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00:00A doubleheader of Monday Night Football for the third week in the last four to end out another week in the NFL.
00:07Week 7 comes to a close tonight with two games. DRS, we had a couple of early starts in the first two Monday Night Football doubleheaders of this season.
00:17It's a little bit later of a start tonight.
00:20A regularly scheduled game that begins at around 8.15 p.m. Eastern time in Tampa between the Buccaneers and the Ravens.
00:28And one out in the desert in Arizona that will kick a little bit after 9 p.m. Eastern.
00:34Let's start with that first one between the Buccaneers and the Ravens.
00:38In this matchup, Baltimore on a four game win streak after a winless 0-2 start is a 3.5 point road favorite against the Bucs.
00:47Total 49 and a half. Donnie, what are your early thoughts for this game to kick off the doubleheader of Monday Night Football?
00:54A lot of respect for the Baltimore Ravens going on the road in favor by 3.5 points, so we'll start there.
00:59But I do think we're finally starting to kick in what makes the Ravens such a dominant team
01:03and why I think they have a legitimate chance to win the AFC Championship and head to a Super Bowl.
01:07Yes, they blew the game against Vegas to drop the 0-2, 26-23, unacceptable.
01:12Beat the Dallas Cowboys 28-25. Don't look at that score. That was a blowout victory.
01:16Beat the Buffalo Bills down 35-10, an absolute bust.
01:20Then you saw them come back against Cincinnati, a wild one.
01:22But then also, Washington last week, hey, beat a rookie quarterback.
01:25Washington looks like they're a pretty good offensive machine.
01:28They beat them by a touchdown, so we'll start right there at this point.
01:31For me, the Baltimore Ravens are the better football team.
01:33If I think they win, and I do, I'll be willing to lay the 3.5.
01:36We'll go into some other things outside of that, but my initial thoughts are let's move it towards the Ravens.
01:40I like the Ravens this year, and no surprise, four straight wins looking for five in a row.
01:46Closing number on FanDuel, 6.5. Consensus in the marketplace, 7 for a week ago in that Ravens matchup against the Commanders.
01:54So in this four-game win streak, either they have covered in all four or they're 3-0-1 against the number.
02:01Donnie, the flock has gone over in five of six games this year.
02:05We'll talk about the point total in just a moment.
02:08But I do want to highlight Tampa, a football team that is a winning football team at this moment.
02:14Also with a 4-2 record. It is the best record currently in the NFC South.
02:20And the Buccaneers have been an underdog twice this season, or three times rather.
02:25They have won outright in two, and in a game where they really coughed up an opportunity in overtime against the Falcons,
02:32they were unable to cover that game.
02:35But a team as a dog that is now 11-5 against the spread with Baker Mayfield as its starting quarterback,
02:42eight of those 11 covers, an outright victory.
02:46I actually think the Buccaneers keep this game within margin.
02:49I think it's close. I think it's a really good one on this Monday night in Tampa.
02:54So let's talk the offensive production.
02:57Total at 49.5 as we shared the flock over in five of six games this year.
03:03Not many better than the Ravens defending the run.
03:06Not anybody worse in the NFL than Baltimore defending the pass.
03:10The worst passing defense in the National Football League.
03:13Just how many points do we see tonight?
03:16Yeah, I think we do get a chance to see that 49.5 go over.
03:19Here's the one thing I'm leery about.
03:21If we had a full go Tampa Bay team, you'd say, you know what, they should be able to get after that secondary for the Ravens.
03:26But that one key injury, Mike Evans popping up on that injury report with that hamstring and struggling with this week,
03:31missing some practices, that can go at any point.
03:33Which means it's going to be up to Chris Godwin to sort of change the game and not have his counterpart on the other side.
03:39I do think that will hurt.
03:40Coming in from a Baltimore perspective, they're coming in relatively healthy.
03:43And also the reemergence back in of Mark Andrews, which is such a big part of their double tight end sets along with Isaiah Likely.
03:49But if you just continue to use the formula that has gotten here over the past four weeks,
03:53let Lamar Jackson spin it about 20, 20 to five times a game.
03:56Let him run about seven to eight times a game.
03:58Give it off to Derek Henry.
04:00Everything opens up in your passing game and your running game.
04:03And the entire playbook would be available to you there.
04:05That's the way I'm going to operate at this one.
04:07I'm not so sure how much that Buccaneers team can slow this football team down.
04:10Also, when you look at some of the games that the Bucs played, inexplicable losses to Denver, 26 to seven.
04:15Yes, you beat the Philadelphia Eagles.
04:16But let's remember the Philadelphia Eagles with no wide receivers in that game to think of heading into their bye week the next week.
04:22They got slaughtered and didn't even show up.
04:24And I do give them credit because they did beat Detroit Lions on the road.
04:26But if you remember, Ben, that's the game where the Lions repeatedly went down the field
04:30and just couldn't score touchdowns in the red zone going one for seven.
04:33So there are some opportunities to score some points here.
04:35And what do we love about Baker Mayfield also?
04:37He's a big game player, which means if he runs, excuse me, the plays there from the run, he will do that.
04:42But more importantly, if it's double coverage to make a big play, he'll throw it.
04:45If it's double coverage to get an interception to turn the tide, he'll do that too.
04:49The Saints couldn't get out of their own way for so many times here with Spencer Rattler the past two weeks.
04:52We see that final score 51 to 27 with a Spencer Rattler started game for New Orleans.
04:57There is a chance that this game can really get high scoring.
05:00And it depends on what Baker Mayfield wants to do.
05:02Touchdown passes and interceptions.
05:04Yeah, this game goes over.
05:06Yeah. And when you look at the Buccaneers secondary, fourth worst in the NFL as well,
05:12should be a big night for both quarterbacks.
05:14253 and a half, the passing yards prop for Baker.
05:18A little bit less than that for Lamar Jackson, 229 and a hook.
05:21But we know how efficient and solid he has been both utilizing his legs and his arm.
05:28Derek Henry, 85 and a half is his passing or rushing yards prop at this moment.
05:33A number DRS.
05:34He has been over in four consecutive games with at least 92 yards on the ground
05:40and all four victories for the Ravens.
05:43He has scored in every game this year.
05:45He's had multiple rushing scores twice in the last four for the flop.
05:49Now Tampa's not terrible against the run top half of the NFL in defending it.
05:55They have a very tall task tonight to try to slow down Derek Henry,
06:00who even at the age of 30 has really showed in Baltimore why he is known as the king.
06:06Absolutely. And you expect nothing less than greatness because the key to him is it's not,
06:11hey, let's say again, save him for the playoffs here.
06:13He's a volume running back.
06:15The more carries you give him, the stronger he gets in the less than defensive linemen,
06:19linebackers, quarterbacks and safeties to tackle him,
06:22which is why you see a big man moving that fast.
06:24Why does he get a chance to move that fast?
06:26People like making business decisions to be able to tackle him and say,
06:29you know what, I could get to the other side of the field, but I'm just going to stay out.
06:32I don't want to end up being a poster where this guy stiff arms me down.
06:35So I do think this game is going to be weighed just upon how Baltimore does on offense.
06:39If they're crisp, as they've been over the past four to five games, Ben,
06:42they should have no problems getting in the high 20s,
06:44which means Baker Mayfield is absolutely going to have to respond here
06:47and throw a lot of passes that maybe he didn't want to throw,
06:50which is again, both good and bad for the total.
06:53But typically touchdowns and interceptions means great things for the total.
06:57Chris Godwin has been Baker's top target this year.
07:00He's got the highest receiving yards prop of the game, 74 and a half.
07:04As you mentioned, a hamstring injury and some concern around the status of Mike Evans.
07:09He does have a prop still available on FanDuel.
07:13That's a good sign that maybe he is going to play.
07:16The nightcap of the doubleheader on Monday.
07:19Our second Monday Night Football game of this doubleheader to end out week number seven
07:24takes place in the desert, 9 p.m. Eastern time.
07:27The scheduled kick between the Cardinals and the Chargers.
07:31L.A., a very slight road favorite, laying a point and a half in the desert against the Cards.
07:36Total at 44 and a half.
07:39The Chargers back off the bye last week.
07:42Another win and a cover as a road favorite in Denver.
07:47DRS, when you look at this game between the Chargers and the Cardinals,
07:50what is your first lean?
07:52My first lean always is going to be towards the Chargers
07:54because I just love a good hardball coach team.
07:56You know they're not going to turn the football over.
07:58They're going to use that ground game to their advantage.
08:00And there's a lot of things that you say, well, what are we going to get Arizona?
08:04The young wide receiver has just had a concussion.
08:06How effective is he going to be?
08:07Is James Conner going to be effective late in the game if they're down a touchdown or more?
08:10And also Kyler Murray, let's be more explosive in this passing game.
08:13And with your legs here, that makes that offense go.
08:15But I look at the lineup here, which is what we're expecting for the Chargers.
08:18A lot of guys banged up.
08:20Quinton Johnson, doubtful with the ankle injury, didn't practice all week long.
08:23You take a look at Ladd McConkie, still questionable with the hip injury.
08:26Only limited practices all week long.
08:28You're looking at Joey Bosa, obviously not going to play in this one.
08:30And so, so, and so forth.
08:32So even though that this team is banged up coming in,
08:34don't you still trust the Chargers a little bit more?
08:37And it is showing them respect as being a road favorite at minus one and a half
08:40because why? J.K. Dobbins is going to get that football 15 plus times tonight.
08:45He's going to score a touchdown.
08:46He's going to run for five yards per carry
08:48because that's what you do against the Arizona Cardinals defense.
08:51Usually I say to myself, and again, entering into the season, Ben, right?
08:54Chargers defense, Chargers offense.
08:55I want to be involved in every single game
08:57because I think the offense for the Cardinals can score points.
09:00I don't think the defense is going to be very good.
09:02That 44 and a half sticks out because it's not the MO for the Chargers to say,
09:06Hey, we're up 14-7 in the third quarter.
09:08Let's open it up and really try to blow this football team away.
09:11Jim Harbaugh is going to say, we're up 14-7.
09:14Let's make this game 17-7 and really turn the screws on the Arizona Cardinals.
09:18So I do have a slight lean towards the under,
09:20but I am looking for the Chargers to win this football game
09:22and based on their ground attack to control the clock as well.
09:26DRS, it's not a surprise to lean toward the under.
09:29Last week, 23-16, the win for the Chargers in Denver
09:34trickles over the total of 35, 36 and a half pregame.
09:38It was the first over of the year for LA
09:42and it barely goes over in a game that did not exceed 40 total points.
09:48That is the Boltz recipe.
09:50And although some of the playmakers on the outside might be a little bit injured,
09:54the offensive line used that early bye week for Los Angeles to get healthier.
10:00And the Cardinals are the third worst rushing defense in the NFL,
10:03allowing 153 yards per game.
10:06Again, all of these trends highlighting why the Chargers
10:10actually hold some key advantages tonight.
10:13And again, I lean under 44 and a half like you, DRS,
10:17because if LA plays the game, they want to.
10:20Justin Herbert throws it 25 times.
10:22J.K. Dobbins runs it 25 times.
10:27That's how the Chargers want to win.
10:3020-13, 20-16, we'll see you later.
10:33We head out of Arizona with a 4-2 record.
10:37But that's the path and the recipe in the game plan for LA.
10:42Of course, Arizona trying not to let that be the case.
10:45And the Cardinals, DRS, since the start of last year,
10:48an underdog in 21 of 23 total games with Jonathan Gannon as the head coach.
10:53They've been a solid underdog-covering team
10:55when not much has been expected.
10:5711-10 against the spread.
10:59Yeah, exactly.
11:00And also, by the way, from an Arizona Cardinals perspective
11:03here in this game for me, Ben, if they want to stay close,
11:05it has to be Kyler Murray.
11:07Look at the last football game against Green Bay.
11:09They got hammered.
11:10Seven carries for 14 yards.
11:11The game against San Francisco, which they won,
11:13seven carries for 83 yards.
11:14They got crushed by Washington.
11:15One carry for three yards.
11:17You stay close to Detroit, five carries for 45 yards.
11:20You beat the Rams, five carries for 59 yards.
11:22Do you see the pattern that's shaping up at this point right now?
11:24It's going to have to be one based on your starting quarterback
11:27making plays, keeping plays alive, but also being explosive out of the pocket.
11:31So maybe the Chargers have to use a spy,
11:33which is going to open up the passing game here.
11:35You have a wonderful tight end on the Arizona Cardinals.
11:38Can they use them enough in this football game in Trey McBride
11:41to say, you know what, seven catches, 60-plus yards in this game,
11:44and a touchdown to see what happens?
11:45Because the one thing we do know is you're looking at the spread, Ben.
11:48You're not getting one that goes, I think they can keep it close in this game.
11:51That's why I'll take the points.
11:52No, you're betting them to win the football game.
11:54The question is, if that football game is to be won,
11:56it has to be on the shoulders of your quarterback here for Arizona.
11:59Not necessarily the case for Herbert and the Chargers.
12:02Much more of a team concept in spreading the football around
12:04and handing the football off.
12:05He has to win this game.
12:06Kyler Murray has to be the star tonight if the Cardinals want to win.
12:10Two eleven and a half is his passing yards.
12:12Prop, not overly large, but he's been under that in four of six games.
12:17Marvin Harrison Jr. exited last week for Arizona in concussion protocol.
12:22Props are listed, expected to play tonight.
12:25We'll hear from Dr. David Chow, the pro football doc,
12:28with some of the field views on sixscore.com
12:30for the doubleheader on Monday in our third hour, which comes up next.
12:36We'll talk to you after the break, live right here on The Early Line.
12:39Live right here on this Monday morning on The Early Line on Sports Grid.
12:43It is our third and final hour here across the Spiz Grizz network.
12:47He is Donnie Redside. I am Ben Stevens.
12:49But so much more to dive into a doubleheader of NFL action on this Monday night
12:55to end out week number seven in Tampa.
12:58It's the Bucs and the Ravens.
13:00Then we head out to the desert, 9 p.m. Eastern time,
13:03kick in Glendale between Arizona, that being the Cardinals, and the L.A. Chargers.
13:09So, of course, we need to hear from the people.
13:12We'll get the prop perspective for this Monday night.
13:15And how about this little treat, DRS?
13:17Tomorrow, the opening night of an NBA regular season.
13:21We'll take an early look at the Tuesday night doubleheader
13:24to kick off the campaign in the association in just a little bit as well.
13:29A new season on the brink for us here.
13:32And also, we love the NBA because it's night to night.
13:34It's a lot of good, fun stuff.
13:36It's just a shame that nobody pays attention to it
13:38except Kevin Walsh until after January the 1st.
13:41We'll get through it. We'll have some fun. We'll do it.
13:45Was that necessary?
13:47Was that necessary?
13:49I had to get the shot.
13:50Look, if I'm going to be a commissioner, I got to have stands out here, Ben,
13:53that I can campaign on.
13:54That's one of my campaigns here.
13:55We don't start the NBA to it.
13:57Christmas Day is the perfect jump-off point to the NBA,
14:00and then the NFL goes, no, it's our day again.
14:02So maybe Boxing Day, I think they call it, December 26th,
14:05maybe that's the perfect day for the NBA to start.
14:07How about that?
14:09You're going to make Boxing Day?
14:11You're going to go to a boxing system?
14:13I want to say it's U.K.
14:15Who does Boxing Day?
14:17You're right.
14:18I don't even think they box here.
14:20It's just like you get boxes or you actually go out in the streets
14:23and just like, you know what, let's get a fair one out here in these streets.
14:26You know what I mean?
14:27Now that would be a holiday.
14:28Imagine Boxing Day where you don't know if you leave your house,
14:32you've got to square off multiple times legally in public.
14:36That's a good one. That's a good day.
14:38It's like a little razzmatazz every time you hang out in the streets.
14:42Where would he go on Boxing Day?
14:44We don't know. We don't know.
14:46Try to find the guy who stole his car.
14:48Anyway.
14:52Damn kids.
14:53That was fun.
14:55He doesn't think they're kids.
14:57We could talk about that for the entirety of this third hour if we needed to.
15:01Let's hear from the people, though, as we get ready for this Monday night
15:05to end out week seven of the NFL season.
15:08First up in Tampa, the Bucs, a three and a half point home dog
15:12against a Ravens team on a four game win streak.
15:14Then out to the desert, the Cardinals and the Chargers,
15:18just a short one and a half point spread in favor of the Bolts.
15:21We had to ask the people, DRS, two leg money line parlay.
15:25Who wins them both?
15:26That was the question in Fade the Public.
15:35So DRS, you were not here on Friday,
15:38but the Fade the Public question to the people was about Major League Baseball
15:42with a doubleheader who would win game five between the Dodgers and the Mets
15:46and game four between the Yanks and the Guardians.
15:48Most of the public, overwhelmingly so.
15:51More than 50 saying Dodgers, Yankees.
15:54The Yankees held up their end of the bargain.
15:57Of course, the Dodgers did not beat the Mets at Citi Field, forcing a game six.
16:02So the public, overall this year, six and seven.
16:07Can they get back to 500 with a two leg money line parlay on Monday Night Football?
16:12They're going to shock.
16:14Ravens, Chargers, two road favorites tonight.
16:1748% of the vote.
16:19DRS, you Fade the Public?
16:21Look, no, I'm not.
16:22I actually went with the public, and it sounds crazy to do this,
16:25but we're not talking about two games, Ben.
16:27Like, hey, seven and a half point favorites each.
16:29It's like, yes, the Ravens and the Chargers will win.
16:31We're also taking a look at two ball clubs that the public is betting on,
16:34and so is myself, being on the road here, expected to win these road games here,
16:39being the Ravens and the Chargers.
16:40Plus 185 is a decent price, but this one's a little bit tougher than usual
16:44because baseball, like, hey, it's minus 170, minus 160, minus 150.
16:48You've got to decide an advantage.
16:50You're still getting plus money here because, as we said,
16:52one and a half point line, three and a half point line keeps it close here.
16:55But I can see where the public and myself went with the Ravens and the Chargers.
16:59I just think both of these teams are the better football teams, but it's the NFL.
17:03Boy, it's hard to win games on the road,
17:05and these teams aren't decided favorites in either one of these road games here.
17:11So, DRS, I'm slightly feigning the public.
17:13I actually selected the Bucs and the Chargers.
17:16I think Tampa's got something tonight.
17:18They've been a great underdog with Baker Mayfield, three and a half point spread,
17:22even if the Buccaneers do not win outright.
17:25I do believe they can cover that number.
17:28But you are right.
17:29These are not monumental spreads.
17:30I'm not saying the Bucs plus six and a half
17:32because I think they can keep this game within four or six.
17:36It is just three and a half.
17:39If you like the Cardinals to win outright,
17:41you're not really getting much value from a spread perspective.
17:44You can just look at that money line.
17:46And, again, Arizona, a good underdog in their time with Jonathan Gannon as well, 11 and 10, A-T-S.
17:55Here we are in these two spots where DRS, the public,
17:58is trying to pick both of those money line winners.
18:01If Baltimore wins, as you anticipate, and even covers,
18:05that would be five straight wins for the flock.
18:08And more than likely, if they do cover, we'll give them the benefit.
18:11We'll say they have covered in all five,
18:13or at least they have not covered in any of the five wins,
18:17if you want to say they closed as a touchdown favorite against Washington
18:22and did end up pushing that game in a touchdown victory.
18:26But that would still, to me, look really, really solid for the Ravens.
18:31And, Donnie, although Kansas City is the last undefeated team in the National Football League,
18:36you would almost have to think that Baltimore is right there on the same tier
18:41that we might see maybe not a Super Bowl rematch,
18:43as we did yesterday between the Chiefs and the Niners,
18:47but an AFC Championship game rematch more than likely at the end of this season.
18:51No, no doubt about it, because we're talking about four straight wins here
18:54after the first two losses of the season.
18:55Cowboys, Bills, Bengals, and Commanders handle your business.
18:58You go on the road tonight as a slight favorite of the Buccaneers and beat them, Ben.
19:01Guess what? You then go on the road against the Browns, the lowly Browns,
19:04who even knows who's coming out for that football game next.
19:06Then you take a look at the Broncos.
19:08More quality, but you got them at home.
19:09The Bengals, we'll see where they're at, but you also have them at home,
19:12and you already beat them once.
19:13So you theoretically could go, all right, four-game streak turns into 5-6-7-8,
19:18and away you go.
19:19I'm interested to see what we get out of the Ravens tonight,
19:21but also the expectations for me aren't saying,
19:24hey, I don't know if they can do well on offense.
19:26No, they've been really good on offense.
19:28Stick to the same formula that brought you here in those four games,
19:31and I think the Ravens will be fine.
19:33I'm very excited, as it was before the season, for the Ravens.
19:36A little bit down after the 0-2, but they righted that ship quickly
19:39by doing the principles that work for that team.
19:41Not a ton of arm usage for Lamar Jackson.
19:44He can be special with 25 passes or less.
19:46He can be special on the ground.
19:47Same thing with Derrick Henry, and it looks like some of these young kids
19:50at wide receiver can step up there, including Zay Flowers.
19:53And boy, if Mark Andrews can get back to being a top-five tight end in football,
19:57that's what we're looking forward to for the Ravens.
20:00Lamar Jackson thrown for more than 320 last week against the Commanders
20:04on only 26 attempts.
20:07We showed you his passing yards prop for tonight, 229.5.
20:11It's a number Lamar has gone over in four of six games,
20:15and he's looked pretty consistent and efficient in doing that.
20:20Baltimore DRS, minus 250.
20:22The favorites to win the AFC North.
20:24The Steelers, though, also 5-2.
20:27Just saw the playoff prices go up on the FanDuel Sportsbook.
20:30The Bengals, despite that 0-3 start,
20:33now favored at minus 120 to see the postseason.
20:38Again, the AFC North outside of Cleveland should be competitive here
20:42in the second half.
20:43Yeah, bad.
20:44Look, there's a lot of bad football teams mixed in,
20:46but also a lot of bad record-slash-decent talented football teams
20:50that can make a run.
20:52That's the fun part about it.
20:53It used to be you had the wannabes and the teams that just weren't going
20:57to be able to make it in, and then the really good football teams.
21:00But now you're seeing, look, 0-3 start.
21:02You can never recover from that.
21:03Now you're still basically a favorite to make the playoffs after an 0-3 start.
21:07It just tells you the talent that Cincinnati has,
21:09if they can get it together.
21:10I'm still skeptical.
21:11What a big game next week on the Bengals' schedule,
21:14going up against the Philadelphia Eagles.
21:15That could be a make-or-break game for them once again here.
21:18So good times.
21:19Every game's meaningful.
21:20Who would have thought it?
21:22DRS, we talked about it in the AFC that to start this year,
21:25we expected this conference to be highly competitive.
21:28You might need 10 or 11 wins, even a sniff, a wild-card berth.
21:31Half of the conference now, that most have finished Week 7,
21:35have a winning record.
21:37But of that half, eight teams, it includes teams like the Colts, above .500,
21:43the Broncos at .4 and .3, and these Chargers,
21:47who have a winning record in trying to stay above .500
21:50with a win tonight against the Cardinals in Arizona.
21:54A prompt perspective on this Monday for a doubleheader of NFL action
21:58to end out Week 7.
22:00Number seven, we call on the jack of all trades.
22:03It is SportsGrid's Tom Vecchio.
22:05Tom, as always, thank you for being here.
22:08How was your NFL Sunday?
22:10Was it prolific with the props?
22:12It was.
22:13It was a good day from the prop perspective.
22:14My fantasy teams are absolutely terrible.
22:17We have two Monday night games.
22:19Normally, I like to say, let's get in the mix tonight,
22:21but I think the one doing the most mixing tonight will be a Baker, as usual.
22:25Oh, I like that.
22:28That's a second consecutive appearance out of Vecchio,
22:31dropping a bar that Donny Rightside wishes he could spit a beat over.
22:35Vecchio, I love the way you're bringing the fire to start off these segments.
22:40All right, let's start with the first of two Monday night football games,
22:43a matchup of two teams at 4-2 each.
22:47In Tampa, the Buccaneers play host to the Ravens.
22:50Baltimore, Tom, on a four-game win streak
22:52and a three-and-a-half-point road favorite.
22:55High total, 49-and-a-half.
22:58Should be a really good game tonight between the Bucs and the Flock.
23:01How do you see it playing out?
23:02What are the numbers telling you?
23:04This is by far the more interesting game of the two tonight.
23:08We have two teams that I'm going to say are moving the ball on offense,
23:11and ultimately, I think they're struggling on defense.
23:13We look to the Ravens, and they've absolutely been trending up
23:15for the majority of the season after the first few weeks.
23:18Last week, they gave up some points to the Commanders.
23:20The week before, they're giving up points and yards to the Bengals.
23:23I think we're going to see some points tonight.
23:25That's the main thing that I'm focusing in on.
23:27We're going to see the ball move.
23:28We're going to see some players set overs on props.
23:30We're going to see some scoring.
23:31Obviously, I want everything to correlate that.
23:33I do think we're going to be in for a far more exciting game
23:36compared to the later ones.
23:38Start with points here, start with some yards here,
23:40some players that have high involvement in offenses that we'll get to,
23:43and I think they're going to be scoring.
23:44I think it can go a number of different ways.
23:46I think this game has the juice that we're looking for tonight.
23:49Let's get some juice out of the quarterback position here, Tom,
23:51because we do have two guys that like to put up some numbers.
23:54That's Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson.
23:55Passing props, 253.5 for Baker, 231.5 for Lamar.
23:59If you're looking at touchdown props, both guys listed at 1.5,
24:02minus 102 juice for Baker Mayfield, plus 102 for Lamar Jackson.
24:06How about the quarterbacks tonight, Tom?
24:08Going to overs on Lamar is always tough because he can have one, run one in.
24:14Derrick Henry has two, whatever it might be.
24:16Ultimately, I think the Ravens are going to be slightly out ahead
24:18as we've seen the Bucs' defense kind of struggle.
24:21They gave up 27 points to a rookie quarterback in Spencer Rattler.
24:24If the Ravens can move the ball effectively,
24:26I think we're going to see the Bucs in the spot where they need to pass the ball.
24:30I have far more interest when it comes to Baker props.
24:32Ultimately, Baker is like a player in my mind that's going to go down swinging.
24:35He may have some interceptions, but he could have three touchdowns,
24:38two interceptions, and 300 yards.
24:39I actually like Baker a little bit more when it comes to his passing yards,
24:43his passing touchdowns, and that's kind of where I'm leading things.
24:46I do have some interest when it comes to the Ravens' skill players,
24:49position players, though.
24:50And, Tom, I think there's a lot of thought into that,
24:53that both quarterbacks could throw for a ton,
24:55but of course that then benefits the guys catching the actual footballs tonight
25:00because we have two of the four worst passing defenses through six weeks in the NFL.
25:05The Bucs, the fourth worst passing defense.
25:07Baltimore, the best rushing defense, but the worst passing defense,
25:12giving up nearly 25 points per game as well.
25:15This year.
25:16But let's start with the Ravens.
25:18Lamar Jackson's new top target might it be the second year pro,
25:22Zay Flowers, more than 100 yards in each of the last two weeks for the flock.
25:27Is that where you start your focus for this Baltimore offense tonight?
25:31It has to be.
25:33And as I always say,
25:34players that are this involved in an offense are going to score touchdowns.
25:38And we have Zay Flowers who hasn't scored a touchdown since week two,
25:41sitting at plus 155.
25:43So I like him for a touchdown.
25:44I like him for over 16 and a half yards.
25:46He leads the team in nearly every meaningful category outside of red zone.
25:50Targets here.
25:51Here's a 28.4% targets here.
25:52The next highest on the players Rashad Bateman at 15.4%.
25:55We're seeing 12 and nine targets over the last two weeks,
25:58over a hundred yards in each of the last two weeks.
26:00Like you said, and he's not scoring.
26:01I said this about a lot of it before.
26:03I'll say this time and time again,
26:04about basically any player that is a top target option on a team.
26:07And they're simply not scoring that's game script.
26:09Sometimes we saw him have over a hundred yards in the first half last week,
26:12and he didn't end up scoring.
26:13That happens.
26:14I will buy into Zay Flowers at plus 155 in a game where we could see 60
26:19points tonight.
26:20If we're looking from a running back perspective here,
26:22if you're from the Ravens, obviously it's Derek Henry, 85 and a half yards.
26:25It's a high number.
26:26He's going to get the football, but the question comes from me, Tom,
26:29more from a Tampa Bay side of things.
26:31You have Rashad White coming back into the equation.
26:33Bucky Irvin has looked good.
26:34And also the emergence of Sean Tucker.
26:35How would you play the ground game here?
26:37At least the running backs from Tampa Bay.
26:39You have to pick your spot and you have to be like,
26:42committed to that spot because not all three of them are going to have big
26:45games, right?
26:46That's just simply what it comes down to.
26:47We're not going to see all of them hit their overs.
26:49I mean, unless the game is 70 or 80 points,
26:51the only that's like players are not all going to hit their overs.
26:53Personally.
26:54I think Bucky Irvin is the best of the bunch.
26:56White.
26:57He's had a struggle.
26:58He's coming back from injury.
26:59Sean Tucker,
27:00I think is the wildcard because if Tucker has a big game,
27:02that means Rashad White is doing absolutely nothing.
27:04So I think you have to pick your spot.
27:06And for me,
27:07it's going to be Bucky Irvin combined rushing plus receiving both of the
27:10rookie running backs,
27:11put up a ton of numbers last week against new Orleans.
27:15Vecchio will continue to look at that first game,
27:17but let's go to the second game.
27:19Now for just a moment,
27:21you thought more scoring for the opening game of the night in Tampa,
27:24maybe not as exciting for the second game,
27:27starting at 9.
27:28P.m.
27:29Eastern time out in the desert.
27:30It's the Cardinals hosting the chargers LA,
27:33a slight road.
27:34Favorite total at 44 and a half lowest total of the year for the cards
27:39might be the highest total of the season for LA.
27:43What do you expect in this game out in the desert?
27:46I'm expecting a lack of scoring and,
27:48you know,
27:49we have some good,
27:50deep,
27:51good defense on the charger side of things.
27:52And ultimately these teams don't know how to sustain drives.
27:54The chargers are dead last in the league with 32.7 seconds per play.
27:59And both the chargers and the Cardinals are in the bottom seven league.
28:01When it comes to plays per game,
28:03they're not moving the ball.
28:04We know what the chargers are doing this season,
28:06right?
28:07This has been their plan the entire off season.
28:08They traded away,
28:09Keenan Allen,
28:10they traded away,
28:11Mike Williams.
28:12They're going to run the ball this season.
28:13And it means Herbert is not putting up these prolific numbers that we saw
28:15from him in years past.
28:16And we have seen the Cardinals offense for the times.
28:18Yes,
28:19they're getting,
28:20getting Marvin Harrison,
28:21Jr.
28:22Back.
28:23So I expect a,
28:24some amount of passing from the Cardinals simply because they have to,
28:25but we have good defense on the charger side of things.
28:26So if these teams can't sustain play us,
28:28Kansas thing drives,
28:29we're not going to see a whole lot of scoring.
28:31We're going to see a slow grinded out game where they're milking the
28:33clock.
28:34I expect the chargers to have the slight edge and a lack of excitement
28:37overall.
28:38Kyler,
28:39Mary,
28:40Justin Herbert,
28:41that he's starting quarterbacks in this matchup to 12 and a half is the
28:43passing prop for Kyler,
28:44Mary one 96 and a half for Justin Herbert,
28:47touchdown props.
28:48You're getting some pretty good numbers.
28:49Both of these quarterbacks,
28:50Tom over one and a half,
28:51but look at these prices,
28:52both at plus one 44 to throw two touchdowns or more.
28:56How do we approach the quarterback market site in game?
28:58Number two,
28:59you know,
29:00frankly,
29:01I think it's kind of the same situation where I think Murray would go
29:03down swinging.
29:04I don't think they'll run the ball too much with Connor.
29:06If they fall too far behind,
29:07he has the big playability with Marvin Harrison,
29:09junior back.
29:10So I kind of like him over one and a half touchdowns.
29:12I think that's certainly viable tonight.
29:13You know,
29:14frankly,
29:15from a Herbert perspective,
29:16I like him under 18 at completions.
29:17He'd been over this number one time this season.
29:20And that was last week.
29:21And I think that's just kind of a game script thing.
29:23They got so far out of head,
29:24so far out ahead against Denver,
29:25that they were kind of moving the ball with ease.
29:27It's just not a spot.
29:28And it's just not their offensive play calling.
29:30They have a pass play percentage that is under 50%.
29:33They're not passing at a high volume this season.
29:35So I like Herbert under 18 and a half.
29:37Again,
29:38you want to take Murray over yards just because you think they'll be
29:40playing from behind.
29:41I think that's totally fine tonight.
29:4227 and a half.
29:44The attempts brought for Justin Herbert,
29:46a number he has been over under,
29:47excuse me,
29:48in four of five games this year.
29:51I believe if I did my math correctly in the first four years of
29:54Herbert's career in Los Angeles,
29:56he was under 30 attempts four times in four years in total.
30:01It is a complete change of game script.
30:04So does that mean we look at JK Dobbins as we round out your top
30:08props for this Monday night double header?
30:10It certainly does.
30:12And ultimately I think Dobbins will have a big role as he had,
30:14but again,
30:15under 17 and a half attempts,
30:16he's been over this mark one time.
30:18And that was last week when they were up 23 to nothing versus Denver.
30:21And again,
30:22the circle's back to what I said,
30:23they are dead last in the league when it comes to seconds per play.
30:25And they do not have a lot of plays per game,
30:27both teams in the bottom seven of the league.
30:29So he can be effective.
30:30He's rushing for 90 plus yards,
30:31a hundred plus yards in the first two weeks of the season,
30:33but they're not running the ball.
30:35They're not running a lot of plays per game.
30:36So he breaks off these big runs and then they've slowed down,
30:38milk the clock.
30:39Tom Vecchio,
30:41as always,
30:42we appreciate the time.
30:43Did we get the Kate Aughton,
30:44by the way?
30:45Did you mention Kate Aughton?
30:46Yeah,
30:47Kate Aughton's the guy.
30:48We,
30:49we have the,
30:50we have,
30:51have allowed 436 receiving yards at 10 ends.
30:53That's the second most in the league.
30:54So it kind of circles back to,
30:55again,
30:56what I said,
30:57Baker's going to throw the ball just because the Ravens are giving up
30:58passing yards.
30:59They may be playing from behind.
31:00I think Evans and Godwin are totally fine tonight,
31:02but I like that Aughton numbered over 36 and a half.
31:04Under the number last week against New Orleans over in three straight prior
31:09Vecchio,
31:10as always,
31:11the proper respect to the cheetah.
31:12We'll see you later on the sports grid network,
31:14more on the early linebackers.
31:15When there's a double header of Monday night football,
31:18we need to make it a triple,
31:19a triple option live right here on this Monday on the early line on sports
31:24grid,
31:25DRS,
31:26before we dive into our picks for both games on this Monday night,
31:29does it ever bum you out that based on your schedule,
31:32having to work late night,
31:33Monday and Thursday to make sure that people have every in-game live
31:37betting opportunity for those marquee match-ups that you're no longer a
31:41part of the tummy,
31:43the pick six.
31:44And instead,
31:45you have to give out picks at a triple option.
31:47I feel the pressure is off at that point.
31:49And like,
31:50it's a little bit more like I'm in like the shade.
31:52If that makes some sense where people have to now seek me out as opposed to
31:55say like,
31:56Hey,
31:57I was expecting to get those six pixel and says,
31:58so you know what?
31:59We'll give them out to the people.
32:00We'll let them eat all weekend long.
32:01So,
32:02oh,
32:03I don't mind it.
32:04I don't mind.
32:05Listen,
32:06I don't like to toot my own horn because I missed plenty more than I make,
32:08but I did go five for six and my pick six.
32:10Wow.
32:11This weekend.
32:13Had it over,
32:14over two,
32:1541 and a half passing yards,
32:16your money back,
32:17but he was refunded.
32:18Come on,
32:19refund it.
32:20Mario threw for more than 200.
32:22Daniels.
32:23I don't know how many he ended up with.
32:24I think he was two for two for six.
32:26So it should have been,
32:27should have been something.
32:28Anyway.
32:29I'm going to start.
32:30Let's start a book together here.
32:32Can we get bonded and license here where we can say,
32:34all right,
32:35if my starting quarterback goes down,
32:36you automatically get the backup.
32:37I mean,
32:38come on.
32:39That's for the people,
32:40man.
32:41You know,
32:42I've dealt a lot with sports book operators to make sure that you were alive
32:44and legal.
32:45I am waiting for state.
32:46You need to be placing wagers.
32:47You would almost.
32:49I love the brand new sports book,
32:50right?
32:51Great sponsor of this show.
32:52I thought that should have put you to the front of the line.
32:54That's the only thing I'll say.
32:56Six,
32:57six pictures,
32:58debit cards,
32:59licenses,
33:00you know,
33:01written notes from my parents finally got at work.
33:03They work.
33:04We're back in though.
33:05All they needed to do was watch one episode of the early line and they
33:07would have seen that Donnie right side is for real.
33:10All right,
33:11let's get ready.
33:12Very real.
33:13Let's get ready for the triple option here on this Monday.
33:16Our favorite side,
33:17total and prop from either of the two games on this Monday to end out
33:21week seven DRS,
33:23begin with your favorite side.
33:25We might be going head to head tonight,
33:26my friend.
33:27Yeah,
33:28I'm going to go three and a half.
33:29I'm going to lay that three and a half game.
33:30Number one,
33:31which I do think again is the game of the night,
33:32the Baltimore Ravens and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers AFC verse NFC.
33:35But as we always say,
33:36typically it's defense travels.
33:38We like to say,
33:39no running games,
33:40travel in the NFL.
33:41Lamar Jackson playing is good.
33:43Every bit as good as his MVP seasons right now.
33:46Finally,
33:47a true superstar running back in Derrick Henry,
33:49who is healthy and welcoming the volume change from week one to week two.
33:53The past four weeks here,
33:54he is getting as many touches as he needs in as many touchdowns as he can
33:58score.
33:59Zay flower stepping up here.
34:00Mark Andrews looks like he's getting better from that injury that he had,
34:03which was devastating last year.
34:04I'm going to take the Baltimore Ravens tonight.
34:06Simple Ben,
34:07right?
34:08I think they're going to win the game.
34:09I think they're going to win by more than three and a half.
34:11I'm going with the Ravens.
34:12So DRS,
34:13I like that look because Baltimore,
34:15for instance,
34:16has been playing so well this year.
34:17They've won four straight.
34:18They've covered perhaps in three or four of these four straight wins,
34:23but I'm going with the home team tonight,
34:25catching points.
34:26That being the Buccaneers.
34:27I think the bucks as an underdog,
34:29a spot.
34:30I always want to look at 11 and five against the spread with Baker Mayfield
34:35as the starting quarterback,
34:36since the start of last season,
34:38two and one,
34:39both straight up and against the number in three games as a dog this year,
34:44winning outright in their first two and coughing up.
34:47What would have been a golden opportunity before losing in overtime to the
34:51Falcons as a dog on a short week,
34:53Thursday night football game.
34:55So a little bit in direct competition here tonight,
34:58DRS,
34:59I'm going to take Tampa getting three and a half points.
35:02One of us will win.
35:04The other will not just how it's going to play out.
35:07I wonder if your co-hosts on NFL football in game live game day will be
35:12with you.
35:13Lockstep tonight.
35:14I don't know if they will,
35:15because I don't know if you're going to want to hear me for what four
35:17straight hours,
35:18four and a half hours of football tonight.
35:19Well,
35:20I tell them how bad their opinions are,
35:21particularly at the quarterback position.
35:23Leave it.
35:24Look smartest man in the room is the only wide receiver in the room.
35:27Remember that.
35:28Always remember that.
35:30All right.
35:31Favorite total of the night is where DRS.
35:33Over 49 and a half.
35:34Let's keep it with the Ravens and Buccaneers.
35:36What do you like about this?
35:37The Ravens offense has been spectacular.
35:39They'll be able to move the football against Tampa Bay,
35:41but Baker Mayfield was like the ultimate competitor,
35:44which,
35:45you know,
35:46if they're down,
35:47he's going to throw them right back into that football game.
35:48Hopefully look,
35:49if you're looking for a total at 49,
35:50they have to get there.
35:51You got to have Mike Evans healthy.
35:53You got to have him engaged because God went on one side and Evans on the
35:56other that can move the football against this Raven secondary.
35:58As long as they're both there.
36:00Evans checks out earlier.
36:01It's apparent that he's not healthy.
36:02That means that coverage rolls over to God when it makes it harder to move
36:05the football.
36:06But also I do think you need a balanced attack out of the Buccaneers,
36:09which you can get it.
36:10We just brought up.
36:11They have three legitimate running backs that they can go to you.
36:13And a couple of really good passing options out of the back there.
36:16If Baker Mayfield is on it tonight,
36:18let me see 250 plus passing yards.
36:21Let me see two touchdowns.
36:22Let me see two interceptions tonight,
36:24which would be so Baker Mayfield.
36:26We're going to get over that total.
36:27I just see points,
36:28two offenses that can get hot,
36:30two offenses that won't be saying like, Hey,
36:32let's slow down the tempo gear.
36:33Give me over 49 and a half and game.
36:35Number one.
36:36Yeah.
36:37DRS.
36:38I kind of agree with you as well.
36:39We've got two offenses that can be exposed through the air.
36:41The Ravens really good defending the run,
36:44but you would think that Baker and the Bucks will be throwing it a ton
36:47tonight.
36:48Two defenses,
36:49allowing more than 23 points per game.
36:51Each the Ravens nearly 25 points per game.
36:55My favorite total is the second game of the night under 44 and a half
37:00chargers have been under in four of five.
37:02This is the highest total they have seen this year.
37:05The Cardinals.
37:06This is the lowest total they have seen of the season.
37:09We know how the chargers want to do things.
37:11They're a road favorite in the desert.
37:13They're going to slow down the game.
37:15They're going to try to grind it out with the running game.
37:17Give me under 44 and a half.
37:20So DRS to the run game for the bolts.
37:22That's where you look for your favorite prop run game for the bolts.
37:26JK Dobbins.
37:27One thing we do know is you're banged up at wide receiver.
37:29And that's that head coach loves to get mean and nasty on that front
37:33line,
37:34which means fullbacks with their hand in the dirt and running backs
37:37pounding the football inside the five-yard line.
37:39JK Dobbins,
37:40anytime,
37:41touchdown vandal sports book,
37:43minus one 35 touchdown.
37:45Cha-ching.
37:46I like that look,
37:47Donnie.
37:48So,
37:49so much.
37:50I agree with what Becky was saying to me under of the attempts prop.
37:52And I think JK Dobbins has a big night.
37:54Oh,
37:55by the way,
37:56systematically,
37:57this favors the chargers.
37:58Arizona is the third worst rushing defense in the NFL.
38:01You would think advantage in favor of the chargers.
38:05I go to say flowers over 60 and a half receiving yards.
38:08Becky.
38:09Oh,
38:10laid it out.
38:11He's got 48 targets this year.
38:12He's had more than 110 receiving yards in each of the past two games.
38:15He's the only Ravens receiver tight end or otherwise with more than 27
38:20targets this season.
38:22And he's got 48 DRS.
38:24Enjoy NFL football.
38:25In game,
38:26live game day.
38:27Enjoy the money line.
38:28I'll talk to you on Thursday,
38:30my friend.
38:31I'll miss you.
38:32Have a good week.
38:33More on the early line on the other side.