AccuWeather forecasters are warning of not just a winter storm that will affect pre-Thanksgiving travel, but of feet of snow around the Great Lakes over the holiday weekend.
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00:00John, this is that time of the year where we get into some pretty dynamic changes.
00:03We had Thursday night football with a snow globe type effect there into Cleveland.
00:08But we're looking ahead to another storm that's much broader than anything specifically tied
00:13to the lakes, at least in the short term.
00:15Yeah, the first phase of it is, that's right Jeff, good afternoon, and that's going to
00:18unfortunately result in some fairly widespread travel disruptions, very poorly timed with
00:23Wednesday into Thursday, which is of course big travel time periods, all associated with
00:29an area of low pressure that's going to be organizing from the inner mountain west to
00:32the central United States.
00:34And we've got some options on this one.
00:36A stronger storm can track further to the north and bring heavier amounts of snow to
00:40parts of northern New England down toward the Great Lakes, where a weaker storm system
00:44would pass further south with probably just a little bit of snow on the northern edge.
00:48So this is a pretty dynamic system.
00:50Stay tuned to AccuWeather.com and great resources on the AccuWeather app.
00:54Our winter cast feature tells you how much snow is to be expected in your backyard and
00:58then prospects for a little bit more, a little bit less, a great resource during a very important
01:03travel time.
01:04And John, I know you were part of our forecast discussion as you lead the team.
01:09We do have a snow map coming within the hour and it's going to be on AccuWeather.com and
01:12the AccuWeather app very shortly as well for this particular storm.
01:15Yeah, that's right.
01:16Our team is activating that right now so you'll be able to see those maps and use that to
01:20make the best plans, especially on a week like this.
01:23That's exactly why we're providing that information earlier than any other source so you have
01:28that to make the best plans and stay safer.
01:30And behind that, we have very, very high confidence in a widespread high impact weather pattern
01:36here, John, that involves a lot of cold that we haven't seen since last winter.
01:39A big shock to the system coming here across the central and eastern part of the United
01:43States.
01:44Temperatures are going to average some 5 to 20 degrees in some spots below normal after
01:51Thanksgiving time period through the first week of December.
01:54And watch on this animation as these pinks and white colors come back around again.
01:59We're going to be talking about round after round of reinforcing shots of cold air passing
02:05over the relatively mild, unfrozen Great Lakes.
02:09That's a recipe for a major lake effect snow event here.
02:13From Friday through the weekend into early next week, Jeff, in the typical favored lake
02:18effect areas, especially east of Cleveland, south of Buffalo, and along the Interstate
02:23181 corridor in the Tug Hill Plateau, for example, of western New York, look for feet
02:28of snow and road closures.
02:31I-90 likely closed as well in some spots here as we head into the late weekend, into the
02:37weekend.
02:38Also very problematic for holiday travel.
02:41And John, the lakes do respond a little more swiftly than ocean water temperatures to air
02:45mass changes.
02:46But with that said, we've had a warm November and the first two-thirds of the month have
02:50featured among the warmest water temps on record for the Great Lakes.
02:54So it's going to be higher octane fuel to drive the lake effect snow.
02:57That's going to keep that lake effect snow engine going, and as we get reinforcing shot
03:01after reinforcing shot of cold air into the weekend and into early next week, although
03:07the wind directions can vary a little bit, and that means that the snow bands will oscillate
03:12north or south from a particular location, that's when we could be talking about, and
03:17that's why we are talking about feet of snow in some places downwind of the lakes.
03:21And because, Jeff, we think that band can oscillate a bit, that may keep some of the
03:27very, very high-end numbers from being realized in any one spot, but a fairly widespread risk
03:33of multiple feet of snow downwind of the lakes.
03:36And John, just briefly, if we were to look at the context and maybe our confidence level
03:39in various aspects of this forecast, can you break down the cold, the lake effect snow,
03:44and then what might follow this current pattern?
03:47Well, that widespread taste of January here in the central and eastern United States,
03:51high confidence level on that, as well as the lake effect snow.
03:55The piece that we're going to have to continue to watch here is later next week, we talked
04:00with our long-range expert team led by Paul Pastelok, low confidence, but we're going
04:05to have to monitor.
04:06Some of the ingredients are there for a snow risk at the coast, even down to the, you know,
04:12all the way to the coast, there'll be plenty of cold air.
04:14The question is, will there be a storm?
04:16And a lot of times when you have quite a distance difference in those air masses between that
04:21cold air surging southeastward and relatively mild air off the eastern seaboard, that's
04:26a storm highway.
04:28The question is, are we going to have a storm there or would it be offshore?
04:31All right.
04:32AcuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter.
04:34John, thanks again for your insight.
04:35Good to be with you.
04:37Likewise.