NFL Week 1 Best Bets: Ravens vs Chiefs; Eagles vs Packers
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00:00Welcome back to Newswire, golf season is wrapping up,
00:02NFL season is getting ready to get started.
00:04Brady Cannon's got his eyes on both.
00:06We'll see if we can hit both here on the show.
00:08Brady, great to have you back here on Newswire.
00:11And look, I mean, we're almost here for the NFL season.
00:14Naturally, college is underway
00:15and some huge games this weekend, by the way.
00:17A lot of fun there.
00:18But, you know, Thursday night, next week,
00:20Friday night, next week, Sunday afternoon,
00:23Sunday night, Monday night,
00:25we got a lot of football ready to go here.
00:27Here we go.
00:28Yeah, it kind of kicks off this weekend
00:30right here in Las Vegas with LSU and USC.
00:33You mentioned the college football season underway.
00:36I'm fired up for that.
00:37The golf season winding down.
00:39Unfortunately, this last event is kind of a dud for me,
00:42the Tour Championship.
00:43You know, the Tour Championship's supposed to be
00:45for all the marbles and it's just anticlimactic.
00:49I like Xander, I think he's gonna get it done.
00:51He's really a horse for this course.
00:53But yeah, we're transitioning to football for sure
00:55and we're all fired up here.
00:57Like you mentioned there before you went to break, Craig,
01:00the contest show that we've got here
01:02airing on Sports Grid contest season
01:04is in the air in a fever pitch here in Las Vegas.
01:07So yeah, it's all coming together
01:09for the NFL to get started.
01:11Yeah, and a great game to start with on Thursday night.
01:13Of course, the Chiefs are gonna open up
01:15in the first game of the season.
01:17Three-point favorites though, that's not a lot
01:19over the Baltimore Ravens in game one.
01:21And look, if this was a Super Bowl,
01:22I think it'd be pretty easy to just say,
01:24grab your money line in the Chiefs
01:25and go about your business.
01:26But it is the first week of the season.
01:29Do you have any position early on the Chiefs
01:31or Ravens or the total in this?
01:33I have not made a bet yet on this game
01:36and I'm not sure if I will.
01:37I think there are some games I like a little better
01:40so far in week one.
01:43But there are some two and a halves out there still
01:46and quite a few of them really, Craig.
01:48If you're going to bet this game,
01:50I prefer the Chiefs side,
01:51but don't make a bad bet and lay the three.
01:54I think there are two and a halves you can find
01:56and maybe you'll find another two and a half
01:59before we get closer to game time.
02:00I think the Ravens are actually going
02:02to regress this season.
02:04You look at what they did.
02:05I mean, that game, the AFC Championship game
02:08against the Chiefs was one of the worst game plans
02:11I've ever seen.
02:12Everybody in the entire world knew that the Ravens
02:15with their fourth best rushing attack in the NFL,
02:17going against the 28th worst run defense in the NFL,
02:21were gonna run the ball down the Chiefs' throats, right?
02:24No.
02:24Monken decides to get cute and try and throw the ball
02:2760, 70% of the time.
02:29How'd that work out?
02:31And now you lose a lot of offensive starters
02:34and depth on that offensive line.
02:36I think wide receiver is still an issue.
02:38You know, Lamar Jackson, for the first time in a while,
02:41started every game that meant something
02:44for the Ravens last year.
02:45Now you hope that happens again, but will it?
02:48It has not necessarily been the case in years past.
02:51And then you look at also some of the numbers
02:54for the Ravens.
02:55They were plus 12 in turnover margin,
02:57plus 19 in sack margin, and plus four in penalty margin.
03:02Those things typically regress towards the mean.
03:05Derrick Henry, you know, it looks fancy on paper,
03:08but he's also 30 years old.
03:10He ain't what he used to was.
03:12I think things slip for the Baltimore Ravens.
03:15And we usually see this, where the Chiefs beat you
03:17when it counts, but then, you know,
03:19their opponent returns the favor in the regular season.
03:22I'd lay the two and a half if I could find it here
03:24with Kansas City.
03:25I think they improve actually, Craig.
03:28I think, I mean, last year was the year to get the Chiefs.
03:31You think about it, there was a time,
03:33six, eight weeks left in the season
03:35where they didn't look very good at all, right?
03:38And I think they're gonna be better this year.
03:40Yeah, I didn't realize,
03:41maybe Lamar Jackson didn't play in a game,
03:44but is that right?
03:45That the Chiefs haven't played the Ravens
03:47in the regular season since 21?
03:48Is that accurate?
03:49It seems like a long time.
03:52I don't know if that's correct,
03:53but it feels like the Ravens beat them a few years ago,
03:57and it probably was 21 with Lamar Jackson.
04:00And they played, I wanna say, game one, game two,
04:02game three, it was very early in the season.
04:05And I think the Ravens got them in a real tight one.
04:08But I think the tables will be turned here.
04:10Kansas City, I talked about some of the numbers
04:13for the Ravens.
04:14Kansas City not only made the playoffs,
04:16but won the Super Bowl, being minus 11 in turnover margin
04:20and minus 23 in penalty margin.
04:23That's amazing.
04:24And you figure that's got to improve this coming season.
04:27Yeah, flips a little bit at the very least.
04:29I mean, those numbers are usually what regresses
04:32to the mean, as you said.
04:33All right, how do you handicap these overseas games?
04:35Because there's really no way of telling.
04:38I mean, sometimes these games aren't even talent-based.
04:40I mean, we just saw this past week,
04:42Georgia Tech beat FSU outright as a huge dog in Ireland.
04:46I'm sure that had something to do with it.
04:48The Eagles are two and a half point favorites
04:51because they have the better roster, I guess,
04:52but not by a lot.
04:54Green Bay played fantastic down the stretch last year.
04:56Eagles played horrendous down the stretch last year.
04:58Total of 48 and a half.
05:01Game in Brazil, different body clock.
05:03All those things are in the handicap,
05:06I suppose, for next Friday night.
05:08Yeah, I used to stay away from the London games 100%.
05:13And now it's become such commonplace in the NFL
05:17that you have to sometimes throw out
05:20the question mark about travel.
05:24Now, this one's obviously different, going to Brazil.
05:27And I think it is a factor.
05:30But just handicapping the game on paper
05:32and taking that out of the equation,
05:34the Eagles have taken some money here.
05:37I believe they were just a one-point favorite
05:39not that long ago, and now they've gone to two and a half.
05:41And I would kind of treat this one the same way, Craig.
05:44If I can lay less than a field goal,
05:46I would be on the favorite here.
05:48And I think it's a very similar reasoning.
05:50I think the Eagles are bound to improve
05:53off of that second half of the season last year
05:56where they were really awful.
05:57You know, you look at some of their numbers.
06:00They have Saquon in, they have Vic Fangio in.
06:03They add draft choices.
06:05I think the defense will be improved.
06:07Their net rest edge in the schedule goes from 25th.
06:11They had a brutal rest advantage on the schedule last year.
06:15They go from 25th in the league this year to second.
06:18And then their fumble luck the year before
06:20when they went to the Super Bowl,
06:22their fumble luck was 11th.
06:24They regressed last year to 22nd.
06:26I think all that sets them up for improvement this year.
06:29And I think they get started with a win here.
06:31Green Bay, I think one thing's going to regress for sure
06:35is they were incredibly efficient in the red zone.
06:38I think that will fall off.
06:39On the flip side, I think their defense gets better.
06:42They add a new coordinator.
06:44They draft very heavy on the defensive side,
06:47but their schedule gets more difficult this year.
06:49They play a number of better offensive teams this year.
06:52I think Green Bay remains about neutral
06:55with what they did last year.
06:57I think Philadelphia improves.
06:58I'd lay the two and a half in game one.
07:01When's the first podcast launch?
07:03When does it start?
07:04Well, it launched last Friday
07:06and episode number two is this Friday
07:08and every Friday thereafter for the rest of the season.
07:11All right, thanks Brady.
07:12I gotta download it.
07:13Have a great week.