• 3 weeks ago
The 2024 U.S. elections are more than just a domestic affair—they have the potential to reshape global politics, economics, and international relations. In this video, we explore how the outcome of the U.S. presidential race could impact everything from trade agreements to foreign policy, climate change efforts, and global security. Experts weigh in on the far-reaching consequences of the election and what it means for countries around the world. Don't miss this in-depth analysis of the global stakes in the 2024 election.


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00:00We also have been joined by Parmeet Pal Chaudhary, he is the foreign policy and political economy
00:05analyst.
00:06Thank you so much Parmeet for joining us.
00:09The first question that I have from you is that where is the US election heading in terms
00:16of the power, the power figure that US has and US is being considered that they are controlling
00:23most of the geopolitics and the international relations when it comes to war and stability
00:29and of course oil and the dollar.
00:32But after all these years and the changes that you have seen in US elections, where
00:38do you think it is heading and how strong is it?
00:41And after November 5 or after January 20 when we have the oath-taking ceremony, where US
00:48is heading and how powerful they are going to stay?
00:52That is a difficult question.
00:55I would say that the first point is that whoever becomes president will face a number of geopolitical
01:04problems.
01:05The first one and actually the biggest and most important in the long term will be China
01:10because China is fundamentally unlike, it is not Russia, it won't invade places but
01:16it is designing, positioning itself to become the dominant player in what we call critical
01:22and emerging technologies.
01:23So the idea there, if you talk to the Chinese they are quite open about it, that America
01:28dominated the world in their view since the 1950s because it dominated critical technologies,
01:34it was the heart of innovation globally.
01:37China now is basically saying we are going to replace it.
01:42So that battle over quantum computing, semiconductors, AI, synthetic biology, there is a long list
01:49of these technologies which China basically says we are going to be the world leader and
01:54automatically we will therefore replace the United States over a period of time as this
01:59happens.
02:00In addition, they happen to also be the world's largest manufacturing base and the broad view
02:08is that all we need to do is slowly undermine American presence in what we call the Indo-Pacific
02:14and eventually all the cards will fall to China.
02:19It's a long term view, it's not as short term as I would say that Putin is, but it's there
02:26fundamentally deeply embedded in the Chinese system and it's important to realize that
02:31consistently in the American system, especially since roughly the second Obama administration
02:37onwards, there has been no change in American recognition of this policy.
02:43I would actually say, I'd even take it back to George W. Bush, who in many ways began
02:47as the first to really recognize that China was the threat that it was.
02:54One of the reasons India is reasonably confident that it does not matter who becomes President
03:00of the United States is that this China issue and this strategic technology struggle, if
03:08you wish, is something that India also fundamentally believes in.
03:12It is a strategic move that has been consistent between India and the United States now for
03:17a number of administrations.
03:19There are areas of difference between administrations.
03:24Trump is not as enthusiastic about climate, at least at the government level, which is
03:29something Prime Minister Modi takes seriously.
03:32On the other hand, we've had problems with the Democrats, lecturers on civil rights and
03:37so on, which India has taken on board, but really more or less ignored.
03:44So America will come in facing that problem, it will have a number of regional issues,
03:49obviously West Asia, Russia, Ukraine, that war continues, but there are new ones on the
03:56horizon.
03:57North Korea is going to be the next big challenge for another American president.
04:02North Korea is deploying troops in Ukraine.
04:05The word is that America has warned that if those troops enter Ukraine, there will be
04:12a NATO response.
04:15And if that is the case, then we're heading for another major crisis on the Ukraine front.
04:20But on the economic side, I don't think oil is not an issue for the United States, one
04:25of the great accomplishments in the past 20 years is that America has become the world's
04:29largest oil producer.
04:30America is energy independent.
04:31But dollars can be, there has been a chat among the BRICS countries, but dollar can
04:40be a problem.
04:41There has been a chat among BRICS countries, they want to replace dollar to buy oil.
04:46No, I disagree.
04:48If you know what's happening inside the BRICS, Russia and China want to replace the dollar,
04:55Brazil and India oppose that.
04:57All they have said that we can do more trade using each other's currencies, but that is
05:03not the same thing as replacing the dollar.
05:06That is just inter-currency trade.
05:08But keep in mind, China is the biggest trader among all of them.
05:12We don't trade much with Brazil or with so on, but we don't have a currency that other
05:19countries want.
05:20Russia doesn't want U.S.
05:22We do not want Renminbi.
05:25Brazil does not want Renminbi.
05:27So you end up with a situation, none of the BRICS countries actually want each other's
05:30currencies.
05:31So you can do a little bit on the margins, yes, but the fundamental idea of a BRICS currency,
05:38which is what Russia proposed, a gold-backed currency that would slowly push out the dollar,
05:44because in their view, not incorrect, I think America is debasing the dollar through a massive
05:51deficit.
05:53That India and Brazil vetoed.
05:54They said we're not supporting that because we believe that will fundamentally support
05:58China.
05:59It will not be in our interest to do so.

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