Harris' Hail Mary: VP Might Appear On Joe Rogan Podcast As Trump Swings Ahead In Battleground States.
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00:00It is less than three weeks until Election Day and both campaigns are making their final
00:09push to voters across the country.
00:12Both campaigns and candidates are heading to swing states across the U.S. and taking
00:16part in their own media blitzes in an effort to reach more voters.
00:19Here to go on the record is Scott Tranter, Director of Data Science from Decision Desk
00:24HQ.
00:25Scott, as always, it's great to see you.
00:26I want to start first with the Vice President.
00:28Kamala Harris is continuing her own media blitz leading up to the election.
00:32She's appearing on Fox News and there's a possibility of her appearing on Joe Rogan's
00:37own podcast.
00:38You know, Scott, both of these shows appeal to different audiences, many would say very
00:43broad audiences, but, you know, will either of these appearances or potential appearance
00:49for the Rogan show move the needle for her at all?
00:52Look, I think it's a good thing, right?
00:54The most people who watch these podcasts, they're not watching CNN, MSNBC or the other
00:58major networks four or five hours a day, which is where a lot of these interviews, you know,
01:03the major news networks have occurred.
01:05So move the needle.
01:06It remains to be seen.
01:07We've got a few weeks to go and so we'll see it.
01:09But I think this is a good, good move by her to get in front of some voters who are spending
01:13very little time thinking about the election.
01:15I want to move over to the Trump campaign now, and we've looked at a number of different
01:19polls and we've seen that really over the past 10 days or so, Trump has seen a slight
01:23bump in the Rust Belt states, also known as the Blue Wall states of Michigan, Wisconsin
01:28and Pennsylvania.
01:29So, Scott, does the Decision Desk HQ average or forecast match those findings?
01:35Yeah.
01:36Over the last two weeks, we've seen her chances of winning go from about 54-55 to about 50-51%
01:44this week.
01:45It fluctuates based on some polls and some fundraising we're getting in, but that is
01:49some significant movement considering that basically the biggest movement we've had in
01:54our forecast all year long is when Joe Biden dropped out.
01:57And so this is some momentum for Donald Trump as he goes into early voting and absentee
02:03voting as we nailed on the stretch.
02:05But I want to caution, it's some slight movement towards Donald Trump, but no one should be
02:10surprised if Donald Trump wins or loses or Harris wins or loses.
02:13The forecast is right down the middle right now.
02:16Yeah, it seems to be truly 50-50 across the board.
02:19So speaking of the Blue Wall and Michigan in particular, Michigan is home to one of
02:24the highest percentages of Arab Americans in the United States.
02:28You know, we know that Kamala Harris has faced some pushback, particularly from progressive
02:33wings of the party and also Arab Americans for her role in the Biden administration and
02:38the administration's handling of the war in Gaza and the Middle East.
02:43So Scott, does her handling of that war, the conflict and her position as vice president
02:49being so close to President Biden impact her chances at all in Michigan, particularly with
02:54Arab American voters?
02:55Yeah.
02:56So two things on that.
02:57It doesn't impact a large amount of voters, but Michigan is razor thin and Michigan may
03:01be won by a small amount of voters.
03:03And so that's why I think this contingency is important.
03:06There's also some adjacent contingencies, not just Arab Americans, but how the Israel-Palestine
03:12issue has been handled by the administration is important to voters 18 to 25, specifically
03:16Democratic voters.
03:17Again, which aren't a big segment, but they could be big enough to make a difference in
03:23a state that's probably going to be decided by tens of thousands of votes.
03:27So over on the Trump campaign, he went to Atlanta this week and campaigned in Atlanta
03:32and campaigned on the economy.
03:35You know, wanted to get the sense of what the latest DDHQ forecasting is out of Georgia.
03:41Yeah.
03:42Well, look, Donald Trump has shored up a little bit some of some of the ground he gave up
03:47to to VP Harris over the last month.
03:49He's still favored to win ever so slightly.
03:52That's about a point, point and a half in the average on the on the forecast probability.
03:56He's in the he's in the low 60s in terms of probability to win.
04:00Again, the momentum has been been slightly in his favor over the last couple of weeks.
04:04Georgia historically is a Republican state.
04:06It's a state that Joe Biden surprisingly won in 2020, so that's why it's so close.
04:10But that's why both candidates are spending both a lot of money and a lot of time there.
04:14So sticking with the Sunbelt, but moving west to Arizona, Kamala Harris is seeking to appeal
04:19to Republican voters in a new ad.
04:21We know that Arizona, you know, often considered a swing state.
04:25It's home to, you know, a group of Republican voters that were very strongly supportive
04:30of the late Senator John McCain.
04:33You know, Scott, I'm curious, where does this group of voters go?
04:37I mean, is it possible for Harris to get some momentum with these Republicans from
04:43McCain's wing of the GOP?
04:45You know, it's something that even moderate Republicans try to get, you know, that the
04:50McCain wing in the GOP primary this year.
04:53I'm not convinced that, you know, Harris has the winning message to get them over if Nikki
04:57Haley couldn't couldn't make it happen in the GOP primary.
05:00But again, if she's able to switch 10, 15, 20000 voters in a state like Arizona on something
05:06like this, a state that, again, will probably be decided by tens of thousands of votes,
05:10it's worth a try.
05:11And she's got way too much money and can spend it on things like this to try and eke out,
05:17you know, 5, 10, 15000 votes here or there.
05:20So in North Carolina, we know that former President Trump has made a number of false
05:24statements about the federal government, FEMA's response to Hurricane Helene.
05:28And like I said, this particular is taking place in North Carolina, very hard hit by
05:33that storm.
05:34Are we seeing this having any impact on the polling coming out of the state?
05:39Yeah, look, it's the polling has specifically North Carolina and in Florida has shifted
05:44a little bit back toward towards Donald Trump, you know, post all these hurricanes.
05:50We haven't seen any of the effect in the absentee and early voting yet in North Carolina or
05:54Florida that would pretend that these types of things and the situation in and around
05:59FEMA and support post-hurricane support is having an effect.
06:02But both campaigns are addressing it both on the stump and in various interviews.
06:06So I would say they probably got some internally polling that says we've got to address this
06:11if you're VP Harris and Donald Trump uses that as a line of attack so that he can try
06:15to gain some voters.
06:17Ask me again next week.
06:18We'll have a big update out of Western North Carolina where all those hard-hitting counties
06:23were hit by the hurricane and see if there was any effect at all.
06:26That'll be a good data point.
06:28I will definitely make a note of that.
06:31You know, I want to go to the Harris campaign right now or go back to the Harris campaign
06:34because the vice president has brought out former presidents Obama and Clinton right
06:39onto the campaign trail.
06:40Look, Scott, we know that these are very popular figures within the Democratic Party, particularly
06:45President Obama.
06:46But look, it's been nearly 10 years since Obama has been office over 20 years since
06:52Clinton has been in office.
06:53So how much star power do these two former presidents actually have?
06:57And is it enough to boost Harris over the finish line?
07:01I don't know how much star power they have.
07:03I mean, Clinton, whoa, that was like 30 years ago.
07:05Yeah.
07:06You know, Barack Obama, when you say 10 years, wow, I'm getting old.
07:10Look, they're good for fundraising and fundraising is good to get voters out there.
07:15I don't necessarily think either of those are moving any swayable voters.
07:19They might be able to shore up some of the Democrats who are upset with Harris on some
07:24of the Israel-Palestine stuff.
07:26If they go to Michigan and help there.
07:28But I don't know that they're going to move any big votes.
07:30They're there mostly for fundraising and mostly because good photo ops.
07:33And again, mostly you can only put you only can put so many people on stage.
07:38And so might as well take some former presidents.
07:41And you know, President Obama made a lot of news or a particular piece of news last week
07:46when he was in Pittsburgh campaigning for Kamala Harris.
07:49And he made a very stern appeal to black men in particular, saying he essentially caught
07:54the wind of a lack of enthusiasm for her among the voting bloc.
07:59Scott, why is Kamala Harris struggling with this demographic?
08:03Yeah.
08:04No, that that is going to be one of the questions we look at the 2024 election afterwards, because
08:09it looks like Donald Trump might be able to get a historically high 15, 20 percent of
08:14the African-American vote.
08:15And it's going to be largely driven by his support among African-American men, specifically
08:19in the 18 to 35 cohort.
08:21And I know I'm drilling down there a lot.
08:23And look, Harris is going to win the African-American vote outright by a lot.
08:26But Donald Trump and the GOP is going to make some inroads.
08:28I think it has a lot to do with a lot of Trump's position on taxes, cryptocurrency, some of
08:35these some of these issues and around finances and income and business ownership, things
08:39like that that are that are appealing.
08:42You know, and we see VP Harris issuing policy statements in the last week or so specifically
08:47addressing that.
08:48So, yeah, it's an interesting segment to watch.
08:51It could make the difference in a state like North Carolina and Georgia as well.
08:55You know, in addition to his campaigning across the battleground states this week, Trump was
08:59actually in Chicago, where he clashed with the editor in chief of Bloomberg News over
09:04tariffs during an economic forum.
09:07We know that many economists have said that Trump's economic plan could raise prices for
09:12Americans because of those tariffs.
09:14But we've seen that his base has really appreciated and supported the America first agenda and
09:21much of that involves tariffs.
09:23And when we talk about the economy, Scott, are tariffs ultimately a liability for Trump
09:29with the swing voters who are concerned about the economy but maybe don't want to see higher
09:34prices?
09:35You know, we're watching a live test of that now because that the Harris campaign spending
09:39money on commercials going exactly after that, saying that, you know, the Trump tariffs are
09:42going to increase costs and be worse than inflation.
09:45And I understand that that is the school of thought that is the classical economic school
09:49of thought on that.
09:50There's lots of minted PhDs to prove all that.
09:53But there is a segment of Donald Trump voters who just don't believe that.
09:55They say, hey, that that's the policy that got us here to try something else.
10:00And also, there's the whole aspect of Donald Trump uses tariffs as an attack mechanism,
10:04right?
10:05Go after China.
10:06Go after something that will make America stronger.
10:07But to me, it's the most beautiful.
10:08It's not so much about the tariffs, it's more about the strongman and I'm doing something
10:12about the economy.
10:13I'm doing something about American jobs that I think people like.
10:17Look, it's an issue that 20 years ago, both the Democratic and Republican presidential
10:22candidate would be on the same page on this.
10:24But this is one of those where they're just not.
10:26And it's creating some interesting divides among the electorate.
10:28Certainly, certainly it is.
10:30Look, early voting numbers are already starting to come in and we are seeing Republican numbers
10:35higher in some places than in years past.
10:38We know that recently Democrats have been more likely to vote early and by mail.
10:43But, you know, ever since 2020, Republicans have made that a major focus, I should say,
10:48since after the 2020 election.
10:50Ironic, because we know that the former president during that election was speaking out against
10:55those voting techniques, but has now embraced them.
10:59Scott, is there any way for Democrats to close this gap in these areas where we're seeing
11:04it narrow?
11:05Yeah, I think the best way to close the gap is we need more days early.
11:10We're still early.
11:11Look, right now, my best guess is we think there's gonna be about 140, 145 million total
11:16turnout nationwide.
11:18Our current model and estimate says that about 70 million of those people will vote early.
11:23We're only about three to four million people nationwide have voted early already.
11:27And so any sort of lead or deficiency you see among the parties in some of these states,
11:32we're just way too early to make an assessment.
11:36What I do know is more Republicans are choosing to vote early because that's what the RNC
11:41and Donald Trump himself has pushed.
11:43And when we look at who has returned, we're looking at people who have returned ballots
11:46who normally would vote on election day.
11:49And so what we're really looking for is people returning ballots who haven't voted before,
11:53because that means that Donald Trump or Harris is expanding their base and getting new voters
11:58to the polls.
11:59Right now, we're just seeing people who would normally vote on election day voting early.
12:04But we still got tens of millions of early votes to go and a lot of trends to follow.
12:08Again, by this time next week, I bet we're going to have 10 to 15 million people voted
12:13early and we'll be able to kind of read the tea leaves a little bit more with more data
12:16like that.
12:17Yeah.
12:18Yep.
12:19It's certainly changing every day.
12:20And I'm sure it'll be a horse race when it comes to early voting as well.
12:23Scott Tranter, thank you so much for joining us today.
12:26Thanks for having me.
12:28And that's it for What's America Thinking.
12:29I'm Julia Manchester.
12:31Come back next week.
12:32Be sure to like, share and subscribe to The Hill's YouTube channel.