Former President Donald Trump’s lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in the election betting markets narrowed sharply over the weekend—with the Democrat even taking a small lead in one of the five big markets—as the betting market responded to some favorable recent polling for Harris, including a shock poll showing her ahead in the red state of Iowa.
Read the full story on Forbes: https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2024/11/04/trumps-betting-market-lead-narrowed-over-the-weekend-but-he-remains-bookmakers-favorite-to-win/
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Read the full story on Forbes: https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2024/11/04/trumps-betting-market-lead-narrowed-over-the-weekend-but-he-remains-bookmakers-favorite-to-win/
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PeopleTranscript
00:00Former President Donald Trump's lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in the election
00:04betting markets narrowed sharply over the weekend, with the Democrat even taking a small
00:09lead in one of the five big markets.
00:12According to the Election Betting Odds Tracker, which consolidates betting numbers from five
00:16major markets, bookmakers now give Trump a 54.6% chance of winning in November, compared
00:23to 45% for Harris.
00:25This is a major shift from last week's numbers, which had Trump solidly ahead at 63%, compared
00:32to his Democratic opponent's odds of around 36%.
00:36Bettors on the crypto-based betting platform PolyMarket, whose numbers have been touted
00:40by both Trump and Elon Musk, believe Trump is still the favorite, with a roughly 58%
00:45chance compared to Harris' 42.2%.
00:48On Calshi, which won a federal court ruling last month to continue accepting bets on the
00:53election, bookmakers predict Trump has an edge of 54% to 46%.
00:59While there had been some movement in Harris' favor since Friday, a big swing occurred late
01:03on Saturday night after well-respected pollster Ann Selzer released numbers from her team's
01:08final survey in Iowa.
01:10Selzer's poll, published by the Des Moines Register, showed Harris with a shock three-point
01:15lead over Trump, 47% to 44%, in a state the former president carried in 2016 and 2020.
01:23For more on this story, check out Syled de Dieray's article in the link in the description.