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00:00Ukraine is on edge this evening, the effect of President Putin's decision to use an intermediate
00:11range into the continental hypersonic missile yesterday, causing a wider concern too amongst
00:16NATO members. The Polish Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, describing the situation as a threat
00:21of global conflict that he called, quote, real and serious. Ukraine's parliament cancelled
00:28today a session there over fears of an attack on the city's government district. It's been
00:33a week of escalation, threats, since the news emerged at the weekend that President Biden
00:38had given the green light for Ukraine to use its long-range ballistic missiles deep into
00:42Russian territory. Soon after, Britain also lifted its self-imposed restrictions on storm
00:48shadow cruise missiles, which had mirrored the US position on how far it could travel
00:53into Russia. So we're going to look at the situation tonight, how it's developed and
00:57where it could be heading. We are in a phase that Western leaders call, quote, strategic
01:03ambiguity. Green light's given, President Zelensky has said, the missiles, quote, will
01:08speak for themselves. But the consequence of Russia's response is causing deep consternation,
01:14this continued escalation, which Ukraine this week, should be said, marks a grim anniversary.
01:19It's 1,000 days since Russia's full-scale invasion of the country. Let's hear from two
01:24EU leaders this afternoon. We're going to hear from both Donald Tusk in Poland and also
01:30Viktor Orban in Hungary.
01:37The war in the East is entering a decisive phase. We all know this. We feel that the
01:43unknown is approaching. None of us knows the end of this conflict. We only know that it
01:49is currently taken on very dramatic dimensions. The events of the last few days show that
01:56this threat is really serious and real when it comes to global conflict.
02:06I believe that in the next two months, we Europeans should not base our approach on
02:11the rules of Western European-style communication policies, but rather on wartime logic. We
02:17must proceed carefully, weighing every sentence and word according to the principles of common
02:22sense. Otherwise, we'll see what happens.
02:25Well, let's cross to Germany and bring in the retired American general, Lieutenant General
02:30Ben Hodges. He commanded in Afghanistan, Iraq, and was the commander general of the US Army
02:35in Europe from 2014 to 2017. Great to have you on the program, General Hodges, this evening.
02:42First of all, just step back a second, because if I'm right in saying you were one of the
02:46key signatories. You sent an open letter to British Foreign Secretary David Lammy,
02:51to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Two months ago, you called for a lifting of restrictions
02:55on weapons of the West to strike deep into Russia back then. So this is something you
02:59felt strongly about for a while. Tell us why and how you feel about the decision by President
03:05Biden this week.
03:07Well, obviously, I'm happy that President Biden finally did this. It should have been
03:12done two years ago. You can see how much the Russians dread Ukraine having this capability
03:19now that can destroy Russian headquarters, Russian logistics, Russian artillery. That's
03:25what the Russians have wanted to avoid. They know that they cannot win this war unless
03:32the West quits. The war actually started, as you know, and your listeners know, back
03:36in 2014. And after almost 11 years, Russia, with every advantage, still only controls
03:44about 18% of Ukraine. Their economy is in tatters. They can only hope that we will quit.
03:52This is why they have launched this intermediate range missile. It's a sign, to me, of their
03:59desperation.
04:00We're going to talk about President Putin's response in a minute, Ben. But I'm really
04:05interested just to take your point a bit further. So you talk about these, what you
04:09call highly defended strategic targets. You talked about headquarters, ammunitions depots,
04:16sites that are key to launching offensives. You've said before, I think, to deal with
04:22the sheer mass, the bulk of Russian troops, which has that advantage over Ukraine, you
04:27can only really deal with that successfully through precision. Tell us about that.
04:33Well, thank you. And you've touched on it very, very clearly. The advantage that Russia
04:38has of mass numbers. So think of the 50,000 Russian and North Korean troops that are being
04:45assembled to attack the Ukrainian bridgehead in Kursk. Most of them are not well trained,
04:52particularly the Russian troops. So they're mass. And the way the Russians employ them
04:57is by pounding the Ukrainian defenses over and over and over with artillery and rockets.
05:04So to coordinate these things, you have to have tactical headquarters and you have to
05:09have the artillery and rocket launchers. And then you have to have tens of thousands of
05:14rounds of artillery ammunition. So if you can eliminate those three things, it really
05:21undermines Russia's only advantage. And that's exactly what the Ukrainians did on the first
05:26chance to use the attack. They struck a large ammunition storage point in Bryansk, which is
05:33about 180 kilometres inside Russia. So not exactly deep inside Russia. And then, of course,
05:40the storm shadows were used to strike a Russian and North Korean headquarters. So I think this
05:46is exactly what Ukraine needs to do. And it looks to me that that's what they are targeting first.
05:52And those storm shadows have proved very effective, haven't they, in the past as well,
05:56last year in Crimea, hitting HQ, 34 Navy Russian staff killed. They actually don't have their fleet
06:04in Crimea anymore, the Black Sea fleet, as a result of that. From your perspective now, though,
06:10the US, the Pentagon saying today this wasn't an escalation. And yet we've seen the complete
06:16opposite in terms of rhetoric from Russia, aren't we? We're hearing from Vladimir Putin to say that
06:21this is a continuing escalation. And this is our response, this intermediate intercontinental
06:27ballistic missile. Tell me your thoughts on that and why it's causing such consternation in Europe.
06:34Well, I think that the Russians know that they're not going to use a nuclear weapon. I mean,
06:40they're not going to start a nuclear conflict because Ukraine destroyed an ammunition storage
06:45point. I mean, let's be practical and think through what we're talking about here. They're
06:49not going to start a nuclear war because there are zero positive or upsides for Russia if they
06:56do this. China and India have both told Russia, do not use a nuclear weapon, mainly because they
07:04don't want disruption of their access to cheap Russian gas. The United States has said,
07:09catastrophic consequences if you use a nuclear weapon. And there's no effect on the battlefield
07:16that will give Russia any kind of advantage if they employ a tactical nuclear weapon. So they
07:21know that they're not going to do this. But they also know that there are a lot of people in
07:28Washington, D.C. and in some European capitals that are terrified at the idea that, oh, my God,
07:34Russia might use a nuclear weapon. And so the Russians exploit that fear by doing exactly what
07:41they just did. It's a good point and actually echoes as we're speaking. Actually, we're just
07:46hearing from where you are in Germany, Annalena Bauerbach, a German foreign minister, saying that
07:51quote, the best protection for peace in Europe is supporting self-defence to Ukraine. She goes on to
07:56say, playing with fear is the recipe that Putin uses best. It's a recipe that he uses best,
08:04but seems to use it with some degree of success. Listen to the rhetoric of Donald Tusk today,
08:10the Polish prime minister, saying we are at a serious risk of heading towards a global conflict.
08:15What do you make of that? Because there is this careful balance, isn't there right now,
08:20of balancing rhetoric of fear versus a real reality. Do you see a mismatch in what Donald
08:27Tusk is saying or do you think he's right? Well, I think that European leaders, especially in Poland,
08:33they live close to the threat. I mean, not only do they touch Russia in Kaliningrad,
08:41but they also have Belarus and Ukraine right there. And Poland has a history with Russia that's,
08:48there's nothing good about that history. So they, of course they're concerned, which is why
08:52Poland is doing so much to build up their own defences. They've really become a leader
08:57in the alliance. And I suspect that they are not quite sure what the new US administration
09:03is going to do. So it seems to me that Prime Minister Tusk is one of the leaders in Europe
09:11that is going to represent a new centre of gravity for defence and security. So I pay
09:18attention to what he says. Let's take a look, because you just touched upon very clearly,
09:22actually, the Storm Shadow, the ATACMS, the American missiles, plus this intermediate
09:29missile from Russia. Let's just take a look at the details that we have of their capabilities.
09:34So if you're looking at the British, French-made Storm Shadow Scope, range of up to 250 kilometres,
09:39speed of 1,000 kilometres an hour. And we look at the stronger, well, the ATACMS,
09:44suitably named the US ballistic missiles, up to 300 kilometres range, 3,700 kilometres an hour.
09:50And then we go up to the Orishnik, essentially the hazelnut tree, the translation there,
09:54hypersonic intermediate range ballistic. The Russian used in Dnipro yesterday up to 5,000
10:00kilometres, a significant range, 10,000 kilometres an hour. Vladimir Putin say
10:05that's around three kilometres a second. So just talk us through militarily your thoughts around
10:13that and why there is such concern, or whether there is credence and reason to be concerned.
10:21Well, of course, Russia has been attacking civilian targets from the beginning. I
10:27wish that the international community would be more concerned about Russia's daily war crimes,
10:34the killing of civilians. Every single Russian officer that is in the chain of command that
10:38makes targeting decisions or launches enemy strikes, their name should be public, their
10:43faces should be on milk cartons, and they should know that they are never going to live in peace
10:48until they've been held to account. So that's one part of this. The second part of this,
10:53and your graphic there was actually very instructive. The range of the weapons that
10:59the US and UK and France have provided to Ukraine are clearly tactical level weapons. I mean,
11:07300 kilometres. You can barely reach inside of Russia with weapons like that. And of course,
11:14they're used to take out the headquarters and the logistics, as we just talked about,
11:20or the way they use the storm shadows in Sevastopol, again, which you alluded earlier,
11:26to destroy the maintenance facility in Sevastopol as well as the headquarters.
11:30Exactly what these things are intended to do. The 5,000 kilometre range of this intermediate
11:37range missile, you know, that's a completely different kind of weapon. So when we talk about
11:42who's escalating, first of all, there's no need or there's no benefit in getting into an argument
11:47or who did it first, you know, who's responsible. This war could end tomorrow if Vladimir Putin
11:53says, you know, I was wrong. I violated Ukrainian sovereignty. I've been killing civilians. We're
11:58stopping it. We're pulling out. Of course, he's not going to do that unless he sees that the West
12:04is not going to give in to their scaremongering. We know this from history, that if you look weak,
12:12that's what provokes aggression. But if you stand up, if you're strong and we provide Ukraine,
12:17who, by the way, Ukraine's doing all the fighting. They're not asking any of us to do anything except
12:22give them the tools. This war could have ended last year, actually. Let's have a listen, General
12:27Hodges. This is Sergei Lavrov, foreign minister in Russia, just a few hours ago, and he was,
12:32well, publicly at least, calibrating perhaps what he called a difficult relationship,
12:38a bad legacy that Joe Biden is putting on what could come with Donald Trump. Let's take a listen.
12:49Regarding the reaction to our response, as I understand it, Zelensky got scared.
12:57He directly began to accuse his hosts of leaving him unarmed in the face of such an action by Russia.
13:04Well, this is probably a useful result because it allowed at least to be closer to reality,
13:13to feel it on your own skin, I would say.
13:18As for what to expect from Biden and his outgoing administration,
13:23well, attacking supplies and allowing the British and French to use storm shadows and scalp missiles,
13:30of course, is an act of leaving a bad legacy to the next administration.
13:36General Hodges, I'm going to put this point to you, and I'll also bring in
13:39Emmanuel Shah as our correspondent in Kyiv as well, listening and bringing to this conversation.
13:44But General Hodges, just your thought there on the idea of the Trump presidency. I know one thing
13:49I've heard you talk about before in recent months, that if there are negotiations, there is a concern
13:54that Russia can just slow roll them effectively, continue pounding targets and say, well, we're
13:59trying, we're negotiating, it's not our fault. Well, of course, I expect that Russia will
14:06continue to deny responsibility for any of this, even though they obviously, and I think all serious
14:12people know that Russia was the aggressor back in 2014 and has continued to be doing that. They're
14:20the ones that are killing civilians, not the Ukrainians. Now, I think that the Biden administration
14:27did a good job on keeping 50 nations, leading 50 nations to stay focused on support for Ukraine.
14:34But the mistake that the Biden administration made was that they failed the critical test
14:39of clearly identifying why this is important for us, that this is not charity for Ukraine.
14:45This is for security and stability in Europe, as well as for the United States. It's about
14:51our economies. It's about making Russia live within its own borders, and also, of course,
14:57about deterring China. So if the president had been more clear about that, we would have had
15:03much better policies, capabilities would have been delivered by all of us. And like I say,
15:08I think this war should have ended last year. Listening to Foreign Minister Lavrov, who used to
15:13be one of the more, let's say, respected diplomats in Europe, he's the one that's going to have the
15:21terrible legacy because he's been continuing to push the lies and the false narratives from the
15:27Kremlin, and a legacy of failure because Russia is probably only a year away from actually being
15:36completely done from an economic standpoint with this war. General Hodges, I want to ask you about
15:42Germany in a moment. I just want to bring in Emmanuelle Scherz, our correspondent in Kyiv.
15:45Emmanuelle, just listening to Ben Hodges there, making clear just this fear game being played by
15:52Vladimir Putin as he sees it, as Annalena Baubach in Germany, the Foreign Minister also sees this
15:57as well. Just tell me about the reality on the ground in Kyiv today. I understand there was
16:01a session in Parliament cancelled today because of concern of another attack.
16:06Yes, there were concerns that the Parliament might be under attack during an air raid alert. That's
16:12why it was evacuated. That being said, Ukrainians today are not more worried than they were
16:17yesterday. They know who is targeting them, and that's Russia. They have identified their aggressor
16:24since 2014, like Ben Hodges aptly reminded us. And of course, people here are very scared of the
16:34air raid alerts, of that risk of being targeted, because as we've mentioned,
16:40civilians are targeted by Russia here in Ukraine. However, they know what Russia is capable of.
16:46We also heard Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, saying in one of his latest addresses,
16:52our crazy neighbor has used a new missile against us. He cannot stand that people are living in
16:59dignity and freedom just in the neighboring country. And he's, as usual, fear-mongering
17:06among Ukrainians. And this just shows you how Ukrainians are feeling right now. Of course,
17:14there is fear. Is there more fear today than yesterday after the strike with this new missile,
17:22intermediary missile on Dnipro? No. Ukrainians perfectly know what, by whom they are targeted,
17:29and they are under no illusion that this is going to stop by the sole will of Vladimir Putin,
17:35who also, again, according to the president, has no real wish to stop this war.
17:41So we're hearing as we're speaking, more information coming from agencies,
17:45from the Kremlin, suggesting that, quote, quoting Vladimir Putin, saying there's no
17:48other weapons like the weapons that we have. Also, as well, news agencies from Reuters and AP
17:55suggesting that Ukraine is looking to obtain better quality, what they call the FAD, the U.S.
18:00Terminal High Altitude Area Defense Systems, upgrading its Patriot systems again, and also
18:06saying that, this is a senior general in the armed forces quoted, saying, according to our data,
18:11the number of these new Russian experimental missile systems are limited. So that will be
18:16some relief in Kyiv. You mentioned, Emmanuelle, as well, the attack on Dnipro. Do we know the
18:22extent of the damage there? Well, the army won't communicate on the extent of the damage for obvious
18:29strategic reasons. Now, the Ministry of Defense of Russia said that they had targeted the ammunition
18:36depot and industrial complex used by the Ukrainian military and that the strike was successful. So
18:42there's no way that we can verify this because the Ukrainian army will not confirm this. But what
18:47it shows is that Ukraine still is in need of more air defense system, not just regarding the strike
18:55here in Dnipro, but we also have to keep in mind that Ukraine and Ukrainians have been targeted all
19:00across the country daily since this summer. The numbers of aerial attacks has really increased.
19:10Today, the city of Sumy was struck once again by drones, kamikaze drones. And this time,
19:17for the first time in the region of Sumy, says its governor, there were shrapnel pieces in those
19:22kamikaze drones. They cannot carry huge explosive charges, but putting shrapnel pieces there, that
19:29means they can inflict maximum damage on people. And those are not military we're talking about.
19:34Those are civilians we're talking about. And in doing so, Russia is committing yet another war
19:39crime as it targets civilians, which are not a legitimate target of war.
19:44Emmanuel, great to talk to you. Emmanuel Shah is our correspondent in Kyiv.
19:48Listening to that, General Ben Hodges, I'm interested in two things. One, when we listen
19:52to the rhetoric of Vladimir Putin saying there's, quote, nothing else like this,
19:56this experimental missile, it seems on the face of it, it is propaganda. But
20:02what's your assessment of that? Well, first of all, I thought Emmanuel's report was
20:08very good. And I mean, she's there. And she said exactly what I would have expected, that Ukrainians
20:14are not more scared today than they were yesterday. They have been getting hit by the Russians
20:20starting 11 years ago, but intensively starting almost three years ago, as you pointed out.
20:28And of course, Russia has been using nuclear capable weapons from the very beginning. So
20:33this is not, I mean, the headlines that came out yesterday and the day before, like, oh my god,
20:38this is possibly an ICBM, nuclear capable, that's old news for the Ukrainians. But getting those
20:47kind of headlines, of course, is exactly what the Kremlin had hoped to achieve, is getting people
20:54alarmed. And I've seen Americans, some useful idiots talking about, we're closer to World War
21:02Three than ever. What a ridiculous statement by people that are not very well informed.
21:09The other point, closer to home where you are right now, is what's going on in Germany. You
21:13talked about the open letter you put out in the past to the Brits, to the Americans, to allow the
21:18use of long-range missiles. There's still a no from the Schultz, what's left of the remnants of
21:22the Schultz government on the Taurus missile system, and their traffic light coalition has
21:26collapsed. What's your take on, first of all, the difficulty for the German government in doing that,
21:32and also what difference that would make? Well, this has been a massive letdown or disappointment
21:41by Bundeskanzler Schultz. I think most Germans would want to see, in fact,
21:47Germany is the second largest contributor of aid to Ukraine, but also Chancellor Schultz is,
21:54I think, excessively afraid of doing something where Germany would be held
22:01vulnerable by the Russians. Unlike France and unlike the UK, Germany does not have its own
22:06nuclear weapon, and I think that figures, that weighs heavily on the Bundeskanzler as he thinks
22:12about what to do. But I think that this is all going to change in February. There's elections
22:18in Germany, of course, and you've got people like Friedrich Merz from the CDU who has said that if
22:24Russia doesn't stop, that he would immediately give Taurus to the Ukrainians. So he's going to
22:29be much more forward-leaning, and you've mentioned Annalena Baerbock a couple of times, she and
22:34Robert Habeck of the Green Party, I mean, they were arguing to provide weapons to Ukraine even
22:40before the large-scale invasion. So my view is that the majority of Germans want to see this
22:49done to help Ukraine. They understand the cost if Ukraine fails, that Germany will probably be the
22:56biggest loser in terms of economic impact and refugees coming to Germany from Ukraine. It's
23:03just not going to happen as long as Schultz is still in power. A final thought, Ben, is if you
23:08were advising the NATO leaders next week in this meeting with Ukraine over the defence assessment
23:15and what's happened, what would you be saying? I would say that, number one, we have to be very
23:20clear about the strategic objective, about why we're doing this, and what is the outcome that
23:25we all want. And the outcome that we all want is for Ukraine to defeat Russia, push them back to
23:31the 1991 boundaries. If you do that, that would secure the European security environment, that
23:39would improve the European security environment for decades. If we don't, we'll have missed a
23:45huge opportunity. Great to talk to you, Ben Hodges, retired American general, Lieutenant General
23:51in Afghanistan, Iraq, Commander General for the US Army in Europe. Thank you so much for your
23:56time this evening on France 24. Thanks, Cameron.