日経サタデー ニュースの疑問 2024年11月2日 与党過半数割れの波紋 「自公国」どうなる？
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00:00Good morning.
00:13This is Nikkei Saturday News on November 2nd.
00:16Now, let me introduce our guest for today.
00:21This is Mr. Atsuo Ito, a political analyst who is familiar with both the right and the left.
00:25Nice to meet you.
00:27Mr. Harutaka Takenaka, a professor at the Graduate School of Political Science,
00:31specializing in Japanese politics and international political economy.
00:35Nice to meet you.
00:37I'm sorry.
00:38Nice to meet you.
00:40Next, Mr. Itaru Oishi, editor-in-chief of the Japan Economic News,
00:44who is covering the political situation in Japan and the United States.
00:47Nice to meet you.
00:48Good morning.
00:50Now, let's take a look at today's headlines.
00:54Here it is.
00:56In the last week since the last election, the Liberal Democratic Party has fallen by more than half,
00:59and the presence of the National Democratic Party has increased.
01:02That's right.
01:03Well, we'll see what the political situation will be like until the next election.
01:10Also, the National Democratic Party, Mr. Tamaki, has drawn a lot of attention here.
01:16In the process, various economic policies, especially the reduction of income tax,
01:21have drawn a lot of attention, so I'd like to think about what will happen.
01:27I'd like to think about what will happen.
01:28Mr. Yamakawa, please give us a catchphrase.
01:30Yes.
01:31The budget is estimated at 7.6 trillion yen,
01:34and it's often referred to as the 1.3 million yen wall,
01:36but the reduction of income tax,
01:37if the National Democratic Party continues as it is now,
01:41it will have the same reduction effect,
01:44but on the other hand, there is a debate about whether the budget is necessary.
01:48There's the 1.3 million yen wall,
01:52but there's also the budget wall,
01:54so I'd like to think about what will happen.
01:58Yes.
01:59And the employment statistics.
02:02Let's take a look at the employment statistics for October in the United States, which were announced yesterday.
02:07The number of non-agricultural workers in the non-agricultural sector,
02:11which is a sensitive indicator of the current situation,
02:13increased by 12,000 compared to the month before.
02:15The market forecast, which was expected to increase by 100,000 to 110,000 people,
02:19has fallen significantly.
02:21The growth has fallen significantly since the month before,
02:24but it is also seen as having a major impact on large-scale hurricanes and large-scale strikes.
02:30The unemployment rate was 4.1%, which was the same as in September.
02:35The average hourly wage was 4.0% more than a year ago.
02:39And how did the playground move?
02:42After the announcement of the employment statistics,
02:44the playground temporarily rose by more than 1 yen,
02:47but after that, it moved in the direction of yen-less
02:50due to the rise in long-term interest rates in the United States,
02:52and the end price was 152 yen 95,000 to 153 yen 5,000 for 1 yen less.
02:59Well, the fact that the number of non-agricultural workers is a bad number
03:02means that there will be a wider gap in the number of non-agricultural workers,
03:06so it suddenly rose by 1 yen.
03:11But this time, there were a lot of things like hurricanes and large-scale strikes,
03:18so it was decided that it would be temporary.
03:21In particular, according to the experts in employment statistics,
03:23it is said that it will not be true data unless it is tuned for at least three months,
03:30so I think that it has returned to a calm response.
03:34Yes.
03:35Then, after this is a special report.
03:37I will analyze it with an expert on what will happen to the government.
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03:57The Supreme Court of Japan
04:00The Supreme Court of Japan has given a very strict judgment to the people.
04:10The result of the Supreme Court's acquisition of the Liberal Party and the Komei Party
04:14is less than 233 votes in the lower half.
04:18This is the election of the House of Representatives.
04:21Mr. Shinjiro Koizumi, a member of the Liberal Party,
04:24was appointed as the president of the election.
04:31Mr. Ishii, a member of the Komei Party,
04:33who was elected from the 14th district of Saitama Prefecture,
04:36showed his intention of appointing him as the president.
04:42In the first half of the election, I said,
04:45I would like to appoint Mr. Noda as the president.
04:48I made a straightforward request.
04:54Mr. Noda, a member of the Liberal Party,
04:56has extended his term of office by 50 seats.
04:59After the election, he met with the leader of the Liberal Party.
05:04He is aiming for the position of prime minister,
05:08but it is unclear whether the Liberal Party will support him.
05:15In the election of the prime minister,
05:17the chairman of the Liberal Party, Mr. Ishiba,
05:19was re-elected as the prime minister,
05:21but he became a minority.
05:23In some way, he needs the support of the opposition party.
05:29Among them, the Liberal Party is attracting attention
05:32by extending its term of office to 28 seats,
05:35which is four times that of the Komei Party.
05:39It is said that the Liberal Party is aiming for the position of prime minister.
05:44What we want is not the position of prime minister,
05:47but the realization of the economic policy
05:50to increase the income of the people,
05:52which was promised by the election.
05:56The key to the economic policy of the people
06:00is the revision of the wall of 1.3 million yen per year.
06:05When the annual income exceeds 1.3 million yen,
06:08income tax is generated,
06:10which is said to be the wall of 1.3 million yen per year.
06:13The main goal of the people's democracy
06:16is to raise it to 1.78 million yen.
06:22On the 31st of last month,
06:24the chairman of the Liberal Party and the People's Democratic Party
06:27met in the National Assembly
06:29and agreed to hold a policy conference on both parties.
06:32It is seen that the wall of the annual income
06:35will be raised to 1.78 million yen
06:37and that it will be a conditional negotiation.
06:43Representative Tamaki, who appeared on TV Tokyo yesterday,
06:47The school is now set at 1.78 million yen.
06:52Will that be the minimum condition?
06:55Or is there still room for negotiation?
06:59Well, negotiations haven't started yet,
07:01so it won't be a negotiation if we move it from the beginning.
07:04First of all, I would like to have a good negotiation with this.
07:09How far will the people's democracy go?
07:14Even if the government can be maintained,
07:16how will Prime Minister Ishiba, who is a minority party,
07:19manage the administration of the government?
07:24What kind of moves will the Politburo make
07:27while avoiding the election of a third party next year?
07:31Today, we will discuss these three themes.
07:35First of all, I would like to start with Prime Minister Ishiba,
07:38who is a minority party.
07:40I would like to confirm again the results of the vote
07:43held on the 27th of last month.
07:46The People's Party has 191 seats, minus 56 seats.
07:50The Komeito has 24 seats, minus 8 seats.
07:54In total, there are 215 seats,
07:57and the Komeito has 233 seats, minus 18 seats.
08:02And after the election,
08:046 out of 12 people who are not a minority party
08:06have joined the Liberal Democratic Party.
08:08The Komeito has 221 seats.
08:11On the other hand, the Liberal Democratic Party
08:13has a different name.
08:15The party with the largest number of seats
08:17has 148 seats, plus 50 seats.
08:20The Komeito has 28 seats,
08:22and the Komeito has 21 seats, minus 21 seats.
08:25The Reiwa Shinsengumi has 9 seats, plus 6 seats.
08:29On the other hand,
08:31the Japanese Communist Party has a smaller number of seats.
08:35In total, the Komeito has 238 seats,
08:38and the Komeito has more than half of the seats.
08:41First of all, the results of the election.
08:43Mr. Ito, where would you like to focus on?
08:45Overall,
08:48I was very impressed by the collapse
08:52of the political system in Japan.
08:55There are pros and cons,
08:58but I think one of the cons is that
09:00we are losing the sense of tension
09:02from politics.
09:04The situation has changed drastically.
09:09So, how will we respond to this situation,
09:12not just for the sake of the government,
09:15but also for the sake of the opposition?
09:18I would like to see whether or not
09:21each party is aware of the different responses
09:24that have been made to this situation.
09:27I would like to see whether or not each party
09:30is aware of the different responses
09:33that have been made to this situation.
09:36In terms of the increase in the number of seats,
09:39the number of conservative parties
09:42has increased, right?
09:44Yes.
09:46It has only increased by 70,000 seats.
09:49However, the number of conservative parties
09:51has increased significantly.
09:53Originally, it was said that
09:55if the opposition party was not unified,
09:57it would be difficult to win in the conservative party.
10:00However, that myth has collapsed.
10:02The reason for this is that
10:04in the conservative party,
10:06the candidates' faces are visible.
10:09Then, the candidates for the Liberal Democratic Party,
10:12including those who have nothing to do with it,
10:15will not be included in the Liberal Democratic Party.
10:18Then, what will happen to the opposition party?
10:21Even if there are several candidates,
10:24the consciousness that if the opposition party
10:27is included in the first party,
10:29it will be able to win in the conservative party
10:32may have been strong.
10:34In that sense, the fact that the number of candidates
10:37has increased significantly in the conservative party
10:40and that it has not increased in the conservative party
10:43means that the number of candidates
10:46for the Liberal Democratic Party
10:49has increased significantly.
10:52However, I think this is the impression
10:54of the result of the election.
10:56During the election,
10:58there may not be many people
11:00who want the Liberal Democratic Party
11:02to win the election,
11:04but I think there were many people
11:06who wanted to appeal to the Liberal Democratic Party.
11:08Mr. Takeda, what do you think?
11:10I think there are three major factors
11:13that the Liberal Democratic Party
11:15has been quite self-destructive.
11:17One is the reform of the Cabinet.
11:19When the Cabinet was established,
11:21I thought that Mr. Ishiban
11:23would do something fresh
11:25that was different from what he has done so far,
11:28but the debate and negotiation
11:30were too strong,
11:32so the government did not have much effect.
11:35The second is the issue of
11:37whether or not to approve
11:39a member of the House of Representatives
11:41who has a political problem.
11:43At first, there was talk of
11:45approving everyone,
11:47so I gave the impression
11:49that I would do something like that.
11:51The third is the issue of
11:5320 million yen,
11:55which was the last straw.
11:57So I think that
11:59if you do this much,
12:01you will lose the Liberal Democratic Party.
12:03So I think that the supporters of the Liberal Democratic Party
12:06were not able to solidify their supporters,
12:09so I think this is the result.
12:11So I think it shows that
12:13the votes of the people
12:15have not increased much.
12:17On the contrary,
12:19the votes of the people
12:21have dropped a lot,
12:23so I think it means
12:25that they lost on their own goal.
12:27Mr. Oishi.
12:29The story of the self-destruction of the Liberal Democratic Party
12:31has come out a lot now,
12:33so I will explain it from a different perspective.
12:35The Liberal Democratic Party,
12:37which is a party of self-destruction,
12:39had a problem with the pro-democracy
12:41and the pro-Liberal Democratic Party,
12:43so they lost a lot of support.
12:45In other words,
12:47until before the election,
12:49the Liberal Democratic Party
12:51and the Liberal Democratic Party
12:53didn't like each other,
12:55but this time they didn't like
12:57the self-destruction either.
12:59As a result,
13:01in the elections,
13:03the Liberal Democratic Party
13:05defeated the Pro-Liberal Democratic Party
13:07and put it in the Liberal Democratic Party,
13:09as Mr. Ito said earlier.
13:11But they didn't want to put it
13:13in the Liberal Democratic Party
13:15because it was an example,
13:17so they put it in the
13:19National Democratic Party,
13:21which is the fourth option.
13:23Therefore,
13:25although the Liberal Democratic Party
13:27was not expected,
13:29there were many places
13:31where the Liberal Democratic Party
13:33was expected to win.
13:35There is also the self-destruction
13:37of the Liberal Democratic Party,
13:39but the fact that
13:41the will to self-destruct
13:43is also quite influential.
13:45Can you show me the results again?
13:47The majority of the OECD
13:49is 233,
13:51and now the unconfirmed
13:53senators have been gathered
13:55and now there are six more,
13:57so if we increase
13:59the number of unconfirmed
14:01senators to 22,
14:03it will go to the lower half.
14:05Does this mean that
14:07the number of unconfirmed
14:09senators will go to the lower half
14:11with a one-off vote?
14:13Of course,
14:15the introduction of the
14:17National Democratic Party
14:19is now the main scenario,
14:21but on the other hand,
14:23as I said,
14:25the Japanese Parliament
14:27has a lot of people
14:29who don't think they can fight
14:31in the lower half.
14:33If that's the case,
14:35the Liberal Democratic Party
14:37will lead the way
14:39and become a conservative party,
14:41and the Liberal Democratic Party
14:43will speak out.
14:45In fact, the Liberal Democratic Party
14:47is thinking a lot
14:49in parallel with the introduction
14:51of the National Democratic Party.
14:53Then, there are some
14:55people like Shinjiro Koizumi,
14:57who was on the front line,
14:59and he is the only one
15:01who is running for office.
15:03Among them, Moriyama-san,
15:05the chairman of the board,
15:07is also running for office.
15:09The Liberal Democratic Party
15:11is running for office
15:13because it lost the election.
15:15At the moment,
15:17Saito-san, the current
15:19Minister of State,
15:21is running for office.
15:23What do you think, Ito-san?
15:27In Koizumi-san's case,
15:29it's a strange way to put it,
15:31but I have the impression
15:33that he ran away from the thievery.
15:35In the case of Komeito,
15:37it can't be helped
15:39because Ishii-san lost the election.
15:41Saito-san and another person,
15:43Okamoto-san,
15:45Mitsunari-san,
15:47are also running for office.
15:49I've heard that
15:51the Liberal Democratic Party
15:53has decided to hold
15:55a representative election
15:57in December.
15:59I think it means
16:01a change of representatives.
16:03However,
16:05it's hard to find a new
16:07representative candidate
16:09to replace Baba-san.
16:11Yoshimura-san is fired,
16:13so it's impossible
16:15for the Liberal Democratic Party.
16:17So, in the future,
16:19the Liberal Democratic Party
16:21may make a move
16:23to replace Baba-san.
16:25I think the possibility
16:27of Baba-san's re-election
16:29is quite severe.
16:31And what I'm most concerned about
16:33is whether the Ishiba government
16:35will remain as it is
16:37in the form of a minority party.
16:39The next prime minister
16:41will be elected.
16:43A special parliament
16:45will be convened
16:47and a special parliament
16:49will be convened.
16:51If the members of the parliament
16:53vote and get a majority,
16:55they will be elected
16:57as prime ministers.
16:59If they don't get a majority,
17:01they will be elected
17:03as prime ministers.
17:05The Ishiba prime minister
17:07of the Liberal Democratic Party
17:09has said that it is
17:11the responsibility of the party
17:13to get the most seats.
17:15It is natural that the party
17:17will get the most seats.
17:19And the Liberal Democratic Party
17:21representative, Noda,
17:23wants all parties
17:25to write Noda
17:27in the election
17:29of the prime minister.
17:31The representative
17:33of the Japanese Parliament
17:35has said that
17:37if there are no major
17:39resolutions or specific
17:41reforms that the people
17:43want to see,
17:45the party will not
17:47vote.
17:49The Japanese Parliament
17:51representative,
17:53Tamura,
17:55has said that
17:57after the meeting,
17:59he wants to consider
18:01how to respond
18:03to the election.
18:05The representative of the
18:07Liberal Democratic Party
18:09has not yet
18:11written the name of
18:13the representative of his party.
18:15He will probably
18:17become the Ishiba prime minister.
18:19Mr. Takenaka,
18:21what do you think?
18:23Of course,
18:25if the non-Japanese people
18:27get together,
18:29I think that
18:31Prime Minister Noda
18:33can be elected.
18:35However,
18:37I think that
18:39the Japanese people
18:41still say that
18:43the peace and security policy
18:45should not be implemented.
18:47The Japanese Parliament
18:49has said that
18:51the JSDF
18:53should be formed
18:55and that the
18:57Liberal Democratic Party
18:59should be formed.
19:01In this situation,
19:03it is difficult
19:05for the non-Japanese people
19:07Mr. Ito,
19:09will you write the name
19:11of the representative
19:13including Ishin?
19:15Mr. Baba has already
19:17said that he will
19:19do so.
19:21The Japanese people
19:23will write with Mr. Tamaki
19:25and Mr. Ishin with Mr. Baba,
19:27which means that
19:29they will allow
19:31the existence of the
19:33Ishiba government.
19:35I thought that
19:37Mr. Noda's move
19:39was unreasonable from the beginning.
19:41Of course,
19:43everyone knows
19:45the stance of each party,
19:47so is it a plus
19:49to call them,
19:51lower their heads
19:53and ask for a vote?
19:55In terms of
19:57the rule of law,
19:59creating a government
20:01based on comparison
20:03is not a good idea.
20:05In other words,
20:07it is not convincing
20:09to say that we should
20:11change the rule of law
20:13because we have
20:15split the majority.
20:17Mr. Noda,
20:19you said that
20:21since you are the first
20:23member of the JSDF,
20:25the rule of law
20:27is entrusted to you,
20:29so it is reasonable
20:31to call them lower heads.
20:33It doesn't make much sense.
20:35For example,
20:37the JSDF was also
20:39a member of the JSDF.
20:41I know that
20:43the JSDF was
20:45thoroughly
20:47opposed to the rule of law
20:49in the last election.
20:51I wonder
20:53if Mr. Noda will
20:55write as soon as
20:57the election is over.
20:59The JSDF lost
21:01in the last election,
21:03so I don't think
21:05it makes much sense.
21:09Let's see how far
21:11the JSDF will go
21:13after the commercial break.
21:23The second theme is
21:25whether we can really
21:27make a difference.
21:29The JSDF has
21:31made a commitment
21:33to increase
21:35tax revenue.
21:37The JSDF has
21:39increased the tax revenue
21:41from 1.3 million yen
21:43to 1.78 million yen.
21:45The JSDF has
21:47increased the tax revenue
21:49from 1.3 million yen
21:51to 1.78 million yen.
21:53The JSDF has
21:55made a commitment
21:57to increase tax revenue
21:59from 1.78 million yen
22:01to 1.78 million yen
22:03and the tax revenue
22:05from 1.78 million yen
22:07to 1.78 million yen.
22:09Mr. Takenaka,
22:11you're on the same side
22:13as Mr. Tamaki
22:15and former Minister Okura
22:17and I'm sure you know
22:19how he is.
22:21How do you see
22:23I think he has a lot of confidence in the fact that he is making a policy that is in line with the principles of the Constitution.
22:31I think that if he makes a policy that is in line with the principles of the Constitution,
22:39and if he makes a bill that is in line with the principles of the Ishiba government,
22:43then I think that there will be room for compromise.
22:46However, he is holding a key person, or rather a casting vote.
22:51In general, he is very particular about talking about the rule of law and the trigger,
22:58so I feel that he won't be able to get out of this.
23:01What do you think? In essence, if the 1st and the 3rd are passed to some extent,
23:05it will become a budget bill, or to put it further,
23:08for example, when a non-recognition bill is passed in the next General Assembly,
23:12will it turn the other way, or is it in essence that he is thinking up to that point?
23:17No, what is particularly important is that this will lead to the topic of tax reform,
23:22and it is a topic that will be related to the budget bill next year,
23:26so to forcefully pass this is to agree to the budget bill next year, I think.
23:32That is almost equal.
23:34I think it's almost equal.
23:36If the government can accept this basic thing.
23:40But to agree to the budget bill means to agree to all the policies the government is doing,
23:46so even if a non-recognition bill is passed,
23:49to agree to it is too much.
23:53No, after the budget bill is passed, it will be different.
23:56It will be logically wrong.
23:58It will be logically wrong.
24:00Rather, to agree to the budget bill,
24:02I keep repeating that I don't want a post,
24:05but I think it can also be seen as one of the flows that will enter into a series.
24:12Even when I made a series with the government,
24:14the government eventually entered into a series of policies and agreements,
24:18so I think they are thinking about that as well.
24:24Let's take a closer look.
24:26This is the wall of 1.3 million yen, which has the most attention.
24:29Yes, this is the focus of this policy.
24:31What does it mean to raise the basic infrastructure from the current 1.3 million yen to 1.78 million yen?
24:37In order to raise the basic infrastructure from the current 1.78 million yen to 1.78 million yen,
24:40the income tax will apply a tax rate to the amount deducted from the income from a certain amount.
24:43The basic infrastructure for all farmers is 480,000 yen,
24:48and the employment benefits for companies are at least 550,000 yen.
24:52These two together will be 1.3 million yen.
24:55If you receive employment benefits within this framework,
24:58it is said that it is a wall of 1.3 million yen,
25:00so that you can adjust your working hours and so on so that you don't have to pay taxes.
25:05This is a proposal to raise the tax rate to 750,000 yen and make it 1.78 million yen.
25:12The issue is scale and budget.
25:15There is a view that the income tax will reduce consumption,
25:18improve corporate profits, and create a sense of superiority that will lead to further inflation,
25:25but if you simply calculate the housing tax and income tax of farmers with more than 50 million people,
25:30it is estimated that it will be about 7.6 trillion yen,
25:37which is one-fourth of the current income tax and housing tax.
25:41The National Democratic Party has not shown concrete measures for the budget.
25:45Mr. Oishi, what will happen in the end?
25:49The issue of the budget is important.
25:53But as Mr. Takenaka said earlier,
25:56when we formed with the Komeito,
25:59at the previous stage, we did something called the regional application,
26:03which is to distribute gold tickets to the people.
26:07At this time, the budget was 7 billion yen,
26:11but as a result, the Komeito joined us in a row.
26:15At this time, Mr. Nonaka, who was the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party at the time,
26:20said that it was an expansion of 7 billion yen.
26:24If it is to maintain the government, 7 billion yen is cheap.
26:27That's right. He said it was an expansion of 7 billion yen.
26:30Compared to that, 7.6 trillion yen is certainly big,
26:35but considering that it may fall to the ruling party,
26:39I think it's cheap for the Komeito.
26:43Is that so?
26:45I think it's a fairly expensive purchase.
26:47The 6 billion yen that was given to the Komeito was temporary,
26:51so it's a high-level tax.
26:54So, regardless of whether it actually goes up to 7 trillion yen,
26:58I think it will be a fairly expensive purchase,
27:01if all of it is implemented.
27:04The Liberal Democratic Party is not doing politics for the country,
27:08it's doing it for itself.
27:10No, no, no. If you go that far, there's no doubt about it.
27:13I'll show you the graph from earlier.
27:16In the end, low-income people are not the only ones who are taxed.
27:21To some extent, people with very high incomes
27:25will lose their factories,
27:27but they are basically receiving these factories.
27:29So, if that happens,
27:31even people with a fairly high income will be taxed.
27:36Can you show me one?
27:38In fact, people with a lot of income are more likely to be taxed.
27:42That's what it is.
27:44Some members of the Liberal Democratic Party are saying,
27:46how about this?
27:48Including this,
27:50if you look at the budget, it's 7.6 trillion yen.
27:53Are we going to drink this?
27:55Or are we going to take the gap between
27:581.3 million yen and 1.78 million yen
28:01and attack each other a little more?
28:03What do you think?
28:05What Mr. Tamaki said was that it was a matter of negotiation,
28:08and the final decision was up to negotiations.
28:13The minimum wage for this period of 1.78 million yen
28:17has increased by about 1.7 times since 1995,
28:22so I'm saying that it should be increased in that area.
28:25The factory price hasn't gone up at all.
28:27The factory price hasn't gone up at all.
28:29But is it actually that inflationary?
28:32The reason why people with low incomes are so concerned
28:35is because they are inflated,
28:37and that means that they are inflated economically.
28:41So, for example, if you look at the inflation from 1995,
28:45I don't think it's 1.7 times,
28:47so it might be 1.3 or 1.4 times.
28:50So, how about raising it that much?
28:53He is very particular about the logic of the policy,
28:58so I think there is a possibility that he will try to hit it.
29:02And as for the elderly,
29:04the fact that the number of people with high incomes
29:09is increasing is not the main point.
29:14He is saying that it is important to increase the minimum wage
29:18for people with 2 million or 3 million yen.
29:21So, if we make it more strict to reduce the minimum wage
29:26for people with high incomes,
29:29I think it is technically easy to reduce the minimum wage for people with high incomes.
29:34So, I think he will do that.
29:36In any case, he is in a very strong position,
29:39so I think it will be up to Mr. Tamaki's decision in the end.
29:43The minimum wage is quite unreasonable.
29:48But during the election period,
29:51I followed Mr. Tamaki's speech quite closely.
29:55When he said that the minimum wage is 1.73 times,
29:59so it is 1,780,000 yen,
30:02the people who gathered in Kitaguchi, Marunouchi,
30:05were very excited.
30:09I think such a very easy-to-understand explanation
30:14has a much stronger power than just a political consistency.
30:20How about you, Mr. Ito?
30:22I don't know if I should ask Mr. Takenaka.
30:24I am an amateur, so I will ask you a simple question.
30:28If we increase the minimum wage to 1.3 million yen,
30:31will the income increase?
30:33Will the income increase?
30:35If we increase the minimum wage to 1.3 million yen to 1.780,000 yen,
30:41the income of the people who earn about 1.5 million yen
30:46and pay the tax at the minimum wage of 470,000 yen will increase.
30:52This is a tax issue.
30:54What about the 1.3 million yen wall?
30:57There are two reasons.
30:58One is that people who quit their jobs because of the 1.3 million yen tax
31:02will increase the minimum wage to 1.780,000 yen.
31:04This is a story of labor supply.
31:06Another reason is that even now,
31:09even if the minimum wage is 1,000,000 yen a year,
31:11there is an increase in the minimum wage.
31:13If the minimum wage is increased to 1.780,000 yen,
31:15there will be a reduction in the minimum wage.
31:17There is no doubt that the income will increase.
31:19Even if the minimum wage is 1.3 million yen,
31:21there is another wall of social insurance, right?
31:23Yes, there is.
31:24Are you trying to do that together with Mr. Tamaki?
31:27I saw Mr. Tamaki's press conference.
31:30He said that it doesn't have to be discussed as a long-term issue.
31:34The 1.6 million yen wall will actually reduce the income.
31:39As soon as the minimum wage increases from 1.6 million to 1.7 million yen,
31:42social insurance will increase, so the minimum wage will decrease.
31:461.3 million yen is called a wall,
31:49but it doesn't actually reduce the income
31:54by increasing it from 1.3 million yen to 1.5 million yen.
31:56It costs 20,000 yen to increase the income from 1.3 million to 1.5 million yen,
32:02so 1.3 million yen won't decrease.
32:04I think it's a bit too much to call it a wall.
32:07As a matter of fact, let's take a look at the graph.
32:09This is a simple example.
32:12The one on the far left is the 1.3 million yen wall.
32:17The bigger one is the 1.6 million yen wall and the 1.3 million yen wall.
32:26This one is actually bigger,
32:28so people who want to maintain the state of being able to enter unnecessarily
32:32can stop their work here.
32:34So, in fact, there seems to be a debate
32:39as to what to do with the 1.3 million yen wall.
32:42And the other thing that is of interest is the trigger information.
32:45Furthermore, the National Democratic Party is seeking to
32:48lift the freezing of trigger information.
32:50Trigger information is when the gasoline price exceeds 160 yen
32:53for three consecutive months,
32:55it stops the inflation of 25.1 yen above the gasoline tax.
33:00It is frozen to ensure the restoration of the Great East Japan Earthquake.
33:05If the freezing is lifted,
33:07the country and the region will need about 1.5 trillion yen a year.
33:11Mr. Takenaga, will the opposition drink
33:14about the lifting of this trigger information?
33:17This is already a lot of subsidies for gasoline,
33:22so I think it's easier to drink
33:25by activating the trigger instead of losing it
33:28and lowering the price of gasoline without taking the gasoline tax.
33:34So, it's not something that has to be processed
33:37with the current budget.
33:39However, if it's a high-level tax,
33:41will the tax be lifted?
33:43No, this will also be a high-level tax relief.
33:46So, what Mr. Tamaki said is that
33:48it's a high-level reduction.
33:51The gasoline is also being issued now,
33:54so this is a high-level reduction.
33:56However, this is 1.5 trillion yen,
33:58so the damage is still small,
34:00or the reduction is small.
34:02Also, Mr. Tamaki,
34:04in the press conference,
34:06he admitted that it was a problem
34:08to lower the price of gasoline
34:10in the era of de-carbonization,
34:12and that there was a debate about this.
34:15So, as a countermeasure to global warming,
34:20what is the debate about
34:23putting another tax on fossil fuels?
34:29If the Ishiba administration
34:31brought this up,
34:33Mr. Tamaki would stick to logic.
34:35So, I think it would be a good idea
34:37to put forward a proposal like that.
34:39So, you're saying that
34:41we should replace the sign
34:43of the Stability and Sustainability Act?
34:45Yes, or replace the sign.
34:47For example, the 1.5 trillion yen
34:49will be disbursed,
34:51but what do you think about
34:53introducing a new environmental tax
34:55for 5 trillion yen?
34:57Well, the tax on consumption,
34:59the tax on consumption
35:01will be 5%
35:03until the tax on self-employment
35:05continues to increase.
35:07If you look at the tax on consumption,
35:09the only people who can
35:11get a tax on consumption
35:13are the people of Japan.
35:15Representative Noda
35:17has previously
35:19done a three-party agreement,
35:21so the tax on consumption
35:23will not be disbursed.
35:25However, all the other
35:27conglomerates are holding on to
35:29the tax on consumption.
35:31So, if the people of Japan
35:33were to take over,
35:35wouldn't the conglomerates
35:37hold more power?
35:39Well,
35:41while we've been
35:43discussing this with Mr. Tamaki,
35:45the 1.3 trillion yen
35:47and the TRIGGER
35:49have been brought up often,
35:51but Mr. Tamaki hasn't touched
35:53on the issue of the tax on consumption.
35:55So, it's true that
35:57Mr. Yamakawa is right
35:59about a number of things,
36:01but when it comes to
36:03the issue of the tax on consumption,
36:05it's up to the people of Japan
36:07to listen.
36:09As long as they don't
36:11say it out loud,
36:13they won't react.
36:15So, in Mr. Tamaki's case,
36:17the issue of the tax on consumption
36:19is something that
36:21the people of Japan
36:23are strong in.
36:25But in reality,
36:27the issue of the tax on consumption
36:29and the tax on income
36:31is something that
36:33the people of Japan
36:35are struggling with.
36:37So, in Mr. Tamaki's case,
36:39the issue of the tax on consumption
36:41and the tax on income
36:43is something that
36:45the people of Japan
36:47are struggling with.
36:49Mr. Ito, how do you see
36:51the issue of the tax on consumption
36:53and the tax on income?
37:15Mr. Ito, how do you see
37:17the issue of the tax on consumption
37:19and the tax on income?
37:47Mr. Ito, how do you see
37:49the issue of the tax on consumption
37:51and the tax on income?
38:17Mr. Ito, how do you see
38:19the issue of the tax on consumption
38:21and the tax on income?
38:47Mr. Ito, how do you see
38:49the issue of the tax on consumption
38:51and the tax on income?
39:17Mr. Ito, how do you see
39:19the issue of the tax on consumption
39:21and the tax on income?
39:47Mr. Ito, how do you see
39:49the issue of the tax on consumption
39:51and the tax on income?
40:11Mr. Ito, how do you see
40:13the issue of the tax on consumption
40:15and the tax on income?
40:45Mr. Ito, how do you see
40:47the issue of the tax on consumption
40:49and the tax on income?
41:15Mr. Ito, how do you see
41:17the issue of the tax on consumption
41:19and the tax on income?
41:45Mr. Ito, how do you see
41:47the issue of the tax on consumption
41:49and the tax on income?
41:59Mr. Ito, how do you see
42:01the issue of the tax on consumption
42:03and the tax on income?
42:15Mr. Ito, how do you see
42:17the issue of the tax on consumption
42:19and the tax on income?
42:45Mr. Ito, how do you see
42:47the issue of the tax on consumption
42:49and the tax on income?
43:15Mr. Ito, how do you see
43:17the issue of the tax on consumption
43:19and the tax on income?
43:29Mr. Ito, how do you see
43:31the issue of the tax on consumption
43:33and the tax on income?
43:45Mr. Ito, how do you see
43:47the issue of the tax on consumption
43:49and the tax on income?
44:15Mr. Ito, how do you see
44:17the issue of the tax on consumption
44:19and the tax on income?
44:45Mr. Ito, how do you see
44:47the issue of the tax on consumption
44:49and the tax on income?
45:09Mr. Ito, how do you see
45:11the issue of the tax on consumption
45:13and the tax on income?
45:43Mr. Ito, how do you see
45:45the issue of the tax on consumption
45:47and the tax on income?
46:13Mr. Ito, how do you see
46:15the issue of the tax on consumption
46:17and the tax on income?
46:43Mr. Ito, how do you see
46:45the issue of the tax on consumption
46:47and the tax on income?
47:13Mr. Ito, how do you see
47:15the issue of the tax on consumption
47:17and the tax on income?
47:43Mr. Ito, how do you see
47:45the issue of the tax on consumption
47:47and the tax on income?
47:49Mr. Ito, how do you see
47:51the issue of the tax on consumption
47:53and the tax on income?
47:55Mr. Ito, how do you see
47:57the issue of the tax on consumption
47:59and the tax on income?
48:01Mr. Ito, how do you see
48:03the issue of the tax on consumption
48:05and the tax on income?
48:07Mr. Ito, how do you see
48:09the issue of the tax on consumption
48:11Mr. Ito, how do you see
48:13the issue of the tax on consumption
48:15and the tax on income?
48:41Mr. Ito, how do you see
48:43the issue of the tax on consumption
48:45and the tax on income?
48:47Mr. Ito, how do you see
48:49the issue of the tax on consumption
48:51and the tax on income?
48:53Mr. Ito, how do you see
48:55the issue of the tax on consumption
48:57and the tax on income?
48:59Mr. Ito, how do you see
49:01the issue of the tax on consumption
49:03and the tax on income?
49:05Mr. Ito, how do you see
49:07the issue of the tax on consumption
49:09and the tax on income?
49:11Mr. Ito, how do you see
49:13the issue of the tax on consumption
49:15and the tax on income?
49:17Mr. Ito, how do you see
49:19the issue of the tax on consumption
49:21and the tax on income?
49:23Mr. Ito, how do you see
49:25the issue of the tax on consumption
49:27and the tax on income?
49:29Mr. Ito, how do you see
49:31the issue of the tax on consumption
49:33and the tax on income?
49:35Mr. Ito, how do you see
49:37the issue of the tax on consumption
49:39and the tax on income?
49:41Mr. Ito, how do you see
49:43the issue of the tax on consumption
49:45and the tax on income?
49:47Mr. Ito, how do you see
49:49the issue of the tax on consumption
49:51and the tax on income?
49:53Mr. Ito, how do you see
49:55the issue of the tax on consumption
49:57and the tax on income?
49:59Mr. Ito, how do you see
50:01the issue of the tax on consumption
50:03and the tax on income?
50:05Thank you very much.