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00:00Baru so you intend to stay upstate?
00:02Warna Intense, tahan hingga 12 jam. Beli sekarang.
00:05Thank you for joining us, ladies and gentlemen.
00:07And now we will look at the interesting economic agenda for us to discuss.
00:11In the United States, there is data on unemployment,
00:14then there is data on unemployment,
00:16and in Canada, there is a change in the number of jobs.
00:19Then from the European Union,
00:21domestic products, and from South Korea, transactions are running.
00:25And from Vietnam, there is data on consumer goods index,
00:28and then from India, there is a deficit.
00:30Next, we will look at the METAN agenda,
00:33which we have already discussed, as you can see on the television screen.
00:37Yes, WIRG, then VKTR,
00:40and also MBMA held by RUPS,
00:42while for SCMA, Axio, Boba,
00:45SKRN held by the Interim Cash Dividend Payment,
00:48ADARU, Cash Dividend Payment,
00:50then NICL, Interim Cash Dividend,
00:52while there is IPCC, Interim Cash Dividend,
00:56and Unilever, then Power,
00:58and also GEMS, Interim Cash Dividend.
01:03And next, we will look at the opening of Asia's major exchanges this morning.
01:10For Asia's major exchanges,
01:12Compaq opened weak this morning,
01:14with Nikkei weakening 0.53%,
01:16at level 39,185.
01:20SCI Singapore weakening 0.41%,
01:22at level 3,807.
01:24Then Kospi Korea,
01:26opened weak 0.3%,
01:28at level 2,434.
01:30For Kospi Korea and also Hang Seng Hong Kong,
01:33opened weak 0.92%.
01:49Yes, and in order to discuss this morning,
01:51we have a video conference with Mr. Santosa Kristianus Gunawan,
01:55Director of PT Lotus Andalan Sekuritas.
01:58Good morning, Mr. Santosa.
02:00Good morning, Mr. Beji.
02:02Good morning. Thank you for joining us at MarketBus.
02:06I hope we will always be Mr. Santosa.
02:08Talking about the weakening of SKRN,
02:10not only happened in Indonesia,
02:12we can also see
02:14the weakening of domestic and foreign exchanges
02:17also happened in Asia's major exchanges.
02:19If we look at the opening data,
02:21in Asia's major exchanges,
02:23in the morning, Kompak opened weak.
02:26How do you see this?
02:28And how do you see the opportunity for ESG
02:32to rebound in today's trade, Mr. Santosa?
02:36Yes, for the condition of today's market,
02:41it is very influenced by global exchanges.
02:45Because in December,
02:49there are many fund managers who are starting to have fun.
02:57It can be said that they are ready to have fun with their families.
03:09So I see that with this condition,
03:13the condition in Indonesia maintains its portfolio.
03:19So these big investors can be said to maintain their portfolio
03:28so that it does not fall too much
03:31in a condition where many foreign countries are starting to sell.
03:38Like that, all this time, especially in Sunbanking.
03:41That's it, Mr. Beji.
03:42Okay, and if we look at Bangbang Himbara and Bangbang BWMN,
03:46some of them were targeted for profit-taking.
03:50That's why Samsung's BWMN or Becaps Banking
03:54also intensified the movement of IHSG.
03:57And if we look here, it means that
04:00about the possibility of Santa Claus Rally
04:03and also window dressing,
04:06how can this be a balance of weak sentiment
04:10which is of course led by foreign investors
04:15to realize profits because they want to go on vacation.
04:20Yes, so for Santa Claus Rally momentum,
04:25it is indeed a bonus.
04:28There is a statement in December,
04:32usually IHSG in this month is green.
04:36Like that, Mr. Beji.
04:38So we hope that what we hold,
04:43our portfolio can be said to be a blessing.
04:50We also get profit
04:53when the fund manager may maintain his portfolio.
04:58Yes, from all this time,
05:00first in October-November,
05:05he has a lot of pressure in the banking sector.
05:10Especially in the TRI sector.
05:13It's very sad if I look at it.
05:16He has foreign net sales,
05:20it can be said to be almost 70%
05:26from assets since Mr. Prabowo was appointed as president.
05:31Like that, Mr. Beji.
05:33If we look at the weaknesses of the IMF,
05:36can this be directly used by the market players
05:40to enter at a cheap price?
05:42Or is it possible that it will still be hit by profit-taking?
05:50So we have to see why foreign investors
05:53let go of the IMF, especially in the TRI sector.
05:58We have to pay attention.
06:00Do they reduce the burden of banking in Indonesia?
06:05Because including the TRI sector,
06:07they are also selling,
06:09so it's not just selling.
06:12So this is what is being monitored.
06:15It doesn't mean that it can be said,
06:18okay, this has gone down,
06:20then after that we hope to go up.
06:22In my opinion, this is an important role in the banking sector.
06:27Because they have a very large portfolio.
06:29So we have to see until foreign investors
06:32make a return on investment.
06:35And in my opinion,
06:36in the last few months,
06:38they have the intention to reduce the burden
06:41of banking in Indonesia.
06:43Okay, it means that the trend of weakness continues
06:45in Samsung based on banking, in your point of view.
06:48Okay, Mr. Santosa,
06:50if we talk about the statement of DOFIS
06:53from the head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell,
06:56which is related to a decrease in the level of the Bung Acuan tribe
06:59in the United States.
07:01And this seems to be a driving force
07:04for the strengthening of the US dollar.
07:06What are the correlations with certain sectors
07:08and what is the sentiment of the Federal Reserve, Mr. Santosa?
07:12Indeed, this meeting of DOFIS
07:14will be held this month on the 17th and 18th.
07:17So the decision is on the 18th of December.
07:19So we hope,
07:21what we really hope for
07:24is to reduce the Bung Acuan tribe by 25 basis points.
07:28So that there is no pressure on the rupiah.
07:31But we still have to be aware
07:34of the economic data
07:36that will come out one by one like that.
07:41And for the effect of the Bung Acuan tribe in Indonesia
07:48on their base or the decline of the Bung Acuan tribe,
07:51it will be very good.
07:53Because one of the psychological sectors
07:55is the rupiah, Mr. Wiki.
07:59So based on the Rp. 16,000,
08:02maybe it will be like 1 YNC.
08:05But if the rupiah goes up,
08:07maybe the biggest investors
08:11will also see that we are safer.
08:14Compared to if DOFIS does not reduce the Bung Acuan tribe,
08:17in fact, in the future there is a view
08:19to re-increase the Bung Acuan tribe.
08:22So we have to look at the conditions in the United States.
08:26Like that, Mr. Wiki.
08:27Okay, then continue to monitor
08:29what is happening in the United States
08:31regarding the decision of DOFIS itself.
08:33Will it continue to maintain the Bung Acuan tribe level
08:37or go down or go up like that?
08:39Okay, we move on to the items
08:41that yesterday were quite interesting for us to discuss.
08:44Mr. Santosa, among them is the IPO.
08:47ADI, then also TPIA,
08:49there is BBCA which is a significant strengthening record.
08:53If you look at these three stocks,
08:56what is it like?
08:57How interesting do you think, Mr. Santosa?
09:01Yes, for ADI, it went up by 20%
09:04since the IPO until Rp 5,550,000.
09:09So there are investors who get
09:15they have a right, PUPS,
09:19so they get the right to
09:21break through the ADARU holding
09:25to become an ADI share.
09:28Which today is the breakthrough
09:30and the distribution is from the 9th.
09:34So next week people who have the right
09:39to break through and become ADI.
09:41And we just look at it.
09:43I see that there is a supply.
09:45For those who break through,
09:47they will sell or do profit-taking.
09:50Because it can be said
09:52now many are doing short-term trading.
09:56So that's for ADARU.
09:58And for TPIA, I see it as a technical rebound.
10:02Because last week, if I'm not mistaken,
10:05it went down quite a bit.
10:07And for BBCA, it's still sustainable.
10:11So it went down and up in balance
10:14from last week and this week.
10:19So BBCA is still sustainable.
10:23So for foreign investors,
10:26the BBCA shares are not as much
10:30as BBRI and Bank Mandiri.
10:33So that's about these shares.
10:37Okay.
10:38Mr. Santosa, if we look earlier,
10:40you said it was still used for trading
10:44or maybe long-term investment.
10:46But fundamentally, from the company itself
10:48or maybe from the Induk company,
10:50is it interesting or not for us to collect
10:52in the long term for ADI?
10:55Mr. Santosa.
10:57Yes, for ADI, it can be said
11:00we have to see later
11:03at the time of this meeting,
11:07where the distribution of ADI shares
11:13from 9 to 10, they can already sell.
11:16So here we have to see
11:19how strong the movement of ADI shares
11:24will be next week.
11:26So this is a minimum determination.
11:28We can't see it, but overall,
11:34many will benefit
11:36from the distribution of ADI shares.
11:40Like that.
11:41Okay.
11:42We will continue to monitor
11:44to make the most of it,
11:46more or less, Mr. Santosa.
11:47Okay.
11:48We will have a break.
11:49After the next break,
11:50we will continue to discuss
11:52Samsam Pilihan from you, Mr. Santosa,
11:54and if you stay with us,
11:55we will be right back.
11:56Thank you for staying with us.
11:58And before I continue the discussion with Mr. Santosa,
12:00we will take a look at this morning's Samsam Pilihan
12:03from Mr. Santosa,
12:05Director of PT Lotus Andalan Sekuritas,
12:08as you can see on the TV screen.
12:11Samsam Pilihan this time is Inco,
12:13with support at 1.7100,
12:16resistance at 8000,
12:18with tradingbuy recommendation,
12:20INDF, support at 0.575,
12:22then resistance at 7000,
12:24tradingbuy,
12:25DSNG, support at 590,
12:27resistance at 660,
12:29tradingbuy recommendation,
12:30and Excel,
12:31with tradingbuy recommendation,
12:33support at 2170,
12:34then resistance at 2530.
12:39Okay, Mr. Santosa,
12:40let's continue the discussion.
12:41Let's go to Inco first.
12:43How interesting is the movement of Inco
12:45so that we can use it
12:47in a short-term trading, Mr. Santosa?
12:52Yes, for Inco,
12:54I see that
12:56the price has risen
13:00by 1.1%
13:02at IDR 3640
13:04this week,
13:06even though the trend is still under pressure.
13:09Like that.
13:11So this is short-term.
13:13There is support at level 3510
13:17in the short term.
13:19Like that, Mr. Wiki,
13:21for Inco.
13:23Okay, even though it is on a downward trend,
13:25the movement can still be used
13:27for trading like that,
13:29followed by the movement of Inco itself.
13:32Okay, in the long term,
13:35isn't it interesting for Inco itself,
13:37Mr. Santosa?
13:39For Inco,
13:41it can be said that
13:45it is one of the materials
13:49for EV,
13:51for electric vehicles,
13:54for the battery.
13:56So I see that
13:58for the long term,
14:00it is quite good,
14:03in my opinion.
14:05But there must be a strategy
14:08for money management,
14:10it must be good.
14:12Then buy,
14:14in a position like this,
14:16it is better to buy at one run,
14:18Mr. Wiki.
14:20Don't buy when it goes up.
14:22Because at the end of the year,
14:24we know that there are also investors
14:26who play for a month, a year,
14:28and they want to realize their profits,
14:30and they want to take a break.
14:32So there is a possibility that
14:34we can get it in a year.
14:36So we don't have to rush
14:38to directly buy 100.
14:40We can directly buy 100.
14:42Don't buy 25 first.
14:44Because there is a possibility
14:46that we can get a good average
14:48when it goes down.
14:50Okay, from Inko,
14:52we move on to the next option,
14:54Mr. Satosa, please.
14:56Yes.
14:58I have
15:00an option,
15:02Indoput.
15:04Indoput,
15:06it can be said that
15:08in this month,
15:10it has increased by almost 4%, Mr. Wiki.
15:12So we know
15:14for
15:18eating for free
15:20or how, what benefits
15:22from Indoput.
15:24But it can be said
15:26for consumer goods,
15:28it is indeed one of the sectors
15:30that is very
15:32sustainable in any condition
15:34because the sales
15:36are very consistent.
15:38So
15:40for Indoput itself,
15:42in my opinion,
15:44just wait when there is a correction.
15:46Then we start to
15:48do it again.
15:50Like that, Mr. Wiki.
15:52Okay, for the next option,
15:54please, sir.
15:56For
15:58the next stock,
16:00that is
16:02the DSMG stock.
16:04DSMG,
16:06wait a minute, Mr. Wiki.
16:08So,
16:10the DSMG stock
16:12can be said
16:14that it has been
16:16for 3 months,
16:18it has been increasing.
16:20And yesterday,
16:22there was a consolidation
16:24even though in the month
16:26of
16:28December,
16:30in this week, it has increased by almost 4%.
16:32So,
16:34Mr. Wiki,
16:36to make a purchase
16:38in this condition,
16:40I see to buy
16:42based on a correction
16:44or a decrease.
16:46Like that, Mr. Wiki.
16:48DSMG is recommended for trading
16:50first.
16:52In terms of sector,
16:54is it interesting, Mr. Santosa?
16:56In terms of projection,
16:58DSMG itself is one of the factors
17:00that may have a good
17:02resilience or
17:04may have upside potential.
17:06Maybe you also see
17:08there is a possibility for DSMG
17:10to be interesting to be collected
17:12or collected in the medium to long term,
17:14Mr. Santosa.
17:16Yes,
17:18I see
17:20that for DSMG,
17:22it can be said
17:24that it
17:26enters the
17:28consumer goods sector.
17:30So,
17:32it can be said
17:34that
17:36it is more
17:38to the
17:40production of palm oil.
17:42So, we need to know
17:44that the government also
17:46has a plan for
17:48D50,
17:50such as biodiesel.
17:52So, the use of
17:54palm oil can be said
17:56to be very
17:58needed
18:00to
18:02replace
18:04fossil energy.
18:06That's all.
18:08Okay, from DSMG,
18:10we move to the last stock, Mr. Santosa.
18:14For
18:16the last stock,
18:18it is
18:20Excel Commindo.
18:22Excel Commindo
18:24can be said
18:26that during
18:28this week, in December,
18:30it only increased by 1.8 percent.
18:32So,
18:34in my opinion,
18:36it can
18:38follow other
18:40communication channels,
18:42such as Indosat.
18:44So,
18:46one sector is
18:48Indosat and Excel Commindo.
18:50In my opinion,
18:52it can
18:54be observed
18:56and
19:00in the future,
19:02if I see it accumulates
19:04Excel Commindo
19:06at the current price,
19:08maybe at 2,200.
19:10If there is a decrease
19:12of 2,200, it can accumulate
19:14again. That's all, sir.
19:16Okay, that's all the choices.
19:18This morning, there is Excel,
19:20then there is DSMG.
19:22The other two stocks
19:24have also been discussed. There is Indofood,
19:26one of them, Mr. Santosa.
19:28It's been a long time, sir.
19:30I just remembered.
19:32Oh, yes.
19:34Okay, the other stock that
19:36you think is interesting, Mr. Santosa,
19:38what do you think?
19:40Yes, there are two, actually.
19:42Indosat, which I mentioned earlier,
19:44because it is currently playing in AI
19:46and NVIDIA too.
19:48So, that can be observed.
19:50NVIDIA in the stock market
19:52can be said
19:54that the increase is very high
19:56and becomes one of the
19:58largest market cap
20:00in the US
20:02for NVIDIA. Then,
20:04one more thing, if we want to
20:06invest, it is in Aman stocks,
20:08Mr. Wiki. So, people see
20:10that if they want to play
20:12in this mining sector,
20:14like Aman,
20:16we have to see rather than
20:18buying in the US dollar only.
20:20So, to save, I see Aman
20:22is still cheap because it is still
20:24in the US dollar.
20:26Meanwhile, if we look at the competitors,
20:28such as Freeport
20:30and Newmont abroad, they are already
20:32tens of dollars. Meanwhile, we are still
20:34in the form of cents
20:36if we convert it to
20:38US dollars. That's all,
20:40Mr. Wiki, for the addition. Thank you.
20:42Okay, those are the options
20:44from Mr. Santosa. And if we
20:46look at the opening
20:48of IHSG,
20:50you can see
20:52or appear from RTI
20:54for the movement of IHSG
20:56so far, in your opinion,
20:58what is it like, Mr. Santosa?
21:00So far, IHSG is still moving
21:02weakly, right?
21:04Yes.
21:06Yes, it is
21:08going up and down thinly like that.
21:10Because it is an opening
21:12from
21:14not yet
21:16seen
21:18yet.
21:20For it to have
21:22its price,
21:24it hasn't held
21:26yet, Mr. Wiki.
21:28So, for
21:30AADI, again,
21:32it was auto-rejected.
21:34So, it went up
21:3620% again, Mr. Wiki,
21:38the new listing yesterday.
21:40So, this is
21:42interesting. Let's see
21:44later whether it will still hold
21:46on Monday
21:48from Monday
21:50to the 10th, when
21:52people who pass the PS
21:54from the AADOHA
21:56can get AADI.
21:58Whether they sell or what.
22:00That's the decision, Mr. Wiki.
22:02Okay, that's it.
22:04A little analysis for the movement
22:06of IHSG this morning, which is moving
22:08weakly, and the same
22:10that entered the top-gen race, including
22:12Lada Gotoboat, then Energi, VKTR,
22:14DIVA, BSBK,
22:16PRA, GPSO, SML,
22:18and DOS. Then,
22:20Losers, DOH, DEWA,
22:22BBKR,
22:24BBKP,
22:26MPPA, MANG,
22:28ADARO, JIHD, MD.
22:30Okay, Mr. Santosa,
22:32what do you think
22:34about the closing of trading
22:36this afternoon for IHSG?
22:38Just like I have
22:40a cricket ball,
22:42it will be like this.
22:44What are the indicators?
22:46How much
22:48can be projected?
22:50In my opinion,
22:52this is a timeframe.
22:54So,
22:56I just want to say
22:58for retail investors,
23:00especially,
23:02don't invest in companies that are rising.
23:04In my opinion,
23:06we have to change this strategy.
23:08So, companies that are going down,
23:10go down deep,
23:12we have to calculate. For example,
23:14for example,
23:16for example,
23:18ADARO, it gives a dividend of Rp. 1,300.
23:20It goes down by Rp. 1,500.
23:22It means,
23:24we can speculate,
23:26it means, there are many people
23:28panic selling ADARO,
23:30until it has a dividend of Rp. 1,300,
23:32but it goes down by Rp. 1,500.
23:34And that's why it rebounded.
23:36So, things like that,
23:38we have to calculate.
23:40So, don't invest in companies that are rising.
23:42That's my suggestion.
23:44And regarding the market condition,
23:46I see,
23:48it will be okay.
23:50Because the conditions in the US
23:52are consolidating.
23:54So,
23:56it's more negative.
23:58We can also be affected by this.
24:00Let's see, Mr. Witti.
24:02I hope I'm wrong, Mr. Witti.
24:04Okay. Thank you for the analysis
24:06and also some of the recommendations.
24:08I hope it can be a reference for the market players
24:10in implementing the investment strategy
24:12today.
24:14But, once again, the investment decision
24:16is up to you, investors out there.
24:18Mr. Santoso, thank you for joining us.
24:20Good luck to you.
24:22I'll see you next time.