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00:00I mean, let's get you set for Saturday, the first one in November, week number 10, somehow,
00:10some way already in this 2024 college football season.
00:14Now, Joe, I'm hoping for a great game in Happy Valley on Saturday at noon, Eastern Time kick
00:20between third-ranked Penn State and number four, Ohio State.
00:23The Buckeyes still a road favorite, laying three and a half points, total reflective
00:28of a Big Ten football game, 46 and a hook.
00:31I hope it is close.
00:33I hope it is decided by a single digit, maybe around a field goal.
00:38And we'll get to the breakdown, the X's and O's and the key matchups that will dictate
00:42the actual outcome.
00:44But shall we start with the narrative, my friend?
00:47Because ho, the narrative on Saturday for both of these head coaches in a monumental
00:56spot, by far the game much more important for Ryan Day and Ohio State than the Nittany
01:02Lions.
01:03Penn State is perfect this year.
01:06They are undefeated.
01:07They are 7-0.
01:09They are expected, as the odds show you, to lose this football game.
01:13If the Nittany Lions lose this one, and then win every other game on their schedule where
01:18they do not see Michigan, nor Indiana, nor Oregon, they're going to get into the college
01:23football playoff, despite the lack of overwhelmingly successful and marquee wins on the resume.
01:3011-1 Penn State, who might actually play in the Big Ten title game, even with the loss
01:35to Ohio State, is going to be a college football playoff team.
01:38The reason I put that to the side is because this game means everything to Ohio State.
01:44A team that entered this year, Joe, was self-proclaimed national championship or bust.
01:50Their aspirations, if they lose, a two-loss Ohio State team could get in, but they still
01:56have to play Indiana, and there's always the rivalry against Michigan.
02:00But it is not exactly a clear path.
02:04And if Ryan Day loses this football game against number three Penn State, he will be 2-7 against
02:11top five opponents in his six full seasons with the Buckeyes.
02:17That is not the standard expectation in Columbus.
02:21So then we go to James Franklin, who was 1-9 against Ohio State, and has lost seven consecutive
02:28against the Buckeyes.
02:29Then we go to James Franklin, Joe, who is 3-17 against eight top ten foes.
02:35A loss in this game will not look kind to either of the two coaches that will face off
02:41in State College on Saturday.
02:44And, well, throw all of that out the window, Ben, because it comes down to matchups, right?
02:50Ultimately, at the end of the day here, Ohio State having to travel here to take on a Penn
02:56State team that is maybe, quite honestly, maybe the best rushing defense in the country.
03:06And I say that because we just watched Ohio State, who has two of the most talented running
03:12backs in the country, running the ball behind Will Howard.
03:18Judkins and Henderson got shut down by Nebraska last week.
03:22They combined for 54 total yards on 20 carries.
03:27When they played Oregon, don't forget, again, outside of a 50-yard touchdown run, they had
03:3357 yards on 20 carries.
03:36And now you're going to take on, on the road, one of the best rush defenses in the country
03:40in Penn State, you're already having trouble rushing the ball.
03:44So what does that mean, Ben?
03:45That means Ohio State is going to have to rely on Will Howard to throw the ball on the
03:51road at Happy Valley in order to beat Penn State.
03:56And Penn State's offense isn't explosive by any means, but they stay on the field, they
04:01move the chains, and they wear down defenses.
04:05That's what they've been doing.
04:06The matchup favors Penn State in this.
04:10But to your point, you want me to put money on Franklin in a big game in this spot, even
04:17at home?
04:18Oh, my goodness.
04:19But make no mistake, the matchup favors Penn State.
04:22Yes, it does, Joe.
04:24Because Penn State this year, under former Indiana head coach Tom Allen, has not taken
04:29a step back on the defensive side of the football.
04:32They are top 10 in every single major stat category across the board, scoring defense
04:3814 points per game, total defense 267, passing defense a buck 74, rushing defense only 93
04:46yards.
04:47They were losing at the half against Wisconsin.
04:50Their quarterback, Drew Aller, had been injured late in the opening half in Madison on Saturday.
04:56Bo Pribula came out to start the second.
04:59And Penn State's defense shut down the Badgers in the second half.
05:05It was incredible.
05:07What they were able to do.
05:09Towie Walker, 22 carries for 59 yards for Wisconsin in that game.
05:16But a lot of it was in the opening half.
05:20Penn State gave up 51 yards on 13 plays in the third quarter.
05:26Penn State this year, Joe, in the third quarter, allows 2.6 yards per play.
05:30Penn State this year, Joe, has not allowed a single point in the third quarter, or three
05:35rather.
05:37And they had a pick six in the third quarter against the Badgers.
05:40The defense has scored more than it has allowed in the third quarter.
05:45And that's one of the confusing things for the Buckeyes.
05:48I thought Ohio State's rushing offense was going to be otherworldly this year.
05:53Will Howard, athletic guy, Quinn Sean Jenkins, and Travion Henderson with Chip Kelly calling
05:59a place 2007 Oregon.
06:03Here we go.
06:04When he was in UCLA, he was putting up nearly 200 yards per game on the ground.
06:08Top 20 last three years as the Bruins skipper in Westwood.
06:12Has not been overwhelmingly successful this season.
06:16And Penn State's rushing defense is better than Nebraska's.
06:19That just got gouged the week prior by Indiana.
06:23You are correct, Joe.
06:24The matchups actually favor Penn State.
06:26But again, the narrative, my man.
06:28They have not won against Ohio State since 2017, or let me do the math quickly here,
06:362016.
06:37And that was when they were unranked, not number three in the country with national
06:41championship aspirations.
06:44We'll talk those title odds in just a moment.
06:48Here's where both teams stack up.
06:50And again, Joe, Ohio State still better prices basically across the board than that of Penn
06:55State.
06:56Except that college football playoff price is pretty, pretty close.
07:01Because this result doesn't actually matter that much, resume wise, for Penn State.
07:06Because they keep winning games they are expected to win, even if they're not covering numbers
07:12like they had the previous few years.
07:14We'll talk more about a game of the year for potential in-state college on Saturday and
07:21what it means for the title odds next.
07:23And right here on the early line, looking forward to the first Saturday in November
07:28in college football, I should add.
07:30Exactly one week from today, there's a lot going on.
07:32As I'm sure you know, it's election day.
07:34We get a lot of things that are happening all around the sports world, including the
07:39college football playoff rankings reveal that might make people angrier than even the results
07:44of the election.
07:46It's the selection committee giving us how they see the country in the first time in
07:50the 12-team era.
07:52And a game, Joe, that will reflect those CFP rankings comes on Saturday.
07:57It's four versus three.
07:59Number four Ohio State, three-and-a-half point favorite in Happy Valley against third-ranked
08:04Penn State.
08:05We have mentioned the narrative.
08:06We have talked about the matchups.
08:07It should be pointed out, as I said, Drew Allard, injured at the end of the opening
08:11half against Wisconsin in Camp Randall on Saturday.
08:15We did not see him in the second half.
08:17Joe Pribula comes in, and he was sensational, 11-of-13 for 98 yards and a touchdown.
08:23Allard has also been great this year, incredibly more efficient, completing passes than he
08:28was a season ago.
08:29He was 14-of-18 for nearly $1.50 and a touchdown in the opening half.
08:34The two quarterbacks for the Penn Staters had six incompletions as a team.
08:40And Joe, that makes things compelling for the Buckeyes.
08:43As James Franklin told reporters yesterday that Drew Allard is improving.
08:47He is going to be considered a game-time decision.
08:51Who does Ohio State even prepare for?
08:53Well, that's the big question.
08:56You're going to have to compare for both, because we already know Franklin's telling
08:59us, you know, listen, Allard has played enough football for us that we can take this timeline
09:04all the way up to the game.
09:06So that doesn't help Ohio State, because Ohio State's got to look at two totally different
09:11quarterbacks here.
09:13And we just watched, you know, we watched the backup go into Camp Randall in the second
09:17half and was absolutely phenomenal, but different than Allard.
09:22So this is not easy for Ohio State.
09:24And if I'm Franklin, even if I know Allard's playing, am I really mentioning anything until
09:30game day?
09:31Absolutely not.
09:32For sure not.
09:33And you might still see both guys play at some point in that game.
09:36For sure.
09:37And you have throughout this year.
09:39Vopar Bula has played.
09:40It is the genius of the offensive coordinator, Andy Kotelnicki, in his first year in state
09:44college coming over from Lawrence, Kansas.
09:47He is a genius.
09:48And he's got guys that can do a little bit of everything.
09:51Tyler Warren, Penn State's tight end.
09:53He can throw.
09:54He can catch.
09:55He can run.
09:56He literally does everything.
09:57Nick Singleton lined up in the slot and caught Allard's first half touchdown, one handed
10:03spearing it.
10:04I mean, this team is legitimately talented offensively and is great on the defensive
10:09side of the football.
10:12So Joe, again, a huge game for the college football playoff rankings and the chase for
10:17a college football playoff national championship.
10:20Ohio State has not looked great the last three weeks.
10:24Lost to Oregon in Autzen.
10:26Biweek did not look good as a 25 and a half point favorite at home against Nebraska.
10:32And yet, silver lining, despite many in Columbus being unhappy with Ryan Day and being justified
10:39in such, Ohio State has the second best prize to win a national championship, a four to
10:45one number, less than a half dollar behind Georgia.
10:50Even in front of Oregon, despite losing the head to head to the Ducks, I would say the
10:55Ducks are a much more balanced team at this juncture at the end of October.
10:59Joe, if you had to make a wager right now, entering the month of November, our final
11:04of the regular season in college football, what do you think is the best bet on the board?
11:11The University of Miami.
11:12Simple.
11:13It's 16 to one because their path is the easiest.
11:17Is it not?
11:18Yeah.
11:19They don't have to play Clemson.
11:20I mean, they're in all likelihood going to, well, they should, I don't think they're ever
11:23going to be a dog here, Ben, unless I'm missing something on the rest of the way.
11:27So, and that offense has proven good luck.
11:32They're going to be able to drop points on any of those defenses that they play here.
11:36And the defense isn't bad either.
11:39You know, the U, would we, any of us, we keep waiting for the wheels to fall off because
11:43that's what history has been for the U, but there is no doubt they have a Heisman quarterback
11:49right now playing at a ridiculous level with a ton of experience and weapons all over the
11:54place.
11:55They're a very dangerous team and should not be at that price.
11:58Joe, there are two teams favored to go undefeated this year, Oregon at a greater than two to
12:03one price ducks, 15 and a half point road favorite in the big house against Michigan
12:08this weekend.
12:09After that, it's really Washington that provides the test at a rivalry game for Oregon.
12:15Miami is the other minus one 74.
12:18Miami is a 20 and a half point favorite at home against Duke this weekend.
12:22Then they played Georgia tech.
12:23We know that the yellow jackets are always a great underdog than a buy and it's Wake
12:28Forest in Syracuse.
12:30They're going to be a double digit favorite in every game, the remainder of this year.
12:34And then he just four more wins to be on beat.
12:36And Joe, it's not just an ACC title.
12:39It's an opening round by in the college football playoff.
12:41I like your thought.
12:42Howard three is up next.