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00:00Thank you for joining us again in the Market Buzz segment.
00:08In this segment, we will discuss a number of information about the capital market.
00:12The recommendation is also for you to join us as an analyst.
00:14But before that, we invite you to see some global economic agendas.
00:18Among them, there is PMI Manufacture from the United States,
00:22then also from the UK and some information on the global economic agenda.
00:28In Indonesia, there is the Consumer Price Index.
00:30Then, let's move on to the Agenda from MITEN.
00:35On Monday, December 2, 2024, there is an agenda from IPO, RUPS, PTSN, RUPS,
00:42FILEM, RUPS, PORT, the Saham Holders Association or RUPS as well,
00:47and some agendas in the PS Dividend Tunai.
00:51Next, let's see an update from the Asian exchange in the middle of the strengthening of the European exchange
00:55and the US Stock Exchange.
00:59We see that Nikkei, The Times, Kospi, Hang Seng, all stocks are moving in the negative territory,
01:04led by Hang Seng, which is almost 1% weaker, followed by Nikkei, Japan.
01:15This morning, we have a video conference with Mr. Henra Wardana,
01:20the founder of Republic Investor.
01:22Good morning, Mr. Henra.
01:24Good morning, Mrs. Prisa. Good morning, all investors.
01:27Thank you for the discussion that we will have this morning, Mr. Henra,
01:32related to the Wall Street exchange and also Europe,
01:35which is expected to experience a strengthening at the end of last week.
01:40In the middle of Black Friday, where the Wall Street exchange is only short-lived,
01:45but the two main indexes are able to break the intraday record level.
01:50There are Dow Jones and S&P.
01:52But if we look at Asia, why is it weakening?
01:54Is there a chance that the IHSG will continue to weaken again in early December?
01:59Yes, Mrs. Prisa, if we look at it, it can be said that it is an anomaly
02:03when the US exchange is experiencing a strengthening,
02:07Europe is experiencing a strengthening,
02:08but the IHSG has experienced a correction of up to 6% in just one week,
02:14and it can be said that the net sales are also quite large.
02:17If we look at it for a week, it's more than 3 trillion,
02:22and on Friday alone, the net sales are as large as 1.6 trillion.
02:26And if we also look at the stocks,
02:28notably as a supporter of the IHSG,
02:32which has the largest market cap,
02:34one of which is BRI,
02:35it is actually foreigners who break the net sales and experience a weakening.
02:39BRI is experiencing a weakening,
02:42experiencing a net sales of 2.1 trillion,
02:44Adull 530 billion, and Bang Mandiri 277 billion.
02:48Is there a chance for the IHSG to experience a strengthening this week?
02:52Actually, if it is said, there is a possibility.
02:55But indeed, with the closing yesterday on Friday,
02:59the IHSG was unable to maintain its strongest support at level 7,118,
03:04because the closing was 7,114,
03:07which makes it very possible for the IHSG to test its support area again,
03:12even its psychological support at level 7,000.
03:14Because if we look at it, there is still very little positive sentiment,
03:18whether it's from domestic or from global itself.
03:22Because if we look at it, the cause of the decline of the IHSG,
03:25one of them is the choice of Donald Trump,
03:27who is considered a businessman who chose to be president,
03:32who is considered to be a politician who will fit the protectionist policy,
03:36which benefits the American economy,
03:38so that foreign funds in the United States and Indonesia
03:42are outflowed or returned to them.
03:44Maybe that's the difference.
03:46Okay, we will see again, Mr. Mirza, the update from the Asian Stock Exchange.
03:50We review the update from the Asian Stock Exchange,
03:52where this tendency is actually strengthening.
03:54Maybe it can be shown again on your television screen, Mr. Mirza.
03:57The Nikkei update is down 0.35%,
04:01but Street Times, Kospi and Hang Seng are actually strengthening.
04:06This is the latest data.
04:07Street Times is up 0.43%, Kospi is up 0.43%,
04:10Hang Seng Hong Kong is up 0.1%.
04:12This is the latest data this morning.
04:14The tendency is strengthening.
04:15Okay, let's continue the discussion with Mr. Henra.
04:20Mr. Henra, it means there is an opportunity for the IHSG
04:25to continue the next level of support.
04:27What was the target level, sir?
04:29Yes, that's right, Ms. Prisa.
04:30The next target is at level 7,000.
04:33With my hope, the IHSG will be able to rise again
04:37at least at the level of 7,118 or 7,120.
04:41But the strongest support for the IHSG is at the level of 7,000
04:45because we see that there is still no positive sentiment.
04:50Because we also see that our exchange rate is weakening
04:52and the market has more wait and see.
04:55Because if we look at it, it is related to the concern
04:58about the 12% increase in GDP.
05:00This is one of the sentiments of investors
05:03to be more careful in choosing stocks last week, Ms. Prisa.
05:08So, when the negative sentiment comes from the global election
05:13from Donald Trump and maybe his policies,
05:16what will be the driving force for the IHSG index
05:20to be able to reverse from the current 7,100
05:23or from a weak position?
05:27Yes, Ms. Prisa.
05:28If you ask, what sentiment can make the IHSG tend to rebound?
05:33With hope, we will see later.
05:38There is a chance that the Fed's consensus or prediction
05:41is more or less 60% predicting that the Fed in December
05:45will reduce its exchange rate.
05:46But we will see if the Fed can reduce its exchange rate
05:50considering the US inflation rate also experienced an increase last month.
05:55We will see that.
05:56So, when the Fed reduces its exchange rate,
05:59there is a positive sentiment for the emerging market,
06:01one of which is Indonesia.
06:03Then, what else is expected from Domestik itself?
06:06What is expected from Domestik itself
06:08is a reduction in the 12% increase in GDP
06:11which is planned to be done on January 1, 2025.
06:15Maybe this is one of the global and domestic sentiments
06:18that is expected from the investors
06:20so that our market can experience a mechanical rebound
06:25because the market players are starting to be optimistic
06:29when, for example, this PPN reduction happens
06:32because it will make Indonesia's economy considered stable, Ms. Prisa.
06:38Okay, so there is a continuation sentiment,
06:41a reduction in the Fed's consensus in December
06:43which is expected to continue
06:45as big as 25 basis points, right, Mr. Hendra?
06:48That's right, 25 basis points.
06:50And it is expected that when the Fed reduces its exchange rate,
06:52there is also room for Bank Indonesia to reduce its exchange rate
06:56so that when Bank Indonesia reduces its exchange rate,
06:59it is expected that many companies will borrow money from the bank for expansion
07:05so that the economy can rebound again, Ms. Prisa.
07:10A reduction in the Fed's consensus and a reduction in PPN
07:14to 12% at the beginning of next year.
07:18Okay, what's interesting in the last week,
07:21even though the price-to-jointy index is under pressure,
07:23the daily transaction value rose 35.5% to around 13.4 trillion rupiah.
07:29Is it because there are a lot of selling actions
07:33or how do you see the daily transaction value?
07:36That's right, Ms. Prisa.
07:37As we can see, the daily transaction value is around 10 trillion rupiah,
07:42but on Friday, it rose to almost 13.4 trillion rupiah.
07:48As we can see, what Ms. Prisa said is right,
07:51because there are a lot of selling actions or net sales.
07:55As I said, on Friday, the net sales amounted to 1.6 trillion rupiah
08:01and some stocks like Agro, the transaction is also quite good.
08:06For yesterday's Friday, the Agro transaction amounted to 2.2 trillion rupiah,
08:10so it's almost more than 15% of the ASD transaction in the Agro stock for yesterday's Friday.
08:17Then, the value of BBRI also experienced an increase of 1.7 trillion rupiah
08:21and Bandiri Bank 979 billion rupiah.
08:24Because if we look at these supporting stocks,
08:27there are a lot of transactions and a lot of transactions are actually foreign net sales,
08:33so the Agro stock on Friday experienced a weakness of 24%,
08:37BBRI 1.85% and Bandiri Bank experienced a weakness of 4.65%.
08:42That's Ms. Prisa.
08:43If we talk more about the best stock,
08:48let's talk about Adaro for example,
08:50because there will be an IPO from its subsidiary.
08:54What is the interest of Adaro for retail investors in the middle of the current price volatility?
09:03Okay, with the price of Adro, which in particular has experienced a 44.5% colorection
09:09from the announcement of the dividend when for example KUM and XDAT,
09:15because it can be said that the yield from Adro is also quite high, 38%,
09:20and Adaro will also be the IPO of its subsidiary ADI.
09:24Is the Adro stock interesting for this week in Cermati?
09:29We will still see whether today at the price of IDR 2,080 or at least IDR 2,000.
09:36For Adro, is it strong to be IDR 2,000?
09:40If it is strong, it can be for traders or speculators to make purchases for Adro stocks.
09:48But again, when it is considered IDR 2,000 and there is a strong demand for Adro stocks today.
09:55Because if we look at it, there are indeed some sentiments,
09:58such as the IPO subsidiary ADI can be a positive catalyst.
10:02But we have to look at it too, we have to be realistic too,
10:05when the selling pressure is still high, it is better not to be forced to buy at this time.
10:11We will see again when the momentum is considered right to make purchases with Adro.
10:17How about the opportunity after the pricing of the subsidiary?
10:23Yes, if for example from the subsidiary, the ADI itself is more or less at the price of IDR 5,000 for ADI.
10:31Because if we look at whether this ADI is interesting,
10:36if for example I look at it based on the PBV at the price of IDR 5,550,
10:41the PBV is actually 0.5 times compared to the average of the industry twice.
10:47So if it is said that the IPO ADI is taken or not, it is just taken.
10:52Because in fact, in terms of fundamental calculations, it is actually still good.
10:58But we have to look ahead, whether the prospect with the industry is still okay or not.
11:04But if for example, let's say swing up,
11:08if for example to buy after that is sold or fast trading,
11:13you can just buy ADI because fundamentally the IPO is still undervalued.
11:20Although in terms of value it is quite high or a little less friendly with retail,
11:25but actually it is still quite undervalued.
11:28So if you want to take it, you can try it.
11:32Okay, then we will continue to the analysis of the top stocks for a week.
11:38There are two stocks, namely INPC and Jihd.
11:42With very significant strength, INPC jumped 21% on Friday.
11:47Then also Jihd jumped about 14%.
11:51How is your analysis for the two emitters, Sugiyan Tokusuma or Aguan and also Tomi Winata?
11:58Yes, that's right, Mr. Prisha.
11:59If we look at Jihd, more or less for a week more than 50%,
12:04as well as INPC more than 50%.
12:06So the group of Aguan and Tomi Winata's family is very significant.
12:13If we look at INPC itself, from Bank Arta itself,
12:17the information of Bank Arta is a bridge between the consumer candidates and the households in the PIC.
12:23Maybe this is one of the catalysts that makes the INPC stock also very significant.
12:28Yes, when the market conditions are downtrend,
12:32in the sense of always breaking through the support,
12:35momentum stocks like what is happening right now,
12:39let's say the Aguan group or Tomi Winata,
12:42can be used by traders to do fast trade or die trade.
12:47By minimizing the risk with a stop loss limit
12:51according to the risk profile of each investor.
12:55If the risk profile that you offer, for example in INPC, how good is it?
13:00Yes, INPC and Jihd, the volatility is certainly very high.
13:06Of course, the risk profile that can be traded there
13:11is a typical risk profile where the investor is aggressive.
13:16So if it's not aggressive, it's better not to buy stocks like that.
13:21Unless if he is aggressive, please.
13:24But if he is a typical conservative or moderate,
13:28choose stocks that are fundamentally still undervalued.
13:32Later it can be seen in the support whether there is momentum for technical rebounds or not.
13:36So you can speculate stocks that are fundamentally still undervalued.
13:41For example, BBRI is still undervalued, BBCA is also undervalued.
13:44Just look for momentum when there is a technical rebound.
13:47Okay, Jihd also for now,
13:50if we talk about your risk profile personally,
13:53you also don't recommend it?
13:56I don't recommend it.
13:58Okay, in short, talk about Jihd and INPC.
14:02The strength of Jihd is almost 95% and INPC is 73%.
14:09Recommend the options we present,
14:11Mr. Hendra, after the break,
14:13stay with us in the marketplace.
14:16Thank you, Mr. Miyarsa, for being with us.
14:18And we will still discuss, of course, together with the analysts this morning,
14:22looking at some of the following options.
14:25You can watch Mr. Miyarsa on your TV screen.
14:29There are several options from Mr. Hendra,
14:31Wardana Founder, and Public Investor.
14:33Among them, there is MAPA,
14:34which is recommended with the support of Mr. Miyarsa.
14:40Our goal is level buy at Rp 1,100.
14:47With the target of Mr. Miyarsa,
14:51you can watch it on your TV screen at Rp 1,175.
14:55Then, L-SHIP is recommended with stop loss at Rp 1,025.
15:04With the farthest target at Rp 1,200 or the second target.
15:09Then, PNLF with a target of Rp 456,
15:12stop loss at Rp 414.
15:14And BRMS, the second target at Rp 458,
15:17with a stop loss at Rp 392.
15:20Okay, Mr. Hendra, earlier you mentioned
15:22that you are more interested in stocks that are volatile.
15:25When we talk about the best stock last week,
15:28you are more interested in stocks that are not too volatile.
15:32But looking at your recommendation,
15:34there are no volatile stocks or blue chips, right?
15:40Yes, that's right, Mrs. Prisa.
15:42Again, we have to look closely at the momentum.
15:46Because if we look at it,
15:48volatility is fundamentally undervalued.
15:51The momentum to make a purchase is not there yet.
15:56Because if we look at today,
15:58BBI experienced a weakness of 30 points or 0.71%,
16:03so the momentum is not there yet.
16:05But if there is momentum that is interesting
16:07for buying stocks or technical rebounds,
16:11it must be interesting to be appreciated.
16:14Okay, that means the stock is good or there is a chance there,
16:19but the momentum is not there yet, right?
16:21You can just take a look at it first,
16:23but wait for the right momentum.
16:25For example, BBI, the momentum is more when the price is in what position?
16:31Okay, if we look at BBI,
16:33with the current price at the level of Rp 4,230,
16:37there is actually the strongest classic support at the level of Rp 4,090.
16:44So it's still very far.
16:45So there is still no technical rebound at the current price of Rp 4,230.
16:53So just be patient, buy and witness at Rp 4,090.
16:58Unless at the time at the level of Rp 4,150,
17:01there is already a technical rebound,
17:02the candlestick is already powerful,
17:04there is already a reversal there,
17:06it can be speculated for BBI.
17:08But for now, it's better to buy and witness first for BBI stocks.
17:12Okay, that's it.
17:13Why are the current blue chip stocks, especially banking,
17:16not recommended because the momentum is not there yet?
17:23Okay, we will recommend your choice.
17:25You recommend MAPA buy with a stop loss at Rp 1,060.
17:28There is a second target at Rp 1,175.
17:30What is MAPA actually?
17:32Yes, actually MAPA, if we look at it yesterday,
17:35it can be said that the closing is very good.
17:39The candlestick is also rebounded from the dynamic support at Rp 50.
17:42And it can be said that the trend is also bullish
17:44and the stochastic can also be said to be interesting to witness.
17:50But if for example we look at today,
17:53this morning MAPA actually experienced a correction
17:55or really fit in the stop loss figure at Rp 1,060.
17:59So if for example it is typical,
18:02typical that is brave for aggressive,
18:06it can be speculated at the current price at Rp 1,060 or Rp 1,055.
18:11That's for MAPA, Mrs. Prisa.
18:12Rp 1,060 to Rp 1,055 with the first target in position?
18:17Yes, with the first target, it was at the level of Rp 1,140
18:22and the second take profit was at Rp 1,175.
18:25Okay, watch your head.
18:26Yes, because the current situation is still what I said earlier,
18:30sideways, the tendency is down,
18:32although this morning it has been opened,
18:35experiencing a strength of 0.17%.
18:38Okay, we go to the next slide.
18:40You also recommend L-SHIP.
18:45Yes, L-SHIP is one of the stocks
18:47which is located in the middle of a fairly large ISG pit,
18:53but L-SHIP is able to experience a technical reward.
18:56So with today's strength,
18:58there is still room for L-SHIP to the first take profit at Rp 1,145
19:03and the second take profit at Rp 1,200.
19:06Because if we look at the candlestick,
19:08the candlestick is also bullish above the moving average of Rp 100
19:11and during the first month of November,
19:15ASEAN made a net base of Rp 60 billion
19:18and related to the government,
19:20the government can also be said to have officially issued a policy
19:24on B30 and B40 fuel resources,
19:28which will increase the demand of Indonesian CPOs.
19:31So it's interesting for L-SHIP,
19:33for the swing trade, it's still interesting.
19:35Okay, watch out for Rp 1,025.
19:38Yes, that's right.
19:39Or become a stop-loss.
19:40Then PNLF.
19:43Yes, for PNLF itself,
19:45if we look at the golden cross stochastic,
19:48the candlestick is also bullish above the moving average of Rp 100.
19:51So for PNLF,
19:53with today, let's take a look at it.
19:57Today it is strong at level Rp 432,
20:00so it's still in the buy area,
20:02so it can buy in area Rp 434, Rp 432
20:04with the first profit at Rp 444
20:07and the second profit at Rp 456 for PNLF.
20:10Okay, four places, then Rp 456
20:12and stop-loss at Rp 414.
20:15The buy level is at Rp 430.
20:18Yes, that's right.
20:19Last, BRMS.
20:21Yes, if we look at BRMS,
20:23today it has risen,
20:25even though it was said to be open at the previous price, Rp 414,
20:29now it is at Rp 426, Rp 428.
20:32Why did it rise so significantly today?
20:38Because we see,
20:40there is a sentiment related to the income
20:42that was released last Friday,
20:44it experienced an increase of 54%,
20:47and the interest also,
20:49sorry, the interest increased by 54%,
20:51the income increased by more than 200%.
20:54So one of the sentiments is why BRMS
20:56has risen and can be traded today.
21:01So if it's a typical conservative or moderate,
21:05it's better to be patient at Rp 414,
21:07but if you are aggressive,
21:09you can buy at the current price at Rp 424 or Rp 426,
21:13you can buy there with the first target at Rp 446
21:17and the second profit is at Rp 458 for BRMS.
21:20What is the shape of BRMS so far?
21:24Yes, the pattern for BRMS itself,
21:27if we look at the rebound technique,
21:30if we look at the long-term trend,
21:33it is still an uptrend,
21:35especially when, for example,
21:37BRMS is able to break out today
21:39at the moving average of Rp 20,000 at Rp 430,000
21:42and now it has hit Rp 430,000.
21:44Let's see if the closing is able to survive at Rp 430,000 or not.
21:48If it is able to survive,
21:50it is very possible for BRMS to return to the level of Rp 446,000
21:53or even above Rp 450,000.
21:56Okay, that's it for the recommendation and selection.
21:58We have reviewed for you,
22:00at 9.10 p.m. Western Indonesia time,
22:03we will update the data
22:05from the Samgabung Index,
22:07the opening based on the data we have from the IISG.
22:10According to the strength, it is not too significant,
22:13around 0.20% or around 10 points
22:18at the position of Rp 7,123,000.
22:23With the exchange rate of Rupiah against the US dollar this morning
22:26weakening at Rp 15,851,000.
22:29The weakness is only 0.07%.
22:32And some of the shareholders who became top gainers
22:35based on value and also top losers based on value.
22:39Among others, the shareholder is Adaro.
22:41Again, this emitter has changed its name
22:44to Alamtri Resources Indonesia TBK
22:47with a strength of 2.5% after last week
22:50experienced a low auto-reject.
22:52Then there is BRMS also increased by 3.38% at Rp 428,000.
22:57One of the recommendation and selection from Mr. Hendra earlier.
23:00PTRO increased by 8.5% at Rp 21,400.
23:05JIHD or Jakarta International Hotels
23:08which was weak and significant last Friday
23:10also continued to strengthen
23:12around 14% at Rp 30,000.
23:15We mean Rp 3,110.
23:18UNTR, FUTR, KPIG, ECEI Dewa and IMPC
23:23are the top 10 shareholders based on value right now.
23:26Losers there are GoTo which fell by 1.41%
23:29at around Rp 70,000.
23:32Film fell by almost 2%.
23:34TPIA Pemirsa, Citi, Boat, TOSK,
23:38then HEAL, MAPA, SSMS,
23:42TRON, MNCN, and DOSS.
23:48BRMS is one of the top gainers,
23:50but there is MAPA, your recommendation,
23:52which is the top loser.
23:53What is your opinion, Mr. Hendra?
23:55Yes, because if we look at last Friday,
23:58MAPA was actually very interesting in terms of candlestick,
24:02but today it is actually a weakness of 3.64%.
24:05What I said earlier,
24:07when, for example, HILICAL INVESTOR is aggressive,
24:10maybe it's still interesting for MAPA
24:12because the candlestick, technically,
24:16is still very interesting,
24:18but today there is quite a high pressure.
24:22Before we finish,
24:23looking at the opening of the business at the beginning of December
24:26and at the end of this year,
24:28what is the opportunity like?
24:30Okay, until the end of the year,
24:32what I said earlier,
24:33for example, there is a positive sentiment
24:36with a 12% PPN reduction
24:39and there is a catalyst,
24:40for example, Define,
24:41to reduce the flow rate again,
24:42so there is a chance for DI to reduce the flow rate again.
24:45It is very possible for IHSG to experience window tracing
24:50and can sometimes strengthen to the level of 7,300 to 7,400.
24:54But when, for example,
24:55the sentiments that I hope will not happen,
24:58it is very possible that IHSG will correct
25:02or test the strongest support area at the psychological level of 7,000.
25:06That's all.
25:07Thank you, Mr. Hen,
25:08for sharing the information and recommendations this morning.
25:11Good luck with your activities.
25:13See you again, sir.