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00:00Good morning.
00:13This is Nikkei Sato for News on November 30.
00:16Let me introduce today's guest.
00:19This is Kazuhiro Maeshima, a professor at the University of Tokyo, specializing in American politics.
00:24Good morning.
00:27This is Takashi Imamura, a researcher at the Marveni Institute of Economics, specializing in American politics.
00:36And this is Shunsuke Kobayashi, a chief economist at Mizuho Insurance Co., Ltd., specializing in domestic and international markets.
00:45Today, we will be thinking with these three guests.
00:49Let's take a look at the program.
00:55Mr. Yamakawa, let's talk about Trump's return to the theater.
01:01This week, the topic of tariffs has come up again.
01:05I feel that the days of Trump's SNS mumbling have begun again.
01:16In particular, there are various rumors that this tariff will lead to inflation.
01:22What will happen to the economy and the market?
01:26What kind of impact will it have on Japanese companies?
01:29What kind of preparation is necessary?
01:31I would like to focus on this topic.
01:34Mr. Yamakawa also said,
01:37It's the keyword, as expected.
01:41It says, up to Canada.
01:45I still understand Mexico, but up to Canada, the tariff was 25%.
01:53If this kind of story comes out in Canada, I feel that there will be additional tariffs all over the world, including Japan.
02:02I would like to read this today.
02:05After the commercial, let's talk about the impact of Trump's return to the theater on the economy.
02:22This is what President Trump was talking about during the presidential election.
02:31On the 25th, despite the president's inauguration,
02:35He said he would impose an additional 10% tariff on almost all imports from China via SNS.
02:45As a countermeasure against the importation of synthetic drugs, fentanyl, which is a social problem in the United States,
02:54He declared that he would impose tariffs until the import of drugs stops.
03:01In addition, he said that Mexico and Canada would also sign the presidential order to impose a 25% tariff on the first day of their inauguration.
03:13Fentanyl is mainly imported through Mexico.
03:18As long as there is no countermeasure against illegal immigration or drugs, both countries will pay a heavy price.
03:28Canada's Prime Minister Trudeau called Mr. Trump on the 25th.
03:33They talked about several issues, including border issues, that can be dealt with together over two hours.
03:43According to the American media, the Canadian government is already in the process of selecting the target item, including the consideration of imposing a return tariff.
03:56Also, on the 26th, President Shane Baum of Mexico made it clear that he would send a letter to Mr. Trump to encourage dialogue and cooperation.
04:06He warned that he would expose the business of both countries to risks.
04:10As a countermeasure, he suggested imposing a return tariff.
04:18In addition, the Chinese Embassy in the U.S.A. made it clear that there is no basis for the import of fentanyl, and that it is contrary to facts and reality.
04:30He emphasized that there is no winner in the trade war and the tariffs war.
04:36Of course, the impact of tariffs is not unavoidable for Japanese companies.
04:42In particular, in Mexico, there are many manufacturers of Japanese cars and automobiles, and it is seen that the impact cannot be avoided.
04:55President Tokura of the Federation of States
04:58Mr. Tokura of the Federation of States
05:00Mr. Tokura of the Federation of States
05:24What is Mr. Trump's aim?
05:28Also, how will the market react?
05:34Looking at Mr. Trump's policy, positive aspects such as regulations and tariffs are being exchanged.
05:43Negative aspects such as the concern about inflation and inflation are also being pointed out.
05:50In the first Trump administration, New York Dow Jones rose by more than 50%, but this time?
06:01The speech has been taken up before the inauguration.
06:04We can see the movement of the Trump administration.
06:07Today, we will talk about these three themes.
06:10The first is the impact of Trump's tariffs on the economy.
06:16Let's take a look at the economic situation of the Trump administration.
06:21The Secretary of the Treasury, Mr. Besson, was appointed.
06:24He was the founder of the hedge fund, and he was also a major investor in the Trump administration in the presidential election.
06:31He is in favor of tariffs and cryptocurrency.
06:34The Secretary of the Treasury, Mr. Ratnik, is also a major investor and CEO of a securities company.
06:41He is the co-chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, and he is in favor of tariffs and cryptocurrency.
06:47Mr. Greer is the representative of the U.S. Trade and Investment Regulatory Commission.
06:52He is a lawyer specializing in international trade law.
06:55He was the chief secretary of the U.S. Trade and Investment Regulatory Commission during the first Trump administration.
06:59He is said to be deeply involved in medium-term tariffs and USMCA negotiations.
07:05Mr. Hassett is the chairman of the National Economic Council of the NEC.
07:10He is in favor of tariffs and cryptocurrency.
07:15The Secretary of the Treasury, Mr. Naim, is in favor of the use of land owned by the federal government.
07:22He is in favor of the use of land owned by the federal government.
07:30He is also the chairman of the National Energy Conference.
07:34And Elon Musk is in favor of the replacement of the government-funded company.
07:39He is said to be in favor of the replacement of the government-funded company.
07:42His assets are said to exceed $3 trillion, including Tesla and SpaceX.
07:46He acquired Twitter in 2022 and greatly reduced his office.
07:51Mr. Yamakawa?
07:53Yes, I just told you about the tariffs, which are mainly related to the economy.
07:58Mr. Maeshima, how do you feel?
08:01This is the dream team that Trump thinks of.
08:05In the economy, all of them are like their own clones.
08:13I think Trump clones will do their best.
08:17One more thing I would like to say is that,
08:19somehow, as a result of the election,
08:21there is something like a Trump victory,
08:23but if you think about it and look at the data,
08:25there is a 1.6% difference.
08:27In addition, in the next election,
08:29the number of votes is increasing.
08:31The majority is the Republican Party.
08:33In other words, the public opinion of the Republican Party
08:35is now a Trump victory,
08:37but this is a very thin victory,
08:41so before that part is divided,
08:43I want to show that I am doing my best
08:45and that I am doing my best
08:47at the moment.
08:49How about Mr. Imamura?
08:51Yes, this time,
08:53you can see that
08:55you are serious about the exchange tax.
08:57You are trying to do it firmly
08:59on behalf of the USTR,
09:01and in the first place,
09:03the winners of this election
09:05have gathered the support of the working class
09:07across the generations.
09:09Trump is very faithful to his promise,
09:11and he is said to be a very strong person
09:13who is more willing to pay back
09:15to the people who helped him.
09:17In response to this,
09:19not only the exchange tax,
09:21but also the trade deficit,
09:23but also the effort to regain
09:25the love of the people
09:27in the United States.
09:29I think the realization is quite difficult,
09:31but on the other hand,
09:33the Secretary of the Treasury
09:35has shown that
09:37the stock market is also important.
09:39Mr. Kobayashi.
09:41Yes.
09:43I feel that the contrast
09:45between attack and defense
09:47is quite outstanding.
09:49As Mr. Imamura said earlier,
09:51the seriousness of the exchange tax
09:53seems to be quite strong.
09:55Mr. Ratonic is quite principled,
09:57and Mr. Greer
09:59is also well aware of
10:01the trade deficit and the law,
10:03so how can he
10:05impose tariffs?
10:07How does it work?
10:09It is expected that
10:11he will attack China
10:13to a considerable extent.
10:15On the other hand,
10:17Mr. Bessent
10:19is symbolic,
10:21but there is a risk
10:23that the exchange tax
10:25will be inflated
10:27or the interest rate will jump
10:29if he does too much,
10:31so he is also well aware
10:33of the defense management
10:35around it.
10:37Mr. Maeshima,
10:39you used to be
10:41familiar with
10:43Lighthizer,
10:45but I was told that
10:47it might be included somewhere,
10:49but I don't think so.
10:51How should we look at it?
10:53Mr. Lighthizer,
10:55if Mr. Trump
10:57was the closest person
10:59to the People's Party
11:01on January 6th, 2021
11:03during the U.S.-China summit,
11:05he would have been
11:07like Mr. Lighthizer
11:09every week.
11:11These two people
11:13know each other,
11:15so it would be surprising
11:17if Mr. Lighthizer
11:19was the closest person
11:21to Mr. Trump.
11:23Maybe there is
11:25a sense of protection?
11:27I don't know
11:29if it's a sense of protection
11:31as a name,
11:33but it's like a sense of protection.
11:35He is a key person
11:37who manages
11:39various things
11:41around the White House
11:43in conjunction with Mr. Trump
11:45What kind of influence
11:47does he have?
11:49Originally,
11:51under the Biden administration
11:53and the Democratic administration,
11:55there were more and more
11:57restrictions on his business,
11:59and he couldn't do it.
12:01In fact, he was doing
12:03a lot of things
12:05in conjunction
12:07with NASA.
12:09Thanks to that,
12:11he was able to develop
12:13a relationship with Mr. Trump.
12:15In a sense,
12:17these two people
12:19are lonely.
12:21I think that's
12:23the current position.
12:25Mr. Kobayashi,
12:27in terms of the market,
12:29do you think
12:31she is a woman
12:33with a sense of stability?
12:35Or do you think
12:37she has a lot of
12:39destructive factors?
12:41There are quite a few people
12:43who disappear
12:45as soon as they get out of office.
12:47It's a new place in my memory
12:49that the turn of events
12:51was relatively early.
12:53As I said earlier,
12:55there is a contrast
12:57between attack and defense,
12:59but if different people
13:01come in at the same time,
13:03there is a high possibility
13:05that human relations will be disturbed.
13:07In that case,
13:09it will be safer
13:11to move forward.
13:13However,
13:15if there are people
13:17who have a sense of balance
13:19and are able to manage
13:21their defense well,
13:23it will be difficult.
13:25At this point,
13:27we can do both
13:29attack and defense.
13:31We can do a little bit of
13:33cash, but it will be
13:35a plus for the American economy.
13:37Now, let's talk about
13:39tariffs on goods.
13:41During the Trump administration,
13:43the President said that
13:45tariffs will be imposed
13:47on all countries,
13:49including China.
13:51For example,
13:53tariffs will be imposed
13:55on 60% of goods in China,
13:5725% on goods in Mexico,
13:59and 100% on automobiles.
14:01He also said that
14:03tariffs will be imposed
14:05on China.
14:07On the 25th,
14:09Trump himself
14:11declared that
14:13tariffs will be imposed
14:15on almost all imports
14:17in China.
14:19This is a countermeasure
14:21to stop the flow of fentanyl,
14:23a synthetic drug.
14:25He also said that
14:27tariffs will be imposed
14:29on Canada and Mexico,
14:31which are bordering
14:33the United States.
14:35This is a countermeasure
14:37to stop the flow of
14:39fentanyl, a synthetic drug.
14:41Mr. Imamura,
14:43what do you think
14:45about the tariffs?
14:47Tariffs are used
14:49as a weapon
14:51to bring America
14:53and its negotiating partners
14:55to a deal
14:57that benefits them.
14:59Tariffs are used
15:01as a weapon
15:03to bring America
15:05and its negotiating partners
15:07to a deal
15:09that benefits them.
15:11In the U.S.,
15:13tariffs are used
15:15as a weapon
15:17to bring America
15:19and its negotiating partners
15:21to a deal
15:23that benefits them.
15:25In the U.S.,
15:27tariffs are used
15:29as a weapon
15:31to bring America
15:33and its negotiating partners
15:35to a deal
15:37that benefits them.
15:39In the U.S.,
15:41tariffs are used
15:43as a weapon
15:45to bring America
15:47and its negotiating partners
15:49to a deal
15:51that benefits them.
15:53In the U.S.,
15:55tariffs are used
15:57as a weapon
15:59to bring America
16:01and its negotiating partners
16:03to a deal
16:05that benefits them.
16:07Mr. Maeshima.
16:09Mr. Maeshima.
16:11Mr. Maeshima.
16:13Mr. Maeshima.
16:15Mr. Maeshima.
16:17Mr. Maeshima.
16:19Mr. Maeshima.
16:21Mr. Maeshima.
16:23Mr. Maeshima.
16:25Mr. Maeshima.
16:43Hmm.
16:55I think it was a big surprise.
16:58It was very easy to understand that China, which was originally a security-guaranteed rival, would attack here.
17:08However, I have the impression that the level in the Allied States has escalated a little.
17:13If you look back, you can see that 25% of the tariffs were imposed on China in the first phase.
17:22As a result, exports from China to the United States have certainly decreased.
17:26However, there is a case where exports through Mexico and Vietnam have increased dramatically.
17:33The second challenge was how to prevent this.
17:37I think it was done in a diagonal way.
17:43In particular, Mexico seems to be aware that China is using it for extortion.
17:50Let's take a look at the shares.
17:53In 2018, Trump issued an additional tariff on China.
17:58The target item is more than 10,000 items.
18:01In addition, China also took countermeasures and the US-China trade war broke out.
18:06The tariff policy on China was also pulled by the Biden administration.
18:11In September of this year, the tariff on EVs, electric cars, and batteries was raised.
18:16In addition, China was at the top of the share of US imports.
18:21However, after the tariff was lifted, the share dropped rapidly.
18:24What has changed is Mexico and Canada.
18:28With these three countries alone, it will rise to 40% of US imports.
18:32Looking at this graph, China has dropped its share.
18:36But I think they're using Mexico for extortion.
18:40Or ASEAN is said to be like that.
18:43Japan has also dropped its share.
18:46However, some EV manufacturers are based in Mexico.
18:51That's one point.
18:53Mr. Imamura, the tariff on China was raised by the Trump administration.
19:00It's a ridiculous thing.
19:03But the Biden administration is pulling it.
19:06And they're adding more tariffs on economic security.
19:10It's not a story that only the Republican Party is doing.
19:14There's a continuity to it.
19:17How should we read this?
19:19What's more extreme than the Trump administration and the Biden administration is the current U.S. Congress.
19:24When I talk to the members of the U.S. Congress,
19:26they say we need to get rid of China, which is so intense that it looks like Trump.
19:31They've come up with a lot of policies and laws.
19:34I don't think it's possible to get rid of the Biden administration.
19:38The Biden administration is building a more precise mechanism from the bottom up.
19:44On the other hand, in the case of the Trump administration,
19:46various mechanisms follow after the Trump administration.
19:49There's a difference in the method.
19:51I think it's going to be decoupled from China.
19:56It's going to continue for more than 10 years.
20:00Mr. Maeshima, if you keep doing this,
20:03I'm not saying it's all of it, but it's going to be added to the product price and it's going to be inflated.
20:09There's a lot of talk that we're going to have to stop somewhere.
20:16Even if Trump becomes inflated to some extent,
20:20Do you have the will to keep doing this?
20:24What do you think about that?
20:25It's subtle.
20:27Basically, it's going to be inflated.
20:30But inflation is bad.
20:33In Trump's behavior, he's basically looking at his supporters' opinions.
20:39I don't like inflation.
20:41But in order not to inflate it to that extent,
20:44I don't know much about it, but I don't know much about it, but I don't know much about it, but I don't know much about it, but I don't know much about it, but I don't know much about it, but I don't know much about it, but I don't know much about it, but I don't know much about it, but I don't know much about it, but I don't know much about it, but I don't know much about it, but I don't know much about it, but I don't know much about it, but I don't know much about it, but I don't know much about it, but I don't know much about it, but I don't know much about it, but I don't know much about it, but I don't know much about it, but I don't know much about it, but I don't know much about it, but I don't know much about it, but I don't know much about it, but I don't know much
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21:44don't know much about it.
22:14I would like to explain further.
22:34Thank you very much.
22:35I would like to start with the graph on the right.
22:39In terms of inflation, I think the impression is strong that it is a problem because the other party cannot export it.
22:45There is certainly such an effect, but if you look at it from the perspective of inflation,
22:51in the end, if it changes in price, it will have the same effect as consumption tax,
22:57so it will be a policy that the blow to the country itself is greater than the sword of Moroha.
23:04That's why Trump can't use this kind of thing when the situation is bad.
23:08When he was in his first term, he started paying taxes, and when the situation was good, he started paying taxes.
23:16However, this time, the situation is good at his feet, and he can pay taxes on top of that,
23:21so he can play with fire because he is quite confident.
23:24I think there is such a fear.
23:27If that happens, Japan will have to take serious risks.
23:34Of course, where Mexico and Canada or the U.S. economy is slightly damaged,
23:39the Japanese companies' earnings will not be so bad,
23:43but the most important thing is on the left side.
23:47It is the inflation that takes place when the factory in Mexico and Canada exports to the U.S.
23:53If this inflation really occurs, it will cost about 1.5 trillion yen.
23:58So how to avoid this is what is required.
24:03As far as I can see, this blue transportation machine is almost a car.
24:08I think it's about what will happen when the car is really 25% in Mexico.
24:13Let's take a look at the current situation of the car manufacturer.
24:17In this way, there are Nissan, Toyota, Mazda, and Honda in Mexico.
24:24So how much of the output to the U.S. is exported to the U.S.
24:32Toyota and Honda are almost the same.
24:36However, Nissan and Mazda have a very big impact in Mexico.
24:42Mr. Imamura, what are you really going to do here?
24:46This is ironic.
24:47The USMCA was created when Trump was in power.
24:51Did Trump himself create the USMCA?
24:53Yes.
24:54With that, everyone became aware that cars were made in North America.
25:00This is not only the case with Japanese manufacturers, but also with Ford and GM.
25:05In fact, because they don't use low-priced cars in Mexico,
25:10they can't sell cars at reasonable prices in the U.S.
25:15This has an impact, but it's also about what will happen to the price of cars in the future.
25:22I'm a little skeptical about how much it will actually affect.
25:27In the same way, the Big Three is also based in this way.
25:30Will the Big Three be able to subdue Trump?
25:37That's the question.
25:39After that, I think there is an awareness that they want to restore the factory of automakers in the United States,
25:46but no matter how you think about it, it's impossible.
25:50After the commercial, I think about the impact that President Trump's policies will have on the market.
26:03We've heard a lot about the perfect speech from the administration.
26:07Now, let's talk about the Trump administration's economic policy, the Trump rally.
26:14First, let's look at how the stock market in the first Trump administration was doing.
26:20From January 2017, when Trump took office, the stock market rose by about 56% in the four years from January 2021.
26:29Now, as usual, the stock price is rising and the U.S. economy is thriving.
26:35And the exchange rate.
26:37The fluctuation in the dollar-yen market is not very large, and the level is higher than it is now.
26:43At the end of June this year, when the Biden administration entered the yen-less direction,
26:47yen-less went up to 160 yen, which was the level for the first time in about 38 years.
26:53Recently, it broke into the 150-yen range and reached the 149-yen range.
27:00In the first term, the stock price was high and the dollar-yen price was low.
27:08Mr. Kobayashi, how do you see the second term, including whether the previous one will be helpful?
27:16First of all, Mr. Trump's policy has the effect of raising the stock price temporarily,
27:24but I don't think it's sustainable.
27:29Temporarily effective means, of course, that corporate profits can be boosted by the imposed taxes.
27:37Also, looking at the scale of the tax on assets, the tax on assets is more than the tax on taxes.
27:44It's very stimulating, isn't it?
27:46So, first of all, it's easy to connect to the stock price as a first impact,
27:52and I think it's also easy to raise the interest rate and become the dollar-yen price.
27:57However, it doesn't last long.
27:59This is the same with the Trump administration in the first term,
28:02but there has never been a Republican administration that has been drawn by the dollar-yen price.
28:08Why is that?
28:10First of all, I think it's because it benefits the rich.
28:13Conversely, I think it's because it doesn't give much money to the poor.
28:18Looking at the current tax system, the tax on legal entities and high-income people is very heavy.
28:26Even if you impose a tax on these people, they don't spend much money.
28:31But on the other hand, if you impose a lot of taxes,
28:34the cost of living will increase, so the poor will be in trouble.
28:39Then, the average income of people who spend more money will be higher,
28:44so they won't have much GDP.
28:47Then, in the second half, the stock price and the dollar-yen price will fall.
28:51I think this has happened a lot in the past.
28:54As a result of this election, the most surprising thing for politicians is
28:58that quite a few poor people are in Trump, and rich people are in ICE.
29:03From Mr. Kobayashi's point of view,
29:06how do the poor people who are in Trump get confused?
29:13I've been watching the midterm elections for 26 years,
29:18and when I think about it, there are a lot of members who will be re-elected,
29:21and there are a lot of members who will be re-elected,
29:24so I wonder what will happen.
29:26That's what politicians think.
29:29If you look at it like that, I wonder how this policy will work,
29:32and how Trump will promote it.
29:35I wonder if he's going to do it like this.
29:38What about you, Mr. Imamura?
29:40Looking at the menu for the upcoming election,
29:44in the end, there is only a policy to expand this gap.
29:49On the other hand, the labor class won this time,
29:52so if you try to respond to this,
29:55you have no choice but to rely on the high-performance and manufacturing industry
30:00that can't see the way to success.
30:03Or you have to force the illegal immigrants,
30:06who don't know the direct causal relationship.
30:09By doing this, you're going to launch a policy,
30:12but you don't care much about the results.
30:15You may be aware that it's probably over in four years.
30:18If you think about it for eight years,
30:21it may be a more careful policy.
30:24However, I think there is an awareness in this that
30:27it doesn't matter if the United States is imagined to be destroyed.
30:30Again, Mr. Kobayashi,
30:33are you looking at it as a stock price or a dollar price this time as well?
30:38In the sense of being in the middle of a four-year popular period,
30:41I think the possibility is high enough.
30:44However, as I said earlier,
30:46there is a possibility that the stock price will fall in the middle.
30:49That's right.
30:50It's like that.
30:51I'm trying to make it more expensive
30:54because if we leave it alone,
30:57it will expire in 2026.
31:00That means that the stock price will probably pass next year.
31:03I think that's the peak of the stock price going up.
31:06I think it's going to be like that.
31:09I think it's going to be like that.
31:12I think it's going to be like that.
31:15And what I'm curious about is the stock price.
31:19During the Trump administration,
31:21due to the influence of the novel coronavirus,
31:23inflation did not progress much.
31:25Since the Biden administration,
31:27the stock price has continued to rise
31:29as the time of recovery from the coronavirus.
31:32In June 2022, it rose by 9.1%.
31:35Inflation prevention laws and the increase in FRBs
31:38reduced the number of consumer stocks by 2.4% in September.
31:43In October, it rose by 2.6% again.
31:47There is a theory that inflation will accelerate
31:50and there is another theory that it will not.
31:55As you can see,
31:57it is a policy that Trump will implement.
32:00In any case, it is said that it will accelerate inflation.
32:03The rise in inflation will lead to an increase in imported goods.
32:06The decline in immigration will lead to a shortage of people
32:09and lead to a stagnant inflation.
32:11The rise in inflation will also lead to a decline in the price of Trump's currency.
32:14This is the general idea.
32:16However, Chief Analyst of the Sony Financial Group,
32:19Mr. Maki Ogawa,
32:20when he was asked about the market relations in Washington,
32:23he also said that inflation will not accelerate.
32:27As for the rise in inflation,
32:29it is not that inflation will continue to rise every year,
32:32so the impact is temporary.
32:34As for the decline in immigration,
32:36there is also a view that it is rather a deflationary pressure
32:39because the number of immigrants will decrease and the demand will decrease.
32:41In addition, the new Trump currency will be introduced in stages
32:45so there is also a view that it will not have much effect on the economy.
32:49In addition, if fossil fuels are promoted,
32:52the price of goods and gasoline will go down,
32:54so the price of goods will go down.
32:57Mr. Imamura, there seems to be a theory for both.
33:00However, looking back eight years ago,
33:02America was whispered that it was a long-term downturn.
33:05It was thought that the economy would sink like Japan
33:08so that the price of goods would not go up.
33:11However, even if the price of goods went down,
33:14there was still a little bit of heat left.
33:17If you start from there and try to do something like the first wave,
33:20I feel that the price of goods will go up
33:23and inflation will not accelerate as you said.
33:26It's really like that.
33:28It's different from the first wave.
33:30Mr. Kobayashi.
33:31I completely agree.
33:33The economic environment is completely different from the first wave,
33:36so I think it's a situation that is easy to bounce back on the price of goods.
33:39Also, in the case of the last time,
33:41there was an outflow of goods,
33:43so the impact of inflation was small,
33:46but if you block it, the impact will be greater.
33:49If you dare to raise the deflation,
33:51the supply of energy written at the very end will increase and the price will go down.
33:55I think it's about how to connect with this.
33:59And I have to think about what the Secretary of the Treasury is thinking,
34:04but this Besentoshi is a 3-3-3 policy.
34:10This is actually a three-arrow arrow,
34:13which is also a little familiar to Prime Minister Abe's Abenomics.
34:16It means that I learned and said something like this.
34:19Reduce GDP growth by 3% by the end of 2028.
34:24Reduce GDP growth by 3% by the end of 2028.
34:29And reduce oil production by 3 million barrels per day.
34:33Basically, I think it's called a high-pressure economy.
34:36By increasing growth by 3% more and more,
34:40it will bring in more taxes and make the economy healthier.
34:45That's one of the reasons I'm talking about.
34:49Mr. Maeshima, how should we look at this?
34:53What will happen to this call?
34:563-3-3, it's easy to understand.
34:59It's easy to understand even if it doesn't actually happen.
35:02This is a big point, and I love Mr. Trump.
35:05In the past, in the presidential election,
35:08I don't remember what was not there,
35:11but everyone only remembers 3-3-3.
35:14Then I feel like something is getting better by 3-3-3.
35:17I think this is a big point.
35:20But what I haven't put in here is the previous inflation.
35:23What will happen to inflation?
35:26Mr. Besentoshi was initially negative about inflation,
35:29but if you look at what was written in the White House and the media,
35:32you can see that there is a high degree of inflation.
35:35I wonder what will actually happen.
35:38But we will never forget 3-3-3.
35:42Mr. Imamura, what do you think?
35:45This third 300-yen barrel is almost impossible.
35:48Individual oil producers think about the cost and do it for their own profit.
35:56If this is the case, I think it will be about $65 per barrel.
36:00They may be aiming for that, but it's a red-leaf industry.
36:03If that's the case, there's no reason to dig.
36:06Or even Mr. Besentoshi,
36:08I think it's a really difficult job to put in the exchange tax,
36:11while stabilizing the economy and the stock price,
36:14and raising the stock price.
36:17But to convey the ease of understanding of 3-3-3 is
36:20what Mr. Abe did during the Trump administration.
36:23I think it's important to copy what Mr. Besentoshi did.
36:28Mr. Besentoshi has a long-term vision.
36:31He wants to revive the world's economy.
36:34That's why he's doing this.
36:37The idea behind it is really convincing.
36:42Mr. Besentoshi has a vision of what he wants to achieve,
36:45and that's why he's in the Trump administration.
36:48That's one aspect.
36:50There is no longer a structure that relies on
36:53the excessive consumption and sales power of the U.S.
36:56There are a lot of things that can be done to change that.
36:59In particular, there are a lot of things that can be done
37:02to make the economy more stable.
37:04But whether it's possible or not is another story.
37:07After the announcement,
37:09let's think about the impact on Japanese companies.
37:15We've looked at the impact of the Trump administration
37:17on the economy and the market.
37:19Now, let's look at the third question.
37:21How should Japanese companies prepare for this?
37:24We looked at what kind of demands
37:27President Trump will make on Japan.
37:30This is a typical example.
37:32Increased trade costs,
37:34further direct investment from Japan,
37:36import of agricultural products,
37:38improvement of trade revenue,
37:40import of energy,
37:42and contribution to the semiconductor industry, etc.
37:45Mr. Mayoshima, what kind of approach will the Trump administration
37:48take to Japan?
37:50That's what I'm most interested in.
37:52Basically, Japan is making a lot of money
37:55by exporting to the U.S.
37:58So Japan should buy more U.S. products
38:01and contribute to the U.S.
38:04That's a strong message.
38:06But if you think about it seriously,
38:08each one is different.
38:10Japan has already invested in the U.S.
38:12and supported the employment of the U.S.
38:14The U.S. has already invested in the U.S.
38:16and the U.S. has already invested in the U.S.
38:18What more can Japan do?
38:20I think we should say that Japan will
38:22continue to work with the U.S.
38:24while keeping up with President Trump's selfishness.
38:27A lot of things will come out.
38:29I think more will come out.
38:31Mr. Imamura.
38:33I would like to add one more thing.
38:35It's a digital red flag.
38:37The cloud and the various services we use
38:40are almost paid by the U.S.
38:43Japan is paying for them.
38:45And as the U.S. expands,
38:47the Japanese economy will be affected
38:49by the economic situation
38:51and the foreign exchange will become worse.
38:53Japan is worried about this.
38:55So I think we should appeal to the U.S.
38:57that we will pay for them.
38:59But Mr. Trump,
39:01it's easy to understand
39:03that it's a digital red flag.
39:05But it's hard to understand
39:07that the U.S. is paying for them
39:09with a digital red flag.
39:11They don't seem to understand.
39:13And they're not our supporters.
39:15So it's hard to understand.
39:17But I think we should say that
39:19Japan is paying for them.
39:21Mr. Kobayashi, what do you think?
39:23I think we need to explain this
39:25in a proper way.
39:27The issue of the trade service
39:29is also an issue.
39:31Japan is investing directly
39:33from Japan.
39:35We want energy.
39:37So I think we need to explain
39:39that Japan is paying for them.
39:41If we have a chance,
39:43we can contribute
39:45to the semiconductor industry
39:47in the lower right.
39:49Certainly, the U.S.
39:51has not yet succeeded
39:53in the domesticization
39:55of high-end semiconductors.
39:57It depends on Taiwan.
39:59There is a psychological risk
40:01for that.
40:03So we need to make sure
40:05that Japan can also
40:07contribute to the U.S.
40:09I think Japan is already
40:11contributing a lot
40:13to the U.S.
40:15This is a reference
40:17from Mr. Hosoka
40:19who came to this program
40:21the other day.
40:23This is a reference
40:25from Mr. Hosoka
40:27who came to this program
40:29the other day.
40:31This is a reference
40:33from Mr. Hosoka
40:35who came to this program
40:37the other day.
40:39This is a reference
40:41from Mr. Hosoka
40:43who came to this program
40:45the other day.
40:47This is a reference
40:49from Mr. Hosoka
40:51who came to this program
40:53the other day.
40:55This is a reference
40:57from Mr. Hosoka
40:59who came to this program
41:01the other day.
41:03This is a reference
41:05from Mr. Hosoka
41:07who came to this program
41:09the other day.
41:11This is a reference
41:13from Mr. Hosoka
41:15who came to this program
41:17the other day.
41:19This is a reference
41:21from Mr. Hosoka
41:23who came to this program
41:25the other day.
41:27This is a reference
41:29from Mr. Hosoka
41:31who came to this program
41:33the other day.
41:35This is a reference
41:37from Mr. Hosoka
41:39who came to this program
41:41the other day.
41:43This is a reference
41:45from Mr. Hosoka
41:47who came to this program
41:49the other day.
41:51This is a reference
41:53from Mr. Hosoka
41:55who came to this program
41:57the other day.
41:59This is a reference
42:01from Mr. Hosoka
42:03who came to this program
42:05the other day.
42:07This is a reference
42:09from Mr. Hosoka
42:11who came to this program
42:13the other day.
42:15This is a reference
42:17from Mr. Hosoka
42:19who came to this program
42:21the other day.
42:23This is a reference
42:25from Mr. Hosoka
42:27who came to this program
42:29the other day.
42:31This is a reference
42:33from Mr. Hosoka
42:35who came to this program
42:37the other day.
42:39This is a reference
42:41from Mr. Hosoka
42:43who came to this program
42:45the other day.
42:47This is a reference
42:49from Mr. Hosoka
42:51who came to this program
42:53the other day.
42:55This is a reference
42:57from Mr. Hosoka
42:59who came to this program
43:01the other day.
43:03This is a reference
43:05from Mr. Hosoka
43:07who came to this program
43:09the other day.
43:11This is a reference
43:13from Mr. Hosoka
43:15who came to this program
43:17the other day.
43:19This is a reference
43:21from Mr. Hosoka
43:23who came to this program
43:25the other day.
43:27This is a reference
43:29from Mr. Hosoka
43:31who came to this program
43:33the other day.
43:35This is a reference
43:37from Mr. Hosoka
43:39who came to this program
43:41the other day.
43:43This is a reference
43:45from Mr. Hosoka
43:47who came to this program
43:49the other day.
43:51There is a story about LNG
43:53rather than coal,
43:55and there is a competition
43:57for LNG.
43:59If you dig more and more
44:01gas,
44:03you can buy it.
44:05You can buy it.
44:07You can buy it.
44:09You can buy it.
44:11You can buy it.
44:13You can buy it.
44:15You can buy it.
44:17You can buy it.
44:19He really likes those things
44:21and that's why
44:23people are approaching Japan
44:25in this way.
44:27He is the person
44:29in the middle.
44:31Let us hear
44:33the voice of Japanese companies.
44:35This is a reaction
44:37to the Japan Industry Association
44:39during the Trump election.
44:41This is about the perfect raise.
44:43Vice Chairman Aoyama of Honda
44:45has considered the production
44:47and production.
44:49Nissan's President Uchida
44:51wants to look at the direction of business
44:53with a good focus.
44:55President Fuku Hagiwara
44:57says it's hard to believe that
44:59manufacturing supply chains
45:01will be established only in the U.S.
45:03As for energy,
45:05President Ishii of Ito Chushoji
45:07says there is a possibility
45:09that the direction of
45:11carbon emissions will change
45:13with Europe.
45:15We don't know if it will be
45:17cheap or expensive.
45:19President Yamamoto
45:21of Wow Wow
45:23says he is wary of
45:25rapid cheap production
45:27by importing movies
45:29and drama content.
45:31President Tokura
45:33of Keidanrei
45:35says there is a risk
45:37that the impact on Japanese companies
45:39will be huge,
45:41so he wants to look at it.
45:43What is important
45:45in preparing for Japanese companies?
45:47They are prepared
45:49in advance.
45:51Direct investment
45:53is also important.
45:55President Trump
45:57welcomes foreign companies
45:59coming to the U.S.
46:01and wants them to
46:03produce in the U.S.
46:05Of course, the impact
46:07will still be on trade
46:09and other countries
46:11but I don't think
46:13Japan is a country
46:15that has to be prepared
46:17for President Trump.
46:19What will happen
46:21after four years?
46:23The first two or four years
46:25of President Trump's presidency
46:27is a question
46:29of whether or not
46:31he can move
46:33the production base
46:35just for that.
46:37I don't think there is any
46:39company that can move
46:41the production base
46:43just for that.
46:45I don't think there are
46:47any companies that can
46:49move the production base
46:51just for that.
46:53That's all for today.
46:55Next week,
46:57we will talk about
46:59a topic that
47:01we couldn't cover
47:03in this program.
47:05Thank you for joining us.
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