This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond. Including the festive weather plus a look back in time to a white Christmas here in the UK. Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Honor Criswick.
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00:00Hello there and welcome to this week's Deep Dive. My name is Anna Krzyzwyk and I'm a meteorologist
00:05and presenter here at the Met Office and it's Christmas Eve so we've got a festive Deep
00:09Dive in store for you today. We're going to be talking about the Christmas weather, we'll
00:13also talk about the weather that we can expect as we head into New Year's and also I've got
00:18a little bit of a festive treat for you at the end so make sure you stay tuned and watch
00:22this video all the way to the end to find out. And of course if you enjoy it make sure
00:26you like and subscribe if you haven't done so already. So let's start off then by taking
00:32a look at the bigger picture. So to start off then with Christmas Eve we have got high
00:39pressure just to the south west of the UK so that means lots of settled conditions across
00:44much of England and Wales but it's not glorious sunshine as sometimes high pressure can give
00:49us, there's lots of cloud and moisture trapped underneath this high so it's been quite a
00:54cloudy end to Christmas Eve and just to the north west too we can see just on that northern
01:00flank of the High we've got a good squeeze in the Isobars here so quite blustery weather
01:04at times across the far north west of the country, you could even see a risk of gales
01:08in too tonight. And another noticeable thing as well around Christmas Eve is that it's
01:14been exceptionally mild for the time of year, we're close actually to breaking some of the
01:19Christmas Eve records for example last time I checked up in Scotland in Aberdeen last
01:24time I checked the temperature was 14.7 so that's 0.9 Celsius off the sort of highest
01:31temperature we've seen on Christmas Eve. The highest we've got was 15.6 that was in Scotland
01:38and that was back in the 1930s. So an exceptionally mild Christmas Eve on offer particularly across
01:44parts of Scotland where there is a chance we could potentially break some records and
01:47it's all because we're dragging up this mild air from very far south really close to sort
01:52of the Canary Islands we're dragging up this very mild air which is then crossing the UK
01:59today and also into tomorrow so not only is it going to be quite a mild Christmas Eve but also
02:04as we head into Christmas Day itself it's also going to be mild once again. So if I just drag
02:11this back to Christmas Day this is just through early into the afternoon so we can see that high
02:17pressure is still dominating our weather it has shifted slightly eastwards more towards Europe so
02:22we're still on that slight northwestern edge in the northwest of Scotland we're still on that
02:28northwestern edge of the high pressure so there is still going to be some blustery weather here
02:32at times and also it does mean we are just dragging in a cold front too so there is going
02:37to be some quite wet and windy weather across the far northwest but elsewhere as that high
02:43pressure extends across much of the country there'll be lots of settled weather around
02:47quite cloudy still at times but likely to see a few more brighter spells as we head into Christmas
02:52Day and less of that rain and drizzle pushing into the west too so actually Christmas Day doesn't
02:56look too bad it's going to be largely dry it's going to be mild so it's perfect if you are heading
03:01out for a Christmas Day walk. Then as we head through into Boxing Day it remains fairly similar
03:09still that high pressure just generally dominating across the south of the country we do still have
03:13that frontal system it's very slow moving so it just about moves across sort of northern or central
03:19parts of Scotland that is just still once again going to bring in thicker areas of cloud and some
03:23slightly longer spells of rain here too but once again elsewhere it should be largely settled
03:29though we may just start to see once again that rain and drizzle at times pushing in from the west
03:34then as we finish off the week remains fairly similar still that cold front still sort of just
03:40straddling across western parts of Northern Ireland central and northern parts of Scotland
03:44too so once again it's here where we're going to see the cloud and those more persistent outbreaks
03:49of rain but through into the weekend notice out to the west we see another build of high pressure
03:54and that slowly edges its way as we head into the weekend so we will eventually start to see
04:01more settled weather across most of the country as we head into the weekend but once again if I
04:06just turn up the kind of air mass temperatures so the temperatures high up in the atmosphere
04:10we can see we're starting to see that colder air start to move to the north so starting to get a
04:15bit more of a northwesterly flow more more a chillier kind of air mass across northern areas
04:20and if we do start to see some showers feed in here they could turn a little bit wintry it's
04:24likely this will be mainly over high ground but a chance we could see something wintry as we head
04:29into the weekend but we can see still across central and southern England we're remaining in
04:33that milder air and just this frontal system once again just bringing in some more cloud and perhaps
04:38some outbreaks of rain at times but that high pressure as we head into Sunday eventually moving
04:43its way eastwards across the country and this is generally where we quite like to see high pressure
04:48bringing more settled conditions across a large portion of the country but still once again that
04:52frontal system just to the north that may just drag in some areas of cloud and once again perhaps
04:57some longer spells of rain to the far north even over the weekend but for many it is going to be
05:03largely settled through it through over the Christmas period however I'll just drag onto this
05:12this is a kind of comparison day by day of the sort of weather we can expect so starting off
05:16with Christmas Eve running through into Friday and we can see it looks fairly similar actually
05:21doesn't it most days still lots of cloud around some outbreaks of rain and drizzle at times
05:26we can see on Christmas Christmas Eve generally it's dominating the far northwest of the country
05:32still could see some outbreaks of rain and drizzle across the Pennines for example and in western
05:36areas still as we head into this afternoon but on Christmas Day actually lots of that rain and
05:41drizzle generally fizzling out we can even see some breaks in the cloud the most likely breaks
05:45likely to be just to the lee of high ground but we could also see some across central and southern
05:50parts of the UK too so lots of dry weather around may start to see a few brighter spells break
05:55through that cloud but it's likely to be quite a cloudy and a mild and grey Christmas for many
06:01of us still with those outbreaks of rain just to the far northwest and it's going to be breezier
06:04there too and then for Boxing Day and to end the week once again not much change still plenty of
06:10cloud around outbreaks of rain in the far north too still once again we could see the odd break
06:15just to the east of high ground but for many quite a cloudy picture as we finish off the week
06:22another thing to take note of is actually temperatures so as I've already mentioned
06:26Christmas Eve is it's very mild this afternoon and there's a chance we could potentially see
06:32some records broken across Scotland for example so it is very mild for the time of year and it's
06:37also being further aided by the fern effect so that's when we have air that pushes up over the
06:41windward side of the mountain it cools and condenses as it is pushed up and as it moves its way down
06:47the lee side of the mountain it's drier and also warmer so even though we are
06:52getting a lot of mild air down from across the Atlantic it's also being further aided by the
06:57fern effect and that means we're further has a slightly higher chance of seeing those records
07:03broken and further aiding to that kind of mild feel in the air now as we head into Christmas
07:07you can see there is a slight drop in temperatures but it's still way above average for the time of
07:12year generally across I think England's about seven degrees during this time of year is the
07:16average temperature and I think across Scotland is more likely around five degrees so you can see
07:21temperatures way above average for the time of year so it's still going to be a very mild Christmas
07:25day but it's likely Christmas Eve is going to be the mildest of the kind of Christmas period
07:30and even Boxing Day and Friday starting to turn a bit more towards average for the time of year
07:35but even across Scotland at times it is still going to be mild so mild cloudy but plenty of
07:41dry weather if you do have plans for Christmas Day. So speaking of the mild weather what's the
07:48kind of warmest temperature that we've seen here in the UK on Christmas Day well that record
07:53actually was across England so that was 15.6 Celsius and that was over 100 years ago recorded
08:00in Killerton in Devon so it's quite a tough record to beat we've still not actually seen across
08:06England that record being beaten yet but that is actually the warmest Christmas day
08:10that we have seen on record here in the UK but even elsewhere we've seen some pretty warm
08:15temperatures so Northern Ireland for example that's a more recent record where we got to 14.8
08:20Celsius on Christmas Day and across Scotland and Wales to Scotland also in 2016 we got to 15.1
08:27and just the year prior 15.2 in Wales so we have had some mild Christmases in the past but the one
08:34for England was over 100 years ago so yeah so that's the kind of one to beat as it were
08:41but we've also had some very cold Christmases too once again even further away England minus 18.3
08:48that was in Gainford in Durham but we can see in other areas of the UK so Northern Ireland,
08:53Scotland and Wales all the kind of coldest Christmas days we've had were in 2010 so
08:59Northern Ireland minus 17.5 Scotland minus 18.2 so similar to the England record and Wales minus
09:0716.5 so all three of these were in 2010. Similarly in 2010 we've also had the kind of deepest snow
09:16amount so in Northern Ireland 2010 we got to 17 centimetres that was in Hillsborough down
09:21and also Wales 45 centimetres is the record for the deepest snow amount on Christmas Day that
09:28was recorded obviously we have our stations here that we use at the Met Office to take these
09:32observations as a chance that in other areas we had perhaps a little bit more but this is what
09:37was recorded in Wales 45 centimetres in 2010. Also the year prior in England we did get to 43
09:44centimetres that was in 2009 and that was in North Yorkshire too so 2010 was looking like the coldest
09:51it's hit some of the coldest temperatures for Christmas Day and we've also had some of the
09:55deepest snow. So why was this then? Well lots of people here particularly in the Met Office can
10:01remember the kind of 2010 snow event it's a year where we saw quite widespread snow
10:07on Christmas Day across a very large portion of the UK. I was still studying away but I do
10:14still remember this event but I'm sure the other presenters remember as they were working here but
10:19what kind of was the reason for this? Well during sort of the middle part of December I think
10:25this was about the 15th of December this is an analysis chart from the day so we can see
10:30here's a cold front just to the south of the UK so this moved its way from the north
10:35moved its way southwards across the UK and this dragged in really cold air from the Arctic so way
10:41way north from the UK it dragged it all and it spread all across the UK so a very cold air mass
10:48was stretched across the UK at the time and you can see these black lines these dark lines there's
10:52one just to the south here and one curvy one just to the northeast too so this is where we have
10:58areas of very unstable air so like we normally see organized bands of showers here some quite
11:03cloudy conditions so this is likely where we saw plenty of these snow showers moving through
11:09moving their way from the north and stretching across the UK so we saw plenty of snow move
11:14through during this event mid-December but we also had plenty of snow just towards the end of
11:18November as well so we had snow towards the end of November snow in the middle part of December too
11:24and we had not only was there snow but it was quite widespread across the country too so
11:29we saw a lot across large portions of the country some most places did actually see some snow so for
11:35example we saw snow across southern parts of Wales we saw snow in the south of England so we saw
11:41actually 26 centimetres that was in Dunkswell and also 21 centimetres that was in south
11:47Newington in Oxfordshire too so it wasn't just that it was cold it was widespread
11:51cold temperatures and widespread snow too so many can actually remember the event of 2010 that is
11:58where we saw quite a widespread snow event particularly on Christmas Day but on Christmas
12:03Day itself here's the analysis chart for the 25th of December in 2010 we did actually have
12:09high pressure build across the country so that meant lots of settled conditions lots of sunshine
12:14around but there was still snow lying on the ground from earlier events from the end of November
12:20and through into mid-December too so lots of snow around lots of snow already lying around and still
12:26likely in the kind of arctic maritime air mass too so still most likely seeing some snow showers
12:32as we headed into as we headed into Christmas Day itself so if you were a bit disappointed
12:37that we weren't going to see a white Christmas this year well I just thought I'd show you a
12:42satellite image this was Christmas Eve during 2010 and you can see lots of white across the
12:49image and it's not cloud it's actually snow we can see plenty of snow across a large portion
12:55of the country even further south you know across parts of the southwest we can see snow across
13:00parts of Wales and still plenty across Scotland Northern Ireland too a bit more cloud in the
13:04southeast so perhaps not much not as much of a covering here but most places did see some
13:10outbreaks of snow during this 2010 event and that's why it kind of remains quite a historical
13:15event here at the Met Office and generally in meteorology and it's why many of those records
13:21were actually broken in 2010 so the coldest Christmas days and also the snowiest now just
13:27for a comparison so this was Christmas Eve or in 2010 and this is a satellite image I took earlier
13:35on Christmas Eve 2024 so you can see still lots of cloud around however yeah lots of white around
13:43but it's it's cloud there's there's no snow I'm afraid on this image and you know I've spoken
13:49about it already in terms of look that we have had lots of questions around a white Christmas
13:54and what I can show you is here we go so this is the height of the freezing level
14:04on Christmas Day so the freezing level is where if any precipitation is falling that's where it's
14:09going to freeze and fall as snow so the lower the freezing level so these more grey colours on the
14:14key here that's where the freezing level is lowest so if we see precipitation falling it could fall
14:19to slightly lower levels or the more kind of green levels is where that freezing level is higher so
14:24unlikely to see any snow if precipitation does fall if that freezing level is higher if any
14:30precipitation does fall it will fall as snow and then below this it's likely to fall as rain you
14:34can see across the country it's all green so unlikely to see a white Christmas as we've
14:40already discussed in earlier forecasts but you can see the freezing level is above 1400 meters across
14:45the country so higher than any mountain or hill across the UK so yeah we're not going to see a
14:53white Christmas I'm afraid so sorry if you're disappointed by that however what about New
14:59Year's well I'll give you a brief little forecast for New Year's however it's still a week away and
15:05there are still some uncertainties in the detail so any kind of detail is unlikely at this stage
15:13we're normally more general in terms of forecasts which are slightly further ahead however already
15:18in the headlines we have seen quite a lot of chatter about snow I think the headlines or the
15:24papers were a bit disappointed we didn't see a white Christmas and now they're focusing on New
15:27Year's UK weather map show 300 mile wall of snow bringing 10 centimeters per hour and nowhere is
15:35going to be spared it's quite dramatic isn't it it's not very Christmassy and I have a feeling
15:41they've probably had a look at something like this this is a earlier model run of our European
15:47models the EC model and of course this is just one run which does show quite a cold kind of cold
15:54air mass dragging in some rain also some snow across central and northern parts of the UK also
15:59some snow showers across Scotland too but as we know here at the Met Office and as I'm sure you're
16:05already aware in the audience is that this is just one model run of course at the Met Office we don't
16:12just look at one model run we look at quite a few we don't just look at one model either we look at
16:17quite a variety of models and then we look at trends and patterns and if there is uncertainty
16:22in the forecast we kind of look at those trends and patterns and see what the most likely outcome
16:27is and of course with a longer lead time too we already are aware that these things can change
16:33and it's likely that a forecast further out will likely change and particularly if it's just
16:40one model one model run so yes there's quite a lot out there already at the moment about New
16:45Year's weather but this is only taken from kind of just one one model one model run but I what I
16:51can tell you about New Year's is that there is a chance we could actually see something
16:55cooler on its way and if we do see that outcome so a bit more of that northerly airstream there
17:00is a chance we could see some showers and there's a chance that these could be a little bit wintry
17:04too particularly across high ground in Scotland there's also a chance we could see some rain
17:08particularly across the south so it might not necessarily be completely dry as we head into
17:12the new year so a chance of some rain and showers a chance it could turn cooler a chance it could be
17:18slightly milder in the south too kind of holding on to that mild air but as I say it's still
17:22slightly further ahead so there's a chance also that that colder air could stretch further south
17:27across the country at times too but there's too many uncertainties at this stage and it is still
17:32a week away so rather than kind of just looking at one model run or just reading a few headlines
17:38of course we'll update you daily on the weather and of course we'll talk to you about our New
17:42Year's weather in the coming days including on Friday where we do have our live show that'll
17:48include me and also Alex Burkill that's on Friday at 12.15 so I'm sure we'll have more details on
17:53the New Year's weather then and also we can answer any questions you have around Christmas and the
17:59New Year weather. So that's pretty much it for today once again I just want to finish off on a
18:05bit of festive fun so I'm afraid it's not the snowometer this time if you did enjoy that last
18:10time but I thought we'd take a look at whereabouts Santa is already of course it's moving into
18:15Christmas day across some parts of the world so he's already set off on his travels so let's see
18:21whereabouts he is. Okay let's see oh he's moving over to Christmas Island that's very convenient
18:3026 degrees that's a much better forecast than here oh look at oh look at that it's a Christmas
18:37miracle there you go there's my festive treat for you I hope you enjoyed this week's deep dive
18:44a slightly shorter one today but I'm sure you're busy with all your Christmas plans if you do
18:48celebrate this time of year as always we'll still be here daily giving you your weather updates and
18:54there is that live on Friday too and if you haven't had enough of talk about Christmas or snow there's
18:59also a new video out on YouTube which talks about white Christmases and the history around white
19:04Christmases too so if you're eager to find out more that's on YouTube and I'm sure we'll leave
19:09the link in the description too but otherwise I hope you have a lovely Christmas
19:13and happy new year that's it from me bye