Wednesday. Again, many places will start the day dry
01:53with some sunny spells, but we'll see showers likely across northeastern parts of Scotland
01:58and then again, everywhere else joins in with those showers just scattered across all parts.
02:03Really by late morning, we'll see again heavy thundery downpours in places. They should
02:09tend to move through because there'll be enough of a breeze and we will again see some decent
02:13spells of sunshine, the south coast of England, for example, and that will lift the temperatures
02:18to above average values getting into the high teens or the low twenties. By the time we
02:23get to Thursday, as we saw earlier, that low pressure is kind of moving in across the UK.
02:28The isobars just started to open up in places. Could be quite windy across the southwest
02:33on Wednesday night for sure. But otherwise, as this low moves in, what we could see is
02:38the showers just kind of become more slow moving. So they'll last a little longer and
02:42they could drop more rain. And again, that could cause some issues. Certainly, again,
02:47nowhere immune from the downpours, but perhaps western Scotland looking a little drier on
02:51Thursday compared to the rest of the UK. Elsewhere, as I said, be prepared for showers, be prepared
02:56for some spray and surface water on the roads. And again, temperatures mostly a touch above
03:02average high teens or low twenties. Now, that low pressure is starting to very slowly ebb
03:09out towards the North Sea by the time we start Friday. Still, a lot of heavy showers
03:14moving around it, particularly across central and eastern parts. But the showers should
03:19be easing in the west. So a drier day for Northern Ireland and drying up perhaps across
03:24Wales and southwest England. Elsewhere, yes, plenty of showers during the day. But even
03:29here as that low starts to pull away later on, we should see the showers starting to
03:34fade. The winds are switching direction, though, so perhaps bringing a cooler feel, particularly
03:38on some of those North Sea coasts. That low pressure system then is finally starting to
03:43pull away by the time it gets to the weekend. So actually, at the moment, Saturday looks
03:48like being a largely dry day across the UK. Still a few showers here and there, but turning
03:53drier. However, there's another area of low pressure which is gaining quite a bit of attention.
04:00This one is bringing quite a bit of uncertainty into the forecast through the weekend and
04:05more particularly into next week. And here's the reason why. If we again rewind the clock
04:10and track this area of low pressure, you can see it has tropical origins. In fact, this
04:15low pressure starting out as is currently a hurricane. It's Hurricane Danielle in the
04:21subtropics. Now, as it drifts northwards, it will no longer be a hurricane. But when
04:25you've got these highly energetic systems, it does make the forecast more complicated.
04:31It brings with it more uncertainty, as this graphic shows quite clearly. This is a graph
04:37of the potential tracks when we run the computer model many, many times. Now, the different
04:43colours you can see here are the different days. So the first day red, then 48 hours
04:50in green. And then the next couple of days, you can see quite a reasonable agreement that
04:54most of the computer model runs are suggesting it's going to go into this track. But as we
04:58get towards Friday and the weekend, the tracks kind of splay out. So a lot of uncertainty,
05:05some of them taking them to the north, some of them taking them to the south and not many
05:09of them taking that area of low pressure, intense area of low pressure with all its
05:13warmth and humidity across the UK. So quite a bit of uncertainty as we go towards the
05:18weekend. Nothing unusual about that one. We've got X hurricanes in the mix, but certainly
05:23something to keep a very close eye on over the next few days. We'll be doing that here
05:27at the Met Office. Make sure you keep across all of our output by following us across social
05:33media.