Visit our website:
http://www.france24.com
Like us on Facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24.English
Follow us on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/France24_en
Category
đź—ž
NewsTranscript
00:00Now Donald Trump's history of strong support for Israel and intense pressure on Iran coupled with his insistence
00:06During the campaign that the war in Gaza should end quickly raise so many questions over how his second
00:13Presidency will affect the region a region in a very much pivotal moment here at France 24 Emerald Maxwell has this
00:22They said he will start a war. I'm not gonna start a war. I'm gonna stop wars
00:26Donald Trump says he will end the wars in Gaza and Lebanon
00:30But he did not specify during his campaign how he would approach it nor has he outlined a clear vision for post-war Gaza
00:39During his first presidential term. He led perhaps the most pro-israel policy of any u.s. Administration
00:46endorsing Israeli settlements in the West Bank
00:48recognizing its sovereignty over the Golan Heights and
00:51Jerusalem as Israel's capital
00:54All barriers to peace with Palestine
00:57But once close Trump's relationship with Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu is not what it once was. I
01:04Think Trump now
01:06He has different calculation
01:09He never forget that Netanyahu
01:11disregarded him for months when he was weak when he was under
01:16Under investigation of everything Netanyahu sees an opportunity and but the dynamics have changed compared to four years ago
01:23Another big question is how Trump will approach Iran
01:26Tehran was in Trump's crosshairs during his first administration
01:30he unilaterally withdrew the u.s. From the Iran nuclear deal and
01:34imposed a maximum pressure policy on the country with harsh sanctions crippling its economy a
01:40Second term could mean more hardship for Iran at a pivotal time
01:45For now, the Iranian regime is playing down that possibility
01:49Right now the country isn't overly concerned about Trump winning today
01:54Iran's economy has the capacity to withstand these challenges
01:59Relations between the u.s. And Saudi Arabia flourished during Trump's first term
02:04bonded over their shared foe Iran
02:07Trump could now push for normalization of relations between the kingdom and Israel
02:12By expanding the Abraham Accords, which he presided over that saw Israel normalize relations with four other Arab states
02:20Since then though the regional dynamics have changed
02:24Riyadh and Tehran have entered a new chapter of detente while Saudi Arabia has also grown closer to China
02:32Emerald Maxwell setting up here our guest Ahmed forward Al-Qaeda whose resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council
02:38Who's been living and breathing this story over the past 24 48 hours and perhaps beyond
02:42But thanks for me with us here for us 24. We appreciate your presence most of all
02:46What is your sense of what Donald Trump means for the Middle East?
02:52well, certainly Trump is highly unpredictable as a
02:56Person nevertheless, we expect that this will be a Trump 2.0 presidency such that he's gonna build upon some of the experiences
03:03He's had in his first term
03:04I think we can expect some kind of an evolution to the conflict when it comes to the war in Gaza
03:09He's pledged to stop it
03:11He I think is going to place immense pressure on Prime Minister Netanyahu to wrap it up
03:16So such that by the time he's inaugurated on January 20th, the conflict is over the million-dollar question is what's the price?
03:24What's the carrot that he's going to offer?
03:27Netanyahu in exchange for pausing the war and that likely may entail some form of annexation of the West Bank
03:34being accepted and tolerated by the United States as a matter of policy and did that annexation, of course wouldn't be
03:40Tolerated by Palestinians who are there. That's one big sticking point
03:44Another issue, of course is that Joe Biden has been a real staunch
03:47Supporter and backer of Israel so far even as Netanyahu was speaking out in favor of Trump ironically
03:53Is it likely that Trump's support for Israel will be less strong than that of Biden?
03:59Well on the one hand Trump is interested in calming down these regional wars and that may conflict with
04:06Netanyahu's desires to get the United States involved in striking Iran both as revenge for October 7 and
04:13Supporting all these proxies but also to weaken Tehran's nuclear program on the other hand
04:19We expect that. Mr. Trump is going to be tough on Iran precisely because of
04:25His past experiences with them he feels strongly that he deterred Iran and that mr
04:31Biden had failed to do so and and we also discovered the the alleged intelligence assessments claiming Iran try to assassinate
04:39Mr. Trump or at least some senior members of his cabinet. So that is going to guide his presidency
04:45That is going to play a major role. I don't expect. Mr
04:49Trump is going to be less staunch of a supporter of Israel on the other hand
04:55I also think that he has a vendetta with mr. Netanyahu. He doesn't like him personally
05:00He doesn't like that Netanyahu didn't stand by him when he claimed that the elections were stolen in
05:062020
05:07Lastly, we also know that he's a this is his final term as president and that may very well drive a hard bargain when it
05:14Comes to his negotiations with the Israelis that issue of annexation of the West Bank
05:19This is something that obviously would cause big problems in UN circles too because the behavior of settlers
05:26Israeli settlers or you might call them trespassers it's in another context setting up their homes there
05:32Illegally, it's something that has brought lots of people internationally out saying that this must be stopped. There should be an end to it
05:40Is this going to be a big issue going forward?
05:42Do you think if Trump says yes, go ahead annex part of the West Bank?
05:45Well depends on who he brings on board as the US ambassador to Israel if it's going to be David Friedman
05:51Which is a very highly likely possibility based on the current assessments
05:56that's going to be a serious problem for the
05:59Palestinians in the sense that David Friedman published a book this year called one Jewish state in which he openly and clearly and overtly
06:07Celebrates not just calls for it, but celebrates the annexation of the West Bank as being the only
06:13realistic and pragmatic way
06:15Forward this is going to be a disaster for the Palestinian Authority. We expect that mr. As if mr
06:21Friedman pushes in that direction
06:23That's going to be coupled by the cutting off of US funding to the Palestinian Authority to UNRWA
06:29We expect that this could trigger a potential third intifada of a source
06:34The Palestinian Authority is no longer going to have an incentive to coordinate with Israel on a security issues to prevent
06:41Palestinian attacks against settlers
06:44Furthermore, I think this is going to cause a big issue with the the main winners
06:49I think of Trump's presidency at this point are the Saudis who want a mutual defense treaty with the United States and
06:55A Republican controlled Congress is going to be able to codify that so that it's not subject to revocation by the income by an incoming
07:04future administration
07:05However, the Saudis made it clear that there needs to be a an irreversible pathway towards Palestinian statehood to normalize
07:13Relationships with Israel and achieve that mutual defense
07:16And that is a real sticking point, isn't it that that sort of real difference there?
07:21Which is something that has not been crossed since Israel was established the idea that there should be a Palestinian state
07:27Can I just part that there and talk a bit about Gaza and in particular that plan that was published by Jared Kushner?
07:34Trump's son-in-law for an economic development of the Gaza Strip
07:38Which looked great on paper in terms of turning into a kind of Dubai for the Gaza Strip in that kind of sense
07:45Singapore he suggested for the West Bank, but again that plan economic plan perhaps you could see how Kushner Trump
07:53Might gain from that in terms of investment, but about the Palestinian people once again, but left thinking what is in it for them?
08:00What is their future? How do they control their future coming forward?
08:04Well, I'm a major proponent of economic development for the Palestinian people and I've been highly critical with this plan work
08:10Do you think well on the one hand we know that there needs to be
08:14Economic sustainability and development too because Gaza's unfortunately under Hamas has become a dependent on the other hand
08:21We also know that economic
08:24Economic peace alone
08:26Cannot achieve the aspirations of Palestinian people that put the Palestinian people for independence for freedom for self-determination
08:32And that thing about freedom freedom of movement is a big problem, isn't it?
08:35Because they can't freely go travel to and from their territories. Can they?
08:40Precisely that and one of the issues that I've always promoted is a non-israeli and a non
08:45Egyptian access point leveraging Gaza's position over the Mediterranean via an airport and a seaport
08:51I think Gaza's development is entirely attainable and I genuinely believe that this very likely could be Gaza's last war and
08:59especially if this ceasefire and hostage deal are coupled with political transformation in terms of governance in terms of
09:06Gaza no longer being a
09:08resistance platform
09:09But instead being the crown jewel of the Palestinian people being the pride and joy the beating heart of a future Palestinian state
09:16but once again
09:17Economic peace alone, which the last deal of the century that mr. Trump and Jared Kushner promoted it reeked of economic
09:27Economic development that is separated from political rights and political freedoms and in a sense of
09:34independence and sovereignty and national identity that will only
09:38Temporarily forestall future conflict if it is not coupled with political progress those rights for the Palestinian people have to be central
09:46Then that comes to the idea of the two-state solution
09:48Not Palestinians living in as we saw a couple of weeks ago an idea published which involved British mercenaries
09:55Gated communities, which if you've read between the lines one could say it sounded more like internment camps rather than gated communities
10:02that is no real future developments to give a
10:06flourishing Palestinian
10:07statehood or even flourish flourishing Palestinian individual lives is it and that's where the
10:12Policies of Prime Minister Netanyahu have been particularly nefarious and the Gaza Strip in the conduct of this war in the West Bank even prior
10:20To this war when he used Hamas's control of Gaza to play off the Palestinians against each other to keep them divided
10:27I still maintain that the two-state solution regardless of its final borders as a
10:31Concept is the only viable path forward in which you have two people with their own space with separation
10:38After all this trauma we need two distinct spaces and the two-state solution and as what I've been calling the Palestinian
10:45leadership and other
10:47Pragmatic Palestinian leaders to understand that there may need to be a transitional period that requires phases
10:53To achieve the two-state solution. It might start with limited sovereignty
10:58It might start with limited territories and I understand the Israeli security concerns particularly in the wake of October 7
11:05But at the end of the day
11:06no matter the borders the two-state solution cannot be dispensed for Israel for Israel's own security and longevity and
11:14It's being integrated in the region
11:16certainly for the Palestinian people's long-term interest in having a space that they can call a state and being a part of
11:23Israel's
11:25integration in the region
11:26We saw I support the Abraham Accords
11:28But bypassing the Palestinians is not a sustainable strategy and in that regard
11:33I think the Saudis are going to be interesting to look at and and to watch out for
11:39because Mohammed bin Salman and and and the promise that he made to not have
11:44normalization with Israel without
11:45Palestinian statehood may very well be the Palestinian people's last hope to achieve the two states and of course that statement from
11:53Mohammed bin Salman is extremely important that he is for
11:56Palestinian statehood in some way shape or form a definite a place which is a Palestinian homeland
12:02That is something he's 100% for
12:05Trump's position then one has the impression that I could ebb flow that could change
12:11How it sort of seems to him on any given day nonetheless. He's going to want his deal
12:16He's cut of something. That's the way he operates. So what do you think? He's looking for? I
12:21Honestly think he's looking for legacy. I think he's looking to probe to prove that his
12:28Unpredictability is a successful form of foreign policy. I also think he's looking out for his own interest potentially
12:35Though I will say at his age and and I mean he's achieved financial greatness
12:41He's achieved, you know, he's obtained the most powerful position that one could hope for in the world
12:46I genuinely think he's going to be driven by ego and legacy and that will
12:51Potentially entail him wanting to feel to prove that he solved something that no other American leader indeed world leader
12:58Could could address but I also think
13:01He's subject to manipulation by those who are around him
13:05And I worry about the team that he's going to surround himself by not just the US ambassador
13:10But as a host of advisors
13:12we've seen the hollowing out of the State Department during his tenure where a lot of policies and files were
13:18Concentrated in the White House in his inner circle and that's
13:23Essentially locked out a lot of the career
13:25Professionals because the sort of five-star generals if you like think of the military things who would be with him
13:29Who were with him in the previous mandate, of course, they've all turned against him now
13:33There is a different kind of advisor around him. This could be a very nefarious move precisely that and this could be a very
13:41Politically driven move that isolates the professionals both in the State Department Department of Defense military experts
13:48We've seen some of the more conservative think-tanks kind of trying to build up excitement around certain programs that they
13:56Want to get in front of mr. Trump
13:59There's a belief that he's going to be a bit more cautious about who he chooses to surround himself with but again
14:05That's one set of considerations
14:07The other set is what the Saudis and what the Emiratis and what the Palestinians come up with as a cohesive unified
14:15Vision a unified front for it to deal with mr. Trump. I mean you've spoken to
14:21The relevant Palestinians do they trust Trump?
14:24Do they feel that this is someone that they can work with on the one hand?
14:28Absolutely, not. They do not after the last administration on the other hand
14:32there is very much so a pragmatic realization that the Biden administration and and potentially a Harris administration could have been a
14:41continuation of Biden's
14:43Inert policies that are lackluster that are inadequate that there could be an opportunity
14:48To break the stalemate and that only somebody as bombastic and as unpredictable and as ferocious as mr
14:55Trump could take on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who was likely to remain in power for the foreseeable future
15:02What really concerns me is what happens in the next two and a half months if mr. Biden somehow escalates towards?
15:11Netanyahu and we have that 30-day deadline approaching from that letter that the State Department and Department of Defense sent to the Israelis
15:18warning about consequences to foreign aid if
15:21Conditions in Gaza aren't addressed will mr
15:25Biden escalate with the Israelis and withhold some of the offensive munitions or withhold some of the foreign aid
15:31If he does so that could in a sense tie Trump's hands forcing him to come in
15:38Bombastically as the pro-israel president in on January 20th, so that may inadvertently actually
15:45Reduce the likelihood of meaningful action that could stop the wars in Gaza potentially in Lebanon
15:51So that's what I think we should all be looking for in the next two and a half months
15:56I could when you came in I said humorously that we could have an hour chatting and I really mean we could have had
16:01An hour chatting but sadly time has moved on and we need to move on with the news
16:05Ahmed forward Al Qatib residents seen a fairly Atlantic Council
16:08Thank you for coming here and sharing your insight
16:11Into what is one of the most important stories at the moment what's happened in the Middle East?
16:14Of course Donald Trump newly elected as president of the u.s. Will have a large voice in what happens next
16:20Thank you, sir for joining us here from so before we appreciate your time. Thank you for having me
16:24Next we'll turn to the situation