Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) melaporkan neraca perdagangan Indonesia kembali mencetak surplus sebesar USD4,42 miliar pada bulan November 2024. Dengan demikian, Indonesia mencatatkan surplus neraca perdagangan selama 55 bulan beruntun, sejak Mei 2020.
Surplus neraca perdagangan November 2024 tercatat lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan Oktober 2024 yaitu USD2,48 miliar dan bulan yang sama tahun 2023 lalu, sebesar USD2,41 miliar. Kinerja surplus neraca perdagangan Indonesia di November 2024 ditopang oleh kinerja ekspor yang mencapai USD24,01 miliar. Sedangkan, kinerja impor tercatat USD19,59 miliar.
Surplus neraca perdagangan November 2024 tercatat lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan Oktober 2024 yaitu USD2,48 miliar dan bulan yang sama tahun 2023 lalu, sebesar USD2,41 miliar. Kinerja surplus neraca perdagangan Indonesia di November 2024 ditopang oleh kinerja ekspor yang mencapai USD24,01 miliar. Sedangkan, kinerja impor tercatat USD19,59 miliar.
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00:21Hello viewers, how are you today?
00:23Back again with me, Prasetyo Wibowo in Market Review,
00:27to talk about issues that affect the economy in Indonesia.
00:30You can watch our live streaming at idxchannel.com.
00:33Let's start the complete market review.
00:45Indonesia's trade surplus in November 2024 is 2.42 billion USD.
00:53Even though the U.S. re-estimated the trade surplus for 55 months,
00:58the trade surplus is also affected by the decline in export and monthly imports.
01:09Statistics Center reported that Indonesia's trade surplus re-estimated the U.S. trade surplus of 4.42 billion USD in November 2024.
01:22Thus, Indonesia re-estimated the trade surplus for 55 months since May 2020.
01:31The trade surplus in November 2024 was higher than in October 2024,
01:39which is 2.48 billion USD in the same month as last year, 2.41 billion USD.
01:49Indonesia's trade surplus in November 2024 was supported by export, which reached 24.01 billion USD,
01:59while the imported trade surplus was recorded at 19.59 billion USD.
02:05Indonesia's trade surplus has recorded a 55-month trade surplus since May 2020.
02:16Indonesia's trade surplus in November 2024 was higher than in the same month as last year.
02:27Indonesia's trade surplus in November 2024 was supported by non-U.S. trade surplus.
02:35Meanwhile, Indonesia's export performance cumulatively from January to November 2024 recorded 28.86 billion USD.
02:45However, the January-November 2023 period recorded 33.6 billion USD.
02:51Thus, there was a trade surplus of 4.74 billion USD during the January-November 2024 period.
03:01From Jakarta, IDX Channel.
03:32In September, there was a trade surplus of 3.26 billion USD.
03:34In October, there was a trade surplus of 2.48 billion USD.
03:38In November, there was a trade surplus of 4.42 billion USD.
03:44Next, we will see how Indonesia's trade surplus was supported.
03:52As we can see, there was a trade surplus of 24.01 billion USD,
03:58while the imported trade surplus was recorded at 19.59 billion USD.
04:01Thus, there was a trade surplus of 4.42 billion USD.
04:05Thus, we can see that Indonesia's export and imported trade surpluses
04:10have decreased by 10.71% per month.
04:16Next, we will discuss about Indonesia's trade surplus for the past 55 months.
04:26We will continue this discussion through Zoom with Mr. Tauhid Ahmad.
04:30He is a senior in-depth economist.
04:32Hello, how are you, Mr. Tauhid?
04:34Hello, how are you?
04:36How are you? Thank you for your time.
04:39Mr. Tauhid and Mr. Benny Suterisno,
04:42General Director of GPEI.
04:46Hello, Mr. Suterisno. How are you?
04:48I'm fine, thank you.
04:50Thank you for your time.
04:52Before we discuss further,
04:54Mr. Benny, can you give us a brief review of the trade surplus in November?
05:00This year, there was a trade surplus of 4.42 billion USD
05:06after it decreased in October.
05:08Is it in line with your expectation?
05:11Maybe it's also from the businessmen, Mr. Benny.
05:14Actually, the export conjuncture is always in the fourth quarter.
05:19It will definitely increase.
05:21Maybe there is a need in the big days
05:24and at the end of the year in the western countries.
05:28It's always like that.
05:30Later, in the first quarter, it will decrease again.
05:32Okay, so it's cyclical, Mr. Benny?
05:36That's right.
05:38Mr. Tauhid, from your perspective,
05:40how is the trade surplus in November?
05:44Again, is the economic consensus the same?
05:47I think, if you look at it,
05:50it's been improving since the beginning of the year.
05:52At the beginning of the year,
05:54we averaged around 2 billion USD,
05:56followed by around 4 billion USD.
06:00So, if we look at the whole characteristic,
06:02actually, the year 2024 is relatively improving
06:07compared to the year 2023,
06:10if we look at the graph, it tends to go down.
06:13This condition, of course,
06:15there are some countries that tend to improve their position,
06:21especially if we look at the month of November,
06:24there is America,
06:26then there are other countries,
06:32including China,
06:35which has also started to improve.
06:37In China, if we look at the 27.52% portion,
06:43China has slightly improved around 6.24%.
06:47So, it's relatively good.
06:49Meanwhile, other countries, such as India, Asia, and Europe,
06:52are experiencing a decline.
06:55I think there is a fiscal expansion,
06:59especially in China,
07:00which causes the condition to start to improve,
07:02even though, in aggregate,
07:04it feels like the economic growth rate in China is still below 5%.
07:08So, there are indeed some pushes
07:11from some of our main export-oriented countries.
07:14Okay, that's it.
07:15So, the condition of our export-oriented countries is getting better.
07:19Earlier, the economic condition was a fresh breeze,
07:22which is also a booster for our export-oriented countries,
07:25or the trading surplus in the month of November.
07:28If we look at the export-oriented countries,
07:31in November 2024,
07:32the export value reached US$24.01 billion.
07:36It fell by 1.7% compared to the previous month.
07:39But if we compare it to November 2023,
07:42it rose by 9.14%.
07:45Is the realization of the export-oriented countries
07:48in accordance with the conditions on the ground,
07:51or is it something that the GPEI colleagues experienced?
07:54Yes, in the United States, there is a improvement.
07:57The US dollar also rose,
08:00and the inflation was also recognized there.
08:03Okay.
08:04Then, their money is indeed stronger
08:07than the money in East Asia,
08:10so they choose to be cheaper
08:12than before.
08:14In China,
08:16China is approaching the end of the year
08:19or even closer to the end of the year.
08:21There is also a preparation
08:23to accumulate the materials they need.
08:26Especially in China,
08:28the most is coconut,
08:30CPU, and coal.
08:33That is a very traditional part.
08:39Okay, but if we look at the non-MEGAS export,
08:42Mr. Benny, what do you think?
08:44In November, US$22.69 billion fell
08:48by 1.67% compared to October.
08:50But again, it also rose
08:52compared to November 2023.
08:55Is the non-MEGAS sector
08:57again becoming Indonesia's export pillar?
09:01Yes, it is still a non-MEGAS sector.
09:04Because our MEGAS is always negative.
09:07Okay.
09:08We have never used MEGAS plus.
09:11After MEGAS,
09:13the lifting did not go up.
09:16But our demand continues to rise.
09:19For non-MEGAS,
09:21there are a lot of commodity variants.
09:24Farming, agriculture, forestry,
09:27sea, then manufacturing industry.
09:30There are quite a lot of variants.
09:32So, there are several countries
09:34that are specific
09:36to the commodity we make.
09:41Like CPU,
09:43and frying oil.
09:45China, India, Bangladesh, Pakistan.
09:48It is very necessary
09:50to use the CPU.
09:53Then the manufactured commodities,
09:56household,
09:58clothes,
10:00children's toys, electronics.
10:02America is part of our market.
10:06Okay, Mr. Benny.
10:07We will discuss later
10:09about the energy export
10:11from our advantageous commodities.
10:13We will discuss later in the next segment.
10:16We will take a break.
10:17And, Mr. Mirsa,
10:18make sure you are still with us.
10:29Thank you for joining us
10:30in Market Review.
10:31Mr. Mirsa,
10:32next, we will share data
10:34about the energy export
10:35from our advantageous commodities
10:37for the non-MEGAS sector.
10:39You can watch the full data
10:41on your TV screen
10:42in November 2024.
10:45First, coal.
10:46The export value is US$2.62 billion.
10:50But, in terms of the month,
10:52we see an increase of 3.82 percent.
10:54Meanwhile, the year is minus 4.43 percent.
10:56Meanwhile, iron and steel.
10:58The export value is US$2.4 billion.
11:00In terms of the month and year,
11:02they both experienced an increase.
11:04Meanwhile, the CPU is interesting.
11:06In terms of the month,
11:07it is minus 11.76 percent.
11:09The export value is US$2.09 billion.
11:11But, in terms of the year,
11:13the energy output is still positive 2.24 percent.
11:16That is for the energy export.
11:18Next, we will see
11:19how about the import energy,
11:21the non-MEGAS commodities as well.
11:24There are machines, mechanical equipment.
11:26The energy output in terms of the month and year
11:29is both negative.
11:31Then,
11:32secondly,
11:33the electrical equipment.
11:37In terms of the month,
11:38it is minus 15.49 percent.
11:40Meanwhile, in terms of the year, it is minus 0.09 percent.
11:42Then, the iron and steel.
11:44Again, in terms of the month and year,
11:47the import energy growth is negative.
11:51Alright, we will continue.
11:52We just had a discussion with Mr. Tauhid Ahmad,
11:54Indef Senior Economist,
11:55and Mr. Benny Suterisno,
11:57General Chairman of the Indonesian Export Company.
12:00Alright, we will continue.
12:03Mr. Tauhid, if we look at the current condition,
12:06and the data that we have provided,
12:09our non-MEGAS commodities export,
12:12there are still iron, steel, CPU, and so on.
12:16But what do you think about the iron?
12:20If we look at the year, it is minus 4.43 percent.
12:23Meanwhile, the CPU is also the mainstay
12:26in terms of the month, it is negative 11 percent.
12:29Mr. Tauhid.
12:31Yes, if we look at the iron,
12:34in terms of volume, it shows an increase.
12:39In November, it was around 35.13 million tons,
12:44and in the previous year, it was 3.477 million tons.
12:47Okay.
12:48Indeed, what makes it a bit unstable,
12:51compared to last year,
12:53is of course due to the price factor.
12:56In November, it was around US$74.4 per ton,
13:02which is lower than last year,
13:05which was around US$80 per ton.
13:11Okay.
13:12That is for the iron.
13:14If we look at the iron and steel,
13:16in terms of volume, the trend is also increasing.
13:18Yes.
13:19However, if we look at it,
13:20the price is actually lower than last year.
13:25It is actually lower, far lower.
13:28Okay.
13:29That is why there is a slight change.
13:33However, in terms of month-to-month,
13:35it is better in terms of price.
13:38This is what I think is the reason why there is a difference.
13:41If the CPU, with the current policy trend,
13:45which changes B35, B40,
13:49it causes market concerns
13:51that the world supply will decrease.
13:54If we look at our export fluctuation,
13:57the CPU is very fluctuating
13:59compared to the iron, steel, and steel.
14:02This is why the uncertainty in the volume
14:05has a great impact on the price.
14:07If we look at the market,
14:08the trend compared to last year,
14:11and last month, has increased.
14:13In November, it was around US$1,090 per ton.
14:19Whereas last year,
14:22it was around US$808.46 per ton.
14:27So, the fluctuation in policy in our country
14:31has a great impact on the market,
14:33including the price for the CPU and its decrease.
14:36Okay.
14:37How about the projection until the end of the year?
14:39With the global geopolitical condition,
14:41which in some regions is still quite hot.
14:44In terms of price,
14:46in all communities,
14:49steel, iron, steel, and CPU,
14:51I see that the price trend will increase.
14:56The volume is still relative,
14:58even though there is a slight increase.
15:01Indeed, due to the geopolitical tension,
15:04each country has its own export goals.
15:07Some of them, as mentioned earlier,
15:10Mr. Benny will also add subsidies
15:13for new year activities
15:15or preparation for the industry in early 2025.
15:19Okay.
15:20Mr. Benny, how do you see
15:22the performance of export
15:24of our excellent non-MEGAS commodities?
15:26As you can see,
15:27the trend will continue to rise
15:29in terms of cyclical,
15:31at the end of the year,
15:33many countries are also preparing stocks
15:36for the long term.
15:38Indeed, there is a commodity market.
15:43The stock market is controlled
15:45by the stock players.
15:47Of course, the stock players need commodities.
15:50They just need money to be raised.
15:53Secondly, due to the geopolitical tension,
15:57many countries have added subsidies.
16:01Okay.
16:02Subsidies are needed if there is a stock.
16:06At the moment,
16:07there is an increase in logistic prices,
16:09where the logistic price continues to rise.
16:11Okay.
16:12Especially due to the disruption
16:14of the Suez Strait,
16:16the Middle East,
16:18so the price of fuel
16:21to transport goods also rises.
16:23That will also form the price.
16:27Okay.
16:28If it is predicted here,
16:30will it continue like that?
16:32I don't think anyone can predict
16:35when it will end
16:37in the Middle East.
16:39If Ukraine continues,
16:41I think both countries will be tired.
16:44Okay.
16:45We will talk about the import energy.
16:47Is it more to the needs
16:49of our resources
16:51as a driver of the manufacturing industry
16:53or the manufacturing industry in Indonesia?
16:55We will discuss it in the next segment.
16:57We will be back after a short break.
16:59We will be right back.
17:31It can be said that
17:33almost everyone experiences
17:35negative growth,
17:37both in terms of months and years.
17:39What do we see?
17:40Does it have any impact
17:42on the activity of the industry
17:44in the country, Mr. Beni?
17:47That's right.
17:48If the import of goods
17:50decreases,
17:51it means that in the country
17:53there is already an increase
17:55in the industry,
17:56so it reduces import.
17:58Indeed,
18:00this is the strongest
18:02in Bajaj.
18:03Veronicle is divided into Bajaj.
18:05That will be
18:07the foundation of Indonesia.
18:09Yes.
18:10Then, timber.
18:12Not all countries
18:14have timber.
18:15It happened once.
18:17I forgot the year.
18:18When we sold timber
18:20in the timber market,
18:22the price immediately jumped.
18:24So,
18:26we have to have
18:28our own way
18:29to increase the price.
18:31Just like what Mr. Tauhid said,
18:33our CPU is made of B35,
18:35B40,
18:36maybe B50.
18:38That will reduce the volume,
18:40so the price will be formed by itself.
18:42The market mechanism will definitely increase the price.
18:44Okay.
18:45What about the index itself, Mr. Tauhid?
18:47You see,
18:48with the decrease in the import
18:50of some non-MEGAS commodities,
18:52is it again?
18:53Our BMI manufacturers
18:55are on the decline.
18:57Mr. Tauhid, do you think
18:59this will affect
19:01the productivity of the industry,
19:04the economy,
19:06and eventually our economic growth?
19:09Yes, if we look at it,
19:11especially in month-to-month,
19:13the material of the timber
19:15of the helper
19:17experienced an extraordinary decline.
19:2011.97,
19:22and also the capital
19:24decreased by 10.77.
19:26Only the consumption
19:28decreased by a little.
19:30This shows that
19:32in this month, our BMI
19:34experienced a decline,
19:36because what was bought was also relatively low.
19:38I suspect that the first one is
19:40some domestic markets
19:43experienced a drought,
19:45or we see a decline
19:47due to purchasing power factors, etc.
19:49So this affects
19:51the utility
19:53of our industry.
19:55We can see that in October,
19:57it decreased to November,
19:5911.97,
20:01which means that there was
20:03an extraordinary decline.
20:05If we look at what was mentioned earlier,
20:07both machines, mechanical equipment,
20:09electricity, and steel,
20:11all of them decreased,
20:13which means that there was
20:15an extraordinary decline.
20:17The second factor,
20:19I think the market is also very affected.
20:21This means that for the business
20:23whose goal is to export,
20:25some of them also experienced a decline.
20:27If we look at the month-to-month,
20:29especially for
20:31related industries,
20:33especially
20:35steel, it decreased.
20:37It means that the export market,
20:39the CPO and the decline,
20:41the volume
20:43decreased.
20:45But the price is still high,
20:47so it is not compensated.
20:49This is what caused
20:51why
20:53for imports,
20:55especially non-MEGAS,
20:57the month-to-month
20:59decreased relatively,
21:01because of the domestic and foreign markets,
21:03some of them experienced a decline.
21:05Even though, if we look at
21:07the year-on-year for imports,
21:09it increased, but relatively
21:11decreased.
21:13Our observation is that in a situation
21:15like this,
21:17it is relatively
21:19that we
21:23do not have
21:25enough optimism if
21:27our domestic economy is not
21:29improved.
21:31So, we can say
21:33that it can be recovered.
21:35Secondly, there is momentum.
21:37If imports decrease,
21:39it should be said that
21:41there is an industry
21:43that can replace
21:45the needs
21:47for the domestic industry.
21:49Even though,
21:51it is not easy
21:53and it takes a long time.
21:55Okay.
21:57But in general,
21:59you see that from the surplus
22:01of our trade,
22:03it is quite high quality,
22:05quite healthy.
22:07Because of the surplus,
22:09the imports decreased a lot,
22:11and we can still rely on exports.
22:13If we look at it,
22:15if we look at it,
22:17if we look at
22:19the trend in 2004,
22:21if we take a straight line, it increased.
22:23Even though, if we look at it
22:25monthly, the biggest
22:27performance was in April
22:292022.
22:31It was close to USD
22:337.56 million.
22:35It means that
22:37it was very profitable that year.
22:39At the level of
22:41stagnation,
22:43the trading balance was around USD
22:453 million per month.
22:47So,
22:49there is an effort
22:51for the trend to increase.
22:53But if we look at
22:55the positive trend in 2024,
22:57I see that there is
22:59a tendency for imports
23:01to decrease. This is a domestic factor
23:03that I think
23:07is the main factor.
23:09Because if the domestic import
23:11price decreases, the surplus will increase.
23:15From businessmen,
23:17especially exporters,
23:19what strategy will be done
23:21considering the geopolitical conditions?
23:23Will the GPE
23:25ultimately optimize
23:27domestic markets?
23:29For domestic markets,
23:31no.
23:33We only export.
23:35I think
23:37access to the market
23:39has been formed
23:41by the government.
23:43Maybe access to the market should be added.
23:45But even if we have access to the market,
23:47if we are not competitive,
23:49no one will buy.
23:51It's not included, but no one will buy.
23:53It's also free.
23:55Access to the market should be added.
23:57What I said earlier
23:59is that we have a lot of access to the market,
24:01but we can't
24:03use
24:05all the agreements
24:07on the market.
24:11When forming free trade
24:13agreements,
24:15the involvement of
24:17entrepreneurs is still not too deep.
24:21It is done by bureaucracy
24:23that starts from statistics
24:25but never
24:27digs deeply
24:29what we have
24:31that we can enter the country.
24:33Okay.
24:35That's it.
24:37Some challenges are still
24:39covered by our export companies.
24:41How do we find new markets,
24:43increase cooperation
24:45between government
24:47to enter business to business.
24:49Mr. Tauhid, Mr. Benny,
24:51unfortunately we have limited time.
24:53Thank you for the information, update,
24:55and analysis given to
24:57IDX Channel.
24:59Good luck with your activities.
25:01See you again.
25:03Thank you, Mr. Tauhid.