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00:00When we get to the conference market, Casey holds at plus 185, then it's the Ravens, then
00:09it's the Bills, and then there is a gap.
00:13Do either of you, and I'll go to you first, Donnie, do you find yourself getting close
00:19to latching on to one of that big three or still letting it play out?
00:26You still have to let it play out, but I don't want to cop out of the answer, and the reason
00:28I say this is, if you ask me today, Donnie, is the most talented team in the NFL the Kansas
00:33City Chiefs?
00:34No, they're not.
00:35I love their coach, a generational quarterback, everything seems to fit, they know how to
00:39win, and then you take a look at that plus 185 price, and you say, would you like to
00:42bet that?
00:43Not necessarily, but we have to understand this, we're not going to be playing these
00:46football games on neutral sites here.
00:48When you get to the playoffs, it's a one-game playoff, and you know where it's going to
00:51be, Joe?
00:52In Kansas City at Arrowhead, so you tell me right now, can the Ravens beat them?
00:56Yes, they can.
00:57Can the Buffalo Bills beat them?
00:58Yes, they can.
00:59Can the Texans beat them?
01:00Probably so when they're healthy.
01:01But you know where I'm not going to bet it?
01:03In the AFC Championship game at freezing cold Arrowhead when they're at home to say, yes,
01:07these teams are going to win, Joe.
01:08That's it.
01:09Again, we're not playing the AFC Championship at a neutral site.
01:12It's going to be in Kansas City.
01:13They will be in that game.
01:14I can't bet against it.
01:15No, I can't, but I will say that I would take a shot on Baltimore.
01:19You know, about a week ago before they lost to Cleveland, they were playing just as good
01:23as the Detroit Lions.
01:24They lose that game, right, and it's like, okay, they have three losses on the year after
01:28starting 0-2.
01:30They're not the same team that we thought defensively, certainly, but they could score,
01:34Kev, on any defense, and that includes the Kansas City Chiefs.
01:37You now add Derrick Henry in terms of the offense.
01:40You bring in Deontay Johnson to solidify the wide receiver core.
01:44We saw Rashad Bateman, Mark Andrews healthy now being an option.
01:48I like the way Baltimore's playing.
01:50I think right now, from an offensive perspective, as good as anybody.
01:55So, if we're looking at the big three, I would put money on Baltimore, but I will say, big
01:59picture, if we're, you know, who could potentially sneak up?
02:04I have my eye on the Chargers now, and I didn't think that they would actually make some noise
02:09in year number one, but we see the progression of Justin Herbert with the passing attack.
02:14When Quinton Johnson gets involved last week, 100 yards, Josh Palmer, that defense now is
02:18starting to come around.
02:20They might be spoilers to some of these teams.
02:22They're not bad value.
02:23I'm not suggesting they have what it takes to year one, but it's a lottery ticket right
02:27now.
02:28I think the interesting thing, you mentioned a team like the Chargers, the Texans, the
02:32Bengals, this, I think what happens with Kansas City is it feels like the only two teams that
02:38could beat the Chiefs are the Ravens and the Bills, where the teams that could beat the
02:43Ravens and the Bills, there's every single one of the teams that make the playoffs.
02:47And that is the issue that you then will run into, where Kansas City will max out at playing
02:53either Baltimore or Buffalo, if they even play one of them.
02:57I continuously stare at this trio, and nobody's pulled me in.
03:02I was very low on Buffalo coming into the season.
03:05Obviously, I was wrong to the degree that I thought, but they've not sold me to bet
03:11them.
03:12I still, I don't know if I'll ever, and it didn't even actually impact me that much.
03:16I don't know if I'll ever get over what Baltimore did in that conference championship game.
03:19I still cannot believe that that was a real thing that really happened, that they forgot
03:23that they were the best run team in football against a team that could not stop the run
03:26and then showed up and did not run the football.
03:28I just, mind blown, and I refuse to bet on Kansas City because, I mean, you guys have
03:33heard me talk about the Chiefs this year.
03:35I just, I'm so underwhelmed with the way it's all playing out and at the number, I'm not
03:41there.
03:42So then I wonder about Houston or Cincinnati.
03:45I mean, you want to get crazy?
03:47What if the Jets crash the party?
03:50I then will have to let the bracket get settled and see what type of pathway I need to walk
03:55to make any of this possible, and I think that's why for me right now, I continuously
04:02just look towards Philadelphia.
04:04You know, we always talk about the free bet future strategy, right?
04:07And if I put them back into the NFL market, they go towards the Philadelphia Eagles.
04:11I wonder if, Donnie, that's a part of the reason why you have just continued to key
04:15on the Detroit Lions, where within that conference, it's maybe a little bit easier to sift through
04:20and maybe even find value compared to the AFC.
04:23Yeah, you're trying to, because you're trying to take a decent price.
04:25Now, those Detroit Futures were up around that plus 385 price.
04:28They've come certainly down, but I still like them.
04:29So it's like, hey, if you're going to continue to take some of those free bets, it's going
04:32to be on Detroit and the NFC.
04:33But if there was, again, a lightning in a bottle team, and I preface this by saying
04:37I did not like them coming into the season, I don't like them right now, but if things
04:42turn in their direction, they stay healthy and can make the playoffs.
04:46Joe Burrow going toe to toe with anybody with that offense when it's full gas, Joe, they
04:50can be hell on wheels.