As Americans head to the polls, the election fever is palpable across the country, with experts from New York City analyzing the intense voter enthusiasm and the critical issues at play. This high-stakes election sees candidates tackling vital topics like economic recovery, healthcare, immigration, and global influence. Experts highlight voter turnout trends, the role of social media in shaping public opinion, and the potential impact on U.S. domestic and foreign policy. The election’s outcome could significantly influence not only America's future but also its global relationships.
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#USElections2024 #ElectionFever #HighStakesVoting #NYCExperts #VoterEnthusiasm
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00:00Paswati Mukherjee, their former diplomat, joining us on the broadcast, and also Irina Superman,
00:06geopolitical analyst and U.S. National Secretary, joining us from New York in the United States.
00:12I presume it's Irina. Sorry, Irina. Thank you. Let me begin with you first. You are on the eastern
00:18side of the United States, and the voting has already begun there. How is the sentiments,
00:25first of all? Secondly, any clear answers that people have, or you have,
00:32who is going to be the next president of the United States?
00:36Well, so far, the polls are still showing that it's too close. Kamala Harris is in national
00:45polls. Kamala Harris is pulling slightly ahead, but still within the margin of error. So it's
00:51still impossible to tell. Trump appears to have a better chance in North Carolina and a couple of
00:59the other swing states. Kamala seems to be doing better in Pennsylvania and possibly Michigan. But
01:09again, most of these six out of seven swing states are also still within the margin of error,
01:16and it's hard to say who is in the lead. One of the things that has been noted by
01:23Nate Silver, a famous pollster, is herding, meaning that the polls are trying to overcompensate
01:33for misreporting in favor of candidates other than Trump in the past swing state reporting.
01:42So they may be giving, they may be underscoring, underreporting Kamala Harris's favorability in
01:50those states. But again, it's hard to say, and everything could change today depending
01:57on the numbers of people who turn out. Right, Irina. Vasudevan, obviously, it's a
02:05high voltage election, and as much as the United States is watching it with bated breath,
02:12far away in India too, ma'am, the implications and the expectations are also high. And we saw
02:19what happened with the markets, whether it was related to the US elections or not, but the kind
02:24of nosedive it saw yesterday. Obviously, the thinking caps are on. Diplomatically, ma'am,
02:30talking about India's relations with the United States, how important it is as of now for India
02:39to have a like-minded setup, to have a friend in the White House. And if that be the case,
02:45then who is that friend, in your opinion? Well, first of all, I would like to say for
02:52the sake of the American viewers, that India understands this is a strictly American internal
02:58affair, who the Americans vote in a democracy to select as their president. Unfortunately,
03:04there are many Western countries that try to interfere in India's elections, but we never
03:09interfere in elections of other countries outside India. It's up to the Americans to decide who
03:14their president should be. That being said, I do believe as a professional diplomat, that there is
03:20a broad understanding, cutting across the political divide in Democrats and Republicans, about the
03:27importance of the strategic partnership with India. But how that is articulated, how it is
03:32implemented, differs from administration to administration. As far as Kamala Harris is
03:39concerned, when she first became vice president, and she was invited to visit India, she never
03:45visited India. When she first became vice president, she underlined the fact that for her, her Black
03:52roots are much more important for her, and she considers herself to be Black, that I can fully
03:58understand the compulsion. There is a huge Black community out there. However, I'm also told, and
04:04I've worked with Africans for a long time, that a descendant of a Black from Africa, like Obama's
04:12father was Kenyan, is completely different from the descent of a Black from the Caribbean,
04:20because the Caribbean unfortunately did have a certain involvement in the slave trade a couple
04:25of centuries ago. So these are all notions which people in India don't know. So I'm saying this for
04:30the sake of your viewers. Whoever will be elected president, India will find a way to work with the
04:36President of the United States. Who would be more useful? It makes no difference. Who would be more
04:43amenable to work with India and to put the strategic partnership ahead in the perception of
04:49many policymakers, diplomats, strategic thinkers, etc. A Trump presidency would be easier for us to
04:56handle, because when President Trump was president, he did not implement many of the things he had
05:03threatened. The perception here is he will not implement many of the things he's threatening to
05:09get votes. But he had a very good relationship with India. He had an excellent bonhomie with our
05:14Prime Minister. When he came here, his visit was a huge success. When our Prime Minister went to
05:20U.S., it was a completely sold-out success. So we do believe also that President Trump
05:28is less likely, like the Republican Party, to continuously raise irritants in the bilateral
05:34relationship, the manner in which the middle and lower levels of the State Departments have done
05:39during the Biden presidency, giving the impression that while the top levels of the
05:43State Department fully support the strategic partnership with India, there are elements in
05:49the middle and lower levels that are still aligned to the old policy of hyphenation with Pakistan,
05:56not regarding India as a crucial player, etc. And unfortunately, the Biden administration
06:03has not been able to control it. The question then arises, Pankaj, why blame Kamala Harris?
06:08She comes with the baggage, because she was Vice President of the United States.
06:11She is still Vice President. So whatever baggage of Biden is there, unfortunately,
06:18it will fall on her shoulders. From that perspective, therefore, from a purely
06:24cold and calculated India's core national interest perspective, I think a Trump presidency
06:31would be better for us. But if it is not, we will find a way to work with Kamala Harris,
06:36as we have always worked with every elected American president. It's not a problem for us.
06:41We have a huge lobby in the U.S. on both sides, and we will work around whatever problems there are.
06:50Absolutely. Can't agree more, Tapa Suni ma'am, with you. I mean, very succinctly put here,
06:55the role here at UBSH, if you see, is not a small one that Indians play there. And Irina,
07:02definitely, I would... You can go to Irina. Irina, what do you think about the policies?
07:10What kind of move U.S. can make or the new president can make towards India,
07:15regarding the strategic partnership or other policies?
07:20I think either candidate or the president is going to have a strong and growing relation
07:26with India. I think China, for instance, is going to remain a threat no matter who is in
07:31the Oval Office. But I think the relationship will have a slightly different focus,
07:38depending whether it's a Republican or a Democrat with Donald Trump. There will likely be
07:44some tensions over tariffs, possibly the migration and the working visa issue that has been
07:51in the process of discussions under Biden may face some difficulties. And the energy question
08:00will be more domestic focused, but Trump has also supports the idea of nuclear energy,
08:07in that he... That is one thing that he and Kamala Harris have in common. He will likely
08:13be far less focused on Russia and far more focused on the Middle East and threats in the
08:19Pacific, coming from the Middle Eastern angle and also countering China. And therefore,
08:27the Quad will likely return to the idea of a security focus. And probably there's also going
08:37to be a greater emphasis on bilateral relations with India over multilateral alliances,
08:43although I don't think the Quad is going to go away. Harris will probably continue to focus
08:51on energy development and energy support and humanitarian and medical projects that started
08:59under Biden. She will probably continue the Biden administration legacy, focusing
09:08on democracy and human rights issues. The Halestan issue will probably remain somewhere
09:16on the radar. And of course, there'll probably be some concern over the India-Russia relations.
09:24I don't think there's going to be a radical change in course. I think there'll be a continuation
09:29of the technology investments, for instance, and a focus also on divesting from China over
09:37rare earths. So I think both administrations, in that case, will probably be looking towards India
09:46as one of the leading partners.
09:52Vasudevan, since Kamala Harris is obviously one of the front-runners and associated with her
10:02is not just the American sentiment, but also a lot of feminist issues. I mean, the issue of
10:08abortion, the issue of maternity leaves, all of them are weighing heavy on the US voters' minds.
10:16One of the key issues that the Indian diaspora faces there is the spouse's role as far as the
10:24H-1B visa is concerned. There has been a growing demand by the Indian community there, the diaspora
10:30that lives there, which is working there on H-1B visa, if the male counterpart is working or the
10:36female is working. The spouse, till now, hasn't been able to get the same rights according to them
10:44to work and to earn, if time permits. In that scenario, do you feel that, somewhere down the
10:51line, Kamala Harris understanding the sentiments of the housewives and the working women could
10:58ease these things out in the years to come?
11:02I don't think so. I think under pressure from MAGA and the Republican Party, she has actually
11:10much closer to Trump's position on as far as immigration is concerned.
11:15Immigration.
11:16It is not at all the original Kamala Harris as far as immigration is concerned. Secondly,
11:23the voters' minds are made up. And unlike in India, where most, 90% Indian women believe
11:32that abortion is a fundamental right for women, the same is not true in the United States.
11:38And there are many, many women groups, very conservative groups that are opposed to abortion.
11:44So we must not look at American society through Indian lenses. It is a very different society.
11:51It is a very polarized society. There are some pretty conservative groups out there. I've been
11:56in New York City for three years working for a firm in Michigan, New York. And I was amazed to
12:02see that in many ways, how backward American women are compared to educated Indian women,
12:09and how much they take, which an Indian woman would never take.
12:13So that was an eye opener for me, in fact. So please don't think that every single
12:19woman voter in the United States is going to vote Kamala Harris because she's strong on abortion.
12:25Not at all. In fact, this is again a highly polarizing debate. And the fact that a lot of
12:35black male voters have been scolded by Obama for not supporting Harris also shows how
12:42misogynistic is the American society. When you look at South Asia, all the countries of South
12:49Asia, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh have all had women presidents or prime ministers.
12:56And here is the only superpower in the world where whose men do not want to have a woman as
13:03president. It also shows how socially backward the American males are compared to us. So these are
13:10all things that Indians don't realize. They think they have a lot of money, so they must be ahead
13:14of us socially. Not at all. There is a huge opinion even among black men that they don't want Kamala
13:20Harris because she's a woman. So that outweighs whatever support she has on the abortion issue.
13:28Basically, in my perspective, this election will be won or lost by people judging the
13:36perspective of both candidates on the state of the American economy and on immigration. These are the
13:42two issues. And I don't see Kamala Harris helping the Indian community. She never did so when she
13:49was vice president. I see no reason why she will do it as president. If she becomes president,
13:55she will help the black community. She considers herself to be black. She does not consider
13:59herself to be of Indian origin. Absolutely. Absolutely. Irina, do you think the voters
14:09are looking at Kamala Harris? At least she claims to be black, as Baswati
14:16ma'am just mentioned. But the jury is still out. The debate is still on. And her Indian roots are
14:23also at times referred to the samosa caucus that we have very famously referred to as in the power
14:30corridors of the White House. How do you think Kamala Harris is navigating through these tough
14:38scenarios there? I think interestingly enough, she hasn't made identity politics a big part of her
14:45campaign in the sense of her ethnic background. I think the gender fault line has been far more
14:51prominent in this election, both in terms of who is turning out to vote for which candidate,
14:58and in terms of Kamala Harris's own focus and campaign. So I actually think that outside
15:05purely domestic issues, I think gender is far likely to be the focus of her social activity
15:14and the social issue side of her presidency than sort of racial and ethnic issues. I also don't
15:24think that her claim that she's far closer to her black roots is going to necessarily bias her
15:32against India on any sort of cultural level. I think if anything, it's her political views that
15:40are going to be challenged in terms of excessive focus on a very narrow understanding of the word
15:48democracy and on the human rights issues and the types of lobbies that are particularly keen to
15:55pressure a democratic administration. But I don't think that's going to be affected by her upbringing
16:01or cultural proximity. In fact, I think she will be pretty much open to cultural
16:08engagement, at least on domestic level. I haven't seen anything that would show the opposite.