• 10 hours ago
Former President Donald Trump heads into Election Day having significantly narrowed the polling lead Vice President Kamala Harris carved out against him shortly after her entrance into the race, with averages showing Trump leading four of the seven battlegrounds, but by such slim margins the race could be either candidate’s to win.

Read the full story on Forbes: https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/11/05/election-day-2024-here-are-trumps-clearest-paths-to-victory-live-updates/

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Transcript
00:00Former President Donald Trump heads into Election Day having significantly narrowed the polling
00:05lead Vice President Kamala Harris carved out against him shortly after her entrance into
00:09the race, with averages showing Trump leading four of the seven battlegrounds, but by such
00:15slim margins the race could be either candidates to win.
00:19Polls indicate Trump's clearest path to victory runs through the Sunbelt states of
00:23Arizona and Nevada, where he's ahead by 2.2 points and 0.3 points respectively, and
00:29in the historically red states of Georgia and North Carolina, where he leads by one
00:33point each according to 538 polling averages.
00:37If Trump wins all of the non-swing states he won in 2020, plus the Sunbelt and Southern
00:42swing states, and one of the three blue wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania,
00:48then it would put him over the 270 electoral vote threshold needed to win.
00:53According to polls, Trump is most likely to win Pennsylvania, where he and Harris are
00:57tied, which would give him 287 electoral votes.
01:01While less likely, Trump could also theoretically win if he takes back the three blue wall states
01:06that he secured in 2020, plus either Arizona, Georgia, or North Carolina.
01:12Trump lost to Biden in six of this year's swing states in 2020, with the exception of
01:17North Carolina, and he won six of the seven in 2016, with the exception of Nevada.
01:23A repeat of polling flaws from 2020 and 2016 could lead to an electoral college sweep for
01:28either candidate.
01:30All seven swing states have average polling margins of 2.2 points or less, meaning that
01:35if polls are off by just two or three points in favor of one candidate, they could win
01:40by a landslide.
01:42For more on this story, check out Sarah Dorn's article in the link in the description.

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