• last week
Vice President Kamala Harris heads into Election Day with polling averages showing a near-tie with former President Donald Trump in the “blue wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—considered her clearest path to the 270 electoral votes she needs to win the election.

Read the full story on Forbes: https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/11/05/election-day-2024-here-are-harris-clearest-paths-to-victory-live-updates/

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Transcript
00:00Vice President Kamala Harris heads into Election Day with polling averages showing a near tie
00:05with former President Donald Trump in the blue-wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania,
00:11and Wisconsin, considered her clearest path to the 270 electoral votes she needs to win
00:17the election.
00:18Harris will hit exactly 270 electoral votes if she wins all three northern swing states,
00:24plus all of the other non-swing states President Joe Biden won in 2020, and the electoral votes
00:30he won in Maine and Nebraska, which are the only two states that split their votes.
00:36Harris could also repeat Biden's 2020 path to victory by winning 6 of the 7 swing states,
00:42with the exception of North Carolina, earning her 303 electoral votes, but the prospect
00:47looks less likely considering most polls show Trump ahead in Arizona, North Carolina, and
00:53Georgia.
00:54Though the margins are within less than 2.5 points in all three states, so the race could
00:59swing either way.
01:01A decline in Republican-leaning, non-college-educated white voters, coupled with a rise in college-educated
01:07white voters, who are increasingly Democratic, could benefit Harris in the blue wall, while
01:13growing diversity in North Carolina and Georgia, along with a leftward shift among suburban
01:18voters, could also help Harris, though Republicans have a natural edge in both states.
01:24A repeat of polling flaws from 2020 and 2016 could lead to an electoral college sweep for
01:30either candidate.
01:32All seven swing states have average polling margins of 2.2 points or less, meaning that
01:37if polls are off by just 2-3 points in favor of one candidate, they could win by a landslide.
01:44For more on this story, check out Sarah Dorn's article in the link in the description.

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